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  • 1.
    Alfredsson, Eva
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Bengtsson, Magnus
    Szejnwald Brown, Halina
    Isenhour, Cindy
    Lorek, Sylvia
    Stevis, Dimitris
    Vergragt, Philip
    Why achieving the Paris Agreement requires reduced overall consumption and production2018Inngår i: Sustainability: Science, Practice, & Policy, E-ISSN 1548-7733, Vol. 14Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Technological solutions to the challenge of dangerous climate change are urgent and necessary but to be effective they need to be accompanied by reductions in the total level of consumption and production of goods and services. This is for three reasons. First, private consumption and its associated production are among the key drivers of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, especially among highly emitting industrialized economies. There is no evidence that decoupling of the economy from GHG emissions is possible at the scale and speed needed. Second, investments in more sustainable infrastructure, including renewable energy, needed in coming decades will require extensive amounts of energy, largely from fossil sources, which will use up a significant share of the two-degree carbon budget. Third, improving the standard of living of the world’s poor will consume a major portion of the available carbon allowance. The scholarly community has a responsibility to put the issue of consumption and the associated production on the research and policy agenda.

  • 2.
    Alfredsson, Eva C.
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Miljöstrategisk analys (fms).
    Malmaeus, J. Mikael
    Prospects for economic growth in the 21st century: A survey covering mainstream, heterodox and scientifically oriented perspectives2017Inngår i: Economic Issues, ISSN 1363-7029, Vol. 22, s. 65-87Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Despite the importance of economic growth for the current economy, business and societal planning there are few long-term growth projections undertaken. There is, however, a vivid debate on what is called the 'new normal' - secular stagnation - which is undertaken within academic disciplines. This overview covers mainstream, heterodox and scientifically oriented economic perspectives on the prospects for economic growth in the 21st century. The survey shows that existing long-term projections and scenarios indicate growth rates ranging from around half a percentage point less than during the last two decades (projected by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD), to dramatically lower growth rates). Differences stem from different perspectives on the determinants of economic growth and the potential for improvements in productivity. Headwinds are: an aging population, especially in OECD countries; resource constraints, including energy; increasing environmental costs in particular due to the consequences of climate change; overaccumulation; increasing income differences; and declining social capital. One conclusion is that policymaking based on the assumption that economic growth will continue at pre-crisis levels is unwise and risky.

  • 3.
    Alfredsson, Eva
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Malmaeus, Mikael
    Real capital investments and sustainability: - The case of Sweden2019Inngår i: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, E-ISSN 1873-6106, Vol. 161, s. 216-224Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Real capital investments are important for a transition to a more sustainable economy and for the continuous process of creative destruction and economic development. At the same time investments have negative environmental effects. In this paper we analyze to what extent the current investments in real capital (i.e.,buildings, machinery and infrastructures) in Sweden are sustainable in regard of the most important resources used in investments and in terms of CO2 emissions. This is evaluated based on Sweden's share of a sustainable use of these resources and our share of the remaining carbon budget for achieving the Paris agreement. In the analysis we have used best publicly available data and methods to indicatively establish sustainable levels of resource use and emissions. We find that 1 million invested SEK (US$ 110,000) generate 15–75 tonnes of CO2 emissions and use 80–260 MWh of energy, and on average 4.8 tonnes of iron, 0.2 tonnes of aluminum, 260 tonnes of gravel and sand and 6 tonnes of timber. Our analysis shows that within 50 years current investment would use up Sweden's CO2 budget available for achieving the Paris agreement, leaving no room for emissions from consumption. The use of timber, gravel and sand is above Sweden's share of a global yearly sustainable production. The current use of iron and aluminum can be maintained for 20–50 years, but approaches the sustainability criteria with a 200 year perspective.

