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The influence of weather characteristics variability on individual's travel mode choice in different seasons and regions in Sweden
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7124-7164
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5290-6101
2015 (English)In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 41, 147-158 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper investigates the influence of weather on the Swedish people's mode choice decision in different seasons and regions using a long term series of the Swedish National Transport Survey datasets (NTS) and weather data from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). The weather data includes mean of daily temperature, amount of rain precipitation and road surface condition. The daily mean temperature is normalised based on each region and season and classified into five categories as 'very cold', 'cold', 'normal', 'warm', and 'very warm'. This normalisation approach enables us to investigate the impact of individual's heterogeneity in perceiving regional and seasonal variability of temperature. The impacts of these weather indicators' variability on individual's mode choice is investigated with multinomial logit models. The results show that the impacts of weather differ in different seasons and different regions. Pedestrians' perception of variation of temperature differs between those in the northern Sweden and those in the central and southern Sweden. Such perception also differs in summer and in spring and autumn. Similarly, northern Sweden cyclists are more aware of temperature variation than cyclists in the central and southern Sweden in spring and autumn when temperature changes significantly. The influence of temperature variation on motorised modes also varies among seasons and regions. However, the trend is less straightforward than that on non-motorised modes. The findings highlight the importance to incorporate individual and regional unique anticipation and adaptations behaviours within our policy design and infrastructure management.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 41, 147-158 p.
Keyword [en]
Weather changes, Regional and seasonal variability, Travel mode choice, Marginal effects
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-172498DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2015.01.001ISI: 000357349200016OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-172498DiVA: diva2:848589
Note

QC 20150825

Available from: 2015-08-25 Created: 2015-08-25 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Understanding the Impacts of Weather and Climate Change on Travel Behaviour
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Understanding the Impacts of Weather and Climate Change on Travel Behaviour
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Human behaviour produces massive greenhouse gas emissions, which trigger climate change and more unpredictable weather conditions. The fluctuation of daily weather corresponds to variations of everyday travel behaviour. This influence, although is less noticeable, can have a strong impact on the transport system. Specifically, the climate in Sweden is becoming warmer in the recent 10 years. However, it is largely unknown to what extent the change of travel behaviour would respond to the changing weather. Understanding these issues would help analysts and policy makers incorporate local weather and climate within our policy design and infrastructure management.

The thesis contains eight papers exploring the weather and climate impacts on individual travel behaviour, each addressing a subset of this topic. Paper I explores the weather impact on individual’s mode choice decisions. In paper II and III, individual’s daily activity time, number of trips/trip chains, travel time and mode shares are jointly modelled. The results highlight the importance of modelling activity-travel variables for different trip purposes respectively. Paper IV develops a namely nested multivariate Tobit model to model activity time allocation trade-offs. In paper V, the roles of weather on trip chaining complexity is explored. A thermal index is introduced to better approximate the effects of the thermal environment. In paper VI, the role of subjective weather perception is investigated. Results confirm that individuals with different socio-demographics would have different subjective weather perception even given similar weather conditions. Paper VII derives the marginal effects of weather variables on transport CO2 emissions. The findings show more CO2 emissions due to the warmer climate in the future. Paper VIII summaries the existing findings in relations between weather variability and travel behaviour, and critically assesses the methodological issues in previous studies. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2016. 217 p.
Series
TRITA-TSC-PHD, 16-005
Keyword
impacts of weather, climate change, travel survey, spatial heterogeneity, activity-travel pattern, weather perception, passenger transport CO2 emission
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-187019 (URN)978-91-87353-89-5 (ISBN)
Public defence
2016-06-10, L1, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, Lantmäteri, våningsplan 3, KTH Campus, Stockholm, 11:05 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Projects
Understanding the complexity of changes of travelers’ activity-travel choices and related transport CO2 emissions due to the variation of weather and climate in Sweden (Centre för Transport Studie, projekt kod: 446)Understanding the impacts of weather and climate change on travel behavior (Centre för Transport Studie, projekt kod: 291)
Note

QC 20160516

Available from: 2016-05-16 Created: 2016-05-16 Last updated: 2016-05-16Bibliographically approved

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Susilo, Yusak O.Karlström, Anders

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