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  • 1.
    Ahmad Termida, Nursitihazlin
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics. Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Department of Infrastructure and Geomatic Engineering.
    Susilo, Yusak
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Attrition and Fatigue in a Four Waves of Two-Week Travel Diary: A Case Study in Stockholm, SwedenManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper describes a four-wave panel survey design and implementation collected on individual level, consisting of three survey’s instrument namely, self-reported two-week travel diary, on-line psychological questionnaire, and self-reported mental map-related questions. The panel survey is built with the aim to examine individuals’ behavioural changes when a new tram extension line in western sub-urban areas of Stockholm, Sweden, was introduced in October 2013. The survey duration took approximately seven months’ period and the data collected covers all four different seasons of the year, which make it wealth of information. The analysis of attrition and fatigue was done on the two-week travel diary survey instrument only. It is found that the overall attrition rate is 34.3% of the total participants (102 individuals) in the Wave 1 survey, which is considered large. The attrition rate between consecutive waves, however, is considered low which is within the range of 7% to 10%. Based on the binary logit models, there are no systematic tendencies of the dropouts’ characteristics from wave to wave to be found, indicating attrition is purely random. There is no correlation between immobile days and missing trips per day are to be found between-waves. The results of the binary logit model on missing trip show that personal attributes, temporal factors (e.g. weekdays and waves) and travel characteristics (e.g. home-based trip, trip purpose, travel distance and number of inter-modal transfers) significantly affect the missing trip but no indication of fatigue appears.

  • 2.
    Ahmad Termida, Nursitihazlin
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics. Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Department of Infrastructure and Geomatic Engineering.
    Susilo, Yusak
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Subjective Factors Influencing Individual's Response to a New Public Transport ServiceManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The timing and nature of people’s responses can be expected to vary when a new element enter their environment. For example, when an individual is provided with a new or modified transport service. This time-scale of behavioural responses will affect the patronage of, and short- and long-term demands on the new service over time. Understanding the underlying factors that influence an individual’s response over time to a new or modified transport service would enable us to identify trigger factors that make the new service attractive from an individual’s point of view. Chatterjee (2001) and Douglas (2003) argued that motives other than instrumental factors related to public transport use, such as attitudes, awareness, travel habits and learning processes, can influence individual responses over time to changes in the travel environment. Unfortunately, despite their importance, there have been few studies that examined this argument empirically. To address this research gap, this paper aims to investigate the influences of subjective factors on individuals’ responses to the introduction of a modified public transport (PT) service over time by proposing and testing an alternative model that modifies the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) model framework. This paper also aims to investigate the behavioural change in terms of attitudes and perceptions on individuals’ resources and constraints in using a modified PT service over time after its introduction. The case study involves the new extension of a tram line connecting the suburbs of Alvik and Solna Centrum in Stockholm, Sweden. Four waves of a panel survey were conducted with 96 individuals who lived along the new service, from just before the new service was introduced and until seven months after its introduction. A structural equation modelling technique was used to estimate the relationships between behavioural constructs and panel data, then incorporate them into a discrete choice model. The results show that intention influences individual’s quick-response choice. The panel analysis shows that past behaviour in using the new service influenced current behaviour, and that perceived walking distance in using the service consistently influenced the frequency of using the new service over time.

  • 3.
    Ahmad Termida, Nursitihazlin
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics. Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Department of Infrastructure and Geomatic Engineering.
    Susilo, Yusak
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Liu, Chengxi
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics. VTI.
    Understanding Seasonal Variation in Individual's Activity Participation and Trip Generation by Using Four Consecutive Two-Week Travel DiaryManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper explores the interactions between travel demand, time allocation and mode choice in different seasons by jointly modeling the work and/or study, routine and leisure activity-travel engagements of 67 individuals in Stockholm, Sweden. A longitudinal panel two-week travel diary data collected in four consecutive waves over a span of seven months period that covers all four different seasons; autumn, winter, spring and summer, were analysed by using simultaneous Tobit models. The model was applied to explore the interactions among each activity-travel indicator, and individuals’ unique characteristics and endogeneity in activity-travel engagements between different seasons were also considered in the model system. The results of models reveal clear trade-offs between mandatory activities (work and/or study) and non-mandatory activities (routine and leisure), regardless of any seasons, although the magnitudes vary between seasons. There is also a positive mutual endogeneity relationship between number of trips and activity duration within the same activity type. The trade-offs between work and/or study trips towards routine and leisure trips are larger in winter and spring respectively, than in other seasons. It is also found that mode effects on travel time for conducting mandatory activity are much larger in spring than in other seasons. However, the effects of public transport and slow modes on travel time for leisure activities are much larger in summer than in other seasons.

