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  • 1.
    Amelin, M.
    et al.
    KTH, Superseded Departments.
    Söder, L.
    KTH, Superseded Departments.
    On Monte Carlo simulation of electricity markets with uncertainties in precipitation and load forecasts2001In: Power Tech Proceedings, 2001 IEEE Porto, 2001, Vol. 1, p. 6-1Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Long-term planning of a power system requires that the electricity market can be simulated. One important aspect that should be simulated is that the owners of hydro power plants with reservoirs (generally referred to as dispatchable hydro power) are forced to base their scheduling on uncertain forecasts on precipitation and load. It is inevitable that this lack of perfect information has an impact on the operation costs and reliability of the system. Hence, a simulation of an electricity market should include this property of dispatchable hydro, power. This paper shows how the consequences of hydro power planning based on uncertain forecasts can be incorporated in a Monte Carlo model by using random water value errors

  • 2.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    An Evaluation of Intraday Trading and Demand Response for a Predominantly Hydro-Wind System Under Nordic Market Rules2015In: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, ISSN 0885-8950, E-ISSN 1558-0679, Vol. 30, no 1, p. 3-12Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many countries are planning for a large-scale expansion of wind power. This development will have a significant impact on power system operation and economics. One of the challenges is that the difficulty to forecast wind power generation will increase the need for real-time balancing. This paper presents a study of how the impact of wind power forecast errors can be reduced by changes in the market design. The study is based on the conditions in the Nordic electricity market. A characteristic of this market is that there is a large share of flexible hydro generation; hence, ramp and unit commitment constraints rarely constrain dispatch. The need for regulation during real-time is provided in a voluntary real-time balancing market, where players can be compensated for their redispatch costs. Case studies are presented which show that a shift from day-ahead to intraday trading and increased demand response can improve the performance when the share of wind power is increasing.

  • 3.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Comparison of Capacity Credit Calculation Methods for Conventional Power Plants and Wind Power2009In: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, ISSN 0885-8950, E-ISSN 1558-0679, Vol. 24, no 2, p. 685-691Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Several methods for computing capacity credit values of power plants have been presented over the years. This paper uses an empirical approach to investigate and compare different properties of four typical capacity credit definitions. It is shown that the choice of definition indeed can have a significant impact on the results. Concerning three of the analyzed methods, it is found that important factors that influence the capacity credit are the overall generation adequacy and the penetration factor of the power plant; this means that the same generating unit will generally have a higher capacity credit if added to a system with high loss of load probability, and the unit will have a higher capacity credit if its installed capacity is small compared to the total installed capacity of the system. The results of the fourth method only depend on the size and availability of the generating units.

  • 4.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Impact of Trading Arrangements on Imbalance Costs2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Today there are plans for large wind power investments in Sweden as well asin the neighbouring countries. At the same time, there is a developmenttowards increased price sensitivity of the consumers. These two changes arepartially connected to each other, because larger volumes wind power willresult in increased price variations in the spot market as well as the real-timebalancing market, which makes it desirable with consumers who are moreactive in the electricity market.This report studies different factors of the electricity trading arrangements,which are of importance to the efficiency of an electricity market with largevolumes of wind power and increased consumption flexibility. The study isbased on a new simulation model, which calculates the price for the differentphases of the electricity trading using supply and demand curves based onthe forecasts that are available in each phase. This model has then beenapplied to a number of test systems, which although fictitious, have the samebasic characteristics as the conditions found in the Nordic electricity market.The following factors of the design of the electricity market have beenstudied:• Planning horizon. The planning horizon refers to the delay time fromwhen the players have to submit bids to the spot market until the actualdelivery hour. The consequence of shortening the planning horizon is that theforecast errors will be smaller, especially for wind power forecasts. The resultsfrom the case study show that a shorter planning horizon is beneficial toalmost all players in the electricity market. If such a change of the electricitymarket is profitable does however depend on whether the value of theimproved forecasts is larger than the administrative costs.• Pricing of wind power imbalances. In the present Nordic electricitymarket, a two-price system is used for generation and a one-price system isused for consumption. An alternative would be to consider wind power asnegative load and include wind power imbalances in the consumptionimbalance of the balance responsible players. This would result in decreasedimbalance costs for wind power producers, but the results from the case studyshow that the differences are small compared to treating wind power as othergeneration. The explanation to this is that the imbalance costs in spite of allare only a few per cent of the wind power producer’ income of sellingelectricity.• Increased consumption flexibility. This reports considers theconsequences of introducing a new form contracts, which allows the retailersto initiate load reductions for certain consumers during a limited number ofhours per year. In the case study, this kind of contracts turned out to bebeneficial to all players (including those who were not themselves balanceresponsible for any consumption). The increased consumption flexibility alsoresulted in improved reliability of supply. These advantages must of course becompared to the costs of introducing such contracts and the necessaryinfrastructure

  • 5.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Electrical Systems.
    On Monte Carlo simulation and analysis of electricity markets2004Doctoral thesis, monograph (Other scientific)
    Abstract [en]

    This dissertation is about how Monte Carlo simulation can be used to analyse electricity markets. There are a wide range of applications for simulation; for example, players in the electricity market can use simulation to decide whether or not an investment can be expected to be profitable, and authorities can by means of simulation find out which consequences a certain market design can be expected to have on electricity prices, environmental impact, etc.

    In the first part of the dissertation, the focus is which electricity market models are suitable for Monte Carlo simulation. The starting point is a definition of an ideal electricity market. Such an electricity market is partly practical from a mathematical point of view (it is simple to formulate and does not require too complex calculations) and partly it is a representation of the best possible resource utilisation. The definition of the ideal electricity market is followed by analysis how the reality differs from the ideal model, what consequences the differences have on the rules of the electricity market and the strategies of the players, as well as how non-ideal properties can be included in a mathematical model. Particularly, questions about environmental impact, forecast uncertainty and grid costs are studied.

    The second part of the dissertation treats the Monte Carlo technique itself. To reduce the number of samples necessary to obtain accurate results, variance reduction techniques can be used. Here, six different variance reduction techniques are studied and possible applications are pointed out. The conclusions of these studies are turned into a method for efficient simulation of basic electricity markets. The method is applied to some test systems and the results show that the chosen variance reduction techniques can produce equal or better results using 99% fewer samples compared to when the same system is simulated without any variance reduction technique. More complex electricity market models cannot directly be simulated using the same method. However, in the dissertation it is shown that there are parallels and that the results from simulation of basic electricity markets can form a foundation for future simulation methods.

    Keywords: Electricity market, Monte Carlo simulation, variance reduction techniques, operation cost, reliability.

  • 6.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Simulation of Trading Arrangements Impact on Wind Power Imbalance Costs2008In: 2008 10TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON PROBABILISTIC METHODS APPLIED TO POWER SYSTEMS, NEW YORK: IEEE , 2008, p. 25-31Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Uncertain wind power forecasts is a disadvantage in an electricity market where the majority of the trading is performed several hours before the actual delivery. This paper presents a model which can be used to study how changes in the trading arrangement-in particular changing the delay time between closure of the spot market and the delivery period or changing the imbalance pricing system-would affect different players in the electricity market. The model can be used in Monte Carlo simulation, which is demonstrated for an example system.

  • 7.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Electric Power Systems.
    Small-scale Renewable Energy Sources for Rural Electrification. Possibilities and Limitations1998Report (Other academic)
  • 8.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Signals, Sensors and Systems.
    The value of transmission capability between countries and regions2000Licentiate thesis, monograph (Other scientific)
  • 9.
    Amelin, Mikael
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Englund, Calle
    Fagerberg, Andreas
    Balansering av vindkraft och vattenkraft i norra Sverige2009Report (Other academic)
  • 10.
    Amelin, Mikael
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric power and energy systems.
    Hersoug, Ellef
    Options for Rural Electrification in Developing Countries. A Case Study in Kasulu, Tanzania.1997Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
  • 11.
    Amelin, Mikael
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Knazkins, Valerijs
    Söder, Lennart
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Estimation of maximum power consumption in the grid area of Fortum, Stockholm2005Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 12.
    Amelin, Mikael
    et al.
    KTH, Superseded Departments.
    Söder, Lennart
    KTH, Superseded Departments.
    A fast multi-area economic hydro-thermal power system model1999In: NAPS, 1999Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 13.
    Amelin, Mikael
    et al.
    KTH, Superseded Departments.
    Söder, Lennart
    KTH, Superseded Departments.
    Cost estimations for power sources in rural electrification schemes1999In: ICEET, 1999, p. 98-105Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 14.
    Amelin, Mikael
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Söder, Lennart
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Taking Credit: The Impact of Wind Power on Supply Adequacy-Experience from the Swedish Market2010In: IEEE POWER ENERGY MAG, ISSN 1540-7977, Vol. 8, no 5, p. 47-52Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article presents some general concepts about capacity credit values, which are illustrated by theoretical examples as well as practical experience from the Swedish electricity market. The capacity credit of a wind generating unit (or a block of generating units) represents the contribution of the unit to the supply adequacy of the system. The capacity credit of a power plant is an abstract quantity based on probability calculations and requires knowledge of the probability distributions for available generation capacity and load. To secure the reliability of supply, the Swedish system operator was given the responsibility to purchase annual contracts for a "power reserve".

  • 15.
    Amelin, Mikael
    et al.
    KTH, Superseded Departments.
    Söder, Lennart
    KTH, Superseded Departments.
    The Strata Tree: A Useful Tool for Simulation of Electricity Markets2002In: PMAPS 2002, Naples, Italy, 2002Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 16. Bakkabulindi, G.
    et al.
    Hesamzadeh, Mohammad Reza
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Da Silva, I. P.
    Models for conductor size selection in Single Wire Earth Return distribution networks2013In: IEEE AFRICON 2013, IEEE conference proceedings, 2013, p. 6757773-Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The use of the ground as the current return path often presents planning and operational challenges in power distribution networks. This study presents optimization-based models for the optimal selection of conductor sizes in Single Wire Earth Return (SWER) power distribution networks. By using mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP), models are developed for both branch-wise and primary-lateral feeder selections from a discrete set of overhead conductor sizes. The models are based on a mathematical formulation of the SWER line, where the objective function is to minimize fixed and variable costs subject to constraints specific to SWER power flow. Load growth over different time periods is considered. The practical application is tested using a case study extracted from an existing SWER distribution line in Namibia. The results were consistent for different network operating scenarios.