  • 4. Bengtsson, Magnus
    et al.
    Alfredsson, Eva
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Cohen, Maurie
    New Jersey Inst Technol, Newark, NJ 07102 USA..
    Lorek, Sylvia
    Sustainable Europe Res Inst, Cologne, Germany..
    Schroeder, Patrick
    Inst Dev Studies, Brighton, E Sussex, England..
    Transforming systems of consumption and production for achieving the sustainable development goals: moving beyond efficiency2018Inngår i: Sustainability Science, ISSN 1862-4065, E-ISSN 1862-4057, Vol. 13, nr 6, s. 1533-1547Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The United Nations formulated the sustainable development goals (SDGs) in 2015 as a comprehensive global policy framework for addressing the most pressing social and environmental challenges currently facing humanity. In this paper, we analyse SDG 12, which aims to ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns. Despite long-standing political recognition of this objective, and ample scientific evidence both on its importance and on the efficacy of various ways of promoting it, the SDGs do not provide clear goals or effective guidance on how to accomplish this urgently needed transformation. Drawing from the growing body of research on sustainable consumption and production (SCP), the paper identifies two dominant vantage pointsone focused on promoting more efficient production methods and products (mainly through technological improvement and informed consumer choice) and the other stressing the need to consider also overall volumes of consumption, distributional issues, and related social and institutional changes. We label these two approaches efficiency and systemic. Research shows that while the efficiency approach contains essential elements of a transition to sustainability, it is by itself highly unlikely to bring about sustainable outcomes. Concomitantly, research also finds that volumes of consumption and production are closely associated with environmental impacts, indicating a need to curtail these volumes in ways that safeguard social sustainability, which is unlikely to be possible without a restructuring of existing socioeconomic arrangements. Analysing how these two perspectives are reflected in the SDGs framework, we find that in its current conception, it mainly relies on the efficiency approach. On the basis of this assessment, we conclude that the SDGs represent a partial and inadequate conceptualisation of SCP which will hamper implementation. Based on this determination, this paper provides some suggestions on how governments and other actors involved in SDGs operationalisation could more effectively pursue SCP from a systemic standpoint and use the transformation of systems of consumption and production as a lever for achieving multiple sustainability objectives.