  • 4.
    Ahmad Termida, Nursitihazlin
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Susilo, Yusak
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Franklin, Joel P.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Examining the effects of out-of-home and in-home constraints on leisure activity participation in different seasons of the year2016In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, p. 1-25Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Using multi-day, multi-period travel diaries data of 56 days (four waves of two-week diaries) for 67 individuals in Stockholm, this study aims to examine the effects of out-of-home and in-home constraints (e.g. teleworking, studying at home, doing the laundry, cleaning and taking care of other household member[s]) on individuals’ day-to-day leisure activity participation decisions in four different seasons. This study also aims to explore the effects of various types of working schedules (fixed, shift, partial- and full-flexible) on individuals’ decisions to participate in day-to-day leisure activities. A pooled model (56 days) and wave-specific models (14 days in each wave) are estimated by using dynamic ordered Probit models. The effects of various types of working schedules are estimated by using 28 days of two waves’ data. The results show that an individual’s leisure activity participation decision is significantly influenced by out-of-home work durations but not influenced by in-home constraints, regardless of any seasons. Individuals with shift working hours engage less in day-to-day leisure activities than other workers’ types in both spring and summer seasons. The thermal indicator significantly affects individuals’ leisure activity participation decisions during the autumn season. Individuals exhibit routine behaviour characterized by repeated decisions in participating in day-to-day leisure activities that can last up to 14 days, regardless of any seasons.

  • 5.
    Ahmad Termida, Nursitihazlin
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Susilo, Yusak O.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Franklin, Joel P.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Observing dynamic behavioural responses due to the extension of a tram line by using panel survey2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 86, p. 78-95Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Using a four-wave panel survey of individuals' trips and psychological attributes collected among residents along a new tram line extension in the city of Stockholm, Sweden, this study aims to investigate factors that determine the individuals' learning and decision-making processes in using a new transport option. This includes investigating which group of travellers have used the new tram extension earlier than others, and integrated the tram extension as a part of their daily travel patterns. This paper also describes the design and construction of the four-wave panel data collection, which was collected from two weeks before and up to seven months after the opening of the new option. Descriptive analysis shows that within a seven-month period, 79% of the respondents tried the new tram extension but only 14.9% of them adopted the new option as their daily travel mode. During the observed period, about 49.3% of the respondents migrated between travel modes for non-discretionary trips. Further multivariate analysis shows that middle-income travellers and travellers who owned car(s) used the new tram extension earlier than others. The effect of past experience on the current use of the tram extension on a day-to-day basis was also examined by using a mixed logit model with panel data. The purpose of the model is to examine whether individuals' daily experiences with the new tram extension that result from repeated previous choices would affect their decisions to maintain using the new option in subsequent waves.

  • 6.
    Bergman, Klara
    et al.
    KTH.
    Gadda, T.
    Franklin, Joel P.
    KTH.
    Kozievitch, N. P.
    The relationship between timing of development and bus rapid transit2017In: Proceedings of the 3rd ACM SIGSPATIAL Workshop on Smart Cities and Urban Analytics, UrbanGIS 2017, Association for Computing Machinery (ACM), 2017Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The city of Curitiba in southern Brazil is considered to be the cradle of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system. Curitiba has a population of around 1.9 million people and has a higher development index than Brazil in general. A master plan approved in the middle of the 1960’s has guided the development of the city in a Transit Oriented Development (TOD) direction by zoning for high development densities close to the five BRT trunk lines in so-called structural development in Curitiba.The objective was to examine if the BRT system could have been a motivator for property development, and if so, to what extend. This paper presents a perspective to examine property development: Timing of Development, as the relationship between the number of years after construction of BRT lines buildings were constructed, and the distances of these buildings from the BRT lines. Results from the entire BRT system showed that a greater "time lag" of property development following BRT development also meant that the property in question was located further away from a BRT line, suggesting that areas close to the BRT were popular.

  • 7.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Valuation of Travel Time Variability in Scheduling versus Mean-Variance Models2010In: Proceedings of the 2010 World Conference on Transport Research, 2010Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 8.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Valuations of travel time variability in scheduling versus mean-variance models2012In: Transportation Research Part B, ISSN 0191-2615, Vol. 46, no 7, p. 855-873Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The standard method of estimating the value of travel time variability for use in policy appraisal is to estimate the parameters of a reduced-form utility function, where some measure of travel time variability (such as the standard deviation) is included. A problem with this approach is that the obtained valuation will in general depend on the standardized travel time distribution, and hence cannot be transferred from one context to another. A recently suggested remedy for this problem has been to estimate a scheduling model, which in theory is transferrable, and use the implied reduced-form to derive valuations for use in appraisal. In this paper we estimate both a scheduling model and the implied reduced-form model, using stated choice data. The valuation of travel time variability implied by the scheduling model turns out to be substantially smaller than what is obtained from a reduced-form model estimated on the same sample. The results suggest that the scheduling model does not capture all of the disutility arising from travel time variability. Hence, although it can be shown that scheduling and reduced-form models are theoretically equivalent, that hypothesized equivalence is not reflected in the empirical evidence. We speculate that the derivation of reduced-form models from an underlying scheduling model omits two essential features: first, the notion of an exogenously fixed "preferred arrival time" neglects the fact that most activities can be rescheduled given full information about the travel times in advance, and second, disutility may be derived from uncertainty as such, in the form of anxiety, decisions costs or costs for having contingency plans. We also report our estimates of the valuation of travel time variability for public transit trips, for use in applied appraisal.

  • 9.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    et al.
    Tecnical University of Denmark.
    Engelson, Leonid
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Endogenous scheduling preferences and random travel time2012Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 10.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Engelson, Leonid
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Franklin, Joel P.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Commuting for meetings2014In: Journal of Urban Economics, ISSN 0094-1190, E-ISSN 1095-9068, Vol. 81, p. 104-113Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Urban congestion causes travel times to exhibit considerable variability, which leads to coordination problems when people have to meet. We analyze a game for the timing of a meeting between two players who must each complete a trip of random duration to reach the meeting, which does not begin until both are present. Players prefer to depart later and also to arrive sooner, provided they do not have to wait for the other player. We find a unique Nash equilibrium, and a continuum of Pareto optima that are strictly better than the Nash equilibrium for both players. Pareto optima may be implemented as Nash equilibria by penalty or compensation schemes.

  • 11.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Congestion and Travel Time Reliability: Comparing a Random Bottleneck to Empirical Data2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 12.
    Franklin, Joel
    University of Washington.
    Flexibility in Household Responses to Congestion Pricing: Implications for Equity2007Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 13.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Modeling Lateness2009Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 14.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Modelling Reliability as Expected Lateness: A Schedule-Based Approach for User Benefit Analysis2009In: 2009 Proceedings European Transport Conference, 2009Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As evidenced by recent studies, travel time reliability forms a substantial portion of traveler preferences and of the costs or benefits of transport policies. This paper describes how new theoretical developments have provided the means to estimate the value of travel time reliability improvements under schedule-theoretic traveler preferences at the same time. In order to help bring these theories into practice, tools are needed to predict the relevant features of a travel time distribution. This paper has examined some empirical data for “mean lateness”, an important component of travel time reliability under scheduling behavior, and estimated a model of the absolute mean lateness that can be used in conjunction with a model of mean travel times to produce a complete valuation. The findings show that the model, while showing significant results, only partially explains variations in mean lateness, and can be subject to large bias in certain cases.

  • 15.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Reflecting Equity in the Measurement of Accessibility2008Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 16.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Role of Context in Equity Effects of Congestion Pricing2012In: Transportation Research Record, ISSN 0361-1981, E-ISSN 2169-4052, no 2297, p. 29-37Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The equity effects of congestion pricing have come into focus as a potential hindrance to its acceptability in implementation around the world. Both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence about how the burden of the toll should fall on demographic groups have been mixed, depending on a variety of contextual factors such as automobile access, work schedule, flexibility, and spatial distribution of activities. Yet the evidence so far for implemented congestion pricing systems has not examined explicitly the role of such contextual factors. With the congestion pricing trial in Stockholm, Sweden, as a case study, this paper uses structural equation modeling to estimate a model of the role of age, income, and gender as independent variables; contextual factors as endogenous variables; and the change in automobile trips after congestion pricing as dependent variables. The findings indicated that gender was a significant factor in terms of the total effects and that three of the four contextual variables-access to a car, possession of a longterm transit pass, and having a workplace on the same side of the cordon as home-played significant mediating roles in the indirect effects of the demographic variables on trips by automobile. Moreover, it was found that gender was significant only when the contextual factors were included in the model. This finding suggested that a significant variable could be missed when such factors were omitted.