  • 17.
    Bakkabulindi, Geofrey
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Hesamzadeh, Mohammad R.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Da Silva, I.P.
    Makerere University, Faculty of Technology.
    Planning Algorithm for Single Wire Earth Return Distribution Networks2012In: Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 2012 IEEE, 2012, p. 1-7Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Power flow in earth return distribution systems typically depends on geographical location and specific earth properties. The planning of such systems has to take into account different operational and safety constraints from conventional distribution systems. This work presents the mathematical modeling and planning of Single Wire Earth Return (SWER) power distribution networks. The SWER load flow is modeled and formulated as an optimization problem. Then by using a heuristic iterative procedure, a planning algorithm is developed for the SWER system. The developed procedure includes optimal feeder routing and overhead conductor selection for both primary and lateral feeders with load growth over several time periods. A 30 node test network extracted from a rural area in Uganda is used to test the algorithm's practical application to give reasonable and consistent results. The model presented can be used in planning SWER networks for areas which have previously not been electrified as well as determining suitable upgrades for existing SWER distribution feeders. The algorithm's mathematical modeling and simulations were done using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS).

  • 18.
    Bakkabulindi, Geofrey
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Hesamzadeh, Mohammad R.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Da Silva, I.P.
    Lugujjo, E.
    A Heuristic Model for Planning of Single Wire Earth Return Power Distribution Networks2011In: Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Power and Energy Systems and Applications, PESA 2011, 2011, p. 215-222Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The planning of distribution networks with earth return is highly dependent on the ground's electrical properties. This study incorporates a load flow algorithm for Single Wire Earth Return (SWER) networks into the planning of such systems. The earth's variable conductive properties are modelled into the load flow algorithm and the model considers load growth over different time periods. It includes optimal conductor selection for the SWER system and can also be used to forecast when an initially selected conductor will need to be upgraded. The planning procedure is based on indices derived through an iterative heuristic process that aims to minimise losses and investment costs subject to load flow constraints. A case study in Uganda is used to test the model's practical application.

  • 19. Bompard, E.
    et al.
    Correia, P.
    Gross, G.
    Amelin, M.
    KTH, Superseded Departments.
    A Comparative Analysis of Congestion Management Schemes under a Unified Framework2002In: IEEE Power Engineering Review, ISSN 0272-1724, E-ISSN 1558-1705, Vol. 22, p. 59-60Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The restructuring of the electricity industry has spawned the introduction of new independent grid operators or IGOs, typically called transmission system operators (TSO), independent system operator (ISO) or regional transmission organizations (RTO), in various parts of the world. An important task of an IGO is congestion management (CM) and pricing. This activity has significant economic implications on every market participant in the IGO’s region. The paper briefly reviews the congestion management schemes and the associated pricing mechanism used by the IGO’s in five representative schemes. These were selected to Illustrate the various CM approaches in use: England and Wales, Norway, Sweden, PJM and Califomia. We develop a unified framework for the mathematical representation of the market dispatch and redispatch problems that the IGO must solve in CM in these various jurisdictions. We use this unified framework to develop meaningful metrics to compare the various CM approaches so as to assess their efficiency and the effectiveness of the market signals provided to the market participants. We compare, using a small test system, side by side, the performance of these schemes.

  • 20. Bompard, E.
    et al.
    Correia, P.
    Gross, G.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, Superseded Departments.
    Congestion-management schemes: A comparative analysis under a unified framework2003In: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, ISSN 0885-8950, E-ISSN 1558-0679, Vol. 18, no 1, p. 346-352Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The restructuring of the electricity industry has spawned the introduction of new independent grid operators (IGOs), typically called transmission system operators (TSOs); independent system operator (ISOs); or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), in various parts of the world. An important task of an IGO is congestion management (CM) and pricing. This activity has significant economic implications on every. market participant in the IGO's region. The paper briefly reviews the CM schemes and the associated pricing mechanism used by the IGOs in five representative schemes. These were selected to illustrate the various CM approaches in use: England and Wales, Norway, Sweden, PJM, and California. We develop a unified framework for the mathematical representation of the market dispatch and redispatch problems that the IGO must solve in CM in these various jurisdictions. We use this unified framework to develop meaningful metrics to compare the various CM approaches so as to assess their efficiency and the effectiveness of the market signals provided to the market participants. We compare, using a small test system, side by side, the performance of these schemes.

  • 21.
    Dimoulkas, Ilias
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    CHP operation scheduling under uncertainty: Estimating the value of thermal energy storage2014In: Proceedings from the 14th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling / [ed] Anna Land, 2014Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 22.
    Dimoulkas, Ilias
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Constructing Bidding Curves for a CHP Producer in Day-ahead Electricity Markets2014In: ENERGYCON 2014 - IEEE International Energy Conference, IEEE Computer Society, 2014, p. 487-494Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The operation of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems in liberalized electricity markets depends both on uncertain electricity prices and uncertain heat demand. In the future, uncertainty is going to increase due to the increased intermittent power induced by renewable energy sources. Therefore, the need for improved planning and bidding tools is highly important for CHP producers. This paper applies an optimal bidding model under the uncertainties of day-ahead market prices and the heat demand. The problem is formulated in a stochastic programming framework where future scenarios of the random variables are considered in order to handle the uncertainties. A case study is performed and conclusions are derived about the CHP operation and the need for heat storage.

  • 23.
    Dimoulkas, Ilias
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Probabilistic day-ahead CHP operation scheduling2015In: 2015 IEEE POWER & ENERGY SOCIETY GENERAL MEETING, IEEE conference proceedings, 2015Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The production scheduling of combined heat and power plants is a challenging task. The need for simultaneous production of heat and power in combination with the technical constraints results in a problem with high complexity. Furthermore, the operation in the electricity markets environment means that every decision is made with unknown electricity prices for the produced electric energy. In order to compensate the increased risk of operating under such uncertain conditions, tools like stochastic programming have been developed. In this paper, the short-term operation scheduling model of a CHP system in the day-ahead electricity market is mathematically described and solved. The problem is formulated in a stochastic programming framework where the uncertain parameters of day-ahead electricity prices and the heat demand are incorporated into the problem in the form of scenarios. A case study is also performed with a CHP system operating in a district heating network and the value of heat storage capacity is estimated.

  • 24.
    Dimoulkas, Ilias
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems.
    Hesamzadeh, Mohammad Reza
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems.
    Forecasting Balancing Market Prices Using Hidden Markov Models2016In: 2016 13TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET (EEM), IEEE conference proceedings, 2016Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based method to predict the prices and trading volumes in the electricity balancing markets. The HMM are quite powerful in modelling stochastic processes where the underlying dynamics are not apparent. The proposed method provides both one hour and 12-36 hour ahead forecasts. The first is mostly useful to wind/solar producers in order to compensate their production imbalances while the second is important when submitting the offers to the day ahead markets. The results are compared to the ones from Markov-autoregressive model.

  • 25.
    Dimoulkas, Ilias
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems.
    Levihn, Fabian
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Industrial Economics and Management (Dept.).
    District heating system operation in power systems with high share of wind power2017In: Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy, ISSN 2196-5625, E-ISSN 2196-5420, Vol. 5, no 6, p. 850-862Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The integration of continuously varying and not easily predictable wind power generation is affecting the stability of the power system and leads to increasing demand for balancing services. In this study, a short-term operation model of a district heating system is proposed to optimally schedule the production of both heat and power in a system with high wind power penetration. The application of the model in a case study system shows the increased flexibility offered by the coordination of power generation, consumption and heat storage units which are available in district heating systems.

  • 26.
    Dimoulkas, Ilias
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric power and energy systems.
    Khastieva, Dina
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric power and energy systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric power and energy systems.
    Constructing Offering Curves for a CSP Producer in Day-ahead Electricity Markets2016In: 6th Solar Integration Workshop: International workshop on integration of solar power into power systems / [ed] Uta Betancourt / Thomas Ackermann, 2016, p. 424-431Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In many countries, the installation and operation of concentrated solar power plants has been promoted with high feed-in tariffs and other incentives. However, as this technology is becoming more mature and the installation costs are being reduced, the incentives are minimized or totally abolished. Under these new economic conditions, there is an increased need for operation planning and power trading tools that will help the operators of such systems to make optimal decisions under the various uncertainties they face. This paper provides a model that can be used to derive the offering curves of a CSP producer in the day-ahead (spot) market. The model can also be used for the hourly short-term operation planning of the system. In order to tackle with the uncertainties of electricity prices and solar irradiance, the stochastic programming framework is used and a risk measure is incorporated into the model. A case study is conducted to show the applicability of the model.

  • 27. Estanqueiro, A.
    et al.
    Ardal, A. R.
    O'Dwyer, C.
    Flynn, D.
    Huertas-Hernando, D.
    Lew, D.
    Gomez-Lazaro, E.
    Ela, E.
    Revuelta, J.
    Kiviluoma, J.
    Rodrigues, L.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Holtinen, H.
    Energy storage for wind integration: Hydropower and other contributions2012In: Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 2012 IEEE, IEEE , 2012, p. 6344652-Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The amount of wind power and other timevariable non-dispatchable renewable energy sources (RES) is rapidly increasing in the world. A few power systems are already facing very high penetrations from variable renewables which can surpass the systems' consumption during no-load periods, requiring the energy excess to be curtailed, exported or stored. The limitations of electric energy storage naturally lead to the selection of the well-known form of storing potential energy in reservoirs of reversible hydropower stations, although other technologies such as heat storage are also being used successfully. This paper reviews the storage technologies that are available and may be used on a power system scale and compares their advantages and disadvantages for the integration of fast-growing renewables, such as wind power, with a special focus on the role of pumped hydro storage.

