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  • 1.
    Almlöf, Erik
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Jenelius, Erik (Contributor)
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    PSSST – Policies for sustainable, shared and self-drivingtransportation2022Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Download full text (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 2.
    Almlöf, Erik
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Nybacka, Mikael
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics.
    Pernestål Brenden, Anna
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Will leisure trips be more affected than work trips by autonomous technology? Modelling self-driving public transport and cars in Stockholm, SwedenManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Self-driving technology may lead to a paradigm shift for the transport industry with shared cars available to everyone. However, this vision has increasingly been challenged as too optimistic and unsubstantiated. In this study we explore societal impacts of using this technology for both cars and public transport and investigate differences depending on geography and trip purpose. Four scenarios were designed through workshops with 130 transport experts, modelled using a conventional four-step model for Stockholm, Sweden and evaluated in terms of changes to mode choice, number of trips and person kilometres. 

    We find larger increases for non-commuting trips, i.e. service and leisure trips, than for commuting trips, questioning the view of the ‘productive work trip’ as self-driving technology’s main impact on society. As these trips are primarily made outside of rush hours, this may lead to a changed transport system. Geographic differences are substantial and heavily dependent on the cost model for car alternatives, even indicating a reduction in car travel in rural areas if private ownership would be replaced by shared cars. Furthermore, walking and cycling levels decreased in all scenarios while enhancing public transport using self-driving technology has a limited impact on ridership. 

    These results show that the impacts of self-driving technology may have varied societal impacts even within a region and may lead to increased car travel, especially off-peak. These conclusions stress the need for policies that are sensitive to both geography and time. 

  • 3.
    Almlöf, Erik
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Nybacka, Mikael
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics, Vehicle Engineering and Solid Mechanics. KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Pernestål Brenden, Anna
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Will leisure trips be more affected than work trips by autonomous technology?: Modelling self-driving public transport and cars in Stockholm, Sweden2022In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 165, p. 1-19Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Self-driving technology may lead to a paradigm shift for the transport industry with shared cars available to every-one. However, this vision has increasingly been challenged as too optimistic and unsubstantiated. In this study we explore societal impacts of using this technology for both cars and public transport and investigate differences depending on geography and trip purpose. Four scenarios were designed through workshops with 130 transport experts, modelled using a conventional four-step model for Stockholm, Sweden and evaluated in terms of changes to mode choice, number of trips and person kilometres.We find larger increases for non-commuting trips, i.e. service and leisure trips, than for commuting trips, questioning the view of the 'productive work trip' as self-driving technology's main impact on society. As these trips are primarily made outside of rush hours, this may lead to a changed transport system. Geographic differences are substantial and heavily dependent on the cost model for car alternatives, even indicating a reduction in car travel in rural areas if private ownership would be replaced by shared cars. Furthermore, walking and cycling levels decreased in all scenarios while enhancing public transport using self-driving technology had a limited impact on ridership.These results show that the impacts of self-driving technology may have varied societal impacts even within a region and may lead to increased car travel, especially off-peak. These conclusions stress the need for policies that are sensitive to both geography and time.

  • 4.
    Almlöf, Erik
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Rubensson, Isak
    Reg Stockholm, Traf Forvaltningen Publ Transport Adm, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Cebecauer, Matej
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Who continued travelling by public transport during COVID-19?: Socioeconomic factors explaining travel behaviour in Stockholm 2020 based on smart card data2021In: European Transport Research Review, ISSN 1867-0717, E-ISSN 1866-8887, Vol. 13, no 1, article id 31Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has changed travel behaviour and reduced the use of public transport throughout the world, but the reduction has not been uniform. In this study we analyse the propensity to stop travelling by public transport during COVID-19 for the holders of 1.8 million smart cards in Stockholm, Sweden, for the spring and autumn of 2020. We suggest two binomial logit models for explaining the change in travel pattern, linking socioeconomic data per area and travel data with the probability to stop travelling. Modelled variables The first model investigates the impact of the socioeconomic factors: age; income; education level; gender; housing type; population density; country of origin; and employment level. The results show that decreases in public transport use are linked to all these factors. The second model groups the investigated areas into five distinct clusters based on the socioeconomic data, showing the impacts for different socioeconomic groups. During the autumn the differences between the groups diminished, and especially Cluster 1 (with the lowest education levels, lowest income and highest share of immigrants) reduced their public transport use to a similar level as the more affluent clusters. Results The results show that socioeconomic status affect the change in behaviour during the pandemic and that exposure to the virus is determined by citizens' socioeconomic class. Furthermore, the results can guide policy into tailoring public transport supply to where the need is, instead of assuming that e.g. crowding is equally distributed within the public transport system in the event of a pandemic.

  • 5.
    Almlöf, Erik
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Rubensson, Isak
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Who is still travelling by public transport during COVID-19?: Socioeconomic factors explaining travel behaviour in Stockholm based on smart card data2021Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The COVID-19 pandemic has changed travel behaviour and reduced the use of public transport throughout the world, but the reduction has not been uniform. In this study we analyse the propensity to stop travelling by public transport during COVID-19 for the holders of 1.8 million smart cards in Stockholm, Sweden. We suggest two models for explaining the change in travel pattern, linking socioeconomic data with the probability to stop travelling. We find that education level, income and age are strong predictors, but that workplace type also substantially affect the propensity of public transport travel. Furthermore, we use clustering to divide the population into five separate social groups, serving as a more intuitive understanding of how the pandemic has affected different citizens’ propensity to use public transport. The results can guide policy makers on how to better tail e.g. bus supply to local demand, either through an increased understanding of differences based on the results or by further incorporating the results into a transport simulation models.

  • 6.
    Almlöf, Erik
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Zhao, Xiaoyun
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL. School of Technology and Business Studies, Dalarna University, Falun, Sweden.
    Pernestål Brenden, Anna
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Nybacka, Mikael
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics, Vehicle Engineering and Solid Mechanics. KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Frameworks for assessing societal impacts of automated driving technology2022In: Transportation planning and technology (Print), ISSN 0308-1060, E-ISSN 1029-0354, Vol. 45, no 7, p. 545-572Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Numerous studies have studied the impacts of automated driving (AD) technology on e.g. accident rates or CO2 emissions using various frameworks. In this paper we present an overview of previous frameworks used for societal impacts and review their advantages and limitations. Additionally, we introduce the Total Impact Assessment (TIA) framework developed by the Swedish Transport Administration and use this framework to evaluate three scenarios for AD bus services in Stockholm. We conclude that the reviewed frameworks cover different aspects of AD technology, and that e.g. cybersecurity and biodiversity are areas largely neglected. Furthermore, most frameworks assume effects to be homogenous, when there may be large variation in e.g. perceived security. The TIA framework does not manage to include all societal aspects of AD technology, but has great benefits and manages to provide important insights of the societal impacts of AD technology, especially how effects may wary for different actors. 

  • 7.
    Almlöf, Erik
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Zhao, Xiaoyun
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Pernestål Brenden, Anna
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Nybacka, Mikael
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics.
    Frameworks for assessing societal impacts of self-driving technologyManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Numerous studies have studied the impacts of self-driving technology on e.g. accident rates or CO2 emissions using various frameworks. In this paper we present an overview of previous frameworks used for societal impacts, and review their advantages and limitations. Additionally, we introduce the Total Impact Assessment (TIA) framework developed by the Swedish Transport Administration and use this framework to evaluate three scenarios for self-driving bus services in Stockholm. We conclude that the reviewed frameworks cover different aspects of self-driving technology, and that e.g. cybersecurity and biodiversity are areas neglected by most frameworks. Furthermore, most frameworks assume effects to be homogenous, when there may be large variation in e.g. perceived security. The TIA framework does not manage to include all societal aspects of self-driving technology, but has great benefits and manages to provide important insights of the societal impacts of self-driving technology, especially how effects may wary for different actors.

