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  • 1. Anjo, J.
    et al.
    Neves, D.
    Silva, C.
    Shivakumar, Abhishek
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Howells, Mark I.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Modeling the long-term impact of demand response in energy planning: The Portuguese electric system case study2018In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 165, p. 456-468Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    With the urge to decrease carbon emissions, electricity systems need to evolve to promote the integration of renewable resources and end-use energy efficiency. Demand Response (DR) can be used as a strategy, one among many, to improve the balance between demand and supply of electricity, especially in systems that rely heavily on variable energy renewable resources. Thus, it is important to understand up to what extent a countrywide system would cope with DR implementation. In this work, the impact of demand response in the long-term is assessed, using a model of the Portuguese electricity system in the modeling tool OSeMOSYS. The theoretical potential of DR is computed to understand better the impact on the overall system planning, by analyzing three scenarios – a business as usual scenario, a carbon-free system scenario in 2050, and a scenario without heavy carbon emission restrictions. DR impact in all three scenarios results in a decrease in the overall costs, on the capacity installed and in an increase in the percentage of renewable capacity. Further, an economic analysis showed that DR would take 15 years, on average, to influence the average electricity cost and that the reduction in total costs is mainly due to the avoided capacity investments. 

  • 2.
    Brinkerink, Maarten
    et al.
    University of Groningen.
    Shivakumar, Abhishek
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    SYSTEM DYNAMICS WITHIN TYPICAL DAYS OF A HIGH VARIABLE 2030 EUROPEAN POWER SYSTEMIn: Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The effect of variability in electricity generation on future high variable European power systems is a subject of extensive research within the current scientific literature. The common approach in these studies, regarding the assessment of the impact of the variability and related balancing assets, is by showing yearly aggregates (or longer) of results based on a variety of indicators. Although significant, these studies often lack in temporal details. This paper therefore focuses on the dynamics between load, generation, marginal cost and assets for balancing the generation variability, within a variety of typical days in a fully-integrated European power market. This is done by assessments of daily snapshots based on an hourly time resolution. The assessments underline the necessity of balancing assets, both during peaks as well as during lows in the output of variable generators. Interconnection capacity, electricity storage and demand response (DR) applications all contribute to renewables integration and to optimized utilization of cost-efficient generation capacity throughout the European power system. Important load flows from and towards load centers with high capacities of variable renewables are identified, as well as a significant role for transit countries with high interconnection capacities between these load centers. Despite the importance of electricity storage, it is shown that the traditional utilization of centralized electricity storage fleets becomes less viable with increasing penetration of variable renewables. A potential high CO2 price in the future European power market (€70-€75/MWh) can become a determining factor in the system dynamics. Large

  • 3.
    Gardumi, Francesco
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Shivakumar, Abhishek
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Morrison, Robbie
    Schillerstr 85, D-10627 Berlin, Germany..
    Taliotis, Constantinos
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Broad, Oliver
    UCL, Inst Sustainable Resources, London, England..
    Beltramo, Agnese
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Sridharan, Vignesh
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Howells, Mark I.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Hoersch, Jonas
    Frankfurt Inst Adv Studies, Frankfurt, Germany..
    Niet, Taco
    British Columbia Inst Technol, Burnaby, BC, Canada..
    Almulla, Youssef
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Ramos, Eunice
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology.
    Burandt, Thorsten
    Tech Univ Berlin, Workgrp Econ & Infrastruct Policy WIP, Berlin, Germany..
    Pena Balderrama, J. Gabriela
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Pinto de Moura, Gustavo Nikolaus
    Univ Fed Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, MG, Brazil..
    Zepeda, Eduardo
    United Nations Dept Econ & Social Affairs, Dev Policy & Anal Div, New York, NY USA..
    Alfstad, Thomas
    United Nations Dept Econ & Social Affairs, Dev Policy & Anal Div, New York, NY USA..
    From the development of an open-source energy modelling tool to its application and the creation of communities of practice: The example of OSeMOSYS2018In: Energy Strategy Reviews, ISSN 2211-467X, E-ISSN 2211-4688, Vol. 20, p. 209-228Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the last decades, energy modelling has supported energy planning by offering insights into the dynamics between energy access, resource use, and sustainable development. Especially in recent years, there has been an attempt to strengthen the science-policy interface and increase the involvement of society in energy planning processes. This has, both in the EU and worldwide, led to the development of open-source and transparent energy modelling practices. This paper describes the role of an open-source energy modelling tool in the energy planning process and highlights its importance for society. Specifically, it describes the existence and characteristics of the relationship between developing an open-source, freely available tool and its application, dissemination and use for policy making. Using the example of the Open Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), this work focuses on practices that were established within the community and that made the framework's development and application both relevant and scientifically grounded.

