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  • 1.
    Moustaid, Elhabib
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Biomedical Engineering and Health Systems, Health Informatics and Logistics.
    Perspectives on Modeling and Simulation of Urban Systems with Multiple Actors and Subsystems2019Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Cities are the spaces of the interaction between social, physical, political, and economic entities, which makes planning and intervening in such systems difficult. Urban systems are complex adaptive systems in that their behaviours are often the result of the interaction of their components. The growth of urban systems is driven by mass urbanization. Their complexity is the result of interactions between its constituent systems and components.

    Simulations and models as tools of exploration of urban systems face many challenges to be useful tools for intervening. Throughout the past decades, the use of simulation models focused on providing tools for managing functions and systems within metropolitan and urban environments. The cognizance of the complexity of these environments and the maturity of complexity science as a field of studying complex systems allow for the application of complexity science methods to study urban systems not only as physical systems but as social systems too.

    As learning from simulations and models can occur both at their construction and their use, this thesis focused on model and simulation building, running, and final use. The thesis takes into account two main aspects of urban systems. First, urban systems are often multi-stakeholder, that is systems where multiple stakeholders are intervening at the same time, and sometimes without clear boundaries and agency over sub-parts of the system. Second, urban systems can have a multi-subsystem structure, where each subsystem often have their objectives and affecting the rest of the system in unfamiliar ways.

    The thesis investigates through a multicase study, with three case studies, five main themes in simulation modeling that relate to increasing validity and usefulness of models for urban complex systems. Those themes are as follows; (1) the ability of simulation to be tools that capture complexity in ways that are similar to the real target systems, (2) the effects of the inclusion of experts in simulation models construction on the models, (3) the ways quantitative and qualitative ways of modeling can together make simulations and models more useful, (4) the value of simulation modeling to study connections in systems that are multi-system and multi-stakeholder, and (5) the ability to learn from models under the model building journey.

    The study cases included are modeling of a city pedestrian network, a metropolitan emergency care provision, and urban mental health dynamics. The case studies provided a diversity of system granularity. The methods used for each of the case studies have also been different in able to study different levels of inclusion of expert knowledge, data, and theoretical models.

    Besides its contribution to each of the case studies, with new models and simulation approaches, the thesis contributes to the five themes it investigated. It showed simulation modeling to be able to exhibit multiple elements of complexity. It also showed the ability of expert knowledge to help models become more useful and valid either by increasing their realism or level of representation. This result is achieved by the contextualization of the expert knowledge in the case of pedestrian modeling, and its full exploration in the mental health modeling. Furthermore, the thesis shows ways in which simulation and modeling can find and investigate bridges between urban subsystems. The outcomes suggest that simulation modeling can be a useful tool for exploring different kinds of complexity in urban systems as multi-actor and multi-system systems. Models can mirror the complexity of urban systems in their structure. They can also be ways of exploring non-intuitive behaviors and dynamics. Expert knowledge, in particular, is shown throughout the thesis to be able to help simulations achieve more validity and usefulness.

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  • 2.
    Moustaid, Elhabib
    et al.
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Biomedical Engineering and Health Systems, Health Informatics and Logistics.
    Kornevs, Maksims
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Biomedical Engineering and Health Systems, Health Informatics and Logistics.
    Lindencrona, Fredrik
    SKL.
    Meijer, Sebastiaan
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Biomedical Engineering and Health Systems, Health Informatics and Logistics.
    A System of Systems of Mental Health in Cities: Digging Deep into the Origins of Complexity2020In: Administration and Policy in Mental Health and Mental Health Services Research, ISSN 0894-587X, E-ISSN 1573-3289, Vol. 47, no 6, p. 961-971Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Mental health in urban environments is often treated from a healthcare provision perspective. Research in recent decades showed that mental illness in cities is a result of dysfunctional coordination between different city systems and structures. Given the nature of the city as a system of systems, this work builds participatorily a general system dynamic model of factors that affect mental health in urban and regional environments. Through this method, we investigated the challenges of the application of such methodology to identify important factors, feedback loops, and dependencies between systems to move forward in planning for mental health in cities. The outcome is a general model that showed the importance of factors that vary from individuals, families to communities and feedback loops that span multiple systems such as the city physical infrastructures, social environments, schools, labor market, and healthcare provision.

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    A system of systems of MH
  • 3.
    Moustaid, Elhabib
    et al.
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH).
    Kornevs, Maksims
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Biomedical Engineering and Health Systems, Health Informatics and Logistics.
    Meijer, Sebastiaan
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Biomedical Engineering and Health Systems, Health Informatics and Logistics.
    Sensitivity Analysis of policy options for urban mental health using system dynamics and fuzzy cognitive maps2019In: Proceedings of the 2019 Winter Simulation Conference / [ed] N. Mustafee, K.-H.G. Bae, S. Lazarova-Molnar, M. Rabe, C. Szabo, P. Haas, and Y.-J. Son, eds., 2019Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Urban mental health challenges call for new ways of designing policies to address the ongoing mental health issues in cities. Policymaking for mental health in cities is extremely difficult due to the complex nature of mental health, the structure of cities, and their multiple subsystems. This paper presents a general system dynamic model of factors affecting mental health and a method to test the sensitivity of the model to policy options using an approach combining system dynamics and fuzzy cognitive maps. The method is developed and tested to evaluate policies built around feedback loops. The approach succeeded in identifying the factors that substantially improve the mental health of the city population for specific contexts. It also suggests the coordination needed between different subsystems to reach these objectives.

