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  • 1. Almroth, Andreas
    et al.
    Berglund, Svante
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport planning, economics and engineering.
    Engelsson, Leonid
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport planning, economics and engineering.
    Canella, Olivier
    Flötteröd, Gunnar
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport planning, economics and engineering.
    Jonsson, Daniel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport planning, economics and engineering.
    Kristoffersson, Ida
    West, Jens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport planning, economics and engineering. SWECO, Sweden.
    Further development of SAMPERS and modeling of urban congestion2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The need to more precisely represent the consequences of congestion mitigation policies in urban transport systems calls for replacement of the static equilibrium assignment by DTA in the integrated travel demand and traffic assignment models. Despite of the availability of DTA models and despite of the conceptual clarity of how such integration should take place, only few operational model systems have been developed for large-scale applications. We report on replacement of the static traffic assignment by two different DTAs in the four stage demand model for the Greater Stockholm region: the macroscopic analytic Visum DUE and microscopic simulation Transmodeler. First results show that even without systematic calibration the DTA is in reasonable agreement with observed traffic counts and travel times. The presented experiments did not reveal striking difference between using macroscopic and microscopic assignment package. However, given the clear trend to microscopic modeling and simulation on the travel demand side, the use of micro-simulation-based DTA package appears more natural from system integration perspective.

  • 2.
    Berglund, Svante
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport planning, economics and engineering.
    Canella, Olivier
    Engelsson, Leonid
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport planning, economics and engineering.
    Flötteröd, Gunnar
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport planning, economics and engineering.
    Jonsson, Daniel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport planning, economics and engineering.
    Kristoffersson, Ida
    West, Jens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport planning, economics and engineering. SWECO, Sweden.
    Integration of dynamic traffic assignment with a travel demand model for the Stockholm region2014Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 3.
    Cats, Oded
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. Delft University of Technology, Netherlands.
    West, Jens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    A dynamic stochastic model for evaluating congestion and crowding effects in transit systems2016In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 89, p. 43-57Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    One of the most common motivations for public transport investments is to reduce congestion and increase capacity. Public transport congestion leads to crowding discomfort, denied boardings and lower service reliability. However, transit assignment models and appraisal methodologies usually do not account for the dynamics of public transport congestion and crowding and thus potentially underestimate the related benefits. This study develops a method to capture the benefits of increased capacity by using a dynamic and stochastic transit assignment model. Using an agent-based public transport simulation model, we dynamically model the evolution of network reliability and on-board crowding. The model is embedded in a comprehensive framework for project appraisal.A case study of a metro extension that partially replaces an overloaded bus network in Stockholm demonstrates that congestion effects may account for a substantial share of the expected benefits. A cost-benefit analysis based on a conventional static model will miss more than a third of the benefits. This suggests that failure to represent dynamic congestion effects may substantially underestimate the benefits of projects, especially if they are primarily intended to increase capacity rather than to reduce travel times.

  • 4.
    Cats, Oded
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    West, Jens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. SWECO, Sweden.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Appraisal of increased public transport capacity: The case of a new metro line to Nacka, Sweden2014Report (Other academic)
  • 5.
    West, Jens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. Sweco.
    Congestion Effects in Transport Modelling and Forecasting2015Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Transport investments and policies are increasingly turned towards dealing with transport congestion rather than with shortening the potential free flow travel time. However, appraisal methodologies for projects meant to reduce congestion are relatively less well developed compared to methodologies for projects aiming to reduce travel times. Static assignment models are for instance incapable of predicting the build-up and dissipation of traffic queues and capturing the experienced crowding caused by uneven on-board passenger loads. Despite of the availability of dynamic traffic assignment and despite of fairly concrete ideas of how integration with demand models could take place, only few model systems have been developed for real applications.

    The predicted reduction of traffic volume across the Gothenburg congestion charge cordon in the peak, 11%, turned out to be an accurate estimate of the observed reduction, 12%. The reduction in the off-peak, however, was overpredicted, as it was also in the Stockholm case. To analyse congestion charges in Stockholm it is necessary and fully possible to integrate DTA with the demand model. In the performed tests it could be seen that both tested models had problems replicating the flow on the main bypass early in the morning but otherwise performed well. A case study of a metro extension in Stockholm demonstrated that congestion effects constitute more than half of the total benefits and that these effects are excessively underestimated by a conventional static model. Effects of various operational measures can be analysed with BusMezzo and the results have been validated against observed data. The findings indicate that all three tested measures in a case study (boarding through all doors, headway-based holding and bus lanes) had an overall positive impact on service performance and that there are synergetic effects.

