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Subjective perception towards uncertainty on weather conditions and its impact on out-of-home leisure activity participation decisions
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. (Transport Systems)ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6966-9077
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7124-7164
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. (Transport Systems)
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Weather is fundamentally a ‘subjective’ perception rather than an objective measure that affects individual’s everyday travel decisions. This study uses data from a four-wave travel diary survey and aims to answer two research questions, i.e. 1. How individuals from different socio-demographic groups perceive weather. 2. How subjective weather perceptions affect individuals’ leisure activity participation decisions. Subjective weather perception and leisure activity participation are modelled in panel static/dynamic ordered Probit models. The results show that the reference thermal environment in general corresponds to the historical mean of the thermal environment. The effects of objective weather measures on subjective weather perception vary substantially between individuals. Moreover, the effect of subjective weather perception on leisure activity participation is non-linear and asymmetric. Only “very bad weather” and “very good weather” significantly influence the leisure activity participation. The effect of “very bad weather” also varies significantly between individuals. The intra-individual heterogeneity in the effect of “very good weather” has a smaller magnitude than that in the effect of “very bad weather”.

Keyword [en]
Subjective weather perception; Leisure activity participation; Intra-individual heterogeneity
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-187013OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-187013DiVA: diva2:928536
Note

QC 20160517

Available from: 2016-05-16 Created: 2016-05-16 Last updated: 2016-05-17Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Understanding the Impacts of Weather and Climate Change on Travel Behaviour
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Understanding the Impacts of Weather and Climate Change on Travel Behaviour
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Human behaviour produces massive greenhouse gas emissions, which trigger climate change and more unpredictable weather conditions. The fluctuation of daily weather corresponds to variations of everyday travel behaviour. This influence, although is less noticeable, can have a strong impact on the transport system. Specifically, the climate in Sweden is becoming warmer in the recent 10 years. However, it is largely unknown to what extent the change of travel behaviour would respond to the changing weather. Understanding these issues would help analysts and policy makers incorporate local weather and climate within our policy design and infrastructure management.

The thesis contains eight papers exploring the weather and climate impacts on individual travel behaviour, each addressing a subset of this topic. Paper I explores the weather impact on individual’s mode choice decisions. In paper II and III, individual’s daily activity time, number of trips/trip chains, travel time and mode shares are jointly modelled. The results highlight the importance of modelling activity-travel variables for different trip purposes respectively. Paper IV develops a namely nested multivariate Tobit model to model activity time allocation trade-offs. In paper V, the roles of weather on trip chaining complexity is explored. A thermal index is introduced to better approximate the effects of the thermal environment. In paper VI, the role of subjective weather perception is investigated. Results confirm that individuals with different socio-demographics would have different subjective weather perception even given similar weather conditions. Paper VII derives the marginal effects of weather variables on transport CO2 emissions. The findings show more CO2 emissions due to the warmer climate in the future. Paper VIII summaries the existing findings in relations between weather variability and travel behaviour, and critically assesses the methodological issues in previous studies. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2016. 217 p.
Series
TRITA-TSC-PHD, 16-005
Keyword
impacts of weather, climate change, travel survey, spatial heterogeneity, activity-travel pattern, weather perception, passenger transport CO2 emission
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-187019 (URN)978-91-87353-89-5 (ISBN)
Public defence
2016-06-10, L1, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, Lantmäteri, våningsplan 3, KTH Campus, Stockholm, 11:05 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Projects
Understanding the complexity of changes of travelers’ activity-travel choices and related transport CO2 emissions due to the variation of weather and climate in Sweden (Centre för Transport Studie, projekt kod: 446)Understanding the impacts of weather and climate change on travel behavior (Centre för Transport Studie, projekt kod: 291)
Note

QC 20160516

Available from: 2016-05-16 Created: 2016-05-16 Last updated: 2016-05-16Bibliographically approved

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