  • 4. Normark, B.
    et al.
    Faure-Schuyer, A.
    Shivakumar, Abhishek
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Taliotis, Constantinos
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Deane, P.
    Gottschling, J.
    Pattupara, R.
    Kannan, R.
    Jakši, D.
    Stupin, K.
    Hemert, R. V.
    Storage Solutions and Their Value2017In: Europe's Energy Transition: Insights for Policy Making, Elsevier, 2017, p. 173-187Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Energy storage has increasingly come into focus as a key transformational technology in the energy system. This is driven by several factors, including: (1) the increased electrification of the energy system and the associated changes in demand patterns, driven by new loads such as electric vehicles and heat pumps; (2) the decarbonization of the power system and the associated increases in the penetration of variable renewable electricity production, and related security of supply concerns. In this chapter we explore the evolving role of storage in the EU energy system-both at present and in the future. This includes proposed changes in current legislative frameworks to support the diffusion of storage technologies-a key enabler in the EU's transition to a reliable, flexible, and affordable energy system.

  • 5. Normark, B.
    et al.
    Shivakumar, Abhishek
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Welsch, Manuel
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology.
    DC Power Production and Consumption in Households2017In: Europe's Energy Transition: Insights for Policy Making, Elsevier, 2017, p. 237-248Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This chapter investigates the potential benefits and feasibility of household DC networks. Unlike the case of AC systems, a well-established set of standards for household DC networks is currently lacking. This work reviews some of the most promising suggestions and further analyzes those that are most suitable to be implemented. In addition, a comparative study is carried out between a hybrid AC-DC system and a proposed DC configuration, for different selected geographical conditions in the EU. Specifically, the comparative study focuses on energy savings from avoiding conversion losses, and economic payback. The choice of transitioning to DC networks in households is found to be dependent on the evolution of electricity consumption of household devices, residential solar PV penetration, and the cost of DC power converters. It is most likely that DC household networks will be taken up in parallel to the current AC system; a hybrid configuration with installations of parallel networks of AC and low-voltage DC distribution systems is a possible "transition solution." Some recent developments in favor of a transition of DC networks include the launch of USB 3.1 (capable of power delivery of up to 100. W), the dramatic fall in costs of solar PV since 2008, and growing support at the EU level for residential electricity storage through batteries. In addition, both the International Electrotechnical Commission and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers are actively engaged in developing DC network standards. This is critical for the large-scale adoption of low-voltage DC networks.