    Using a continuous VTT distribution and hierarchical route choice was demonstrated as a successful method of modelling the multi-passage rule implemented in Gothenburg congestion charges and was shown to give realistic predictions of route choice effects. First results from integration of DTA with a travel demand model for the Stockholm region show that even without systematic calibration the DTA is in reasonable agreement with observed traffic counts and travel times. The presented experiments did not reveal a striking difference between using a macroscopic and a microscopic assignment package. While travel time savings are often the only benefit included in public transport project appraisals, the best practice assigns weighted value of time to average load/capacity measures. However, failure to represent dynamic congestion effects may lead to substantial underestimation of the benefits of projects primarily designed to increase capacity rather than reduce travel times. The impact of small operational measures should not be underestimated. These measures are relatively cheap compared to investments in new transit infrastructure and large societal gains can therefore be achieved by their implementation.

  • 6.
    West, Jens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. Sweco, Sweden.
    Modelling and Appraisal in Congested Transport Networks2016Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Appraisal methodologies for congestion mitigation projects are relatively less well developed compared to methodologies for projects reducing free flow travel times. For instance, static assignment models are incapable of representing the build-up and dissipation of traffic queues, or capturing the experienced crowding caused by uneven on-board passenger loads. Despite the availability of dynamic traffic assignment, only few model systems have been developed for cost-benefit analysis of real applications. The six included papers present approaches and tools for analysing traffic and transit projects where congestion relief is the main target.

    In the transit case studies, we use an agent-based simulation model to analyse congestion and crowding effects and to conduct cost-benefit analyses. In the case study of a metro extension in Stockholm, we demonstrate that congestion and crowding effects constitute more than a third of the total benefits and that a conventional static model underestimates these effects vastly. In another case study, we analyse various operational measures and find that the three main measures (boarding through all doors, headway-based holding and bus lanes) had an overall positive impact on service performance and that synergetic effects exist.

    For the congestion charging system in Gothenburg, we demonstrate that a hierarchal route choice model with a continuous value of time distribution gives realistic predictions of route choice effects although the assignment is static. We use the model to show that the net social benefit of the charging system in Gothenburg is positive, but that low income groups pay a larger share of their income than high income groups. To analyse congestion charges in Stockholm however, integration of dynamic traffic assignment with the demand model is necessary, and we demonstrate that this is fully possible.

    Models able to correctly predict these effects highlight the surprisingly large travel time savings of pricing policies and small operational measures. These measures are cheap compared to investments in new infrastructure and their implementation can therefore lead to large societal gains.

  • 7.
    West, Jens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. SWECO, Sweden.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    The Gothenburg congestion charges: CBA and equityManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 8.
    West, Jens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. SWECO, Sweden.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Engelson, Leonid
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges2016In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 94, p. 266-277Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper explores the accuracy of the transport model forecast of the Gothenburg congestion charges, implemented in 2013. The design of the charging system implies that the path disutility cannot be computed as a sum of link attributes. The route choice model is therefore implemented as a hierarchical algorithm, applying a continuous value of travel time (VTT) distribution. The VTT distribution was estimated from stated choice (SC) data. However, based on experience of impact forecasting with a similar model and of impact outcome of congestion charges in Stockholm, the estimated VTT distribution had to be stretched to the right. We find that the forecast traffic reductions across the cordon and travel time gains were close to those observed in the peak. However, the reduction in traffic across the cordon was underpredicted off-peak. The necessity to make the adjustment indicates that the VTT inferred from SC data does not reveal the travellers’ preferences, or that there are factors determining route choice other than those included in the model: travel distance, travel time and congestion charge.

  • 9.
    West, Jens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. SWECO, Sweden.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Engelsson, Leonid
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Ex-post evaluation of national transport model: Gothenburg congestion charges application2014Report (Other academic)
  • 10.
    West, Jens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. SWECO, Sweden.
    Cats, Oded
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. Delft University of Technology, Netherlands.
    Individual and Synergetic Effects of Transit Service Improvement Strategies: Simulation and Validation2017In: Journal of transportation engineering, ISSN 0733-947X, E-ISSN 1943-5436, Vol. 143, no 6, article id 04017061Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Assessment of transit service improvements such as bus lanes, allowing boarding through all doors, and headway-based holding control requires detailed simulation capabilities. However, because the usage of models advanced enough to simultaneously analyze physical and operational measures has been limited, their validity has hitherto remained low. This paper assesses the implementation of several bus service improvement measures in a simulation model. The paper analyzes the effect of isolated and combinations of measures, and validates the model using field experiment data. The model predicted travel time improvements accurately (1–2% difference), while overestimating some of the headway variability effects. The three tested measures exercised negative synergy effects, with their combined effect being smaller than the sum of their marginal contributions, except for headway-based holding, which exercised positive synergy effects with the two other measures.

  • 11.
    West, Jens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. SWECO, Sweden.
    Cats, Oded
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. Delft University of Technology, Netherlands.
    Modelling transit user adaptation and learningManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
1 - 11 of 11
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