  • 8.
    Andreolli, Raphael
    et al.
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics, Vehicle Engineering and Solid Mechanics.
    Nybacka, Mikael
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics, Vehicle Engineering and Solid Mechanics. KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    O'Reilly, Ciarán J.
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Centres, VinnExcellence Center for ECO2 Vehicle design. KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics.
    Falkgrim, Eric
    Scania.
    Energy Consumption Evaluation of Emerging and Current Vehicle Fleets in Urban Logistics2024In: 10th Transportation Research Arena, Dublin, Ireland, 15-18 April 2024, 2024Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Driverless multipurpose vehicles (DMVs) are an emerging vehicle concept for urban heavy-duty transport. However, little is known about their effect on urban road transport systems. Thus, the aim of this study is to analyse the total fleet energy consumption of DMVs for specific transport operations in urban logistics compared to heavy- duty battery and combustion vehicles. A novel electric vehicle routing problem was used to simulate in total 96 case-studies of operations with varying network and vehicle fleet properties. We found that the combustion vehicle fleets consumed significantly more energy for the same operation compared to the electric vehicle fleets. Although the DMV fleet and battery electric vehicle fleet showcased similar energy consumption for most case-studies, there were several operations where the DMV fleet consumed less energy and required a smaller fleet size. This study highlights the potential benefits of DMV fleets in urban logistics operations in terms of reducing total fleet energy consumption and fleet size.

  • 9.
    Andreolli, Raphael
    et al.
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics, Vehicle Engineering and Solid Mechanics. KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL. KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Centres, VinnExcellence Center for ECO2 Vehicle design. Scania CV AB, Södertälje, Sweden.
    Nybacka, Mikael
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics, Vehicle Engineering and Solid Mechanics. KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Centres, Integrated Transport Research Lab, ITRL.
    O'Reilly, Ciarán J.
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Engineering Mechanics, Vehicle Engineering and Solid Mechanics. KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Centres, VinnExcellence Center for ECO2 Vehicle design.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Falkgrim, Eric
    Scania CV AB, Södertälje, Sweden.
    A review on real vehicle usage modelling of driverless multipurpose vehicles in vehicle routing problems2023In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Engineering Design, ICED 2023, Cambridge University Press (CUP) , 2023, p. 385-394Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Real vehicle usage rarely matches the predictions made during early phases of vehicle development and sales processes at commercial road vehicle manufacturers. The automotive industry needs multidisciplinary vehicle design methods to predict real-world vehicle operations by considering the vehicle level and the transport system level simultaneously, in a more holistic approach. The aim of this study was to analyse how realistic vehicle usage of driverless multipurpose vehicles can be modelled in Vehicle Routing Problems (VRPs) by conducting a systematic literature review. We found that real vehicle usage modelling of driverless multipurpose vehicles in VRPs mainly depended on the following elements: VRP variant, energy consumption model, energy consumption rate class, number of vehicle-specific design variables and transport system-level factors. Furthermore, we identified in the literature five classes of energy consumption rate edge behaviour in VRPs. These findings can support decision-making in the modelling process to select the most suitable combination of elements, and their level of detail for the overall modelling aim and purpose.

  • 10.
    Badia, Hugo
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Design and operation of feeder systems in the era of automated and electric buses2021In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 152, p. 146-172Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper evaluates the impact of vehicle automation and electrification on the applicability of fixed routes and door-to-door services to supply a feeder transit solution in suburban areas. These technologies will modify the current cost structure of the bus system depending on how mature they are, reducing operating costs and increasing capital costs. By means of a continuum approximation model, we evaluate the performance for users and agency of the two feeder strategies in different scenarios of technological development. The results show that automation has the main impact on the applicability between the two feeder alternatives while the effects of electrification are considerably smaller. The future applicability of door-to-door trips reaches wider ranges, although this change is especially significant under some circumstances of technology, service area and users. The expansion of this range is relevant in case the automated bus is mature enough (high reduction of operating cost and low vehicle acquisition price), the areas are small, the trips are short and the value of time is high. However, the results reveal that fixed routes will remain a competitive feeder solution in a wide range of scenarios. We identify that the demand density threshold grows sharply in front of any reduction of agency costs once its value is around 200-300 pax/km2-h. Therefore, flexible services will gain applicability especially in environments that allow reaching this threshold.

  • 11.
    Badia, Hugo
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Feeder Transit Services in Different Development Stages of Automated Buses: Comparing Fixed Routes versus Door-to-Door Trips2020In: Transportation Research Procedia, Elsevier B.V. , 2020, p. 521-528Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The arrival of automated vehicles could significantly reduce the operating cost of mobility services. This fact has encouraged researchers to propose door-to-door services instead of the current fixed routes. However, a comparison between these two alternatives is required in order to identify when (depending on the development degree of the automated vehicles) and where (depending on the characteristics of the area of service) the implementation of each service is the most competitive solution. This research compares the two types of transit services to supply first/last-mile solutions in suburban areas. By means of an analytical approach, the results show that fixed routes remain the most efficient alternative unless the new technology reaches a certain degree of development that allows a high reduction of operating costs. In this case, the applicability of door-to-door services will significantly increase under certain circumstances: small areas of service, short distance trips and high values of time.

  • 12.
    Badia, Hugo
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Operation of automated buses for first/last-mile solutions: fixed routes versus door-to-door trips2019Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 13.
    Badia, Hugo
    et al.
    Serra Hunter Fellow, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UPC – Barcelona Tech, Barcelona, Spain.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Shared e-scooter micromobility: review of use patterns, perceptions and environmental impacts2023In: Transport reviews, ISSN 0144-1647, E-ISSN 1464-5327, Vol. 43, no 5, p. 811-837Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recently, a new shared micromobility service has become popular in cities. The service is supplied by a new vehicle, the e-scooter, which is equipped with a dockless security system and electric power assistance. The relatively unregulated proliferation of these systems driven by the private sector has resulted in numerous research questions about their repercussions. This paper reviews scientific publications as well as evaluation reports and other technical documents from around the world to provide insights about these issues. In particular, we focus on mobility, consumer perception and environment. Based on this review, we observe several knowledge needs in different directions: deeper comprehension of use patterns, their function in the whole transport system, and appropriate policies, designs and operations for competitive and sustainable shared e-scooter services.

  • 14. Badia Rodriguez, Hugo
    et al.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Lansner, Eric
    Montero, Mariana
    Modelling of Micromobility (M3) - Prestudy on Knowledge Needs and Usage Patterns: Final report2021Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In the last years, a new generation of shared micromobility services has rapidly proliferated in urban areas. The distinctive characteristics of these services in comparison to previous ones are dockless security systems, electric power assistance and a new device different from bicycles, the e-scooter.These technological advances reduce implementation costs and expand potential demand for these services, factors that made their promotion by private companies easy, reinforced by the lack of regulations on e-scooters.

    This type of service consists in a floating fleet of e-scooters distributed over a service area wherecompanies conduct several tasks of collection and distribution for device relocation and battery charging. Through the company’s app, users find, unlock and lock the scooters and pay for the service. The spread of these services has opened several questions about their impacts on four main areas:mobility, environment, infrastructure and urban space, and safety. The experience from several cities shows several insights about those issues:

    Travel behavior

    ▪ The average user is a 30-35 years old man who makes an average trip of one mile and ten minutes long, running at speed below 10 km/h. According to this average trip, scooters provide an intermediate solution between walking and cycling.

    ▪ Temporal distribution shows only one main peak during the afternoon, having more users during weekends, similar behavior as casual bike sharing systems, but different from the global mobility. Spatial distribution shows a similar behavior as the rest of the modes with high concentration in city centers and other attracting zones with high densities and mixed uses.

    ▪ The main trip purpose is related to free time for social or recreational activities, ranging between 30% and 75% of the total rides. The second most common purpose is related to the job and the third is shopping and errands. Based on the description of the trip purpose, current evaluations do not observe a generalized role as a feeder solution for public transport.

    ▪ Until now, this mobility service is not enough consolidated as an everyday transport solution since most of riders use the service with a monthly frequency or even less.

    ▪ These results are coherent: leisure trips are occasional and more frequent during the afternoon/evening and weekends.

    ▪ The main displaced mode is walking, around 40% of cases. In American cities, car trips also reaches similar substitution degree. However, in European cities, public transport is the second mode more affected by the arrival of scooters.

    ▪ However, taking into account the proportion of scooter trips in the global mobility, its impact is limited.

    Environmental impact

    ▪ Although scooters are introduced as a sustainable transport solution from an environmental perspective, several studies emphasize the current limitations that these services present today: short lifetimes, low daily usage rates and kilometers traveled by auxiliary vehicles for collection and distribution tasks among others. The first two are associated to a high impact for materials and manufacturing; the last one is connected to the day-to-day operation.

    ▪ The estimations of their impacts show worse results than the rest of transport modes, only surpassed by cars. For that reason, the current mode substitution does not improve the sustainability of the transport system since the proportion of eco-friendly alliance (walking, public transport and cycling) is greater than the car displacement, for European cities more than for American ones.