  • 4.
    Moustaid, Elhabib
    et al.
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH).
    Meijer, Sebastiaan
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Biomedical Engineering and Health Systems, Health Informatics and Logistics.
    A hybrid approach for building models and simulations for smart cities: Expert knowledge and low dimensionality2017In: Proceedings of the 2017 Winter Simulation Conference, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2017, p. 1551-1562Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In face of high urbanization and increasing mobility, models and simulations are used to find answers for urban planning problems. However, simulations face criticism for over-simplifying complex reality, having models disconnected from the context of their use or excluding policy-makers from the building of models. Smart city approaches did not overcome that reality even if they relied more and more on microscopic models, together with data available through technology. This article describes a hybrid approach combining the expert knowledge on the city and its limits in terms of data, with models having the right dimensionality to provide policy-makers and urban managers with the necessary information for understanding and managing the city. This approach has been applied in Venice, but it describes in more general terms a way of bridging the world of theoretically sound models with their potential use.

  • 5.
    Moustaid, Elhabib
    et al.
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Biomedical Engineering and Health Systems, Health Informatics and Logistics.
    Meijer, Sebastiaan
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Biomedical Engineering and Health Systems, Health Informatics and Logistics.
    A System Approach to Study Waiting Times at Emergency Departments in Metropolitan Environments2019In: Proceedings of the 2019 Winter Simulation Conference / [ed] N. Mustafee, K.-H.G. Bae, S. Lazarova-Molnar, M. Rabe, C. Szabo, P. Haas, and Y.-J. Son, Piscataway, New Jersey: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2019Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Providing quality emergency care is one of the biggest challenges faced in healthcare today. This article lays the groundwork for operating and planning emergency care provision in metropolitan environments using a system approach that goes beyond studying each emergency department in isolation. The approach consists of the development of an agent-based simulation using a bottom-up approach modeling patients, doctors, hospitals, and their interactions. The simulation is validated against real historical data of waiting times in the Stockholm region. Through experimentation with the simulation, changing the way patients choose emergency departments in metropolitan areas through the provision of information in real-time is shown to have generally a positive effect on waiting times and the quality of care. The simulation analysis shows that the effects are not uniform over the whole system and its agents.

  • 6.
    Moustaid, Elhabib
    et al.
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Biomedical Engineering and Health Systems, Health Informatics and Logistics.
    Richard, Romain
    Meijer, Sebastiaan
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Biomedical Engineering and Health Systems, Health Informatics and Logistics.
    Agent-Based Modeling of a Network of Emergency Departments in Urban Environments2018In: The CSCI'18 International Conference on Computational Science and Computational Intelligence / [ed] Hamid R. Arabnia, Leonidas Deligiannidis, Fernando G. Tinetti, and Quoc-Nam Tran, Piscataway, New Jersey, 2018, p. 697-702Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Modeling the workload of emergency departments traditionally looks into single hospitals. Today, in a world of high urbanization and increasing levels of exchange of flows of information and patients, it is important to have a systems approach when planning or managing emergency care. This paper presents a low-dimensional Agent-Based Simulation to model the provision of emergency care in a metropolitan environment. The model explores the patient choice of emergency departments and its effects on waiting times. Through the Stockholm use-case, the model is shown to be a good fit against data. The model showed also consistent results when tried with another predictable scenario. 

  • 7.
    Raghothama, Jayanth
    et al.
    KTH, School of Technology and Health (STH), Health Systems Engineering.
    Moustaid, Elhabib
    KTH, School of Technology and Health (STH), Health Systems Engineering.
    Magal Shreenath, Vinutha
    KTH, School of Technology and Health (STH), Health Systems Engineering.
    Meijer, Sebastiaan
    KTH, School of Technology and Health (STH), Health Systems Engineering.
    Bridging borders: Integrating data analytics, modeling, simulation, and gaming for interdisciplinary assessment of health aspects in city networks2017In: City Networks: Collaboration and Planning for Health and Sustainability, Springer, 2017, p. 137-155Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The health perspective in urban science brings new methodological challenges to planning of city networks. Due to the system of systems nature of healthcare, new methods are needed to facilitate disciplinary integration and management of models and models-of-models. Participation of stakeholders and policy makers demands the uptake of new methods and a new perspective on the use of interfaces and boundary objects. In this chapter, the authors discuss evidence from five projects that use gaming, simulation, modeling, and data analytics in unconventional ways for design of large-scale urban systems to provide a methodological path forward for overcoming traditional engineering approach issues.

  • 8. Zomer, Lara-Britt
    et al.
    Moustaid, Elhabib
    KTH, School of Technology and Health (STH), Health Systems Engineering, Health Care Logistics.
    Meijer, Sebastiaan
    KTH, School of Technology and Health (STH), Health Systems Engineering, Health Care Logistics.
    A Meta-Model for Including Social Behavior and Data into Simulation in the Smart City Context2015In: Proceedings of the 2015 Winter Simulation Conference / [ed] L. Yilmaz, W. K. V. Chan, I. Moon, T. M. K. Roeder, C. Macal, and M. D. Rossetti, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2015, p. 1705-1716Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    mart city management can be regarded to bridge different realms of thinking about cities, i.e., 1) the city as complex-adaptive system, 2) socio-technical operational control center and 3) multi-actor policy-making. Underpinned by different world views and theoretical bodies, integration of the three realms puts forward new demands on simulation approaches and challenges current knowledge and available technology regarding integration of sub-models across different systems. In order to support urban transportation management, a holistic approach is needed that semantically connects the three realms by incorporation of human behavior and knowledge. Combining research on knowledge management and computer science, this paper presents a novel meta-framework as socio-technical hybrid simulation language to generalize integration of simulations, gaming and data for modeling urban transportation.

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