  • 17.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    The Reliability Benefits of Congestion Pricing2011In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310XArticle in journal (Other academic)
  • 18.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    The Reliability Effects of Congestion Pricing2012Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 19.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    The Role of Preference Variation in the Accessibility and Equity Effects of Congestion Pricing2009Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 20.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Valuation of Travel Time Variability: Review and Plausibility Check2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 21.
    Franklin, Joel
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301).
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Karlström, Anders
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301).
    Traveller Responses to the Stockholm Congestion Pricing Trial: Who Changed, Where Did They Go, and What Did It Cost Them?2009In: Travel Demand Management and Road User Pricing: Success, Failure and Feasibility, Ashgate, 2009Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 22.
    Franklin, Joel
    et al.
    University of California, Davis.
    Niemeier, Debbie
    University of California, Davis.
    Discrete Choice Elasticities for Elderly and Disabled Travelers Between Fixed-Route Transit and Paratransit1998In: Transportation Research Record, Vol. 1623Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 23.
    Franklin, Joel P.
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Karlström, Anders
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Travel Time Reliability for Stockholm Roadways Modeling Mean Lateness Factor2009In: Transportation Research Record, ISSN 0361-1981, E-ISSN 2169-4052, no 2134, p. 106-113Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In recent years, there has been an increasing awareness that travel time reliability, apart from expected travel time, is an important component of cost-benefit analysis, especially during congested traffic conditions. A common measure of travel time reliability is standard deviation, and it has been shown that this is a theoretically sound measure under scheduling constraints, provided that the mean lateness factor is known. Hence, in applied cost-benefit analyses, one will need both the standard deviation and the mean lateness factor. These analyses would be particularly simple if the mean lateness were constant across time of day and for different routes chosen. A study was done to explore how the mean lateness varies and how its variations can be approximated. With the use of travel time measurements on individual links, it is shown how mean lateness varies considerably across time and space. It is shown that mean lateness exhibits a time-varying pattern depending on the characteristics of congestion on the link. It is also shown that the location of the link in the network is a significant determinant. The resulting model for mean lateness represents a considerable improvement over existing practice, where the mean lateness is implicitly assumed constant, yet a large portion of its variation remains unexplained. The model is useful for informing future research but is of less value for predicting the mean lateness in broad applied settings.

  • 24.
    Franklin, Joel
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Vierth, Inge
    Participation in Expert Panel on Travel Time Reliability2011Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 25.
    Karlström, Anders
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Behavioral Adjustments and Equity Effects of Congestion Pricing: Analysis of morning commutes during the Stockholm Trial2009In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 43, no 3, p. 283-296Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper assesses the horizontal and vertical equity effects of the Stockholm Trial with Congestion Pricing for morning commuters, in terms of both travel behavioral adjustments and welfare effects, as a result of the toll's direct effects and the behavioral adjustments. We consider specifically two behavioral adjustments: mode choice and departure time choice. Initial car drivers crossing the toll cordon had a 15 percentage-points higher rate of switching to public transit as compared with those not crossing the cordon. We also find some evidence of peak spreading. in particular toward a later departure time, as a result of the charging scheme, but most people choose a departure time within 15 min both before and during the trial. In the welfare analysis, we found no clear pattern of increasing burden by either increasing income or decreasing income, and the increase in the Gini Coefficient was insignificant. We also found no significant difference in either the mode-switching behavior or the average welfare effect for women versus for men.

  • 26.
    Langbroek, J. H. M.
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Franklin, Joel P.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Susilo, Yusak O.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Change towards electric vehicle use in Greater Stockholm2017In: European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, ISSN 1567-7133, E-ISSN 1567-7141, Vol. 17, no 3, p. 306-329Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies electric vehicle (EV) adoption in Greater Stockholm in Sweden using the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM) and the Protection Motivation Theory as a framework and considers socio-cognitive, behavioural and socio-economic attributes that may influence the process towards electric vehicle use. TTM considers behavioural change as a process consisting of five stages-of-change rather than as an event. Some key findings were made: (1) from the earlier to the later stages-of-change, the attitude towards EVs becomes more positive, the knowledge about EVs increases and the self-efficacy is consistently increasing. (2) The threat appraisal and response efficacy of EVs increase from stage to stage in the stages prior to the actual change but have a lower level for the stages after the change. (3) The explanatory power of regression models modelling both pre-contemplation and all stages-of-change increases significantly when incorporating socio-cognitive variables such as self-efficacy, threat-appraisal, response efficacy and attitudes towards EVs. (4) The modal share of the car is consistently increasing throughout the stages-of-change. The results indicate that policy measures aiming at increasing knowledge and self-efficacy of car drivers related to EV use can stimulate electric vehicle adoption. Also, the relative advantages of EVs for car drivers should get more attention rather than only emphasizing the environmental advantages.

  • 27.
    Langbroek, Joram
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Susilo, Yusak
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    The effect of policy incentives on electric vehicle adoption2016In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 94, p. 94-103Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to increase the attractiveness of electric vehicles (EVs), packages of policy incentives are provided in many countries. However, it is still unclear how effective different policy incentives are. Also, it is questionable that they have the same impact on different groups of people. In this study, based on a stated-choice experiment, the effect of several potential policy incentives on EV-adoption, as well as the influence of socio-psychological determinants are investigated, using constructs of the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM) and the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT). The probability of stated EV-adoption increases if policy incentives are offered in the choice experiment, which is expected because of the decrease of the generalized cost of EV-use. The high stated valuation of free parking or access to bus lanes makes those incentives an efficient alternative to expensive subsidies. EV-adoption probability increases for people that are further in the process of behavioural change. However, the responsiveness to subsidies decreases for people in more advanced stages of-change. People that believe EVs to be effective in decreasing the negative externalities of the current transport system and people whose travel patterns can cope with the use of EVs also have a higher probability to choose the EV. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 28.
    Langbroek, Joram Hendrik Maarten
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Franklin, Joel P.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, System Analysis and Economics.
    Susilo, Yusak
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Traffic Research, CTR. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, System Analysis and Economics.
    A stated adaptation instrument for studying travel patterns after electric vehicle adoption2018In: Transportation Research Procedia, ISSN 2324-9935, E-ISSN 2352-1465, Vol. 32, p. 464-473Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper describes and evaluates a stated adaptation instrument to investigate the effects of a transition towards electric vehicles on travel behaviour. The respondents were equipped with an “imaginary” electric vehicle with a specific range and were asked whether they wanted to make changes in an activity-travel schedule they had previously registered. It has been found that electric vehicle use may increase car use, and that activities are likely to be cancelled in case of problems with range limitations. In this paper, the validity, reliability and practical implementation of this stated adaptation experiment are discussed.