    ▪ To become a mode that improves the sustainability of the transport system, shared e-scooter services should achieve certain goals: lifetimes of 12-24 months, more than 10 kilometers traveled per scooter and day, fuel-efficient auxiliary vehicles, renewable energy sources, strategies to reduce the distance traveled due to operating tasks, and focused on the substitution of car trips.

    Infrastructure and urban space

    ▪ Uncontrolled spread of scooters in cities has increased the pressure on transport infrastructure and urban space, creating conflicts with other vehicles and activities. The main frictions are the obstructions due to inappropriate parked scooters and unsafe riding on sidewalks.

    ▪ However, the most common infrastructure where users ride is bike lanes, otherwise traffic lanes are the main alternative, being sidewalks the last option. Although riders would like to increase the use of segregated lanes for micromobility showing a lack of this type of infrastructure, or at least calming traffic streets.

    ▪ In the same line, most of scooter are properly parked on sidewalks (corrals or furniture areas without obstructing other flows). However, the improperly parking takes long times up to some hours, an extra factor that explains the negative perception about these new mobility services. This seems a visual or aesthetic impact more than a real obstruction issue.

    Safety

    ▪ Medical reports evidence a growth in the number of accidents where e-scooters are involved; although most of these incidents cause minor injuries, there are a certain percentage that require hospitalization and operations, even fatalities have been reported.

    ▪ The most common accident only involves the same scooter (falls, infrastructure in bad conditions, collision with objects, vehicle malfunction). However, crashes with motorized vehicles are the accidents with severe consequences.

    ▪ Accident rate estimated in different cities ranges from 20 to 70 accidents per 100,000 trips.

    ▪ Riders using a helmet are a minority, around 10% or less, even in those cities where it is mandatory.

    ▪ Since e-scooter trips are short, the perception of risk is smaller and users accept more risky behaviors.

    Measures and Policies

    ▪ From a legislative perspective, assimilation of the e-scooter as a pre-existing vehicle either bicycle or motorized vehicle.

    ▪ Cities order the uncontrolled and chaotic implementation of these services by means of constraints on the number of operators and fleet sizes. The former moves the competition off the road since companies should compete for operating permissions through a selection process. The latter meets the number of devices to the level of demand, introducing dynamic balancing depending on the usage rate of the e-scooters.

    ▪ Different fees are introduced in order to compensate some of the externalities generated by shared e/scooter services. Additionally, several fines for operators and users try to encourage a better management, safer riding and properly parking.

    ▪ Definition of non-riding (pedestrian streets, sidewalks), non-parking zones (parks, campus) and speed limits (10-30 km/h) in order to avoid conflicts with other transport modes and urban activities. Implementation of geofencing technology and speed controllers and lock-to technology in the devices to manage these measures.

    ▪ Campaigns of education and communication promoted by cities and companies.

    ▪ Equity policies to remove barriers that limit the accessibility to shared e-scooters: pricing discount programs, lack of smart technology for managing subscriptions, location of devices in areas of disadvantaged communities, vehicle design to avoid standing riding, etc.

    ▪ Development of Mobility platforms to integrated the whole fleet of shared e-scooters in only one app, and extension to other transport modes to promote the role of feeder solution for public transport.

    ▪ Systematic evaluation for the monitoring of the services, requiring collaboration from companies sharing their mobility data with cities.

    Based on the current situation of shared e-scooter services, there are still a need of knowledge at three different levels of analysis: understanding the role of this type of mobility solutions in the global transport system, guidelines and strategies for a competitive service design and operating measures for an efficient management of the day-to-day deployment.

    Download full text (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 15.
    Berg Wincent, Boel
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Access distance to e-scooters: Analysis of app use and trip data in Stockholm2023In: Journal of Cycling and Micromobility Research, ISSN 2950-1059, p. 100004-100004, article id 100004Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Users’ access distance to shared micromobility services is an important component of travel patterns, a determinant of travel choices, and input to determining service catchment areas. Users’ willingness to walk to shared micromobility vehicles is increasingly relevant as policymakers regulate shared free-floating e-scooters to designated parking zones. This paper proposes a novel approach to analyze access distances of e-scooters users based on e-scooter app use and trip data for Stockholm, Sweden. Euclidean access and map-based walking distances are derived from the distances between the location where the users opens the app to search for an e-scooter and the trip’s origin. Variations in access and walking distances are analyzed based on time of day, day of week, proximity to public transportation, and geographical distribution. Users walk on average 185 m and have an active walking time of 2.3 min with a median value of 95 m and 2.1 min. Shorter walking distances are observed for trips during the morning and lunch hours compared to the afternoon and at night. Furthermore, users walk slightly longer during the weekend compared to weekdays. Access distances are shortest within a 0–100 m radius to the nearest public transportation station. The suggested catchment area radius for shared e-scooters ranges from 128 m to 203 m, based on the 75th percentile of access distances. A policy implication is the importance of planning parking zones for e-scooters very close to public transportation to encourage multimodal trips.

  • 16.
    Berg Wincent, Boel
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Attitudes and perceptions of shared e-scooter parking in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö2023Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 17. Berg Wincent, Boel
    et al.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Parkering av elsparkcyklar: Enkätundersökning av effekter och åsikter kring parkeringsförbudet i Stockholm, Göteborg och Malmö2023Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Den 1 september 2022 infördes ett nationellt parkeringsförbud för elsparkcyklar i Sverige. Parkeringsförbudet innebar att delade elsparkcyklar enbart fick parkeras på särskilda platser för elsparkcyklar eller på cykelparkeringar. Stockholms stad och Malmö stad valde två olika utformningar av parkeringssystem för elsparkcyklar medan Göteborgs stad valde att skjuta upp införandet med hjälp av lokala trafikföreskrifter. Den här enkätstudien undersöker effekter och åsikter kring parkeringsförbudet hos delade elsparkcykelanvändare i Stockholm, Göteborg och Malmö. Syftet med enkätundersökningen är att förstå vad användarna har för önskemål och attityder relaterat till parkering av elsparkcyklar.

    Enkäten togs fram under hösten 2022 och skickades ut till elsparkcykeloperatören Vois användare i Stockholm, Malmö och Göteborg den 17 november 2022. Totalt inkom 1584 svar. 965 användare från Stockholm, 145 användare från Göteborg och 159 användare från Malmö ingick i det slutliga urvalet som låg till grund för resultatet. Majoriteten av användarna från alla tre städer var heltidsanställda, boende inom Vois driftzon, hade minst en eftergymnasial utbildning och var av manligt kön. Ålder och årsinkomst varierade något mellan städerna. Användare i Stockholm hade i genomsnitt använt 2,7 elsparkcykeloperatörer senaste sex månaderna medan användare i Göteborg hade använt 2,6 och i Malmö 2,2. I Stockholm och Göteborg var den vanligaste användarfrekvensen en eller flera gånger per vecka medan det i Malmö var en eller flera gånger per månad.

    Användarna i Stockholm och Malmö uppgav att deras användarfrekvens, gångtid och åktid för resor med elsparkcyklar hade påverkats efter 1 september. Användarna i Göteborg rapporterade i lägre utsträckning att deras användning hade påverkats efter 1 september 2022. Mest positiva till parkeringsförbudet var användarna i Stockholm medan användarna i Malmö var mest negativt inställda. Användarna upplevde att införandet av parkeringsförbudet inneburit mer ordning och reda i stadsmiljön men att tillgången till elsparkcyklar och möjligheten att parkera nära destination hade blivit sämre. Täthet och placering av parkeringszonerna för elsparkcyklar var de aspekterna som användarna i Stockholm och Malmö var mest missnöjda med samtidigt som det var de aspekterna som användarna i Göteborg ansåg som viktigast.

    Utöver täthet och placering frågades även användarna om storlek, tydlighet och enkelhet i parkeringssystemet samt hur operatörens app användes för att hitta parkering. Genomgående var användarna i Stockholm mindre missnöjda med utformningen av parkeringssystemet i jämförelse med användarna i Malmö. Det tolkas som att Stockholms stad har lyckats bättre med elsparkcykelparkering ur ett användarperspektiv. Fler än hälften av användarna i alla tre städer hade gjort en kombinerad resa med elsparkcykel och kollektivtrafik. Användarna i Malmö hade i högst utsträckning gjort multimodala resor med elsparkcykel och kollektivtrafik, men uppgav i lägst utsträckning att det var lätt att parkera vid en hållplats eller station. Möjligheten att parkera vid kollektivtrafik är viktigt att beakta om uppmuntran till multimodala resor med elsparkcyklar och kollektivtrafik är av prioritet.