  • 6. Pfenninger, Stefan
    et al.
    Hirth, Lion
    Schlecht, Ingmar
    Schmid, Eva
    Wiese, Frauke
    Brown, Tom
    Davis, Chris
    Gidden, Matthew
    Heinrichs, Heidi
    Heuberger, Clara
    Hilpert, Simon
    Krien, Uwe
    Matke, Carsten
    Nebel, Arjuna
    Morrison, Robbie
    Mueller, Berit
    Plessmann, Guido
    Reeg, Matthias
    Richstein, Joern C.
    Shivakumar, Abhishek
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Staffell, Iain
    Trondle, Tim
    Wingenbach, Clemens
    Opening the black box of energy modelling: Strategies and lessons learned2018In: Energy Strategy Reviews, ISSN 2211-467X, E-ISSN 2211-4688, Vol. 19, p. 63-71Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The global energy system is undergoing a major transition, and in energy planning and decision-making across governments, industry and academia, models play a crucial role. Because of their policy relevance and contested nature, the transparency and open availability of energy models and data are of particular importance. Here we provide a practical how-to guide based on the collective experience of members of the Open Energy Modelling Initiative (Openmod). We discuss key steps to consider when opening code and data, including determining intellectual property ownership, choosing a licence and appropriate modelling languages, distributing code and data, and providing support and building communities. After illustrating these decisions with examples and lessons learned from the community, we conclude that even though individual researchers' choices are important, institutional changes are still also necessary for more openness and transparency in energy research.

  • 7.
    Shivakumar, Abhishek
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Conclusions2017In: Europe's Energy Transition: Insights for Policy Making, Elsevier, 2017, p. 219-220Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous chapters in this section addressed the need for a reliable, flexible, and secure energy system. Solutions to affordably achieve a transition to a low-carbon energy system that fulfills these criteria were proposed. These solutions included a combination of technological and regulatory actions. Further, this section briefly touched upon socioeconomic costs of electricity supply interruptions. In this chapter, the main conclusions are provided, building on the findings from the previous chapters.

  • 8.
    Shivakumar, Abhishek
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Dobbins, A.
    University of Stuttgart-IER, Stuttgart, Germany.
    Fahl, U.
    University of Stuttgart-IER, Stuttgart, Germany.
    Singh, A.
    Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen, Switzerland.
    Drivers of renewable energy deployment in the EU: An analysis of past trends and projections2019In: Energy Strategy Reviews, ISSN 2211-467X, E-ISSN 2211-4688, Vol. 26, article id 100402Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Energy policy in the European Union (EU) is driven by the objective to transition to an affordable, reliable, and low carbon energy system. To achieve this objective, the EU has explicitly stated targets for greenhouse reduction, shares of renewable energy sources (RES), and energy efficiency improvements for 2020 and 2030. In this paper, we focus on the drivers, barriers and enablers to achieving the EU's RES targets (20% by 2020 and 27% by 2030). Effective energy policies play a key role in the deployment of RES technologies. In order to design effective policies, a clear understanding of past trends and projections for future deployment is required. In this paper, we first analyse the past deployment of RES technologies for electricity supply (RES-E) in selected EU Member States. This highlights the key drivers, barriers, and enablers for deployment of RES in the past. In a second step, we conduct a meta-analysis of projections for RES-E shares from multiple well-established studies. Such an analysis will help in supporting the design of more effective energy policies and successfully achieving the EU's energy targets.

  • 9.
    Shivakumar, Abhishek
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Dobbins, Audrey
    University of Stuttgart-IER.
    Fahl, Ulrich
    University of Stuttgart-IER.
    Singh, Antriksh
    Paul Scherrer Institute.
    DRIVERS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENT IN THE EU: AN ANALYSIS OF PAST TRENDS AND PROJECTIONSIn: Energy Strategy Reviews, ISSN 2211-467X, E-ISSN 2211-4688Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Energy policy in the European Union (EU) is driven by the objective to transition to an affordable, reliable, and low carbon energy system. To achieve this objective, the EU has explicitly stated targets for greenhouse reduction, shares of renewable energy sources (RES), and energy efficiency improvements for 2020 and 2030. In this paper, we focus on the drivers, barriers and enablers to achieving the EU’s RES targets (20% by 2020 and 27% by 2030). Effective energy policies play a key role in the deployment of RES technologies. In order to design effective policies, a clear understanding of past trends and projections for future deployment is required. In this paper, we first analyse the past deployment of RES technologies for electricity supply (RES-E) in selected EU Member States. This highlights the key drivers, barriers, and enablers for deployment of RES in the past. In a second step, we conduct a meta-analysis of projections for RES-E shares from multiple well-established studies. Such an analysis will help in supporting the design of more effective energy policies and successfully achieving the EU’s energy targets.

