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Climate Impact Modeling of Hydrological Inflow into the Swedish Power Market
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Numerical Analysis, NA.
2016 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Klimatpåverkan på hydrologiskt inflöde till den svenska elmarknaden (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

Hydrological inflow, in the form of rainfall and snowmelt, has a great impact on electricity prices in hydro-dominated energy markets such as that of Sweden. As power market participants prepare to meet the challenges of a range of climate change scenarios, such as a two-degree rise in mean global temperature, information about changing inflow patterns is increasingly important. To investigate such changes, we implement the open-source model HYPE on sub-basins making up the bulk of Swedish hydroelectric power production. We analyze the near-future inflows produced by our HYPE implementation when driven by regional climate model data. Thus we derive the changing inflow- response under specific climate-change scenarios. We find a general departure from the traditional inflow pattern, including significant changes in spring flood dynamics. These changes are analyzed at the national-level, and in the four price areas which make up the Swedish contribution to the Nordic power market.

Abstract [sv]

Hydrologiskt inflöde, i form av nederbörd och snösmältning, har stor betydelse för den svenska elmarknaden. För att kunna förbereda sig inför framtida klimatförändringar är det viktigt att studera hur det traditionella inflödesmönstret påverkas av klimatscenarier, såsom en två-graders höjning av den globala medeltemperaturen. För att undersöka dessa ändringar ställer vi upp en vattenballansmodell skräddarsydd för den svenska elmarknaden. Vi simulerar sedan inflöden framåt i tiden med hjälp av klimatdata från två olika utsläppsscenarier. När vi analyserar de simulerade inflödena hittar vi en generell avvikelse från den traditionella vårflodsdynamiken. Denna avvikelse beskrivs på nationell nivå samt i de fyra svenska elområden.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
TRITA-MAT-E, 2016:41
National Category
Computational Mathematics
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-189030OAI: diva2:942722
Subject / course
Scientific Computing
Educational program
Master of Science - Applied and Computational Mathematics
Available from: 2016-06-26 Created: 2016-06-26 Last updated: 2016-07-11Bibliographically approved

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