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Risk appraisal of passing zones on two-lane rural highways and policy applications
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
2016 (English)In: Accident Analysis and Prevention, ISSN 0001-4575, E-ISSN 1879-2057, Vol. 90, 1-12 p.Article in journal (Refereed) PublishedText
Abstract [en]

Passing on two-lane rural highways is associated with risks of head-on collision resulting from unsafe completion of passing maneuvers in the opposite traffic lane. In this paper, we explore the use of time to-collision (ITC) as a surrogate safety measure of the risk associated with passing maneuvers. Logistic regression models to predict the probability to end the passing maneuver with TTC less than 2 or 3 s-threshold were developed with the time-gap from initiation of the maneuver to arrival of the opposite vehicle (effective accepted gap), and the passing duration as explanatory variables. The data used for model estimation was collected using stationary tripod-mounted camcorders at 19 passing zones in Uganda. Results showed that passing maneuvers completed with TTC less than 3 s are unsafe and often involved sudden speed reduction, flashing headlights, and lateral shift to shoulders. Model sensitivity analysis was conducted for observed passing durations involving passenger cars or short trucks (2-3 axles), and long trucks (4-7 axles) as the passed vehicles for 3 s TTC-threshold. Three risk levels were proposed based on the probability to complete passing maneuvers with TTC less than 3 s for a range of opposite direction traffic volumes. Applications of the results for safety improvements of two-lane rural highways are also discussed. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 90, 1-12 p.
Keyword [en]
Risk, Time-to-collision, Accepted gap, Passing duration, Passing zones, Two-lane highways
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-185961DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.01.014ISI: 000373536900001PubMedID: 26874293ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84958214490OAI: diva2:926859

QC 20160510

Available from: 2016-05-10 Created: 2016-04-29 Last updated: 2016-05-16Bibliographically approved

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Koutsopoulos, Haris N.
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