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Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. SWECO, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3043-8145
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9235-0232
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4531-8659
2016 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 94, 266-277 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper explores the accuracy of the transport model forecast of the Gothenburg congestion charges, implemented in 2013. The design of the charging system implies that the path disutility cannot be computed as a sum of link attributes. The route choice model is therefore implemented as a hierarchical algorithm, applying a continuous value of travel time (VTT) distribution. The VTT distribution was estimated from stated choice (SC) data. However, based on experience of impact forecasting with a similar model and of impact outcome of congestion charges in Stockholm, the estimated VTT distribution had to be stretched to the right. We find that the forecast traffic reductions across the cordon and travel time gains were close to those observed in the peak. However, the reduction in traffic across the cordon was underpredicted off-peak. The necessity to make the adjustment indicates that the VTT inferred from SC data does not reveal the travellers’ preferences, or that there are factors determining route choice other than those included in the model: travel distance, travel time and congestion charge.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016. Vol. 94, 266-277 p.
Keyword [en]
Congestion charges, Decision support, Transport model, Validation, Value of time, Volume delay function
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-190863DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2016.09.016ISI: 000389089700019Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84989328016OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-190863DiVA: diva2:953321
Note

QC 20170201

Available from: 2016-08-17 Created: 2016-08-17 Last updated: 2017-02-01Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Modelling and Appraisal in Congested Transport Networks
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modelling and Appraisal in Congested Transport Networks
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Appraisal methodologies for congestion mitigation projects are relatively less well developed compared to methodologies for projects reducing free flow travel times. For instance, static assignment models are incapable of representing the build-up and dissipation of traffic queues, or capturing the experienced crowding caused by uneven on-board passenger loads. Despite the availability of dynamic traffic assignment, only few model systems have been developed for cost-benefit analysis of real applications. The six included papers present approaches and tools for analysing traffic and transit projects where congestion relief is the main target.

In the transit case studies, we use an agent-based simulation model to analyse congestion and crowding effects and to conduct cost-benefit analyses. In the case study of a metro extension in Stockholm, we demonstrate that congestion and crowding effects constitute more than a third of the total benefits and that a conventional static model underestimates these effects vastly. In another case study, we analyse various operational measures and find that the three main measures (boarding through all doors, headway-based holding and bus lanes) had an overall positive impact on service performance and that synergetic effects exist.

For the congestion charging system in Gothenburg, we demonstrate that a hierarchal route choice model with a continuous value of time distribution gives realistic predictions of route choice effects although the assignment is static. We use the model to show that the net social benefit of the charging system in Gothenburg is positive, but that low income groups pay a larger share of their income than high income groups. To analyse congestion charges in Stockholm however, integration of dynamic traffic assignment with the demand model is necessary, and we demonstrate that this is fully possible.

Models able to correctly predict these effects highlight the surprisingly large travel time savings of pricing policies and small operational measures. These measures are cheap compared to investments in new infrastructure and their implementation can therefore lead to large societal gains.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2016
Series
TRITA-TSC-PHD, 16:007
Keyword
Transport modelling, Transit Assignment, Appraisal, Congestion, Crowding, Cost-benefit analysis, Value of time, Congestion charge, Dynamic traffic assignment
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-190866 (URN)978-91-87353-92-5 (ISBN)
External cooperation:
Public defence
2016-09-30, L1, KTH, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20160829

Available from: 2016-08-29 Created: 2016-08-17 Last updated: 2016-08-30Bibliographically approved

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Citation style
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