  • 10.
    Shivakumar, Abhishek
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Faure, Aurélie
    Ifri.
    Normark, Bo
    EIT InnoEnergy.
    Gupta, Sunay
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Kober, Tom
    Paul Scherrer Institute.
    Bauer, Christian
    Paul Scherrer Institute.
    Xiaojin, Zhang
    Paul Scherrer Institute.
    Redefining electricity storage for a redesigned market in the EUIn: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Storage technologies have the potential to significantly support the EU’s electricity system, bringing a number of flexibility services. There are numerous electric energy storage (EES) technologies, tackling different magnitudes in terms of quantity of energy, ramp-up time, duration of discharge, costs, and lifetime. However, legislation around storage raises a number of challenges if analysed under the current unbundling rules involving a mix of regulated operators and market-based mechanisms. This stems partially from a non-inclusive definition of storage. The study provides an alternative definition which aims to capture the perspectives of multiple stakeholders. Furthermore, we discuss the need to value EES technologies such as batteries, pumped hydropower, flywheels, power-to-X, etc. based on their ability to provide different services. This is based on a techno-economic comparison of different EES technologies, given in additional tables. Finally, the study looks at how storage fits into the current regulatory system and proposes options for future systems so that EES are not discriminated against other flexibility options. A set of policy recommendations is provided that relates to the definition of storage, broadening ownership models, avoiding double grid fees, and valuing EES’ potential for supporting the EU’s 2030 energy and climate targets.

  • 11.
    Shivakumar, Abhishek
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Taliotis, Constantinos
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Deane, P.
    Gottschling, J.
    Pattupara, R.
    Kannan, R.
    Jakši, D.
    Stupin, K.
    Hemert, R. V.
    Normark, B.
    Faure-Schuyer, A.
    Need for Flexibility and Potential Solutions2017In: Europe's Energy Transition: Insights for Policy Making, Elsevier, 2017, p. 149-172Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    With an increasing penetration of variable renewables in the EU in recent years, the flexibility of its power system is of critical importance. In this chapter, we first assess flexibility considerations in the past, prior to market liberalization. We then analyze the impact of increasing penetration of renewables on flexibility requirements. Further, we identify existing options to provide this flexibility. Finally, we use model-based analysis, we quantitatively assess potential solutions to deploying temporary production and storage. Business models and potential evolutions of the legislative framework associated with the different solutions are also proposed.

  • 12.
    Shivakumar, Abhishek
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Welsch, Manuel
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology.
    Taliotis, Constantinos
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology.
    Jakši, D.
    Barievi, T.
    Howells, Mark I.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Need for Reliability and Measuring Its Cost2017In: Europe's Energy Transition - Insights for Policy Making, Elsevier, 2017, p. 207-218Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    At present, power supply in the EU is characterized by a relatively high reliability. It should, however, not be taken for granted given the increasing shares of variable RES. Choosing the socioeconomically optimal level of reliability to aim for requires a thorough understanding of the socioeconomic costs of electricity supply interruptions. This chapter provides guidance on how to measure the consequences of supply interruptions and thus determine the value of electricity supply security.