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  • 18.
    Berg Wincent, Boel
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Shared e-scooters: A last-minute mode?Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 19.
    Berg Wincent, Boel
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Shared E-Scooters: The Last-Minute Mode2023Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 20.
    Burghout, Wilco
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Danielsson, Anna
    Linköping University.
    Gundlegård, David
    Linköping University.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Rydergren, Clas
    Linköping University.
    Multimodal Traffic Management: Project Report2024Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    New systems for combining modes of transport, for example Mobility as a Service (MaaS), provide new opportunities for road users to switch between different means of transport. At the same time, large amounts of data from both the public transport network and the road traffic network as well as multimodal data from mobile networks in combination with new methods for estimating travel patterns divided by means of transport provide opportunities for a completely new understanding of multimodal travel patterns in a city. Understanding how multimodal travel patterns develop over time provides new opportunities to develop effective tools for multimodal traffic management.

    The overall goal of the project is to enable improved accessibility in the transport systems through more efficient traffic management. More specifically, the project aims to develop new methods for estimating multimodal demand as well as mode of transport and route selection for multimodal traffic management. Furthermore, potential effects of multimodal traffic management should be analysed.

    The project includes a literature survey for analysis of potential and challenges of multimodal traffic management. An explorative analysis based on unsupervised learning is performed for identification of typical network-wide mobility patterns. Route and mode choice is predicted using statistical models. A five-week multimodal dataset for Stockholm including large-scale mobility data for the road network and smartcard data for the public transport network is compiled for the explorative analysis as well as evaluation of the route and mode choice models in the context of traffic management.

    Based on the literature survey, we can conclude that simultaneous management of road and public transport has the potential to reduce congestion and ensure efficient movement of travelers in an urban area. There are several motives for integrated management of multiple modes, where the most important are potential demand shifts to public transport, improved robustness for the transport system, and better prioritization of traffic management actions. The main challenges are collaboration between stakeholders, information sharing, and data fusion.

    The results of the explorative analysis based on unsupervised learning indicate that day clustering can be useful in scenario evaluation, but also serve as input to short-term prediction providing a simple and robust prediction method with a MAPE prediction error of 10-15%.

    The route choice analysis showed that a model based on a route set with generated routes is more responsive to travel time changes than a model based on only observed routes, which is useful for predicting the effect of traffic management actions. A route choice model with only travel time is a common simplification to use for prediction route choices. However, the result in this study shows that including more attributes significantly improves the performance of the models.

    The analysis of network-wide multimodal data for 5 weeks in Stockholm indicates that it is possible to estimate how mode share between public transport and other modes of transport varies in space and time. A better understanding of spatiotemporal variation of mode share is an important input to improved decision support in multimodal traffic management.

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  • 21.
    Cats, Oded
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Traffic Research, CTR. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Ferranti, Francesco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Rubensson, Isak
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Kolkowski, Lukas
    TU Delft.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Unravelling Mobility Patterns using Longitudinal Smart Card Data: Final report for Trafik och Region 2019SLL-KTH research project2021Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Background

    This project followed-up on a project called FairAccess which was granted in Trafik och Region 2018.In FairAccess, we processed Access card data and performed a sequence of inferences to derive timedependent origin-destination matrices for the entire Region Stockholm system. Tap-in records werematched with corresponding inferred tap-out locations and time stamps for about 80% of all records.Moreover, we implemented an algorithm to generate a journey database based on our transferinference method. We used the outputs of this process to evaluate the impacts of the fare schemechange (i.e. from zone-based to flat fare) on different user profiles. Access card products and zonalattributes were used for analysing policy impacts on different market segments.The “Unravelling Mobility Patterns using Longitudinal Smart Card Data” project was granted on May27, 2020 and the contract was signed on July 17, 2020. In this project, we capitalise on the capabilitiesof the inferences performed in previous work to conduct a series of market segmentation andadvanced data analytics to empirically analysis demand patterns for public transport in the StockholmCounty. The growing travel demand in Stockholm County is accompanied by an increased diversity ofsub-centres within the region as well as in individual travel patterns. It is thus increasingly importantto understand how demand patterns evolve over time, what the key market segments are and howdifferent users are affected by changes in service provision. The latter is studied in the contact of theopening of the Citybanan project.As stated in the SLL Research and Innovation Plan, the development of transport solutions for theStockholm region requires new knowledge regarding travellers’ needs and preferences, and theimpacts for different types of travellers. 

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  • 22.
    Cats, Oded
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. Delft Univ Technol, Dept Transport & Planning, Delft, Netherlands..
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Beyond a complete failure: The impact of partial capacity degradation on public transport network vulnerability2018In: Transportmetrica B: Transport Dynamics, ISSN 2168-0566, Vol. 6, no 2, p. 77-96Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Disruptions in public transport networks (PTNs) often lead to partial capacity reductions rather than complete closures. This study aims to move beyond the vulnerability analysis of complete failures by investigating the impacts of a range of capacity reductions on PTN performance. The relation between network performance and the degradation of line or link capacities is investigated by establishing a vulnerability curve and related metrics. The analysis framework is applied to a full-scan analysis of planned temporary line-level capacity reductions and an analysis of unplanned link-level capacity reductions on the most central segments in the multi-modal rapid PTN of Stockholm, Sweden. The impacts of capacity reductions are assessed using a non-equilibrium dynamic public transport operations and assignment model. The nonlinear properties of on-board crowding, denied boarding, network effects and route choice result in non-trivial, generally convex, relations which carry implications on disruption planning and real-time management.

  • 23.
    Cats, Oded
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Beyond a complete failure: The impact of partial capacity reductions on public transport network vulnerability2015Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Disruptions often result with partial capacity reduction without resulting with a complete breakdown. This study aims to move beyond the analysis of complete failure by investigating the impacts of partial capacity reduction on public transport network performance. We analyse the relation between the extent of capacity reduction at the line level and its consequences on societal costs by performing a full network scan. This analysis framework is applied to planned temporary disruptions in the rapid public transport network in Stockholm, Sweden. Our results indicate that the network is highly vulnerable since it is characterized by greater negative impacts in a disproportional relation to the increase in the original capacity reduction. The non-linear properties of network effects and route choice result in non-trivial relation which carry implications on disruption management the deployment of mitigation measures.

  • 24.
    Cats, Oded
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Traffic and Logistics.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Traffic and Logistics.
    Dynamic Vulnerability Analysis of Public Transport Networks: Mitigation Effects of Real-Time Information2014In: Networks and Spatial Economics, ISSN 1566-113X, E-ISSN 1572-9427, Vol. 14, no 3-4, p. 435-463Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, a dynamic and stochastic notion of public transport network vulnerability is developed. While previous studies have considered only the network topology, the granular nature of services requires a more refined model for supply and demand interactions in order to evaluate the impacts of disruptions. We extend the measures of betweenness centrality (often used to identify potentially important links) and link importance to a dynamic-stochastic setting from the perspectives of both operators and passengers. We also formalize the value of real-time information (RTI) provision for reducing disruption impacts. The developed measures are applied in a case study for the high-frequency public transport network of Stockholm, Sweden. The importance ranking of the links varies depending on the RTI provision scheme. The results suggest that betweenness centrality (passenger/vehicle flows) may not be a good indicator of link importance. The results of the case study reveal that while service disruptions have negative effects and RTI may have significant positive influence, counter examples also exist due to secondary spillover effects.

  • 25.
    Cats, Oded
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. Department of Transport and Planning, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands .
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Planning for the Unexpected: The Value of Reserve Capacity for Public Transport Network Robustness2015In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 81, p. 47-61Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Public transport networks (PTN) are subject to recurring service disruptions. Most studies of the robustness of PTN have focused on network topology and considered vulnerability in terms of connectivity reliability. While these studies provide insights on general design principles, there is lack of knowledge concerning the effectiveness of different strategies to reduce the impacts of disruptions. This paper proposes and demonstrates a methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of a strategic increase in capacity on alternative PTN links to mitigate the impact of unexpected network disruptions. The evaluation approach consists of two stages: identifying a set of important links and then for each identified important link, a set of capacity enhancement schemes is evaluated. The proposed method integrates stochastic supply and demand models, dynamic route choice and limited operational capacity. This dynamic agent-based modelling of network performance enables to capture cascading network effects as well as the adaptive redistribution of passenger flows. An application for the rapid PTN of Stockholm, Sweden, demonstrates how the proposed method could be applied to sequentially designed scenarios based on their performance indicators. The method presented in this paper could support policy makers and operators in prioritizing measures to increase network robustness by improving system capacity to absorb unexpected disruptions.