  • 28.
    Gonzalez, Jose Luis
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Dimoulkas, Ilias
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Operation Planning of a CSP Plant in the Spanish Day-ahead Electricity Market2014Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper addresses the short-term operation planning of a concentrated solar power (CSP) plant equipped with a backup fuel boiler and operating in the Spanish day-ahead electricity market. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model. Forecasted values of electricity prices and direct sun irradiation are considered. The main concern in the problem is to set an optimal use of the backup system in order to increase power generation and maximize the profits. Interaction between the solar and fuel heated systems is considered through heat balance constraints while parameters referring to the boiler are independent from the rest of the system allowing various types of boilers to be tested. A realistic case study provides results of a CSP plant operating a) without boiler, b) with a natural gas boiler and c) with a biomass boiler. Results demonstrate the advantages of the proposed model.

  • 29.
    Hamon, Camille
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Shayesteh, Ebrahim
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Söder, Lennart
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Two partitioning methods for multi-area studies in large power systems2015In: International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems, E-ISSN 2050-7038, Vol. 25, no 4, p. 648-660Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-area studies are an important tool for today's and future power systems. In this paper, a two-step algorithm for creating multi-area models is presented that, first, identifies areas, and, second, computes reduced models of these areas. For the first step, two new methods to identify areas in power systems have been developed. The first method is based upon spectral partitioning, whereas the second one is formulated as a linear optimization problem. The methods are compared in terms of computation time on the IEEE 118 bus system, and the first method clearly stands out in this comparison. The first method is then applied to the IEEE 300 bus system and to a model of the Polish power system with 2746 buses to study how it scales in large power systems. Even in the latter case, it runs in less than 30s. For the second step, existing equivalencing methods can be used. As an example, radial, equivalent, and independent equivalents are used to model the areas identified by the partitioning methods. The partitioning and equivalencing methods have been tested on the IEEE 118 bus system by running 1000 regular and optimal power flows. Comparisons with the original IEEE 118 bus system in terms of flows, costs and losses are carried out.

  • 30.
    Hesamzadeh, Mohammad
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    A generation expansion planning model of a strategic electricity generating firm2011In: Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 2011 IEEE, IEEE , 2011, p. 1-7Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper derives a mathematical structure for investment decisions of a profit-maximising and strategic producer in liberalised electricity markets. The paper assumes a Cournot producer in an energy market with nodal pricing regime. The Cournot producer is assumed to have revenue from selling energy to the pool. The investment problem of the strategic producer is modelled through a leader-follower game in applied mathematics. The leader is the strategic producer seeking the optimal mix of its investment technologies and the follower is a stochastic estimator. The stochastic estimator forecasts the reactions of other producers in the market in response to the investment decisions of the producer in question. The stochastic estimator takes the investment decisions of the producer and it calculates the stochastic prices. The mathematical structure is a stochastic linear bilevel programming problem. This problem is reformulated as a stochastic MILP problem which can be solved using the commercially available software packages. Finally, the developed mathematical structure is applied to a six-node example system to highlight the strengths of the whole approach.

  • 31.
    Hesamzadeh, Mohammad
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Assessment of the market power cost in liberalised electricity markets using SMPI, PMPI, and NMPI indicators2011In: Energy Market (EEM), 2011 8th International Conference on the European, 2011, p. 844-848Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Market power analysis is one of the major issues facing regulators of wholesale electricity markets. The exercise of market power both distorts wholesale price signals and reduces the efficiency of the operation of and investment in the wholesale electricity market. This paper deals with a systematic way for quantifying and visualising market power. The paper first proposes three indicators termed the System Market Power Indicator, SMPI, the Producer Market Power Indicator, PMPI, and the Nodal Market Power Indicator, NMPI. The game theory in applied mathematics and the concept of social welfare in microeconomics are used in formulating of these indicators. The SMPI finds the total cost of exercising market power by generating companies. The contribution of a specific generating company in system market power is calculated using the PMPI. The NMPI finds the contribution of each power system node in the total market power cost. Then after, a colour contour map is used to visualise the exercise of market power and its associated cost. The proposed market power indicators are applied to the modified Garver’s example system to show the promising performance of these indicators.

  • 32.
    Hesamzadeh, Mohammad
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Modelling market power cost in the assessment of transmission investment policies2011In: PowerTech, 2011 IEEE Trondheim, 2011, p. 1-6Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper develops a mathematical tool for modelling market power cost in transmission expansion planning decisions. The mathematical modelling is based on the game theory in applied mathematics and the concept of social welfare in microeconomics. We assume the generating companies as Cournot players and the Transmission System Operators as a regulated social transmission planner. To tackle the multiple Nash equilibria problem, the concept of worst-Nash equilibrium is defined and mathematically formulated. The developed mathematical structure is a mixed-integer linear programming problem. This closed form mathematical structure can be solved efficiently using the available computational packages.

