Potential goal conflicts related to climate change mitigation strategies generated through backcasting scenarios
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
In planning for mitigating future climate change, different options and strategies have to be considered. Scenarios are a useful strategy for exploring such options, particularly in collaboration with stakeholders. However, measures generated through scenarios that are opted for achieving one particular target, such as mitigation, can have important implications for the achievability of other goals and policies. When the implementation of a measure makes it more difficult to fulfil some other goal that the decision maker aims to achieve, a conflict arises between these goals. To this date, scenarios presenting/suggesting options for attaining mitigation targets deal mostly with illustrations of future states in which the targets are fulfilled, and/or measures and changes for achieving these targets. Conflicts that scenario generated measures and changes could impose on other policy goals have not been analysed and neither have synergies between goals. The purpose of this paper is to identify potential goal conflicts and synergies as potential consequences of four future scenarios assuming zero CO2 emissions 2060, and discuss strategies for dealing with such conflicts. The scenarios were developed for rural land use in Sweden, and an analysis of potential goal conflicts, with relevance for Swedish climate change mitigation processes was made. We have focused on the Swedish environmental goals. We present the analysis of goal conflicts and synergies that could arise in the context of climate change mitigation, we discuss potential strategies for addressing them, and we point at research needs that have to be addressed if we are to better understand how to produce scenarios that can inform climate change mitigation policies, but with less risk of imposing on other policy goals.
Goal conflicts, synergies, climate change mitigation, land use, policy, scenarios.
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-191517OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-191517DiVA: diva2:957150
FunderSwedish Research Council FormasSwedish Environmental Protection Agency
QC 201609302016-09-012016-09-012016-09-02Bibliographically approved