  • 26.
    Cats, Oded
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Traffic and Logistics.
    The impact of reserve capacity on public transport network resilience2013Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The resilience of the transport system is acknowledged as an important policy objective. Resilience refers to the extent to which a system is affected by various disturbances, and its capability to recover from such disturbances and restore its level of performance. Public transport networks (PTN) are subject to recurring service disruptions. However, most studies on transport network resilience have focused on the physical degradation of the road network. Hence, their findings have limited transferability to the PTN context. Previous studies on PTN resilience have considered vulnerability in terms of connectivity reliability. Graph theory principles were used to analyze the impact of network structure on robustness with respect to random and intentional attacks. Such analysis allows the comparison of alternative network design properties. However, it does not capture many of the PTN features that we believe are essential for analyzing its resilience.The underlying principles of PTN design and operations make it fundamentally different from road networks and potentially more vulnerable. PTN are usually less dense than the underlying road network, resulting in fewer alternative paths. Moreover, PTN operate close to capacity due to the increasing marginal operation cost during the peak period. In addition, PTN exercise discontinuity in time and space, inducing varying and stochastic waiting, walking and transfer times. Stochastictravel times arise from the inherent and interdependent underlying sources of uncertainty. Another matter thatneeds to be taken into account is that PTN are often multimodal, consisting of several independent infrastructures. As a result of these characteristics, service disruptions in the PTN have wider direct implications compared to the road network due to theescalating impacts on service availability and capacity further downstream. We develop an analysis framework for PTN resilience. The framework integrates stochastic supply and demand models, dynamic route choice and limited operational capacity. Moreover,the plausible correlation between degraded capacities among network elements is captured through the dynamic modellingof network performance. The criticality of a link is evaluated as the increase in system travel time due to a capacity reduction of the link. In general, criticality depends on the flow on the link and the availability of alternative paths in the PTN. We analyze the influence of the capacity of alternative paths on the criticality of a link. High volume to capacity ratios on neighboring links suggest that the effects of the initial disruption can cascade to the surrounding network and lead to severe impacts for many travellers. Further, we analyze the potential of increasing network resilience by increasing capacity on alternative links in response to disruptions. This implies operational strategies such as increasing the frequency on existing lines, or running replacement lines for the disrupted line. This analysis thus enables the evaluation of alternative mitigation measures designed to improve network resilience.

  • 27.
    Cats, Oded
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Traffic and Logistics. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    The value of new cross-radial links for public transport network resilience2014Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The introduction of new links to network topology could potentially contrib-ute to greater capability to withstand system breakdowns. This paper analyses the value of adding new cross-radial links for public transport network resilience. The value is evaluated in terms of passenger welfare under disruptions. Using a model that considers passengers’ dynamic travel choices, stochastic traffic conditions, timetables and capacity constraints, a new light rail transit line in Stockholm, Sweden is evaluated. The results show that the cross-radial link reduces the impacts of disrup-tions of critical links; the total value of resilience is positive and significantly offsets the loss in welfare caused by disruption of the cross-radial link itself.

  • 28. Cats, Oded
    et al.
    Jenelius, Erik
    Vulnerability analysis of public transport networks: A dynamic approach and case study for Stockholm2012Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, a dynamic and stochastic notion of public transport network vulnerability is develoepd. While previous studies have considered only the network topology, the non-continuous availability of services requires a more refined model for supply and demand interactions in order to evaluate the impacts of disruptions. We extend the measures of betweenness centrality (often used to identify po-tentially important links) and link importance to a dynamic-stochastic setting from the perspectives of both operators and passengers. We also formalize the value of real-time information (RTI) provision for reducing disruption impacts. The developed measures are applied in a case study for the high-frequency public transport network of Stockholm, Sweden. The importance ranking of the links varies depending on the RTI provision scheme. This suggests that RTI may have significant positive but also negative influence on disruption impacts, and that betweenness centrality (passenger/vehicle flows) may not be a good indicator of link importance.

    Download full text (pdf)
    PTvulnerability
  • 29.
    Cats, Oded
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Traffic Research, CTR. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Rubensson, Isak
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Kholodov, Yaroslav
    Vermeulen, Alex
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Susilo, Yusak
    How fair is the fare? Estimating travel patterns and the impacts of fare schemes for different user groups in Stockholm based on smartcard data: Final report for Trafik och Region 2018 SLL-KTH research project2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    There is a rapid increase in the deployment, acquisition and analysis of automated fare collection (AFC) systems, enabling a profound change in the ability to analyze high-volume data that relate to observed passenger travel behavior and recurrent patterns. The analysis of such passively collected data offers direct access to a continuous flow of observed passenger behavior at a large scale, saving expensive data collection efforts. For a review of the spectrum of applications – from strategic demand estimation to operational service performance measurements.

    The FairAccess project leverages on the availability of Access-kort data for the vast majority of trips performed in Stockholm County. The overarching goal of this project is to develop means to analyse empirically the impacts of policy/planning measures based on disaggregate passively collected smart card data. This involves a series of analysis and modelling challenges. We develop and apply a series algorithms to infer of tap-out locations, infer vehicles and travel times, and infer transfers to that journeys can be composed. Tap-in records have been matched with corresponding inferred tap-out locations and time stamps for about 80% of all records. Thereafter, we construct time-dependent origin-destination matrices for which segmentations can be performed with respect to geographical and user product features.

    We demonstrate the approach and algorithms developed by performing a before-after analysis of the fare scheme change from zone-based to flat fares. We analyse changes in travel patterns and derive price elasticities for distinctive market segments. The introduced fare policy delivered the desirable result of an increased ridership through improved convenience of the single-use products. Nevertheless, the significance of the service convenience component was underestimated, which resulted in the price adjustments being not in line with the mobility effects.

    The planning and development of the Stockholm public transport system must rely on the best empirical foundations available to support evidence-based decision-making and make the right priorities. To this end, the development and analysis performed in the FairAccess project lay a necessary foundation for further methodological developments and analyses such as on-board crowding evaluation, demand forecasting and identifying user groups.

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  • 30.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Gunldegård, David
    Linköping university.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Similarity and Interchangeability of Flow and Speed Data for Transport Network Day-Type Clustering and PredictionManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Prediction of future traffic states is an essential part of traffic management and intelligent transportation systems. Previous work has shown that spatio-temporal clustering of traffic data such as flows or speeds into network day-types improves both the performance and the robustness of traffic predictions. Since some data types may not be available at a network-wide level, or only for certain periods, this paper investigates how similar such representative day-types are if based on different data types. The similarity of day-type clusters is evaluated with qualitative calendar visualization and two quantitative metrics, the Adjusted Mutual Information (AMI) which considers day-to-cluster assignments, and a new proposed Centroids Similarity Score (CSS) which compares centroids. The paper also explores the impact on flow and speed prediction performance of substituting one data type for the other in the clustering or classification phases. Using microwave sensor data from the Stockholm motorway network, our findings show that clusterings based on flows and speeds and across a range of clustering methods have reasonably high similarity. CSS is found to be a more relevant similarity indicator than AMI in the prediction application context. By capturing more relevant traffic state information, flow-based clustering and classification are robust for both flow and speed predictions, while speed-based clustering significantly degrades flow prediction performance.

  • 31.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Tatiana, Babicheva
    Laboratoire DAVID, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, 45 Avenue des Etats-Unis, Versailles, France..
    Leffler, David
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Integrating Demand Responsive Services into Public Transport Disruption Management2021In: IEEE Open Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems, ISSN 2687-7813, Vol. 2, p. 24-36Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    High-capacity public transport services such as metro and commuter trains are efficient during normal operations but are vulnerable to disruptions. To manage disruptions, bridging buses are commonly called in to replace the rail-based service along the disrupted lines. These often take significant time to arrive and are costly to keep stand-by. Demand-responsive transport such as taxi can respond to demand almost immediately but is costly and must usually be arranged by the individual travelers. This study examines the integration and potential role of demand-responsive transport in disruption management. The analysis considers the impacts of limiting the serving area, varying the number of available vehicles, pursuing ride-sharing, as well as a system-of-systems approach with collaboration between taxis and bridging buses. Results of computational experiments on the case study of Stockholm, Sweden reveal that integration of demand-responsive transport in the disruption management can bring large positive benefits in terms of average and maximum waiting times for travelers. This is especially the case for strategies including ridesharing. It is also shown that appropriate trade-offs between desired waiting times and costs can be achieved by collaboration of both bridging buses and demand-responsive transport. Additionally, more robust public transport with increased reliability during disruptions can increase sustainability as more people may choose public transport instead of private cars.