  • 5.
    Hagbert, Pernilla
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö, Urbana och regionala studier.
    Finnveden, Göran
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Hållbarhet, utvärdering och styrning.
    Feuhrer, Paul
    Södertörn .
    Svenfelt, Åsa
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Alfredsson, Eva
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Aretun, Åsa
    VTI.
    Bradley, Karin
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö, Urbana och regionala studier.
    Callmer, Åsa
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö.
    Fauré, Eléonore
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Gunnarsson-Östling, Ulrika
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Hedberg, Marie
    IVL.
    Hornborg, Alf
    Lunds Universitet.
    Isaksson, Karolina
    VTI.
    Malmaeus, Mikael
    IVL.
    Malmqvist, Tove
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Hållbarhet, utvärdering och styrning.
    Nyblom, Åsa
    IVL.
    Skånberg, Kristian
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Öhlund, Erika
    Södertörn.
    Futures Beyond GDP Growth: Final report from the research program 'Beyond GDP Growth: Scenarios for sustainable building and planning'2019Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    A future society no longer based on economic growth – what would that look like?The research program “Beyond GDP Growth: Scenarios for sustainable building and planning” (www.bortombnptillvaxt.se) is a strong research environment funded by the Swedish Research CouncilFormas, which has run between 2014 and 2018. In collaboration with societal partners, the program hasgathered researchers from diferent disciplines to explore key issues and conditions for planning for asustainable future beyond GDP growth. This is a relevant contribution to a largely under-researchedarea, where few scientific studies have explored what a sustainable society could look like, and what asustainable economy that is not based on growth might actually mean.In economic and political discussions, the notion of continuous economic growth is often taken forgranted and seen as a prerequisite for a safe and sustainable societal development. At the same time,a blind faith in and expectations surrounding growth can constitute a threat to the development of asustainable society if growth declines. Also an optimistic prognosis from the OECD indicates that it islikely that future GDP growth will be lower than what has come to be seen as the normal level duringthe second half of the 20th century. Declining economic growth could mean risks for increased socialgaps and unemployment. However, economic models show that the possibilities for handling these risksincrease if there is an awareness of them, and if this is addressed politically. Therefore, it is important tonot just assume continued economic growth, but to plan also for alternative scenarios.A starting point for the research program has been an understanding of the significant transitionsneeded to approach a safe and just operating space for humanity within planetary boundaries. Fourgoals that should be met in order to consider the societal development sustainable were specified: twoenvironmental goals related to climate and land use, and two social goals regarding power, influence andparticipation, and welfare and resource security.Four scenarios for Sweden 2050 were developed, which show the diferent directions society could taketo reach the set sustainability goals. The scenarios illustrate future societies that do not have to build onthe current economic logic, but that instead are centred around four alternative strategies:Collaborative EconomyLocal Self-SufciencyAutomation for Quality of LifeCircular Economy in the Welfare StateSo, can we reach the selected sustainability targets in the four future scenarios? A transformation ofhistorical proportions are needed – and it needs to start immediately. According to the sustainabilityassessment conducted within the project, the environmental goals of climate and land use can be reachedin all scenarios, even though it demands changing multiple parameters at the same time. Nothing pointsto it being impossible or generally difcult to achieve the social goals in the four scenarios, however theremight be diferent aspects that are particularly tricky. There are both development potentials and risks,which can be diametrically opposite for diferent social groups and parts of the country, depending onthe local prerequisites.Many diferent images of sustainable futures are needed. The scenarios should be seen as a tool fordiscussion and analysis when it comes to planning for a sustainable societal development beyondGDP growth. They challenge notions of what is possible, what changes that can and should be made,6what decisions that are needed and what should be prioritized. The scenarios all suggest a largechange compared the current development trajectory, and for example all point towards the need forredistribution of resources. It might involve economic resources, but could also relate to power andinfluence over production, or the possibility to use land for production of food, materials and energy.This redistribution could happen according to diferent principles in the diferent scenarios.In all the scenarios, the consumption of goods and of meat is reduced. Flight travel also needs to bedrastically reduced to reach the climate target. There is furthermore a need for reducing the constructionof both housing and road infrastructure, although to varying extents in the four scenarios. Other aspectssuch as working hours, the organization of welfare systems, the characteristics of the built environmentand the amount of infrastructure needed are on the other hand diferent in the diferent scenarios.The research program has explored what a development that isn't based on economic growth, in linewith the strategies that are depicted in the scenarios, would mean for rural as well as urban conditions.Three case study municipalities were selected with regards to their diferent geographical location,built form, economic development and size of the population: Övertorneå, Alingsås and Malmö. Insome sub-studies in these diferent contexts, descriptions emerged of cognitive as well as structuralbarriers, a sense of powerlessness and a weak capacity for transition among diferent actors. This isconnected to expectations and general assumptions regarding growth, partly irrespective of the context.Municipalities and companies to a large extent plan for and expect a societal development that buildsupon a further expansion of infrastructure, transport and consumption. Despite visions for sustainabledevelopment, in practice this often leads to a reproduction of current unsustainable structures and waysof life.At the same time, specific empirical studies within the project point toward stories of self-sufciency,of regional upswings and that the population is more important than GDP. There is an increasedawareness and a multitude of examples of experimenting with new sustainable practices that constituteseeds for change. Critiques against planning for continuous growth is being taken more seriously andclearer political visions are demanded. New forms of organizing the economy, society and welfare arealso being developed. Some examples include working from a perspective on socio-ecological justice,integration of sustainability targets in all planning, and developing new roles for consumers andproducers. These ideas can be seen as windows of opportunity, but also show that change can happenwithin the current system.The future means change. In this research program, we point towards some possible futures that aimat reaching certain sustainability targets. The scenarios and the discussion and analysis that they havebrought about show that there is an opportunity to move towards a sustainable development withmaintained or even increased well-being – provided that the understanding of well-being is based onother values than those of our current society. For these possible future trajectories to gain support,there is a need of political instruments and measures that actively drive the development towards a justand safe operating space for humanity

