Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Modelling and Appraisal in Congested Transport Networks
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. Sweco, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3043-8145
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Appraisal methodologies for congestion mitigation projects are relatively less well developed compared to methodologies for projects reducing free flow travel times. For instance, static assignment models are incapable of representing the build-up and dissipation of traffic queues, or capturing the experienced crowding caused by uneven on-board passenger loads. Despite the availability of dynamic traffic assignment, only few model systems have been developed for cost-benefit analysis of real applications. The six included papers present approaches and tools for analysing traffic and transit projects where congestion relief is the main target.

In the transit case studies, we use an agent-based simulation model to analyse congestion and crowding effects and to conduct cost-benefit analyses. In the case study of a metro extension in Stockholm, we demonstrate that congestion and crowding effects constitute more than a third of the total benefits and that a conventional static model underestimates these effects vastly. In another case study, we analyse various operational measures and find that the three main measures (boarding through all doors, headway-based holding and bus lanes) had an overall positive impact on service performance and that synergetic effects exist.

For the congestion charging system in Gothenburg, we demonstrate that a hierarchal route choice model with a continuous value of time distribution gives realistic predictions of route choice effects although the assignment is static. We use the model to show that the net social benefit of the charging system in Gothenburg is positive, but that low income groups pay a larger share of their income than high income groups. To analyse congestion charges in Stockholm however, integration of dynamic traffic assignment with the demand model is necessary, and we demonstrate that this is fully possible.

Models able to correctly predict these effects highlight the surprisingly large travel time savings of pricing policies and small operational measures. These measures are cheap compared to investments in new infrastructure and their implementation can therefore lead to large societal gains.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2016.
Series
TRITA-TSC-PHD, 16:007
Keyword [en]
Transport modelling, Transit Assignment, Appraisal, Congestion, Crowding, Cost-benefit analysis, Value of time, Congestion charge, Dynamic traffic assignment
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-190866ISBN: 978-91-87353-92-5 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-190866DiVA: diva2:953426
Public defence
2016-09-30, L1, KTH, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20160829

Available from: 2016-08-29 Created: 2016-08-17 Last updated: 2016-08-30Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. A dynamic stochastic model for evaluating congestion and crowding effects in transit systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A dynamic stochastic model for evaluating congestion and crowding effects in transit systems
2016 (English)In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 89, 43-57 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

One of the most common motivations for public transport investments is to reduce congestion and increase capacity. Public transport congestion leads to crowding discomfort, denied boardings and lower service reliability. However, transit assignment models and appraisal methodologies usually do not account for the dynamics of public transport congestion and crowding and thus potentially underestimate the related benefits. This study develops a method to capture the benefits of increased capacity by using a dynamic and stochastic transit assignment model. Using an agent-based public transport simulation model, we dynamically model the evolution of network reliability and on-board crowding. The model is embedded in a comprehensive framework for project appraisal.A case study of a metro extension that partially replaces an overloaded bus network in Stockholm demonstrates that congestion effects may account for a substantial share of the expected benefits. A cost-benefit analysis based on a conventional static model will miss more than a third of the benefits. This suggests that failure to represent dynamic congestion effects may substantially underestimate the benefits of projects, especially if they are primarily intended to increase capacity rather than to reduce travel times.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016
Keyword
Agent-based simulation, Capacity, Cost-benefit analysis, Dynamic congestion, Transit assignment, Cost benefit analysis, Cost effectiveness, Mass transportation, Stochastic systems, Travel time, Agent based simulation, Crowding effects, Network reliability, Public transport, Service reliability, Transit systems, Stochastic models
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-186912 (URN)10.1016/j.trb.2016.04.001 (DOI)000379281900003 ()2-s2.0-84963517880 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20160516

Available from: 2016-05-16 Created: 2016-05-16 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
2. Modelling transit user adaptation and learning
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modelling transit user adaptation and learning
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-190862 (URN)
External cooperation:
Note

QC 20160829

Available from: 2016-08-17 Created: 2016-08-17 Last updated: 2016-08-29Bibliographically approved
3. Individual and Synergetic Effects of Transit Service Improvement Strategies: Simulation and Validation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Individual and Synergetic Effects of Transit Service Improvement Strategies: Simulation and Validation
2017 (English)In: Journal of transportation engineering, ISSN 0733-947X, E-ISSN 1943-5436, Vol. 143, no 6Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Assessment of transit service improvements such as bus lanes, allowing boarding through all doors, and headway-based holding control requires detailed simulation capabilities. However, because the usage of models advanced enough to simultaneously analyze physical and operational measures has been limited, their validity has hitherto remained low. This paper assesses the implementation of several bus service improvement measures in a simulation model. The paper analyzes the effect of isolated and combinations of measures, and validates the model using field experiment data. The model predicted travel time improvements accurately (1–2% difference), while overestimating some of the headway variability effects. The three tested measures exercised negative synergy effects, with their combined effect being smaller than the sum of their marginal contributions, except for headway-based holding, which exercised positive synergy effects with the two other measures.

National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-168295 (URN)10.1061/JTEPBS.0000095 (DOI)
Funder
Stockholm County Council
Note

QC 20150601

Available from: 2015-06-01 Created: 2015-06-01 Last updated: 2017-10-10Bibliographically approved
4. Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges
2016 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 94, 266-277 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper explores the accuracy of the transport model forecast of the Gothenburg congestion charges, implemented in 2013. The design of the charging system implies that the path disutility cannot be computed as a sum of link attributes. The route choice model is therefore implemented as a hierarchical algorithm, applying a continuous value of travel time (VTT) distribution. The VTT distribution was estimated from stated choice (SC) data. However, based on experience of impact forecasting with a similar model and of impact outcome of congestion charges in Stockholm, the estimated VTT distribution had to be stretched to the right. We find that the forecast traffic reductions across the cordon and travel time gains were close to those observed in the peak. However, the reduction in traffic across the cordon was underpredicted off-peak. The necessity to make the adjustment indicates that the VTT inferred from SC data does not reveal the travellers’ preferences, or that there are factors determining route choice other than those included in the model: travel distance, travel time and congestion charge.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016
Keyword
Congestion charges, Decision support, Transport model, Validation, Value of time, Volume delay function
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-190863 (URN)10.1016/j.tra.2016.09.016 (DOI)000389089700019 ()2-s2.0-84989328016 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20170201

Available from: 2016-08-17 Created: 2016-08-17 Last updated: 2017-11-28Bibliographically approved
5. The Gothenburg congestion charges: CBA and equity
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Gothenburg congestion charges: CBA and equity
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-190864 (URN)
External cooperation:
Note

QC 20160829

Available from: 2016-08-17 Created: 2016-08-17 Last updated: 2016-08-29Bibliographically approved
6. Integration of dynamic traffic assignment with a travel demand model for the Stockholm region
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Integration of dynamic traffic assignment with a travel demand model for the Stockholm region
Show others...
2014 (English)Conference paper, Oral presentation only (Other academic)
Publisher
112 p.
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-168292 (URN)
Conference
DTA 2014 conference in Salerno, Italy
Note

QC 20150601

Available from: 2015-06-01 Created: 2015-06-01 Last updated: 2016-08-25Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(353 kB)76 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT02.pdfFile size 353 kBChecksum SHA-512
a630cb6f6ecf343d5b87da00b4392e1a83ea43184644388e6a9e8c213f83b41815108c440afc6e8b572b5458ccdb8973440b352a312a6de619965d2e6009965f
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Authority records BETA

West, Jens

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
West, Jens
By organisation
Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering
Transport Systems and Logistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 79 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

isbn
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

isbn
urn-nbn
Total: 446 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf