Future development of electric power systems must pursue anumber of different goals. The power system should beeconomically efficient, it should provide reliable energysupply and should not damage the environment. At the same time,operation and development of the system is influenced by avariety of uncertain and random factors. The planner attemptsto find the best strategy from a large number of possiblealternatives. Thus, the complexity of the problems related topower systems planning is mainly caused by presence of multipleobjectives, uncertain information and large number ofvariables. This dissertation is devoted to consideration of themethods for development planning of a certain subsystem, i.e.the distribution network.
The dissertation first tries to formulate the networkplanning problem in general form in terms of Bayesian DecisionTheory. However, the difficulties associated with formulationof the utility functions make it almost impossible to apply theBayesian approach directly. Moreover, when approaching theproblem applying different methods it is important to considerthe concave character of the utility function. Thisconsideration directly leads to the multi-criteria formulationof the problem, since the decision is motivated not only by theexpected value of revenues (or losses), but also by theassociated risks. The conclusion is made that the difficultiescaused by the tremendous complexity of the problem can beovercome either by introducing a number of simplifications,leading to the considerable loss in precision or applyingmethods based on modifications of Monte-Carlo or fuzzyarithmetic and Genetic Algorithms (GA), or Dynamic Programming(DP).
In presence of uncertainty the planner aims at findingrobust and flexible plans to reducethe risk of considerablelosses. Several measures of risk are discussed. It is shownthat measuring risk by regret may lead to risky solutions,therefore an alternative measure - Expected Maximum Value - issuggested. The general future model, called fuzzy-probabilistictree of futures, integrates all classes of uncertain parameters(probabilistic, fuzzy and truly uncertain).
The suggested network planning software incorporates threeefficient applications of GA. The first algorithm searchessimultaneously for the whole set of Pareto optimal solutions.The hybrid GA/DP approach benefits from the global optimizationproperties of GA and local search by DP resulting in originalalgorithm with improved convergence properties. Finally, theStochastic GA can cope with noisy objective functions.
Finally, two real distribution network planning projectsdealing with primary distribution network in the large city andsecondary network in the rural area are studied.
Stockholm: Elektrotekniska system , 2001. , xiii, 208 p.
Electric power systems, electricity distribution, planning, risk management, network optimization