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 6.
    Hagbert, Pernilla
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö, Urbana och regionala studier.
    Finnveden, Göran
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Hållbarhet, utvärdering och styrning.
    Fuehrer, Paul
    Svenfelt, Åsa
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Alfredsson, Eva
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Aretun, Åsa
    Bradley, Karin
    Callmer, Åsa
    Fauré, Eléonore
    Gunnarsson-Östling, Ulrika
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö.
    Hedberg, Marie
    Hornborg, Alf
    Isaksson, Karolina
    Malmaeus, Mikael
    Malmqvist, Tove
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö. KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik.
    Nyblom, Åsa
    Skånberg, Kristian
    Öhlund, Erika
    Framtider bortom BNP-tillväxt: slutrapport från forskningsprogrammet "Bortom BNP-tillväxt: scenarier för hållbart samhällsbyggande"2018Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Fulltekst (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 7.
    Karlsson, Mikael
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Filosofi och historia, Filosofi.
    Alfredsson, Eva
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Westling, Nils
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Filosofi och historia, Filosofi.
    Climate policy co-benefits: a review2020Inngår i: Climate Policy, ISSN 1469-3062, E-ISSN 1752-7457, Vol. 20, nr 3, s. 292-316Artikkel, forskningsoversikt (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Concern over mitigation costs impedes the adoption of the climate policies needed to achieve agreed global warming targets. While costs are important to consider, so are benefits. However, the evidence for climate policy co-benefits, that is, the benefits in addition to avoided climate change costs, is commonly overlooked in policy-making. In many areas, the research is limited and not comprehensively synthesised. This article counters that problem and reviews 239 peer-reviewed articles, selected from 1,749 hits from a literature search covering 'co-benefits' and related terms. Aiming to aid policy-makers and to identify research gaps, we structure, describe, analyse and synthesize the rapidly expanding knowledge on climate policy co-benefits. Improved air quality is the co-benefit category dominating the literature, but studies covering a broad geographic range also focus on diet, physical activity, soil and water quality, biodiversity, economic performance, and energy security. In these areas, co-benefits are shown to be of substantial economic value, regarding air quality often of the same order of magnitude as mitigation costs, in some instances even larger. However, the share of studies quantifying or monetizing co-benefits is limited, and the empirical evidence is small, in particular for areas besides air quality and health. Furthermore, the knowledge is seldom used in policy-making, meaning that decision-making is often biased and overly concerned with costs, leading to suboptimal climate policies and goal failures. Evidently, more research is needed, as well as improved decision-making. Understanding and acting on climate policy co-benefits can promote policies that better mitigate climate change and improve overall welfare. Key policy insights Climate policy co-benefits in well-researched fields such as air quality and health are large, often equalling or exceeding mitigation costs. Despite their significance, co-benefits are seldom considered in decision-making, leading to biased policies and goal failures. In several areas, such as diet and energy security, co-benefits are sparsely researched, but emerging evidence points to high values. More research is needed, including on how to describe the total value of different co-benefits. Improved processes, documentation requirements and criteria in decision-making are needed, in order to ensure that political decision-makers consider co-benefits.

