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Condition-based Failure Rate Modelling for Individual Components in the Power System
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electromagnetic Engineering. (Reliability Centred Asset Management (RCAM) Group)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3543-9326
2016 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The electrical power grid is one of the most important infrastructures in the modernsociety. It supplies industrial and private customers with electricity and supportsother critical infrastructures such as the water supply. Thus, it is significant that the power grid is a reliable system. However, the power system experiences a hugetransition from classical production methods such as coal and nuclear power plantsto distributed renewable energy forms such as wind energy and photovoltaic. This change to a more distributed system challenges the existing power grid as well as the traditional business models of electric utilities. Thus, cost minimization to increase profitability and improvement of the power grid to increase customer satisfactionare in the focus. One approach to increase the reliability of the grid and decrease maintenance costs is a condition-based maintenance approach which requirescondition monitoring techniques.

This thesis introduces into failure rate modelling for individual power system components and develops a method to calculate individual failure rates based onthe average failure rate, failure statistics, and condition monitoring data. This approach includes the analysis of failure statistics to identify failure causes and failure locations which are population characteristics but can be utilized to describe the heterogeneity within the population. Thus, the thesis first introduces into the topic of failure analysis and heterogeneity in populations. Different factors are identified and categorized which describe the condition development of a component overtime. Then, the literature within failure rate estimation is reviewed to present the factors which are used within failure rate modelling and to outline the existingmethods which consider the individual. However, limitations are discussed which emphasize the demand for a new approach. Consequently, this thesis introduce intoa new approach for estimating the failure rate for individual components.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2016. , 33 p.
Series
TRITA-EE, ISSN 1653-5146 ; 2016:079
Keyword [en]
Asset management, condition monitoring, diagnostic measures, failure rate, failure rate modeling, transformer diagnostics
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-187701ISBN: 978-91-7729-031-5 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-187701DiVA: diva2:931186
Presentation
2016-06-08, KTH Main Campus, Q22, Osquldas väg 6B, Stockholm, 16:08 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Projects
Energiforsk AB risk analysis program
Note

QC 20160526

Available from: 2016-05-26 Created: 2016-05-26 Last updated: 2016-10-26Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Reliability Data: A Review of Importance, Use, and Availability
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Reliability Data: A Review of Importance, Use, and Availability
Show others...
2014 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

For reliability studies of power distribution systems availability and collection of data on reliability is a key aspect. The acquirement of data can be challenging, because it endures effort and experience to know where to obtain accessible types of data. This paper gives the reader a guide to why input data to reliability analyses and asset management are useful, which data that can be obtained, and how to access the different types of data. Also, how to measure data accurately and the quality needed are discussed in the paper.

After a general discussion on the benefits of data, we discuss the importance of knowing exactly what the data are measurements of. Furthermore, we argue that data from different contexts, even if seemingly similar, should be used with care. We also state and explain that the amount data restrict the type of analysis that can be conducted. The paper continues with a description of some examples of (to different degrees) open accessible data. Nationally collected reliability data from Swedish utilities, reported to authorities and interest organizations, are described and discussed. We discuss how Swedish weather data, which recently have become free and open, enable more studies on the weather related reliability effects, and some existing test systems are mentioned. A section follows that describes how failure and condition data are typically stored and utilized internally in organizations. Finally, we conclude that the paper is a potential guide and inspiration for anyone planning to conduct a reliability study in the future.

Series
Elforsk rapport 14:32
Keyword
Asset management, DARWin, Data management, Input data, Reliability analysis, Weather Data
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-151014 (URN)
Conference
NORDAC 2014 (Eleventh Nordic Conference on Electricity Distribution System Management and Development, Stockholm, 8 - 9 September 2014)
Note

QC 20140922

Available from: 2014-09-12 Created: 2014-09-12 Last updated: 2016-05-26Bibliographically approved
2. TOWARDS HEALTH ASSESSMENT: FAILURE ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATION OF CONDITION MONITORING TECHNIQUES FOR LARGE DISCONNECTOR POPULATIONS
Open this publication in new window or tab >>TOWARDS HEALTH ASSESSMENT: FAILURE ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATION OF CONDITION MONITORING TECHNIQUES FOR LARGE DISCONNECTOR POPULATIONS
2016 (English)In: CIRED Workshop - Helsinki 14-15 June 2016, Helsinki, 2016, 4- p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Condition monitoring of power system equipment is an important part of asset management. Hence, health indices were developed to describe the equipment condition in a linguistic form with the obtained data. The development of health indices requires knowledge about the equipment population under investigation to consider all important factors. Therefore, this paper investigates the failure data of a large disconnector population to identify population characteristics such as failure modes and failure locations. The analysis showed that the functions maneuverability and current carrying are essential to monitor. Moreover, this paper discusses condition monitoring techniques for disconnector and their applicability in large populations. The paper concludes that even without cost intensive investments in condition measurements or higher preventive maintenance costs, a condition evaluation can be performed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Helsinki: , 2016
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering; Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-187703 (URN)
Conference
CIRED Workshop 2016
Note

