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Hydroclimatic changes and drivers in the Sava River Catchment and comparison with Swedish catchments
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering.
2015 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 44, no 7, 624-634 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this study, we investigate long-term hydroclimatic changes and their possible relation to regional changes in climate, land-use and water-use over the twentieth century in the transboundary Sava River Catchment (SRC) in South Eastern Europe. In a hydropower dominated part of the SRC, unlike in an unregulated part, we find increase in average annual evapotranspiration and decrease in temporal runoff variability, which are not readily explainable by observed concurrent climate change in temperature and precipitation and may be more related to landscape-internal change drivers. Among the latter investigated here, results indicate hydropower developments as most closely related to the found hydroclimatic shifts, consistent with previous such indications in studies of Swedish hydropower catchments. Overall, the present results have quantitatively framed the recent history and present state of hydroclimate in the SRC, of relevance for water resources in several countries and for a majority of their populations. This provides a useful basis for further assessment of possible future hydroclimatic changes, under different scenarios of climate change and land/water-use developments in the region.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 44, no 7, 624-634 p.
Keyword [en]
Hydroclimatic change, Evapotranspiration, Runoff variability, Land-use, Hydropower, Sava River
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-175901DOI: 10.1007/s13280-015-0641-0ISI: 000362290300003PubMedID: 25753574Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84942983490OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-175901DiVA: diva2:867185
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2009-3221
Note

QC 20151104

Available from: 2015-11-04 Created: 2015-10-26 Last updated: 2017-12-01Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Data-driven analysis of water and nutrient flows: Case of the Sava River Catchment and comparison with other regions
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Data-driven analysis of water and nutrient flows: Case of the Sava River Catchment and comparison with other regions
2017 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

A growing human population and demands for food, freshwater and energy are causing extensive changes in the water and biogeochemical cycles of river catchments around the world. Addressing and investigating such changes is particularly important for transboundary river catchments, where they impose additional risk to a region’s stability. This thesis investigates and develops data-driven methodologies for detecting hydro-climatic and nutrient load changes and their drivers with limited available data and on different catchment scales. As a specific case study, we analyze the Sava River Catchment (SRC) and compare its results with other world regions. A past–present to future evaluation of hydro-climatic data is done on the basis of a water balance approach including analysis of historic developments of land use and hydropower development data and projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) output. Using observed water discharge and nutrient concentration data, we propose a novel conceptual model for estimating and spatially resolving total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) input and delivery-retention properties for a river catchment and its nested subcatchments, as well as detection of nutrient hotspots. The thesis identifies hydroclimatic change signals of hydropower-related drivers and finds consistency with other world regions. The proposed nutrient screening methodology provides a good distinction between human-related nutrient inputs and landscape-related transport influences on nutrient loading at subcatchment to catchment scale. A cross-regional comparison of the SRC data with the Baltic region shows similarity between nutrient-relevant indicators and driving socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The study highlights a number of complexities with regard to CMIP5 model representation of water fluxes. The large intermodel range of CMIP5 future projections of fluxes calls for caution when using individual model results for assessing ongoing and future water and nutrient changes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2017. 30 p.
Series
TRITA-LWR. PHD, ISSN 1650-8602 ; 2017:03
Keyword
River catchment, Transboundary, Hydro-climatic change, Total nitrogen, Total phosphorus, CMIP5
National Category
Water Engineering
Research subject
Land and Water Resources Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-207102 (URN)978-91-7729-415-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
2017-06-08, Sal F3, Lindstedtsvägen 26, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Projects
VR 2009-3221FORMAS 2014-43
Note

QC 20170516

Available from: 2017-05-16 Created: 2017-05-15 Last updated: 2017-05-17Bibliographically approved

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