  • 8. Malmaeus, J. M.
    et al.
    Alfredsson, Eva C.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Miljöstrategisk analys (fms).
    Potential Consequences on the Economy of Low or No Growth - Short and Long Term Perspectives2017Inngår i: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, Vol. 134, s. 57-64Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 9. Malmaeus, J. Mikael
    et al.
    Alfredsson, Eva
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Potential Consequences on the Economy of Low or No Growth - Short and Long Term Perspectives (vol 134, pg 57, 2017)2017Inngår i: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, E-ISSN 1873-6106, Vol. 138, s. 266-266Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
  • 10.
    Malmaeus, Mikael
    et al.
    IVL Swedish Environm Res Inst, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Alfredsson, Eva
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Birnbaum, Simon
    Södertörn Univ, Huddinge, Sweden.;Uppsala Univ, Inst Urban & Housing Res, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Basic Income and Social Sustainability in Post-Growth Economies2020Inngår i: Basic Income Studies, ISSN 2194-6094, Vol. 15, nr 1, artikkel-id 20190029Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    A central task in efforts to identify pathways to ecologically and socially sustainable economies is to reduce inequality and poverty while reducing material consumption, which has recently inspired future post-growth scenarios. We build a model to explore the potential of a universal basic income (UBI) to serve these objectives. Starting from the observation that post-growth trajectories can take very different forms we analyze UBI in two scenarios advanced in the literature. Comparing UBI in a "local self-sufficiency" economy to a UBI in an "automation" economy, we show that although both scenarios satisfy central sustainability criteria, the impact of a UBI would differ greatly between these contexts. Our analysis shows that a UBI is less compatible with a labor-intensive local self-sufficiency economy than a capital-intensive, high tech economy. We conclude that the feasibility and attractiveness of a UBI in a post-growth scenario depends greatly on the specific characteristics of the economy.

  • 11. Mathai, M. V.
    et al.
    Isenhour, C.
    Stevis, D.
    Vergragt, P.
    Bengtsson, M.
    Lorek, S.
    Mortensen, L. F.
    Coscieme, L.
    Scott, D.
    Waheed, A.
    Alfredsson, Eva
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    The Political Economy of (Un)Sustainable Production and Consumption: A Multidisciplinary Synthesis for Research and Action2020Inngår i: Resources, Conservation and Recycling, ISSN 0921-3449, E-ISSN 1879-0658, artikkel-id 105265Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Despite widespread recognition of the need to transition toward more sustainable production and consumption and numerous initiatives to that end, global resource extraction and corresponding socio-ecological degradation continue to grow. Understanding the causes of this persistent failure is a necessary step towards more effective action. This article contributes to that understanding by synthesizing theory and evidence that links unsustainable production-consumption systems to power and inequality. While sustainable consumption and production research and action mostly focuses on technological or behavioral change, the socio-ecological inequalities driving production-consumption systems built into the organization of our global political economy, remain largely overlooked. In response, we propose a structural political economy orientation that seeks explicitly to reduce these inequalities and advance environmental justice and, thus, create the conditions for sustainable production-consumption systems. We then propose three important arenas of research and action towards sustainable production-consumption systems: justice, governance, and co-production of knowledge and action. These arenas, collectively and individually, can serve as entry points to study and act on the dynamics of (un)sustainable production-consumption systems. This can be done at the micro level, with respect to specific commodity chains or systems of provisioning, or at meso and macro levels with respect to national and global production networks. Our proposed orientation helps distinguish research and practice proposals into those emphasizing management and compensation resulting often in persistence of unsustainability, from those proffering structural changes in unsustainable production-consumption systems. We invite critique and collaboration to develop this research and action agenda further.

  • 12. Pihl, E.
    et al.
    Alfredsson, Eva
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Bengtsson, M.
    Bowen, K. J.
    Cástan Broto, V.
    Chou, K. T.
    Cleugh, H.
    Ebi, K.
    Edwards, C. M.
    Fisher, E.
    Friedlingstein, P.
    Godoy-Faúndez, A.
    Gupta, M.
    Harrington, A. R.
    Hayes, K.
    Hayward, B. M.
    Hebden, S. R.
    Hickmann, T.
    Hugelius, G.
    Ilyina, T.
    Jackson, R. B.
    Keenan, T. F.
    Lambino, R. A.
    Leuzinger, S.
    Malmaeus, M.
    McDonald, R. I.
    McMichael, C.
    Miller, C. A.
    Muratori, M.
    Nagabhatla, N.
    Nagendra, H.
    Passarello, C.
    Penuelas, J.
    Pongratz, J.
    Rockström, J.
    Romero-Lankao, P.
    Roy, J.
    Scaife, A. A.
    Schlosser, P.
    Schuur, E.
    Scobie, M.
    Sherwood, S. C.
    Sioen, G. B.
    Skovgaard, J.
    Sobenes Obregon, E. A.
    Sonntag, S.
    Spangenberg, J. H.
    Spijkers, O.
    Srivastava, L.
    Stammer, D. B.
    Torres, P. H. C.
    Turetsky, M. R.
    Ukkola, A. M.
    Van Vuuren, D. P.
    Voigt, C.
    Wannous, C.
    Zelinka, M. D.
    Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan2020Inngår i: Global Sustainability, E-ISSN 2059-4798, artikkel-id e5Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost-benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- A nd long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science. 