  • 33.
    Hesamzadeh, Mohammad R.
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Rahman, A K M Zami-Ur
    KTH, School of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Electronic Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    The Probabilistic TC-PSI for Studying Market Power2011Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    It is widely recognized that wholesale electricity markets tend to be prone to the exercise of market power. The exercise of market power has antisocial impacts in the liberalised electricity markets. It results in inefficient short-term dispatch outcomes, and affects the efficiency of longer-term generation investment decisions. And thus, it results in power price rises and substantial wealth transfers between electricity customers and generators. Electricity market regulators around the world tend to be interested in mechanisms for predicting marker power ex ante and detecting and controlling the exercise of market power ex post. The common indices of ex ante market power indicators however, mostly disregard transmission constraints, variation of wind farms' capacities, and dynamics of electric power systems. This paper carries out a probabilistic study of market power using an index termed Probabilistic Transmission-Constrained Pivotal Supplier Indicator (Probabilistic TC-PSI). Two probabilistic approaches (a) Monte Carlo Method (MCM), and (b) Two-Point Estimation Method (T-PEM) are employed in the probabilistic study and then compared.

  • 34.
    Khastieva, Dina
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems.
    Short-term planning of hydro-thermal system with high wind energy penetration and energy storage2016In: IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, IEEE, 2016Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Wind based electricity generation is considered as one of the solutions for emission reduction. However, variability and uncertainty of wind speeds create challenges for balancing in the power systems and in many cases require improvements in ramping capabilities of the system along with additional reserved generation capacity. Ramping capability as well as generation reserves could be provided by different technologies such as thermal and hydro generation and different types of energy storage. The last option is considered to be a possible solution for power systems with large wind generation. This paper provides a model for short-term planning of the hydro-thermal power system with high wind energy penetration and presence of a large scale energy storage unit. The model is used to compare the effect of different generation mix and energy storage presence on the operation of the power system and balancing cost in particular.

  • 35.
    Perninge, Magnus
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Knazkins, Valerijs
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Comparing Variance Reduction Techniques for Monte Carlo Simulation of Trading and Security in a Three-Area Power System2008In: 2008 IEEE/PES TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION CONFERENCE AND EXPOSITION: LATIN AMERICA, VOLS 1 AND 2, IEEE , 2008, p. 461-465Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A variance reduction technique is a method used to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo Simulation. In this paper four of the most commonly used variance reduction techniques are tested to estimate the trade of between trading and security in a three-area electric power system. The comparison is made by regarding both the variance reduction and the bias induced by the method.

  • 36.
    Perninge, Magnus
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Knazkins, Valerijs
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Load Modeling Using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process2008In: 2008 IEEE 2ND INTERNATIONAL POWER AND ENERGY CONFERENCE: PECON, VOLS 1-3, NEW YORK: IEEE , 2008, p. 819-821Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we show how to model the load in an electric power system using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeek process and use the method developed by Lehmann to find the distribution of the maximum of the load process in a bounded time interval. A numerical example showing how to find a upper confidence bound for the maximum of the load process in a bounded time interval using the proposed method will also be given.

  • 37.
    Perninge, Magnus
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Knazkins, Valerijs
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Monte Carlo Analysis of the Trade-Off between Trading and Security in a Two-Area System2007In: GMSARN (The Greater Mekong Subregion Academic and Research Network) International Conference 2007: Sustainable Development: Challenges and Opportunities for the Greater Mekong Subregion, 2007Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 38.
    Perninge, Magnus
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Knazkins, Valerijs
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Söder, Lennart
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Estimating Upper Confidence Bounds of Electric Power Consumption2009In: THIRTEEN INTERNATIONAL MIDDLE- EAST POWER SYSTEMS CONFERENCE, MEPCON'2009, 2009Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 39.
    Perninge, Magnus
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Knazkins, Valerijs
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Söder, Lennart
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Modeling the electric power consumption in a multi-area system2011In: European transactions on electrical power, ISSN 1430-144X, E-ISSN 1546-3109, Vol. 21, no 1, p. 413-423Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this article a model of the electric power consumption in a multi-area power system is derived. The model is based on stochastic differential equations to mimic the stochastic behavior of electric power consumption in large systems. The developed model considers correlations between the consumptions in the different areas. A numerical example showing how to find the parameters of the process will be given. The load data used in the numerical example is hourly energy consumption data for the Nordic countries: Sweden, Norway, and Finland.

  • 40.
    Perninge, Magnus
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Knazkins, Valerijs
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Söder, Lennart
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Risk Estimation of Critical Time to Voltage Instability Induced by Saddle-Node Bifurcation2010In: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, ISSN 0885-8950, E-ISSN 1558-0679, Vol. 25, no 3, p. 1600-1610Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Prevention of voltage instability in electric power systems is an important objective that the system operators have to meet. Under certain circumstances the operating point of the power system may start drifting towards the set of voltage unstable operating points. If no preventive measures are taken, after some time the operating point may eventually become voltage unstable. It will thus be preferable to have a measure of the risk of voltage collapse in future loading states. This paper presents a novel method for estimation of the probability distribution of the time to voltage instability for a power system with uncertain future loading scenarios. The method uses a distance from the predicted load-path to the set of voltage unstable operating points when finding an estimate of the time to voltage instability. This will reduce the problem to a one-dimensional problem which for large systems decreases the computation time significantly.