  • 29.
    Langbroek, Joram Hendrik Maarten
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Franklin, Joel P.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Susilo, Yusak
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Electric vehicle users and their travel patterns in Greater Stockholm2017In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, ISSN 1361-9209, E-ISSN 1879-2340, Vol. 52, p. 98-111Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Electric vehicles (EVs) show promise for improving the environmental sustainability of the transport system since, as opposed to conventional vehicles, they have no tailpipe exhaust gas emissions. The use of EVs can also decrease the amount of greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the electricity has been generated with renewable energy sources. However, the scale of projected benefits can be questioned since the travel patterns of car drivers may not stay the same after changing to EVs, due to various factors such as higher investment costs, lower operation costs and general perceptions associated with electric vehicles. In this study, the travel patterns of both electric vehicle users and conventional vehicle users in Greater Stockholm are compared with regard to the number of trips made and the modal share of the car in the total travel distance. For this purpose, a one-day travel diary carried out in autumn 2014 has been used. The main findings are the following: firstly, the EV is generally perceived by respondents to be more environmentally friendly than public transport modes. Secondly, EV users make significantly more trips than their non-EV using counterparts, according to their one-day travel diaries and controlling for socio-economic and situational variables. Thirdly, EV users choose the car for a significantly larger percentage of their total travel distance than conventional vehicle users. Those observations would suggest a rebound effect, as EVs still consume a considerable amount of energy and contribute to other external effects such as congestion.

  • 30.
    Langbroek, Joram H.M.
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, System Analysis and Economics. Transportation Research Institute, Hasselt University, Wetenschapspark 5, bus 6, 3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium.
    Franklin, Joel P.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, System Analysis and Economics.
    Susilo, Yusak O.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, System Analysis and Economics.
    How would you change your travel patterns if you used an electric vehicle? A stated adaptation approach2018In: Travel Behaviour & Society, ISSN 2214-367X, E-ISSN 2214-3688, Vol. 13, p. 144-154Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The real environmental benefits of a transition towards EVs highly depend on the future EV-users’ activity-travel patterns adapted to their new vehicle’s capacity. Despite its importance, the impact of this adaptation is largely unknown. In this study, a stated adaptation experiment has been conducted to investigate changes of travel patterns as a result of range limitations or the opposite, abundant range. The basis for this experiment is a one-day travel diary among active drivers in Greater Stockholm. The main findings of this study are the following: (1) Drivers facing range limitations are more likely to make use of alternative means of transport (mainly public transport) if the travel time difference between car and public transport is low and if not many transfers are needed for the public transport trip. (2) In case of (perceived) range limitations, shopping trips and trips visiting friends or relatives are more likely to be cancelled than working trips. (3) The main trip purpose of additional trips in case of sufficient EV range is shopping. (4) A non-negligible number of public transport trips are likely to be replaced by EV. Shortly, the effects of the transition towards electric vehicle use on personal mobility seem to depend on the availability of accessible substitutes. Besides that, a rebound effect has been observed in this study.