  • 32.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Gundlegård, David
    Department of Science and Technology,Linköping University.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    3D Speed Maps and Mean Observations Vectors for Short-Term Urban Traffic Prediction2019In: TRB Annual Meeting Online, Washington DC, US, 2019, p. 1-20Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    City-wide travel time prediction in real-time is an important enabler for efficient use of the road network. It can be used in traveler information to enable more efficient routing of individual vehicles as well as decision support for traffic management applications such as directed information campaigns or incident management. 3D speed maps have been shown to be a promising methodology for revealing day-to-day regularities of city-level travel times and possibly also for short-term prediction. In this paper, we aim to further evaluate and benchmark the use of 3D speed maps for short-term travel time prediction and to enable scenario-based evaluation of traffic management actions we also evaluate the framework for traffic flow prediction. The 3D speed map methodology is adapted to short-term prediction and benchmarked against historical mean as well as against Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis (PPCA). The benchmarking and analysis are made using one year of travel time and traffic flow data for the city of Stockholm, Sweden. The result of the case study shows very promising results of the 3D speed map methodology for short-term prediction of both travel times and traffic flows. The modified version of the 3D speed map prediction outperforms the historical mean prediction as well as the PPCA method. Further work includes an extended evaluation of the method for different conditions in terms of underlying sensor infrastructure, preprocessing and spatio-temporal aggregation as well as benchmarking against other prediction methods.

  • 33.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Gundlegård, David
    Linköping University.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    High-resolution public transport mode share estimation from mobile network and smart card data2023Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 34.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Gundlegård, David
    Linköping University.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Real-time city-level traffic prediction in the context of Stockholm City2019Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: The ongoing POST (Prediktions- och Scenariobaserad Trafikledning) project and the previous project Mobile Millennium Stockholm (MMS) provided tools and frameworks for real-time estimation and prediction of travel times on the city-level. City-level prediction of the traffic state as well as the traffic demand is important for both traveler information applications, such as online navigation, and traffic management applications, such as scenario evaluation of incident management strategies. However, city-level prediction is very challenging and requires efficient processing of large amounts of data. Here we present the recent research about effects of the clustering on the prediction performance and computational cost. Partitioning of the road network based on spatial and temporal attributes can potentially result in clusters that provide more robust and accurate prediction with reasonable bias-variance tradeoff. 

    Methods: The effects of the clustering on the prediction performance are studied on the three case studies, representing different travel time sources in Stockholm city. First represent 15 MCS radars as the sources of travel times. Second 420 segments on the major roads around Stockholm with travel times estimated from the MCS radars. Third, travel times of 11,340 links processed from GPS data of 1,500 taxis operating in Stockholm. With the computational experiments, we studied different clustering approaches based on the day classification, functional classes, spatial locations and temporal attributes, and how they can effect the prediction performance and computational cost.

    Results: reveal that partitioning can significantly improve the prediction accuracy and rapidly decrease the computational cost and time.

    Download full text (pdf)
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  • 35.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Gundlegård, David
    Linköping University.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Spatio-Temporal Public Transport Mode Share Estimation and Analysis Using Mobile Network and Smart Card Data2023In: 2023 IEEE 26th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), 2023, p. 2543-2548Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Public transport plays a vital role in society and the urban environment. However, knowledge of its spatial and temporal shares is often limited to traditional travel surveys. Recently, there has been substantial progress in mobility data collection, including data from traffic, public transport, and mobile phones. Especially mobile network data is a large-scale and affordable source of high-level mobility records. Similarly, public transport smart cards or ticket validation data are being collected and made available in major cities. The contribution of this study is to unveil the potential of estimating public transport shares, by merging mobile and smart card data. Stockholm, Sweden, is used as a case study. We analyze and discuss spatio-temporal patterns of estimated public transport shares for Stockholm, using descriptive and cluster analysis. The typical representative day-types are revealed and analyzed. Finally, a regression analysis considering the weather and socioeconomic context is conducted. It provides a highly explanatory and predictive understanding of which factors impact the share of public transport in Stockholm. To conclude, combined mobile and smart card data offers a cost-efficient, large-scale, low spatio-temporal aggregation (capturing daily and hourly variations) alternative to traditional travel surveys for analyzing PT shares.

  • 36.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Babicheva, Tatiana
    VEDECOM.
    Leffler, David
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning. VEDECOM.
    Public transport disruption management by collaboration with demand responsive services2020Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    For large cities, public transport represents the backbone for commuters and thus plays a crucial role for society and for the economy. High-capacity public transport services such as metro and commuter trains are efficient during normal operations but are vulnerable to disruptions. Metro and commuter train disruptions can be handled in several ways. Very common are bridging buses that are called in to replace the rail-based service along the disrupted lines. These often take significant time to arrive and are costly to keep stand-by. Demand-responsive transport such as taxi can respond to demand almost immediately but is costly and must usually be arranged by the individual travelers. This study examines the integration and potential role of demand-responsive transport in disruption management. The analysis considers the impacts of limiting the serving area, varying the number of available vehicles, pursuing ridesharing, as well as a system-of-systems approach with collaboration between taxis and bridging buses. Results of computational experiments on the case study of Stockholm, Sweden reveal that integration of demand-responsive transport in the disruption management can bring large positive benefits in terms of average and maximum waiting times for travelers. This is especially the case for strategies including ridesharing. It is also shown that appropriate trade-offs between desired waiting times and costs can be achieved by collaboration of both bridging buses and demand-responsive transport. Additionally, it is expected that more robust public transport with increased reliability during disruptions can increase sustainability as more people may choose public transport instead of private cars.

  • 37.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Integrated framework for real-time urban network travel time prediction on sparse probe data2018In: IET Intelligent Transport Systems, ISSN 1751-956X, E-ISSN 1751-9578, Vol. 12, no 1, p. 66-74Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The study presents the methodology and system architecture of an integrated urban road network travel time prediction framework based on low-frequency probe vehicle data. Intended applications include real-time network traffic management, vehicle routing and information provision. The framework integrates methods for receiving a stream of probe vehicle data, map matching and path inference, link travel time estimation, calibration of prediction model parameters and network travel time prediction in real time. The system design satisfies three crucial aspects: computational efficiency of prediction, internal consistency between components and robustness against noisy and missing data. Prediction is based on a multivariate hybrid method of probabilistic principal component analysis, which captures global correlation patterns between links and time intervals, and local smoothing, which considers local correlations among neighbouring links. Computational experiments for the road network of Stockholm, Sweden and probe data from taxis show that the system provides high accuracy for both peak and off-peak traffic conditions. The computational efficiency of the framework makes it capable of real-time prediction for large-scale networks. For links with large speed variations between days, prediction significantly outperforms the historical mean. Furthermore, prediction is reliable also for links with high proportions of missing data.

  • 38.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Spatio-Temporal Partitioning of Large Urban Networks for Travel Time Prediction2018In: 2018 21ST INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS (ITSC), IEEE , 2018, p. 1390-1395Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper explores the potential of spatiotemporal network partitioning for travel time prediction accuracy and computational costs in the context of large-scale urban road networks (including motorways/freeways, arterials and urban streets). Forecasting in this context is challenging due to the complexity, heterogeneity, noisy data, unexpected events and the size of the traffic network. The proposed spatio-temporal network partitioning methodology is versatile, and can be applied for any source of travel time data and multivariate travel time prediction method. A case study of Stockholm, Sweden considers a network exceeding 11,000 links and uses taxi probe data as the source of travel times data. To predict the travel times the Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis (PPCA) is used. Results show that the spatio-temporal network partitioning provides a more appropriate bias-variance tradeoff, and that prediction accuracy and computational costs are improved by considering the proper number of clusters towards robust large-scale travel time prediction.