  • 41.
    Perninge, Magnus
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Knazkins, Valerijs
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Söder, Lennart
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    The Impact of a Given Trading Limit on a Two-Area Test System2009In: 2009 IEEE BUCHAREST POWERTECH / [ed] Toma L; Otomega B, NEW YORK: IEEE , 2009, p. 2122-2127Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper uses methods from stochastic analysis and stochastic modeling to determine the impact of a certain trading limit on the transfer between the two areas of a benchmark two-area power system. We also try to state which uncertainties are important to consider when calculating this power transfer.

  • 42.
    Scharff, Richard
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    A Study of Electricity Market Design for Systems with High Wind Power Penetration2011In: Energy Market (EEM), 2011 8th International Conference on the European, IEEE , 2011, p. 614-621Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This literature review investigates the influence of intermittent wind power on the electricity market pointing out the importance of the market design along with presenting the Nordic, the German and the Spanish electricity wholesale market. Adaptations in the market design could improve the performance of systems with high wind power penetration levels. As a conclusion promising key-issues are listed.

  • 43.
    Scharff, Richard
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Analysis of Market Participants' Trading Behaviour on the Nordic Intraday Market: Work-in-progress2014Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Trading possibilities after closure of the day-ahead electricity market are expected to be of vital importance for an efficient integration of variable renewable energy sources. Today, there is a variety of different designs for intraday markets. In Europe, two basic layouts can be distinguished: double-sided intraday auctions like in Spain and Portugal and platforms for continuous trading as, for example, in Germany, France or the Nordic countries. Understanding trading behaviour on intraday markets can reveal shortcomings not only in their design, but also in the market rules of the whole electricity market. Both can hamper a more efficient integration of wind power.

    In this work-in-progress, trading activities on Elbas, the Nordic intraday market, are analysed. The analysis includes all trades that have been successfully settled between 2 March, 2012 and 28 February, 2013. In order to explain the observed trading behaviour, data is collected that is supposed to be relevant to market participants when taking their intraday trading decisions.

    The goal of this research project is to investigated to which extent intuitive bidding strategies can be observed in practice using descriptive statistical methods as well as explaining important examples in detail.

  • 44.
    Scharff, Richard
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Distributed Balancing of Wind Power Forecast Deviations by Intraday Trading and Internal Ex-Ante Self-Balancing - A Modelling Approach2013In: 2013 24th International Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applications (DEXA), New York: IEEE , 2013, p. 176-183Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Wind power generation does on the one hand contribute to a less polluting and more sustainable electric power generation mix. On the other hand, its power output is variable and subject to forecast errors. In real-time, deviations from wind power forecast are handled by the system operator. But expected deviations can already me minimised by power generating companies before real-time. Ways to decrease their expected deviations are intraday trading and/or re-scheduling of own power plants. Both can be regarded as forms of self-balancing before the period of delivery (ex-ante), intraday trading as a form of external ex-ante self-balancing and re-scheduling as internal ex-ante self-balancing. Both can decrease the need for real-time balancing by the system operator. As existing intraday markets are often plagued by low liquidity, it is important to model such not-perfectly liquid intraday markets and simulate different trading and scheduling strategies. This paper presents an approach to model the choice between purely internal self-balancing and internal self-balancing combined with intraday trading on a not fully liquid intraday market. Results from the model runs indicate that intraday trading on a not-perfectly liquid market can be beneficial from the producers as well as from the system's perspective. However, it can result in increased costs if the possibilities to trade on the intraday market are very limited. This is important to consider when investigating the question whether it would be beneficial to distribute a larger share of the balancing responsibility among the power generating companies in order to relieve some pressure from the system operator.

  • 45.
    Scharff, Richard
    et al.
    KTH, School of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Electronics.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Electronics.
    Trading behavior on the continuous intraday market ELBAS2016In: ENERDAY 11th Conference on Energy Economics and Technology: Energy Efficiency and Demand Response, 2016Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Intraday markets for electricity allow for trading of energy until shortly before the period of delivery. This offers market participants a possibility to reduce their expected imbalances and to offer own unused flexibility. Because this form of distributed balancing before the period of delivery can be profitable for market participants and beneficial for system operations, intraday trading is expected to gain more importance in future, especially with increasing shares of variable renewable energy sources in the generation mix.

    So far, intraday markets are still a research field with many open questions. In this conference, we want to present our work that was recently published in Energy Policy (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.045). It contributes by a first analysis of intraday trades on ELBAS, one of the European intraday markets. The analysis gives a detailed picture on trading activity and price development and is intended to improve understanding of continuous intraday trading.

    Findings include that trading activity differs significantly between price zones, that most trades occur in the last hours before gate closure and that market participants have to handle substantial price variations during the trading period. We also investigate imbalance settlement rules in the Nordic countries and studies which effects one- and two-price imbalance settlement systems have on the market participants' profitability of intraday trading.