  • 31.
    Mörtberg, Ulla
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Land and Water Resources Engineering.
    Haas, Jan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Geodesy and Geoinformatics.
    Zetterberg, Andreas
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Land and Water Resources Engineering.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Jonsson, Daniel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Deal, Brian
    University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
    Urban ecosystems and sustainable urban development-analysing and assessing interacting systems in the Stockholm region2013In: Urban Ecosystems, ISSN 1083-8155, E-ISSN 1573-1642, Vol. 16, no 4, p. 763-782Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to build competence for sustainability analysis and assessment of urban systems, it is seen as essential to build on models representing urban form, landuse and transportation, urban metabolism, as well as ecological processes. This type of analysis of interacting sub-systems requires an advanced model integration platform, yet open for learning and for further development. Moreover, since the aim is to increase urban experience with ecosystem management in the wide sense, the platform needs to be open and easily available, with high visualisation capacity. For this purpose, the LEAM model was applied to the Stockholm Region and two potential future scenarios were developed, resulting from alternative policies. The scenarios differed widely and the dense urban development of Scenario Compact could be visualised, destroying much of the Greenstructure of Stockholm, while Scenario Urban Nature steered the development more to outer suburbs and some sprawl. For demonstration of the need for further development of biodiversity assessment models, a network model tied to a prioritised ecological profile was applied and altered by the scenarios. It could be shown that the Greenstructure did not support this profile very well. Thus, there is a need for dynamic models for negotiations, finding alternative solutions and interacting with other models. The LEAM Stockholm case study is planned to be further developed, to interact with more advanced transport and land use models, as well as analysing energy systems and urban water issues. This will enable integrated sustainability analysis and assessment of complex urban systems, for integration in the planning process in Stockholm as well as for comparative sustainability studies between different cities, with the goal to build more sustainable urban systems and to increase urban experiences in ecosystem management.

  • 32.
    Termida, Nursitihazlin Ahmad
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. Univ Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, Fac Civil & Environm Engn, Smart Driving Res Ctr, Batu Pahat 86400, Johor, Malaysia.
    Susilo, Yusak
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, System Analysis and Economics.
    Franklin, Joel P.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, System Analysis and Economics.
    Chengxi, Liu
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Understanding seasonal variation in individual's activity participation and trip generation by using four consecutive two-week travel diary2018In: Travel Behaviour & Society, ISSN 2214-367X, E-ISSN 2214-3688, Vol. 12, p. 52-63Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper explores the interactions between travel demand, time allocation and mode choice in different seasons by jointly modeling the work and/or study, routine and leisure activity-travel engagements of 67 individuals in Stockholm, Sweden. A longitudinal panel two-week travel diary data collected in four consecutive waves over a span of seven months period that covers all four different seasons; autumn, winter, spring and summer, were analysed by using simultaneous Tobit models. The model was applied to explore the interactions among each activity-travel indicator, and individuals' unique characteristics and endogeneity in activity-travel engagements between different seasons were also considered in the model system. The results of models reveal clear trade-offs between mandatory activities (work and/or study) and non-mandatory activities (routine and leisure), regardless of any seasons, although the magnitudes vary between seasons. There is also a positive mutual endogeneity relationship between number of trips and activity duration within the same activity type. The trade-offs between work and/or study trips towards routine and leisure trips are larger in winter and spring respectively, than in other seasons. It is also found that mode effects on travel time for conducting mandatory activity are much larger in spring than in other seasons. However, the effects of public transport and slow modes on travel time for leisure activities are much larger in summer than in other seasons.

  • 33. Waddell, Paul
    et al.
    Ulfarsson, Gudmundur Freyr
    Franklin, Joel
    Lobb, John
    Incorporating land use in metropolitan transportation planning2007In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 41, no 5, p. 382-410Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In current practice, very few Metropolitan Planning Agencies attempt to capture the effects of transportation system changes on land use, and the consequent feedback effects on transportation system performance, despite substantial evidence that these effects may be significant. In this paper, we present a case study on the application of UrbanSim, a detailed land use simulation model system, and its integration with a regional travel demand model in the Greater Wasatch Front area of Utah. Like several other metropolitan areas, this region has recently been confronted with legal challenges to proposed highway projects, drawing substantial scrutiny to the land use-transportation connection. We describe the UrbanSim model specification, results from model estimation, and sensitivity analyses conducted with the combined land use and travel model system. The results of the sensitivity analysis suggest that accounting for the land use effects of a regional transportation plan may produce significant shifts in key transportation evaluation measures such as vehicle miles traveled, vehicle hours traveled, and hours of congestion delay.

  • 34.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Basck, Pierre
    LET, Université de Lyon.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Proost, Stef
    CES, KU Leuven.
    Raux, Charles
    LET, Université de Lyon.
    Achieving political acceptability for new transport infrastructure in congested urban regions2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper analyzes the political acceptability of policies targeted at relieving urban congestion. The paper combines a stylized model of an urban transport network with a somewhat more detailed model of the political process that incorporates interactions between voters, special interest groups and politicians to explore the possibilities to reach political acceptability for efficient transport policies. In a case study of a proposed bypass in Lyon, France, the paper compares a set of potential policies in terms of efficiency, equity and political acceptability. A possible explanation for the difficulty of achieving political support for efficient transport policies is that since urban road pricing policies are characterized by conflicting interest, the political decision making process must balance different interests against each other to reach an efficient outcome. The analysis suggest that the difficulty to achieve political support for efficient road pricing policies is not a lack of political acceptability; instead the difficulty arises because of low political feasibility for efficient transport pricing since non-efficient transport policies are seen as more attractive to the decision makers.

  • 35.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Basck, Pierre
    Laboratoire d’Economie des Transports.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Proost, Stef
    Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
    Raux, Charles
    Laboratoire d’Economie des Transports.
    Achieving political acceptability for new transport infrastructure in congested urban regions2012Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 36.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Grahn-Voorneveld, Sofia
    Acceptability and Political Coordination of Road User Charges2011Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 37.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Grahn-Voorneveld, Sofia
    VTI.
    Proost, Stef
    Acceptability and Political Coordination of Road User Charges2012Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 38.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Grahn-Voorneveld, Sofia
    Proost, Stef
    How to decide on regional infrastructure to achieve intra-regional acceptability and inter-regional consensus?2012In: Papers in regional science (Print), ISSN 1056-8190, E-ISSN 1435-5957, Vol. 91, no 3, p. 617-643Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many regions face through-traffic that causes local negative externalities. Regions might respond by imposing user charges or investing in bypass transport infrastructure. In this paper two levels of decision-making are studied: co-operation among regions and acceptability within regions. If left to a single region, it will overcharge for usage and under-invest in bypass capacity. Through interregional co-operation, an efficient outcome can be reached. Without compensation within each region, intraregional acceptability constraints protecting certain interest groups can lead to inefficient tolling. This can explain political preferences for tolling bypasses and not city centre roads.

  • 39.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science. Centre for Regional Science, Umeå University.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Proost, Stef
    KU Leuven.
    Basck, Pierre
    LET, Université de Lyon.
    Raux, Charles
    LET, Université de Lyon.
    Achieving political acceptability for new transport infrastructure in congested urban regions2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 88, p. 286-303Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 40.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Proost, Stefaan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Basck, Pierre
    Raux, Charles
    Achieving political acceptability for new transport infrastructure in congested urban regions2013Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many urban regions contemplate investing in peripheral roadways that bypass the city centre in order to alleviate congestion, improve local environment and facilitate more efficient travel across the greater metropolitan areas. Increasingly, such proposals are accompanied by tolling as a means of finance. Indeed, an optimal policy from an efficiency point of view would be to consider tolling both the bypass and the existing central roadway that is relieved. However, this may be blocked by stakeholders and voter groups, or indeed never proposed to begin with.

    The rarity of congestion pricing implementations, despite supportive economic arguments, has led to a considerable body of literature ranging from equity issues (e.g. Giuliano, 1994), to privacy (e.g. Ogden, 2001), and most recently, to acceptability aspects (e.g. Schade & Schlag, 2003), where the specific factors influencing voters and decision-makers, as well as the effects of acceptability on transport policy, take centre stage. Still, few papers (e.g. Levinson, 2001; de Borger et al 2007 & 2008) have systematically examined the political economic circumstances surrounding acceptability of road pricing, and none to our knowledge has addressed the possible role of special interest groups.

    The paper analyzes the political acceptability of policies targeted at relieving urban congestion. The paper combines a stylized model of an urban transport network with a somewhat more detailed model of the political process that incorporates interactions between voters, special interest groups and politicians to explore the possibilities to reach political acceptability for efficient transport policies. In a case study of a proposed bypass in Lyon, France, the paper compares a set of potential policies in terms of efficiency, equity and political acceptability.

    The analysis suggests that the difficulty to achieve political support for efficient road pricing policies is not because optimal tolling cannot get majority support; instead the difficulty arises because conflicting interests make other non-efficient policies more attractive to many decision makers. In order to achieve political acceptability for efficient road pricing, more attention therefore needs to be placed on how the political process can resolve the inherent conflicting interests associated with efficient transport pricing policies.

  • 41.
    Whitehead, Jake
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. Queensland University of Technology.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Washington, Simon
    Queensland University of Technology.
    The impact of a congestion charging exemption scheme on the demand for low-emission vehiclesManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    To stimulate sales of Low-Emission Vehicles (LEVs) it was decided to exempt some of these automobiles from Stockholm’s congestion charge. In this paper the effect this policy had on the demand for LEVs is estimated by simulating different policy scenarios using the results of a multinomial logit model (MNL). This model was based upon owner-specific demographics merged with vehicle registry data for all new private vehicles registered in Stockholm county during 2008. Through this process the characteristics of individuals who had a higher propensity towards purchasing an exempt LEV were identified. The most significant characteristics included inter-cordon residency (positive), distance of home from cordon boundary (negative), and commuting across the cordon boundary (positive). Inter-cordon residents commuting across the boundary had the highest propensity towards purchasing an exempt LEV. Owners under the age of 30 preferred low CO2 petrol/diesel vehicles, whilst those over 30 preferred electric vehicles. In terms of electric vehicles, those living within the cordon had the highest propensity towards this alternative. By calculating vehicle shares from the MNL model, and comparing these with a simulated scenario where the congestion charging exemption was inactive, the policy was found to have a substantial effect, increasing the share of exempt LEVs in Stockholm by 1.9% to a total share of 18.9% (13.1% increase for inter-cordon residents commuting over the boundary; 5.0% increase for outer city residents commuting over the boundary). In other words, the exemption policy was found to have increased LEV purchases in Stockholm, during 2008, by approximately 550 vehicles.

