Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Implications of freshwater flux data from the CMIP5 multimodel output across a set of Northern Hemisphere drainage basins
Show others and affiliations
2015 (English)In: EARTHS FUTURE, ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 3, no 6, 206-217 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) synthesizes the latest research in global climate modeling. The freshwater system on land, particularly runoff, has so far been of relatively low priority in global climate models, despite the societal and ecosystem importance of freshwater changes, and the science and policy needs for such model output on drainage basin scales. Here we investigate the implications of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble output data for the freshwater system across a set of drainage basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Results of individual models vary widely, with even ensemble mean results differing greatly from observations and implying unrealistic long-term systematic changes in water storage and level within entire basins. The CMIP5 projections of basin-scale freshwater fluxes differ considerably more from observations and among models for the warm temperate study basins than for the Arctic and cold temperate study basins. In general, the results call for concerted research efforts and model developments for improving the understanding and modeling of the freshwater system and its change drivers. Specifically, more attention to basin-scale water flux analyses should be a priority for climate model development, and an important focus for relevant model-based advice for adaptation to climate change.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 3, no 6, 206-217 p.
Keyword [en]
Freshwater system, Water fluxes, Water budget, Water change and variability, Land-atmosphere interactions, Hydro-climate
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-171903DOI: 10.1002/2014EF000296ISI: 000358142500003Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85000347807OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-171903DiVA: diva2:845406
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2009-3221
Note

QC 20150811

Available from: 2015-08-11 Created: 2015-08-10 Last updated: 2017-05-15Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Data-driven analysis of water and nutrient flows: Case of the Sava River Catchment and comparison with other regions
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Data-driven analysis of water and nutrient flows: Case of the Sava River Catchment and comparison with other regions
2017 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

A growing human population and demands for food, freshwater and energy are causing extensive changes in the water and biogeochemical cycles of river catchments around the world. Addressing and investigating such changes is particularly important for transboundary river catchments, where they impose additional risk to a region’s stability. This thesis investigates and develops data-driven methodologies for detecting hydro-climatic and nutrient load changes and their drivers with limited available data and on different catchment scales. As a specific case study, we analyze the Sava River Catchment (SRC) and compare its results with other world regions. A past–present to future evaluation of hydro-climatic data is done on the basis of a water balance approach including analysis of historic developments of land use and hydropower development data and projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) output. Using observed water discharge and nutrient concentration data, we propose a novel conceptual model for estimating and spatially resolving total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) input and delivery-retention properties for a river catchment and its nested subcatchments, as well as detection of nutrient hotspots. The thesis identifies hydroclimatic change signals of hydropower-related drivers and finds consistency with other world regions. The proposed nutrient screening methodology provides a good distinction between human-related nutrient inputs and landscape-related transport influences on nutrient loading at subcatchment to catchment scale. A cross-regional comparison of the SRC data with the Baltic region shows similarity between nutrient-relevant indicators and driving socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The study highlights a number of complexities with regard to CMIP5 model representation of water fluxes. The large intermodel range of CMIP5 future projections of fluxes calls for caution when using individual model results for assessing ongoing and future water and nutrient changes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2017. 30 p.
Series
TRITA-LWR. PHD, ISSN 1650-8602 ; 2017:03
Keyword
River catchment, Transboundary, Hydro-climatic change, Total nitrogen, Total phosphorus, CMIP5
National Category
Water Engineering
Research subject
Land and Water Resources Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-207102 (URN)978-91-7729-415-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
2017-06-08, Sal F3, Lindstedtsvägen 26, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Projects
VR 2009-3221FORMAS 2014-43
Note

QC 20170516

Available from: 2017-05-16 Created: 2017-05-15 Last updated: 2017-05-17Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Levi, Lea
By organisation
Land and Water Resources Engineering
Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 24 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf