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A comparative study of deterministic and ensemble weather forecasts for weather routing
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Aeronautical and Vehicle Engineering, Naval Systems. Seaware AB, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4008-4435
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Aeronautical and Vehicle Engineering, Naval Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3337-1900
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Aeronautical and Vehicle Engineering, Naval Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8343-5098
Seaware AB, Stockholm, Sweden..
2015 (English)In: Journal of Marine Science and Technology, ISSN 0948-4280, E-ISSN 1437-8213, Vol. 20, no 3, 429-441 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents and discusses the results of a comparison between using deterministic and ensemble weather forecasts for weather routing. The study is based on comparisons between predicted and realised performance of routes suggested by a route optimization method and focuses on two important performance factors, namely, fuel consumption and late arrival. The study is purely qualitative since the simulations do not include re-routing of the vessel as new forecasts become available. To perform the study a multi-objective dynamic programming method is tailored to the problem and implemented to perform the route optimization and a ship performance model is used to calculate the additional fuel consumption due to wind and waves acting on the ship. The results show that route optimization using ensemble weather forecasts has the potential to reduce the risk of late arrival for voyages during periods of harsh weather.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 20, no 3, 429-441 p.
Keyword [en]
Route optimization, Weather routing, Dynamic programming, Ensemble weather forecasts
National Category
Marine Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-173765DOI: 10.1007/s00773-014-0295-9ISI: 000360508200004Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84940610304OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-173765DiVA: diva2:855896
Note

QC 20150922

Available from: 2015-09-22 Created: 2015-09-18 Last updated: 2017-12-01Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Optimal weather routing using ensemble weather forecasts
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Optimal weather routing using ensemble weather forecasts
2015 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Ships small and large all battle the elements when crossing the worlds oceans.  As such, ships are designed to operate in situations with high speed winds and heavy waves.  There are however limits to what any ship can handle safely and it is thus important to avoid the worst weather systems as much as possible.  To do this ships are routed using weather data, gathered as statistical seasonal averages or numerical forecasts, in a process called weather routing.  With increased capabilities to model ship performance and seakeeping numerically, using computers, weather routing evolved to what is usually called route optimization.  In route optimization weather forecasts are used to compute  the  most  ecient  route.   How  to  determine  which  route  is  most  ecient  is  up  to  the ship  operator,  usually  some  combination  of  fuel  consumption  and  sailing  time  is  used  together with constraints related to safety.  This thesis explores the implications of unreliability in weather forecasts on route optimization and howensemble weather forecastsmay be used to improve route optimization.

In paper A a route optimization method that uses the ensemble weather forecast to compute routes is developed and tested against standard route optimization methods. The results show that routes optimized using the ensemble weather forecasts are more reliable in their predictions of fuel consumption and arrival time at the destination.

In paper B the relationship between forecast reliability and the risk of late arrival is explored through the use of arobustnessmeasure based on the ensemble weather forecast.

In paper C the research presented inpaper Bis continued and extended. The relationship between therobustnessof a route and the likelihood of late arrival is investigated. The eect of seakeeping constraints on the robustnessmeasure is explored. Finally a method of using the robustnessmeasure for route optimization is developed and tested. The results show that this method can reduce the risk of late arrival without increasing fuel consumption on average.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2015. viii, 9 p.
Series
TRITA-AVE, ISSN 1651-7660 ; 2015:87
Keyword
route optimization, ensemble weather forecasts
National Category
Vehicle Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-177332 (URN)978-91-7595-773-9 (ISBN)
Presentation
2015-12-11, Munin, Teknikringen 8, KTH, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
The Swedish Mercantile Marine Foundation
Note

QC 20151120

Available from: 2015-11-20 Created: 2015-11-18 Last updated: 2015-11-20Bibliographically approved

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Kuttenkeuler, JakobRosén, Anders

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