  • 42.
    Whitehead, Jake
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. The Royal Institute of Technology and Queensland University of Technology.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Washington, Simon
    Queensland University of Technology.
    The impact of a congestion pricing exemption on the demand for new energy efficient vehicles in Stockholm2014In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 70, p. 24-40Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As governments seek to transition to more efficient vehicle fleets, one strategy has been to incentivize ‘green’ vehicle choice by exempting some of these vehicles from road user charges. As an example, to stimulate sales of energy efficient vehicles (EEVs) in Sweden, some of these automobiles were exempted from Stockholm’s congestion tax. In this paper the effect this policy had on the demand for new, privately-owned, exempt EEVs is assessed by first estimating a model of vehicle choice and then by applying this model to simulate vehicle alternative market shares under different policy scenarios. The database used to calibrate the model includes owner-specific demographics merged with vehicle registry data for all new private vehicles registered in Stockholm County during 2008. Characteristics of individuals with a higher propensity to purchase an exempt EEV were identified. The most significant factors included intra-cordon residency (positive), distance from home to the CBD (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). By calculating vehicle shares from the vehicle choice model and then comparing these estimates to a simulated scenario where the congestion tax exemption was inactive, the exemption was estimated to have substantially increased the share of newly purchased, private, exempt EEVs in Stockholm by 1.8% (±0.3%; 95% C.I.) to a total share of 18.8%. This amounts to an estimated 10.7% increase in private, exempt EEV purchases during 2008, i.e., 519 privately owned, exempt EEVs.

  • 43.
    Whitehead, Jake
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport planning, economics and engineering.
    Washington, Simon
    Queensland University of Technology, Australia .
    Transitioning to energy efficient vehicles: An analysis of the potential rebound effects and subsequent impact upon emissions2015In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 74, p. 250-267Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Given the shift toward energy efficient vehicles (EEVs) in recent years, it is important that the effects of this transition are properly examined. This paper investigates some of these effects by analyzing annual kilometers traveled (AKT) of private vehicle owners in Stockholm in 2008. The difference in emissions associated with EEV adoption is estimated, along with the effect of a congestion-pricing exemption for EEVs on vehicle usage. Propensity score matching is used to compare AKT rates of different vehicle owner groups based on the treatments of: EEV ownership and commuting across the cordon, controlling for confounding factors such as demographics. Through this procedure, rebound effects are identified, with some EEV owners found to have driven up to 12.2% further than non-EEV owners. Although some of these differences could be attributed to the congestion-pricing exemption, the results were not statistically significant. Overall, taking into account lifecycle emissions of each fuel type, average EEV emissions were 50.5% less than average non-EEV emissions, with this reduction in emissions offset by 2.0% due to rebound effects. Although it is important for policy-makers to consider the potential for unexpected negative effects in similar transitions, the overall benefit of greatly reduced emissions appears to outweigh any rebound effects present in this case study.

  • 44.
    Whitehead, Jake
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. Queensland University of Technology.
    Franklin, Joel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Washington, Simon
    Queensland University of Technology.
    Transitioning to low-emission vehicles: an analysis of the potential rebound effects and subsequent impact upon emissionsManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper examines the annual distances driven between demographically-similar, privately-owned low-emission vehicle (LEV) and conventional vehicle owners in Stockholm during 2008. This analysis was used to assess the potential rebound effects of using financial incentives to encourage a transition in the vehicle fleet from conventional vehicles to LEVs. The potential rebound effects and differences in emissions due to the transition have been estimated, along with an assessment of the effect of an exemption for LEVs from Stockholm’s congestion charging scheme, upon annual distance travelled. The analysis used vehicle registry data merged with owner-specific demographics, including home-work locations. A logistic regression was performed on these demographics to construct scores representing each individual’s propensity to purchase an LEV. These propensity scores were then used to match and compare the odometer-based distance travelled for demographically-similar LEVs and conventional vehicle owners. Rebound effects of 5-12% were identified in regards to the differences in annual distance driven between LEV and conventional vehicle owners, with those who commuted across the cordon boundary found to have the greatest differences suggesting that the exemption policy did increase LEV usage. Overall, it was determined that the direct emissions of LEV owners were reduced by 52.4% due to the transition to these vehicles. The findings suggest, however, that emissions could have been reduced by a further 2.4% if these apparent rebound effects had not occurred. Furthermore, this offset in emissions reductions did not include secondary effects, such as increased congestion, that would have led to greater emissions from conventional vehicles. 

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