Evaluation of Bonus-Malus systems for reducing car fleet CO2 emissions in Sweden
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Early 2014, an official Swedish government investigation report (FFF-report) was releasedproposing a policy package to promote a Fossil Free Fleet in Sweden by 2050. One objective ofthis policy package is to design a Bonus-Malus system that pushes the Swedish fleet compositiontowards the EU objectives of the average CO2 emissions of 95 g/km for new cars by 2021. Theproposed scenarios address cars bought by private persons as well as by companies. These scenariosdiffer in designs for registration tax, vehicle circulation tax, clean car premiums, company carbenefits tax and fuel tax. We use the Swedish car fleet model system to predict the effects of theproposed scenarios on the Swedish car fleet composition. Also, we build a simple supply model topredict future supply.Our model results show that none of the three proposed scenarios is actually successful enoughto meet the Swedish average CO2 emissions target of 95 g/km in 2020. The average CO2 emissionsin two of these scenarios are actually higher than in the business as usual scenario. Relative toa business as usual scenario the number of ethanol and gas cars is reduced in the other scenarioswhich is a negative result in terms of fossil fuel independence. Also, the Bonus-Malus system givesa positive net result in terms of budget effects showing that car buyers choose to pay the malus for acar with higher emissions rather than to be attracted by the bonus of a car with lower emissions.
Bonus-Malus, CO2 emission policies, car fleet modeling, vehicle supply model
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-180343OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-180343DiVA: diva2:892937
QS 20162016-01-112016-01-112016-01-15Bibliographically approved