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Evaluation of Bonus-Malus systems for reducing car fleet CO2 emissions in Sweden
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6839-8540
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4754-3147
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Early 2014, an official Swedish government investigation report (FFF-report) was releasedproposing a policy package to promote a Fossil Free Fleet in Sweden by 2050. One objective ofthis policy package is to design a Bonus-Malus system that pushes the Swedish fleet compositiontowards the EU objectives of the average CO2 emissions of 95 g/km for new cars by 2021. Theproposed scenarios address cars bought by private persons as well as by companies. These scenariosdiffer in designs for registration tax, vehicle circulation tax, clean car premiums, company carbenefits tax and fuel tax. We use the Swedish car fleet model system to predict the effects of theproposed scenarios on the Swedish car fleet composition. Also, we build a simple supply model topredict future supply.Our model results show that none of the three proposed scenarios is actually successful enoughto meet the Swedish average CO2 emissions target of 95 g/km in 2020. The average CO2 emissionsin two of these scenarios are actually higher than in the business as usual scenario. Relative toa business as usual scenario the number of ethanol and gas cars is reduced in the other scenarioswhich is a negative result in terms of fossil fuel independence. Also, the Bonus-Malus system givesa positive net result in terms of budget effects showing that car buyers choose to pay the malus for acar with higher emissions rather than to be attracted by the bonus of a car with lower emissions.

Keyword [en]
Bonus-Malus, CO2 emission policies, car fleet modeling, vehicle supply model
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-180343OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-180343DiVA: diva2:892937
Note

QS 2016

Available from: 2016-01-11 Created: 2016-01-11 Last updated: 2016-01-15Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Prediction-driven approaches to discrete choicemodels with application to forecasting car typedemand
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Prediction-driven approaches to discrete choicemodels with application to forecasting car typedemand
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Models that can predict consumer choices are essential technical support fordecision makers in many contexts. The focus of this thesis is to address predictionproblems in discrete choice models and to develop methods to increase the predictivepower of these models with application to car type choice. In this thesis we challengethe common practice of prediction that is using statistical inference to estimateand select the ‘best’ model and project the results to a future situation. We showthat while the inference approaches are powerful explanatory tools in validating theexisting theories, their restrictive theory-driven assumptions make them not tailormadefor predictions. We further explore how modeling considerations for inferenceand prediction are different.Different papers of this thesis present various aspects of the prediction problemand suggest approaches and solutions to each of them.In paper 1, the problem of aggregation over alternatives, and its effects on bothestimation and prediction, is discussed. The focus of paper 2 is the model selectionfor the purpose of improving the predictive power of discrete choice models. Inpaper 3, the problem of consistency when using disaggregate logit models for anaggregate prediction question is discussed, and a model combination is proposedas tool. In paper 4, an updated version of the Swedish car fleet model is appliedto assess a Bonus-Malus policy package. Finally, in the last paper, we present thereal world applications of the Swedish car fleet model where the sensitivity of logitmodels to the specification of choice set affects prediction accuracy.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2016. xv, 27 p.
Series
TRITA-TSC-PHD, 16:002
National Category
Social Sciences
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-180347 (URN)978-91-87353-82-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2016-02-03, Kollegiesalen, Brinellvägen 8, KTH, Stockholm, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20160115

Available from: 2016-01-15 Created: 2016-01-11 Last updated: 2016-01-15Bibliographically approved

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