  • 13.
    Sridharan, Vignesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Broad, Oliver
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Shivakumar, Abhishek
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Howells, Mark I.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Boehlert, B.
    Groves, D. G.
    Rogner, Hans-Holger
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Taliotis, C.
    Neumann, J. E.
    Strzepek, K. M.
    Lempert, R.
    Joyce, B.
    Huber-Lee, A.
    Cervigni, R.
    Resilience of the Eastern African electricity sector to climate driven changes in hydropower generation2019In: Nature Communications, ISSN 2041-1723, E-ISSN 2041-1723, Vol. 10, no 1, article id 302Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Notwithstanding current heavy dependence on gas-fired electricity generation in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), hydropower is expected to play an essential role in improving electricity access in the region. Expansion planning of electricity infrastructure is critical to support investment and maintaining balanced consumer electricity prices. Variations in water availability due to a changing climate could leave hydro infrastructure stranded or result in underutilization of available resources. In this study, we develop a framework consisting of long-term models for electricity supply and water systems management, to assess the vulnerability of potential expansion plans to the effects of climate change. We find that the most resilient EAPP rollout strategy corresponds to a plan optimised for a slightly wetter climate compared to historical trends. This study demonstrates that failing to climate-proof infrastructure investments can result in significant electricity price fluctuations in selected countries (Uganda & Tanzania) while others, such as Egypt, are less vulnerable.

  • 14.
    Sridharan, Vignesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Ramos, Eunice
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Zepeda, E.
    United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), Development Policy and Analysis Division, 405 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017, United States.
    Boehlert, B.
    Industrial Economics Inc., 2067 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02140, United States.
    Shivakumar, Abhishek
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), Development Policy and Analysis Division, 405 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017, United States.
    Taliotis, C.
    The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, Aglantzia, Nicosia, 2121, Cyprus.
    Howells, Mark I.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    The impact of climate change on crop production in Uganda-An integrated systems assessment with water and energy implications2019In: Water, ISSN 2073-4441, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 11, no 9, article id 1805Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    With less than 3% of agricultural cropland under irrigation, subsistence farmers in Uganda are dependent on seasonal precipitation for crop production. The majority of crops grown in the country-especially staple food crops like Matooke (Plantains)-are sensitive to the availability of water throughout their growing period and hence vulnerable to climatic impacts. In response to these challenges, the Government has developed an ambitious irrigation master plan. However, the energy implications of implementing the plan have not been explored in detail. This article attempts to address three main issues involving the nexus between water, energy, crop production, and climate. The first one explores the impact of climate on rain-fed crop production. The second explores the irrigation crop water needs under selected climate scenarios. The third focuses on the energy implications of implementing the irrigation master plan. We attempt to answer the above questions using a water balance model for Uganda developed for this study. Our results, developed at a catchment level, indicate that on average there could be an 11% reduction and 8% increase in rain-fed crop production in the cumulatively driest and wettest climates, respectively. Furthermore, in the identified driest climate, the electricity required for pumping water is expected to increase by 12% on average compared to the base scenario.

  • 15.
    Taliotis, Constantinos
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Shivakumar, Abhishek
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Ramos, Eunice
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Howells, Mark I.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Mentis, Dimitris
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Sridharan, Vignesh
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Broad, Oliver
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy Systems Analysis.
    Mofor, Linus
    An indicative analysis of investment opportunities in the African electricity supply sector: Using TEMBA (The Electricity Model Base for Africa)2016In: Energy for Sustainable Development, ISSN 0973-0826, Vol. 31, p. 50-66Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Africa is a resource-rich continent but lacks the required power infrastructure. Efforts such as the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All and U.S. President Obama's Power Africa initiatives aim to facilitate much needed investment. However, no systematic national and regional investment outlook is available to analysts. This paper examines indicative scenarios of power plant investments based on potential for electricity trade. OSeMOSYS, a cost-optimization tool for long-term energy planning, is used to develop least cost system configurations. The electricity supply systems of forty-seven countries are modelled individually and linked via trade links to form TEMBA (The Electricity Model Base for Africa). A scenario comparison up to 2040 shows that an enhanced grid network can alter Africa's generation mix and reduce electricity generation cost. The insights have important investment, trade and policy implications, as specific projects can be identified as of major significance, and thus receive political support and funding.

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