QC 20160526

Available from: 2016-05-26 Created: 2016-05-26 Last updated: 2016-05-26Bibliographically approved
3. A Review and Discussion of Failure Rate Heterogeneity in Power System Reliability Assessment
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Review and Discussion of Failure Rate Heterogeneity in Power System Reliability Assessment
2016 (English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The failure rate is a reliability measure which isused for planning and operation of the power system. Thus far, average or experience based failure rates were applied to power system equipment due to their straightforward implementation. However, this approach limits the accuracy of the gained resultsand neglects the important differentiation between populationand individual failure rates. Hence, this paper discusses and demonstrates the necessity to distinguish between populationand individual failure rates and reviews the existing literature offailure rate estimation within the power system domain. The literature is categorized into statistical data driven approaches and failure rate modelling with focus on different criteria whichcan be used to describe the heterogeneity within populations. The review reveals that the environmental impact was modelled predominantly.

Keyword
failure rate modelling; heterogeneity; individual failure rate; relative risk model
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-194408 (URN)978-1-5090-1970-0 (ISBN)
Conference
Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 2016 International Conference on, Beijing
Note

Submitted to 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Appliedto Power Systems, PMAPS 2016

QC 20161026

Available from: 2016-10-26 Created: 2016-10-26 Last updated: 2016-10-26Bibliographically approved
4. Individual failure rates for transformers within a population based on diagnostic measures
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Individual failure rates for transformers within a population based on diagnostic measures
2016 (English)In: Electric power systems research, ISSN 0378-7796, E-ISSN 1873-2046, Vol. 141, 354-362 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The high monetary value of a transformer has placed the transformer life-time optimization into the focus of asset management. The average failure rate has created reasonable results within reliability modeling, however, it cannot reflect the probability of failure for an individual transformer. In this paper, a method is introduced to calculate individual failure rates for a transformer population based on failure statistics and diagnostic measurements such as dissolved gas, and 2-furfuraldehyde analysis. The method is applicable to all types of components and the comprehensibility makes it effective for practical implementation. The results are evaluated against two health indices based on a weight factor and fuzzy logic. It can be observed that the presented individual failure rates are plausible representatives of the transformer's probability of failure. Therefore, the results can also be utilized for asset management decision-making.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016
Keyword
Asset management; Condition monitoring; Diagnostic measures; Failure rate; Failure rate modeling; Health index
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-192290 (URN)10.1016/j.epsr.2016.08.015 (DOI)2-s2.0-84984984238 (Scopus ID)
External cooperation:
Note

QC 20160912

Available from: 2016-09-08 Created: 2016-09-08 Last updated: 2017-11-21Bibliographically approved
5. A Scorecard Approach to Track Reliability Performance of Distribution System Operators
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Scorecard Approach to Track Reliability Performance of Distribution System Operators
2015 (English)In: CIRED 2015: 23rd International Conference on Electricity Distribution, CIRED - Congrès International des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution, 2015Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Firstly, this paper reviews the current process of reporting reliability data in Sweden. Limitations of reliability indices such as SAIDI and SAIFI are discussed and the need for more reliability measures is stated. The paper suggests the introduction of a reliability performance scorecard to analyse reliability measures in an organized system under different aspects. Furthermore, a set of measurements is provided that can be used to assess a utility’s reliability performance. The use of the scorecard is discussed and its applicability for implementing and tracking regulations. This would result in a better policy-making and a decreased pressure on electric utilities due to a higher understanding of what companies invest to achieve a reliable supply of energy.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
CIRED - Congrès International des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution, 2015
Keyword
Scorecard, Reliability Performance, Distribution System Operator
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering; Business Studies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-172843 (URN)
Conference
23rd International Conference on Electricity Distribution - CIRED Lyon, 15-18 June 2015
Note

QC 20151015

Available from: 2015-08-31 Created: 2015-08-31 Last updated: 2016-05-26Bibliographically approved

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Jürgensen, Jan Henning

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