  • 46.
    Scharff, Richard
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Trading Behaviour on the Continuous Intraday Market Elbas2016In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 88, p. 544-557Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Intraday markets for electricity allow for trading of energy until shortly before the period of delivery. This offers market participants a possibility to reduce their expected imbalances and to offer own unused flexibility. Because this form of distributed balancing before the period of delivery can be profitable for market participants and beneficial for system operations, intraday trading is expected to gain more importance in future, especially with increasing shares of variable renewable energy sources in the generation mix.

    So far, intraday markets are still a research field with many open questions. This paper contributes by a first analysis of intraday trades on Elbas, one of the European intraday markets. The analysis gives a detailed picture on trading activity and price development and is intended to improve understanding of continuous intraday trading.

    Findings include that trading activity differs significantly between price zones, that most trades occur in the last hours before gate closure and that market participants have to handle substantial price variations during the trading period. The paper also investigates the imbalance settlement rules in the Nordic countries and studies which effects one- and two-price imbalance settlement systems have on the market participants' profitability of intraday trading.

  • 47.
    Scharff, Richard
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Söder, Lennart
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Approaching wind power forecast deviations with internal ex-ante self-balancing2013In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 57, p. 106-115Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Short-term variations in wind power generation make real-time balancing of load and generation a more challenging task for the Transmission System Operator (TSO). One issue of interest that could facilitate the efficient integration of wind power is to shift larger parts of the balancing responsibility from the TSO to the power generating companies. The idea is to reduce the real-time balancing need for the TSO by demanding power generating companies to minimise their expected imbalances. To comply with this, power generating companies can re-schedule their production based on updated production forecasts. As a key of the contribution, this paper analyses internal ex-ante self-balancing, where this re-scheduling is done shortly before the period of delivery and internally within each power generating company. To quantify the value of such a more distributed balancing responsibility, a model has been developed which consists of a sequence of optimisation models. Then, possible trading decisions of power generating companies are evaluated in different situations. This is based on a hydro-thermal generation portfolio within the framework of the Nordic electricity market.

  • 48.
    Scharff, Richard
    et al.
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Söder, Lennart
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    The Influence of Internal "Ex-ante Self-balancing" on the Operation of a Power System2012Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Short-term variations in wind power generation make the real-time balancing of load and generation a more challenging task for the transmission system operator. Due to this, we explore the question whether ex-ante self-balancing can efficiently reduce the real-time balancing demand. Internal ex-ante self-balancing means that each power generating company tries to re-schedule its operation plan which it has committed itself to in order to balance it with the newest production forecast. This re-scheduling is done shortly before the period of delivery.

    To assess its value, we evaluate possible trading decisions for power generating companies in different situations based on a hydro-thermal generation portfolio within the framework of the Nordic electricity market design.

  • 49. Sendegeya, A.
    et al.
    Lugujjo, E.
    Da Silva, I. P.
    Söder, Lennart
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Application of Price Sensitivity Measurement Method to Assess the Acceptance of Electricity Tariffs2009In: 2009 AFRICON, VOLS 1 AND 2, NEW YORK: IEEE , 2009, p. 158-162Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Understanding the way customers respond to price changes is vital for any business. The price sensitivity measurement (PSM) analysis is widely used by marketers and researchers to assess customers' price sensitivity. This paper applies the concept of PSM analysis to assess electricity consumers' tariff perceptions, attitude to tariff changes and generally acceptance of tariffs. The method is tested using field survey data obtained from low demand consumers (households and small businesses) in urban and rural areas of Uganda after tariff increase. The results indicate that the new tariff approved by the regulator is within the range of tariffs possibly expected and likely to be accepted by consumers, but higher than the tariffs which consumers consider to be worthy. Also it is realized from the results that in Uganda, tariff expectations of rural consumers are different from the urban counterparts, the former expect lower tariffs with high degree of price sensitivity. Households show a higher degree of price sensitivity than commercial consumers. Conclusively, the information obtained from PSM can be used by utilities to make a preliminary assessment of consumers' expectations and/or acceptance levels of a certain range of tariffs during tariff review.

  • 50. Sendegeya, Al-Mas
    et al.
    Amelin, Mikael
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Söder, Lennart
    KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power Systems.
    Lugujjo, E.
    Da Silva, I. P.
    Altruistic versus profit maximising system operators of rural power systems2007In: 2007 IEEE POWER ENGINEERING SOCIETY CONFERENCE AND EXPOSITION IN AFRICA, VOLS 1 AND 2, NEW YORK: IEEE , 2007, p. 157-163Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a methodology using Monte Carlo Simulation for analysing and compare the impact of two types of monopolistic rural power system operators (altruistic and profit maximising operators) on the probability distribution of tariff levels and reliability of the system. The market has price sensitive consumers. The developed model has been demonstrated on two power systems: only diesel genset and a wind-diesel hybrid system showing the impact of the generation costs and capacity of generation from wind on the tariff levels, expected profit and reliability.

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