  • 13.
    Svenfelt, Åsa
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Miljöstrategisk analys (fms).
    Alfredsson, Eva
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Miljöstrategisk analys (fms).
    Aretun, Åsa
    VTI.
    Bradley, Karin
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö, Urbana och regionala studier.
    Fauré, Eléonore
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Miljöstrategisk analys (fms).
    Fuehrer, Paul
    Södertörns Högskola.
    Gunnarsson-Östling, Ulrika
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Miljöstrategisk analys (fms).
    Hagbert, Pernilla
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö, Urbana och regionala studier.
    Isaksson, Karolina
    VTI.
    Malmaéus, Mikael
    IVL.
    Malmqvist, Tove
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Miljöstrategisk analys (fms).
    Stigson, Peter
    IVL.
    Testversion av scenarier för hållbart samhällsbyggande bortom BNP-tillväxt2015Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [sv]

    Den starka forskningsmiljön “Bortom BNP-tillväxt - Scenarier för hållbart samhällsbyggande” undersöker vad som skulle kunna hända i det svenska samhället när tillväxt inte ses som ett självändamål, utan målet istället är kvaliteter samhället kan tänkas vilja uppnå. Syftet med denna rapport är att beskriva testversionen av scenarier för Sverige 2050. Scenarierna är kvalitativa och ska skapa underlag för fortsatt utveckling, diskussioner och analys. Scenarierna är så kallade normativa backcasting-scenarier vilket innebär att de visar på framtida tillstånd där fyra hållbarhetsmål (klimat, markanvändning, delaktighet och försörjningstrygghet) ska uppfyllas. Inriktningen på de fyra scenarier är 1) kollaborativ ekonomi, 2) lokal självförsörjning, 3) automatisering för livskvalitet, och 4) cirkulär ekonomi i välfärdsstaten. Scenarierna presenteras som beskrivningar av framtiden i Sverige och med en kort beskrivning av den globala utvecklingen och utvecklingen i Sverige som kan förklara scenariots antaganden. Mycket arbete återstår. Till exempel ska scenarierna presenteras och diskuteras i flera forum det kommande året och återkoppling från diskussionerna ska arbetas in i en ny version av scenarierna. Ekonomiska modelleringar av scenarierna kommer också att genomföras, och därefter hållbarhetsutvärderingar och fördjupningar av delar av scenarierna