  • 39.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Gundlegård, David
    Department of Science and Technology, Linköping university, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning. Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Revealing representative day-types in transport networks using traffic data clustering2023In: Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems / Taylor & Francis, ISSN 1547-2450, E-ISSN 1547-2442, p. 1-24Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Recognition of spatio-temporal traffic patterns at the network-wide level plays an important role in data-driven intelligent transport systems (ITS) and is a basis for applications such as short-term prediction and scenario-based traffic management. Common practice in the transport literature is to rely on well-known general unsupervised machine-learning methods (e.g., k-means, hierarchical, spectral, DBSCAN) to select the most representative structure and number of day-types based solely on internal evaluation indices. These are easy to calculate but are limited since they only use information in the clustered dataset itself. In addition, the quality of clustering should ideally be demonstrated by external validation criteria, by expert assessment or the performance in its intended application. The main contribution of this paper is to test and compare the common practice of internal validation with external validation criteria represented by the application to short-term prediction, which also serves as a proxy for more general traffic management applications. When compared to external evaluation using short-term prediction, internal evaluation methods have a tendency to underestimate the number of representative day-types needed for the application. Additionally, the paper investigates the impact of using dimensionality reduction. By using just 0.1% of the original dataset dimensions, very similar clustering and prediction performance can be achieved, with up to 20 times lower computational costs, depending on the clustering method. K-means and agglomerative clustering may be the most scalable methods, using up to 60 times fewer computational resources for very similar prediction performance to the p-median clustering.

  • 40.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Gundlegård, David
    Linköping University.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Using flows or speeds in traffic pattern clustering and prediction: does the data type matter?2022Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Data and knowledge of travel patterns play a key role in finding more cost-effective solutions and better utilization of existing resources to increase sustainability and decrease CO2 emissions, pollution, and noise. Understanding travel patterns and prediction of future traffic states is a central ingredient in Intelligent transport systems (ITS). Pre-clustering the data before applying the prediction models is a recommended practice. We consider in this work revealing day-to-day traffic regularities and grouping days into representative day-types based on their traffic similarities before training prediction models. Specifically for this presentation, we will present our recent work on day-type clusterings that concern the similarities and interchangeability of day-types recognized by flow and speed traffic measurements. We consider the speed and flow traffic measurements from the motorway control system in the highway system around Stockholm, Sweden. Different clustering methods are used and their performance is evaluated on short-term prediction models. The results reveal that day-types are similar across data types and clustering methods, and their similarity does not depend much on the number of clusters. As the baseline scenario, calendar-based day-types are used. The similarity is higher between flow and speed recognized day-types compare to calendar-based day-types. Considering short-term prediction performance, the data-driven day-types outperform calendar-based methods. However, for more sophisticated prediction models the difference becomes insignificant. The interchangeability of speeds and flows in traffic prediction is studied in a scenario where new days are classified into day-types based on speed observations. This could be particularly interesting for traffic management centers as speed observations may be collected in more affordable, sustainable, and scalable ways. However, results reveal that flow prediction is sensitive to whether the new day is classified to one of the clusters using speed instead of flow observations, and prediction performance is reduced by about 28%. This sensitivity can be overcome by using a more sophisticated prediction model. When classifying based on flow observations a more sophisticated model results in slight improvements in speed prediction.

  • 41.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Gunldegård, David
    Linköping university.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Revealing representative day-types in transport networks using traffic data clusteringManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Recognition of spatio-temporal traffic patterns at the network-wide level plays an important role in data-driven intelligent transport systems (ITS) and is a basis for applications such as short-term prediction and scenario-based traffic management. Common practice in the transport literature is to rely on well-known general unsupervised machine-learning methods (e.g., k-means, hierarchical, spectral, DBSCAN) to select the most representative structure and number of day-types based solely on internal evaluation indices. These are easy to calculate but are limited since they only use information in the clustered dataset itself. In addition, the quality of clustering should ideally be demonstrated by external validation criteria, by expert assessment or the performance in its intended application. The main contribution of this paper is to test and compare the common practice of internal validation with external validation criteria represented by the application to short-term prediction, which also serves as a proxy for more general traffic management applications. When compared to external evaluation using short-term prediction, internal evaluation methods have a tendency to underestimate the number of representative day-types needed for the application. Additionally, the paper investigates the impact of using dimensionality reduction. By using just 0.1\% of the original dataset dimensions, very similar clustering and prediction performance can be achieved, with up to 20 times lower computational costs, depending on the clustering method. K-means and agglomerative clustering may be the most scalable methods, using up to 60 times fewer computational resources for very similar prediction performance to the p-median clustering.

  • 42.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Vermeulen, Alex
    TU Delft.
    Cats, Oded
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Traffic Research, CTR. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning. TU Delft.
    Kholodov, Yaroslav
    TU Delft.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Generating Network-Wide Travel Diaries and OD Matrices Using Stockholm County Smartcard Data2020Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Bakgrund: The public transport system in Stockholm extends across the greater Stockholm area, covering ca 6,500 km2 and 2.3 million inhabitants. The system includes 21 commuter train, metro, light rail and tram lines spanning ca 470 km, around 490 bus lines spanning ca 9,100 km, and a number of ferry lines (SLL 2016). The main ticketing system is the Access system, which uses electronic tickets that are loaded onto contactless cards. The system was introduced in limited scale in 2008 and the average number of ticket validations per day has since grown to 1.9 million in 2018. Trafikförvaltningen, Region Stockholm is collecting access smartcard data for several years. Just for year 2017 smartcard data consist of approximately 680 million tap-in records. The majority of tap-ins are recorded at metro gates (45%) and upon boarding buses (41%) while the remaining consists of commuter trains, trams, and ferries. Each card has a unique number, which allows it to be traced and construct the complete journeys and travel diaries. There is a big potential in using these data for different analysis, evaluation, and planning of public transport. We present the framework that enables processing of raw access data in fusion with AVL and network data to the network-wide travel diaries. Furthermore, the estimated OD matrices can be used for measuring the impacts of various interventions such as fare policy and service design changes. The inferred travel diaries also allow for extracting passenger loads for each vehicle trip segment across the network at the same resolution as the flow outputs of schedule-based transit assignment models.

    Metod: Tickets are validated upon access to stations or boarding of vehicles but not on egress or alighting. In other words, the Access system is “tap-in only”. We propose a method to estimate the alighting station in a multimodal public transport system, where tap-in transactions are observed in a complex network. Similar to previous literature it is assumed that the alighting occurs within a certain distance of the next transaction. Furthermore, vehicle and time inference using AVL data is performed. Trip elements are assessed individually resulting in individual travel diaries.

    Resultat och slutsats: The implemented inference algorithms and the derived travel diaries facilitate the construction of OD matrices that are essential input for services planning. The performance of the inferring algorithms is: for the alighting station: 87%; for travel time 70% using AVL data exclusively; considering all trips even without alighting station 86% of all journeys have inferred destination; from which 73% have travel time estimated.

  • 43.
    Chen, Haoye
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE).
    Hatzenbühler, Jonas
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning. KTH Royal Inst Technol, Div Transport Planning, Brinellvagen 23, S-10044 Stockholm, Sweden..
    Pick-Up and Delivery Problem for Sequentially Consolidated Urban Transportation with Mixed and Multi-Pupropse Vehicle Fleet2022In: Journal of Advanced Transportation, ISSN 0197-6729, E-ISSN 2042-3195, Vol. 2022, article id 2920532Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Different urban transportation flows (e.g., passenger journeys, freight distribution, and waste management) are conventionally separately handled by corresponding single-purpose vehicles (SVs). The multi-purpose vehicle (MV) is a novel vehicle concept that can enable the sequential sharing of different transportation flows by changing the so-called modules, thus theoretically improving the efficiency of urban transportation through the utilization of higher vehicles. In this study, a variant of the pick-up and delivery problem with time windows is established to describe the sequential sharing problem considering both MVs and SVs with features of multiple depots, partial recharging strategies, and fleet sizing. MVs can change their load modules to carry all item types that can also be carried by SVs. To solve the routing problem, an adaptive large neighborhood search (ALNS) algorithm is developed with new problem-specific heuristics. The proposed ALNS is tested on 15 small-size cases and evaluated using a commercial MIP solver. Results show that the proposed algorithm is time-efficient and able to generate robust and high-quality solutions. We investigate the performance of the ALNS algorithm by analyzing convergence and selection probabilities of the heuristic solution that destroy and repair operators. On 15 large-size instances, we compare results for pure SV, pure MV, and mixed fleets, showing that the introduction of MVs can allow smaller fleet sizes while approximately keeping the same total travel distance as for pure SVs.

