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Predicting human mobility with activity changes
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Geodesy and Geoinformatics.
2015 (English)In: International Journal of Geographical Information Science, ISSN 1365-8816, E-ISSN 1365-8824, Vol. 29, no 9, 1569-1587 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Human mobility patterns can provide valuable information in understanding the impact of human behavioral regularities in urban systems, usually with a specific focus on traffic prediction, public health or urban planning. While existing studies on human movement have placed huge emphasis on spatial location to predict where people go next, the time dimension component is usually being treated with oversimplification or even being neglected. Time dimension is crucial to understanding and detecting human activity changes, which play a negative role in prediction and thus may affect the predictive accuracy. This study aims to predict human movement from a spatio-temporal perspective by taking into account the impact of activity changes. We analyze and define changes of human activity and propose an algorithm to detect such changes, based on which a Markov chain model is used to predict human movement. The Microsoft GeoLife dataset is used to test our methodology, and the data of two selected users is used to evaluate the performance of the prediction. We compare the predictive accuracy (R-2) derived from the data with and without implementing the activity change detection. The results show that the R-2 is improved from 0.295 to 0.762 for the user with obvious activity changes and from 0.965 to 0.971 for the user without obvious activity changes. The method proposed by this study improves the accuracy in analyzing and predicting human movement and lays the foundation for related urban studies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
[Huang, Wei; Li, Songnian; Liu, Xintao] Ryerson Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Toronto, ON, Canada. [Ban, Yifang] Royal Inst Technol, Dept Urban Planning & Environm, Div Geoinformat, Stockholm, Sweden., 2015. Vol. 29, no 9, 1569-1587 p.
Keyword [en]
Markov chain, spatial-temporal pattern, activity change, human mobility prediction, spatio-temporal clustering
National Category
Social and Economic Geography Computer Science
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-174227DOI: 10.1080/13658816.2015.1033421ISI: 000360905500004ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84941259217OAI: diva2:860937

QC 20151014

Available from: 2015-10-14 Created: 2015-10-02 Last updated: 2015-10-14Bibliographically approved

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