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  • 1.
    Van der Voorn, Tom
    et al.
    Institute of Environmental Systems ResearchUniversity of OsnabrückOsnabrückGermany.
    Sundkvist, Åsa
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Strategic Sustainability Studies.
    Edvardsson Björnberg, Karin
    Philosophy and History, KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy and History of Technology, Philosophy.
    Fauré, Eléonore
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Strategic Sustainability Studies.
    Milestad, Rebecka
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Strategic Sustainability Studies.
    Towards multi-target backcasting approach for robust climate change mitigation strategies: A Swedish case study on an environmental assessment of climate mitigation scenarios.Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In the face of climate change, a major challenge for policy makers is to develop robust scenario-based strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation options. This paper presents a novel approach for environmental assessment of climate change mitigation scenarios. Scenarios, and particularly backcasting scenarios, are often used as a strategy for exploring options and measures for achieving environmental targets, such as climate change mitigation. Measures and options generated through backcasting scenarios are often opted for achieving one particular target and such scenarios are seldom assessed in relation to other environmental aspects. This limits the achievability of other goals and policies. When the implementation of a measure makes it more difficult to fulfil some other goal that the decision maker aims to achieve, a conflict arises between these goals. This paper presents a qualitative environmental assessment of scenarios that identifies conflicts and synergies in regard to a broad range of environmental targets. The method is illustrated in an assessment of four future scenarios assuming zero greenhouse gas emissions 2060 in relation to a variety of environmental aspects, operationalized in policy goals. The scenarios concern rural land use in Sweden, and the goals were the Swedish environmental goals. In this paper potential goal conflicts and synergies that could arise if the strategies and developments in the scenarios were to be realised are analysed. We discuss the assessment and point at research needs that have to be addressed if we are to understand how to better assess

    1

    environmental goal conflicts, and produce scenario outcomes that can inform specific policies, but with less risk of imposing on fulfilment of other policy goals.

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