  • 44.
    Chen, Haoye
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering.
    Kronqvist, Jan
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Optimization and Systems Theory.
    Burghout, Wilco
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Ma, Zhenliang
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Mixed Integer Formulation with Linear Constraints forIntegrated Service Operations and Traveler Choices inMultimodal Mobility Systems2023Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Multimodal mobility systems provide seamless travel by integrating different types of transportation modes. Most existing studies model service operations and travelers’ choices independently or limited in multimodal travel options. We propose a choice-based optimization model for optimal operations of multimodal mobility systems with embedded travelers’ choices using a multinomial logit (MNL) model. We derive a mixed-integer linear formulation for the problem by linearizing transformed MNL constraints with bounded errors. The preliminary experimental test for a small mobility on demand and public transport network shows the model provides a good solution quality.

    Download full text (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 45.
    de Almeida, Constanca Martins Leite
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM).
    Silveira, Semida
    Sustainable Vis Global Ventures AB, S-18131 Lidingo, Sweden..
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Fuso Nerini, Francesco
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems.
    Using the Sustainable Development Goals to Evaluate Possible Transport Policies for the City of Curitiba2021In: Sustainability, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 13, no 21, article id 12222Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Cities across the world are becoming more engaged in tackling climate change and contributing to the achievement of international agreements. The city of Curitiba in Brazil is no exception. In December 2020, the city published PlanClima (Plano Municipal de Mitigacao e Adaptacao as Mudancas Climaticas), a climate plan developed with local and international organizations. PlanClima aims to guide policies and actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change. This study focuses on selecting and qualitatively evaluating transport policies that contribute to the city's 2030 climate and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). With PlanClima's analysis for the transport sector in mind, nine targets for 2030 are identified and connected to different transport policies. To evaluate the possible interactions between the policies and the different dimensions of the SDGs, four types of linkages were designed: essential, uncertain, limited, and opposite. These categories were developed to evaluate the several dimensions in which a policy can have a positive or negative impact. The results show that the implementation of zero emission zones/low emission zones, green public procurement, subsidy schemes for the uptake of clean vehicle technology, and the digitalization of the transport system through smarter public transport and digital platforms that couple bike sharing, taxis, and public transport are some of the measures that can contribute to the achievement of Curitiba's targets and ensure a positive impact on the sustainable development of the city. The study highlights how different policy instruments can contribute to achieve the city's targets, thus providing guidance to policymakers.

  • 46. Ding, Jing
    et al.
    Gao, Song
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Traffic and Logistics. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Rahmani, Mahmood
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Traffic and Logistics.
    Huang, He
    Ma, Long
    Pereira, Francisco
    Ben-Akiva, Moshe
    Routing policy choice set generation in stochastic time-dependent networks: Case studies for Stockholm and Singapore2014Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Transportation systems are inherently uncertain due to the occurrence of random disruptions; meanwhile, real-time traveler information offers the potential to help travelers make better route choices under such disruptions. This paper presents the first revealed preference (RP) study of routing policy choice where travelers opt for routing policies instead of fixed paths. A routing policy is defined as a decision rule applied at each link that maps possible realized traffic conditions to decisions on the link to take next. It represents a traveler's ability to look ahead in order to incorporate real-time information not yet available at the time of decision. An efficient algorithm to find the optimal routing policy (ORP) in large-scale networks is presented, as the algorithm is a building block of any routing policy choice set generation method. Two case studies are conducted in Stockholm, Sweden and Singapore, respectively. Data for the underlying stochastic time-dependent network are generated from taxi Global Positioning System (GPS) traces through the methods of map-matching and non-parametric link travel time estimation. The routing policy choice sets are then generated by link elimination and simulation, in which the ORP algorithm is repetitively executed. The generated choice sets are first evaluated based on whether or not they include the observed GPS traces on a specific day, which is defined as coverage. They are then evaluated on the basis of adaptiveness, defined as the capability of a routing policy to be realized as different paths over different days. It is shown that using a combination of link elimination and simulation methods yield satisfactory coverage. The comparison to a path choice set benchmark suggests that a routing policy choice set could potentially provide better coverage and capture the adaptive nature of route choice. The routing policy choice set generation enables the development of a discrete choice model of routing policy choice, which will be explored in the second stage of the study.

  • 47. Ding, Jing
    et al.
    Gao, Song
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Rahmani, Mahmood
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Huang, He
    Ma, Long
    Pereira, Francisco
    Ben-Akiva, Moshe
    Routing Policy Choice Set Generation in Stochastic Time-Dependent Networks Case Studies for Stockholm, Sweden, and Singapore2014In: Transportation Research Record, ISSN 0361-1981, E-ISSN 2169-4052, no 2466, p. 76-86Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Transportation systems are inherently uncertain because of random disruptions; nevertheless, real-time information can help travelers make better route choices under such disruptions. The first revealed-preference study of routing policy choice is presented. A "routing policy" is defined as a decision rule applied at each link that maps possible realized traffic conditions to decisions to be made on the link next. The policy represents a traveler's ability to incorporate real-time information not yet available at the time of decision. Two case studies are conducted in Stockholm, Sweden, and in Singapore. Data for the underlying stochastic time-dependent network are generated from taxi GPS traces through map-matching and nonparametric link travel time estimation. An efficient algorithm to find the optimal touting policy in large-scale networks is first presented, which is a building block of any routing policy choice set generation method. The routing policy choice sets are then generated by link elimination and simulation. The generated choice sets are first evaluated on the basis of whether they include the observed traces on a specific day, or coverage. The sets are then evaluated on the basis of "adaptiveness," defined as the capability of a routing policy to be realized as different paths over different days. A combination of link elimination and simulation methods yields satisfactory coverage. The comparison with a path choice set benchmark also suggests that a routing policy choice set could potentially provide better coverage and capture the adaptive nature of route choice.

  • 48. Ding, Jing
    et al.
    Gao, Song
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Rahmani, Mahmood
    KTH.
    Pereira, Francisco
    Ben-Akiva, Moshe
    Latent-class routing policy choice model with revealed-preference data2015Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 49. Ding-Mastera, Jing
    et al.
    Gao, Song
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Rahmani, Mahmood
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE).
    Ben-Akiva, Moshe
    A latent-class adaptive routing choice model in stochastic time-dependent networks2019In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 124, p. 1-17Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Transportation networks are inherently uncertain due to random disruptions; meanwhile, real-time information potentially helps travelers adapt to realized traffic conditions and make better route choices under such disruptions. Modeling adaptive route choice behavior is essential in evaluating real-time traveler information systems and related policies. This research contributes to the state of the art by developing a latent-class routing policy choice model in a stochastic time-dependent network with revealed preference data. A routing policy is defined as a decision rule applied at each link that maps possible realized traffic conditions to decisions on the link to take next. It represents a traveler's ability to look ahead in order to incorporate real-time information not yet available at the time of decision. A case study is conducted in Stockholm, Sweden and data for the stochastic time-dependent network are generated from hired taxi Global Positioning System (GPS) readings. A latent-class Policy Size Logit model is specified, with routing policy users who follow routing policies and path users who follow fixed paths. Two additional layers of latency in the measurement equation are accounted for: 1) the choice of a routing policy is latent and only its realized path on a given day can be observed; and 2) when GPS readings have relatively long gaps, the realized path cannot be uniquely identified, and the likelihood of observing vehicle traces with non-consecutive links is instead maximized. Routing policy choice set generation is based on the generalization of path choice set generation methods. The generated choice sets achieve 95% coverage for 100% overlap threshold after correcting GPS mistakes and breaking up trips with intermediate stops, and further achieve 100% coverage for 90% overlap threshold. Estimation results show that the routing policy user class probability increases with trip length, and the latent-class routing policy choice model fits the data better than a single-class path choice or routing policy choice model. This suggests that travelers are heterogeneous in terms of their ability and/or willingness to plan ahead and utilize real-time information, and an appropriate route choice model for uncertain networks should take into account the underlying stochastic travel times and structured traveler heterogeneity in terms of real-time information utilization.

  • 50.
    Dong, Zhiwu
    et al.
    KTH.
    Cebecauer, Matej
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport planning.
    Pattern recognition in dynamic origin-destination matrices using dimensionality reduction and short-term prediction2022Conference paper (Other academic)
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