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    Bortom BNP tillväxt
  • 14.
    Svenfelt, Åsa
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Alfredsson, Eva
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Bradley, Karin
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö, Urbana och regionala studier.
    Fauré, Eléonore
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Finnveden, Göran
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Hållbarhet, utvärdering och styrning.
    Fuehrer, Paul
    Södertörn Univ, Sch Social Sci, Huddinge, Sweden..
    Gunnarsson-Östling, Ulrika
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö, Urbana och regionala studier. KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Isaksson, Karolina
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö, Urbana och regionala studier. KTH Royal Inst Technol, Dept Urban Planning & Environm, Div Urban & Reg Studies, SE-10044 Stockholm, Sweden.;VTI Swedish Natl Rd & Transport Res Inst, MAP Unit, SE-10215 Stockholm, Sweden..
    Malmaeus, Mikael
    IVL Swedish Environm Res Inst, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Malmqvist, Tove
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik. KTH Royal Inst Technol, Dept Sustainable Dev Environm Sci & Engn, SE-10044 Stockholm, Sweden..
    Skånberg, Kristian
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier. KTH Royal Inst Technol, Dept Sustainable Dev Environm Sci & Engn, SE-10044 Stockholm, Sweden..
    Stigson, Peter
    IVL Swedish Environm Res Inst, Stockholm, Sweden.;PE, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Aretun, Asa
    VTI Swedish Natl Rd & Transport Res Inst, MAP Unit, SE-10215 Stockholm, Sweden..
    Buhr, Katarina
    IVL Swedish Environm Res Inst, Stockholm, Sweden.;Swedish Res Council Formas, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Hagbert, Pernilla
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö, Urbana och regionala studier.
    Ohlund, Erika
    Sodertorn Univ, Sch Nat Sci Technol & Environm Studies, SE-14189 Huddinge, Sweden..
    Scenarios for sustainable futures beyond GDP growth 20502019Inngår i: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 111, s. 1-14Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    The idea of continued economic growth is increasingly questioned and critically analysed on the basis of its potential negative sustainability impact. Along with the critique, visions and strategies for alternative systems need also be brought onto the agenda. The aim of this paper is to present the qualitative content of scenarios that explore sustainability strategies for the Swedish society when economic growth is not seen as an end in itself, and instead the objective is other values/targets that society might wish to achieve. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are developed that illustrate future states in which four sustainability targets (climate, land use, participation, and resource security) are to be attained. The focus of these four scenarios is: 1) a Collaborative economy, 2) Local self-sufficiency, 3) Automation for quality of life, and 4) Circular economy in the welfare state. In the paper, we also present the process of the development of the scenarios, and feedback from stakeholders. Although the focus is on Sweden, the process and scenarios may also be relevant for other similar countries. The scenarios are discussed in terms of their relevance and their purpose, the fulfilment of the sustainability targets, and the multi-target approach.

  • 15.
    Svenfelt, Åsa
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Alfredsson, Eva
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Bradley, Karin
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö, Urbana och regionala studier.
    Fauré, Eléonore
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Finnveden, Göran
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Hållbarhet, utvärdering och styrning.
    Fuehrer, Paul
    Södertörn Högskola.
    Gunnarsson-Östling, Ulrika
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Hållbarhet, utvärdering och styrning.
    Malmaeus, Mikael
    IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Malmqvist, Tove
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Hållbarhet, utvärdering och styrning.
    Aretun, Åsa
    VTI.
    Buhr, Katarina
    IVL, Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Hagbert, Pernilla
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö, Urbana och regionala studier.
    Isaksson, Karolina
    VTI.
    Öhlund, Erika
    Södertörn University.
    Skånberg, Kristian
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Strategiska hållbarhetsstudier.
    Stigson, Peter
    IVL, Svenska Miljöinstitutet.
    Scenarios for sustainable futures beyond GDP growth 2050Manuskript (preprint) (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    The idea of continued economic growth is increasingly questioned and critically analysed on the basis of its potential negative sustainability impact. Along with the critique, visions and strategies for alternative systems need also be brought onto the agenda. The aim of this paper is to present the qualitative content of scenarios that explore sustainability strategies for Swedish society when economic growth is not seen as an end in itself, and the goal is instead other values/goals that society might wish to achieve. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are developed, that illustrate future states in which four sustainability targets (climate, land use, participation and resource security) are to be attained. The focus of the four scenarios is: 1) collaborative economy, 2) local self-sufficiency, 3) automation for quality of life, and 4) circular economy in the welfare state. In the paper, we also present the process of the development of the scenarios and feedback from stakeholders. Although the focus is on Sweden, the process and scenarios should also be relevant for other similar countries. The scenarios are discussed in terms of their relevance and their purpose, the fulfilment of the sustainability goals and the multi-target approach.

    Fulltekst (pdf)
    Scenarios for sustainable futures beyond GDP growth 2050
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