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  • 1. Abawallo, S. S.
    et al.
    Brandimarte, L.
    Maglionico, M.
    Analysis of the performance response of offline detention basins to inlet structure design2013Ingår i: Irrigation and Drainage, Vol. 62, nr 4, s. 449-457Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 2. Ahlers, R.
    et al.
    Brandimarte, L.
    Kleemans, I.
    Sadat, S. H.
    Ambitious development on fragile foundations: Criticalities of current large dam construction in Afghanistan2014Ingår i: Geoforum, Vol. 54, s. 49-58Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 3. Brandimarte, L.
    et al.
    Brath, A.
    Castellarin, A.
    Baldassarre, G. D.
    Isla Hispaniola: A trans-boundary flood risk mitigation plan2009Ingår i: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Vol. 34, nr 4-5, s. 209-218Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 4. Brandimarte, L.
    et al.
    Di Baldassarre, G.
    Uncertainty in design flood profiles derived by hydraulic modelling2012Ingår i: Hydrology Research, Vol. 43, nr 6, s. 753-761Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 5. Brandimarte, L.
    et al.
    Di Baldassarre, G.
    Bruni, G.
    D'Odorico, P.
    Montanari, A.
    Relation Between the North-Atlantic Oscillation and Hydroclimatic Conditions in Mediterranean Areas2011Ingår i: Water Resources Management, Vol. 25, nr 5, s. 1269-1279Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 6. Brandimarte, L.
    et al.
    D'Odorico, P.
    Montanari, A.
    A probabilistic approach to the analysis of contraction scour2006Ingår i: Journal of Hydraulic Research, Vol. 44, nr 5, s. 654-662Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 7. Brandimarte, L.
    et al.
    Montanari, A.
    Briaud, J. -L
    D'Odorico, P.
    Stochastic flow analysis for predicting river scour of cohesive soils2006Ingår i: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 132, nr 5, s. 493-500Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 8. Brandimarte, L.
    et al.
    Paron, P.
    Di Baldassarre, G.
    Bridge pier scour: A review of processes, measurements and estimates2012Ingår i: Environmental Engineering and Management Journal, Vol. 11, nr 5, s. 975-989Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 9. Brandimarte, L.
    et al.
    Popescu, I.
    Neamah, N. K.
    Analysis of fresh-saline water interface at the Shatt Al-Arab estuary2015Ingår i: International Journal of River Basin Management, Vol. 13, nr 1, s. 17-25Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 10. Brandimarte, L.
    et al.
    Woldeyes, M. K.
    Uncertainty in the estimation of backwater effects at bridge crossings2013Ingår i: Hydrological Processes, Vol. 27, nr 9, s. 1292-1300Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 11. Brandimarte, Luigia
    The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions, unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human–water systems2016Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, nr 9, s. 1748-1758Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 12. Briaud, J. -L
    et al.
    Brandimarte, L.
    Wang, J.
    D’Odorico, P.
    Probability of scour depth exceedance owing to hydrologic uncertainty2007Ingår i: Georisk, Vol. 1, nr 2, s. 77-88Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 13. Castellarin, A.
    et al.
    Galeati, G.
    Brandimarte, L.
    Montanari, A.
    Brath, A.
    Regional flow-duration curves: Reliability for ungauged basins2004Ingår i: Advances in Water Resources, Vol. 27, nr 10, s. 953-965Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 14. Di Baldassarre, G.
    et al.
    Kooy, M.
    Kemerink, J. S.
    Brandimarte, L.
    Towards understanding the dynamic behaviour of floodplains as human-water systems2013Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 17, nr 8, s. 3235-3244Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 15. Di Baldassarre, G.
    et al.
    Montanari, A.
    Lins, H.
    Koutsoyiannis, D.
    Brandimarte, L.
    Blschl, G.
    Flood fatalities in Africa: From diagnosis to mitigation2010Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, nr 22, artikel-id L22402Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 16. Di Baldassarre, G.
    et al.
    Schumann, G.
    Brandimarte, L.
    Bates, P.
    Timely Low Resolution SAR Imagery To Support Floodplain Modelling: A Case Study Review2011Ingår i: Surveys in Geophysics, Vol. 32, nr 3, s. 255-269Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 17. Di Baldassarre, G.
    et al.
    Viglione, A.
    Carr, G.
    Kuil, L.
    Yan, K.
    Brandimarte, L.
    Blöschl, G.
    Debates - Perspectives on socio-hydrology: Capturing feedbacks between physical and social processes2015Ingår i: Water Resources Research, Vol. 51, nr 6, s. 4770-4781Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 18. Di Baldassarre, G.
    et al.
    Yan, K.
    Ferdous, M. R.
    Brandimarte, L.
    The interplay between human population dynamics and flooding in Bangladesh: A spatial analysis2014Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
  • 19. Domeneghetti, A.
    et al.
    Gandolfi, S.
    Castellarin, A.
    Brandimarte, L.
    Di Baldassarre, G.
    Barbarella, M.
    Brath, A.
    Flood risk mitigation in developing countries: Deriving accurate topographic data for remote areas under severe time and economic constraints2015Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management, Vol. 8, nr 4, s. 301-314Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 20.
    Ferdous, Md Ruknul
    et al.
    IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Dept Integrated Water Syst & Governance, Delft, Netherlands.;Univ Amsterdam, Fac Social & Behav Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands..
    Wesselink, Anna
    IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Dept Integrated Water Syst & Governance, Delft, Netherlands..
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik.
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Dept Integrated Water Syst & Governance, Delft, Netherlands.;Uppsala Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Uppsala, Sweden.;Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Rahman, Md Mizanur
    CEGIS, River Delta & Coastal Morphol Div, Dhaka, Bangladesh..
    The levee effect along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh2019Ingår i: Water international, ISSN 0250-8060, E-ISSN 1941-1707Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The levee effect refers to the paradox that the construction of a levee to protect from flooding might induce property owners to invest more in their property, increasing the potential damages should the levee breach. Thus, paradoxically, the levee might increase flood risk. The levee effect was observed for high-income countries. We analyze whether it can also be observed in a low-income country, Bangladesh. In the Jamuna floodplain different levels of flood protection have existed alongside each other since the 1960s, so their effects can be compared.

  • 21.
    Ferdous, Md Ruknul
    et al.
    IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Dept Integrated Water Syst & Governance, NL-2611 AX Delft, Netherlands.;Univ Amsterdam, Fac Social & Behav Sci, NL-1012 WX Amsterdam, Netherlands..
    Wesselink, Anna
    IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Dept Integrated Water Syst & Governance, NL-2611 AX Delft, Netherlands..
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Resurser, energi och infrastruktur.
    Slager, Kymo
    Deltares, NL-2600 MH Delft, Netherlands..
    Zwarteveen, Margreet
    IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Dept Integrated Water Syst & Governance, NL-2611 AX Delft, Netherlands.;Univ Amsterdam, Fac Social & Behav Sci, NL-1012 WX Amsterdam, Netherlands..
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Dept Integrated Water Syst & Governance, NL-2611 AX Delft, Netherlands.;Uppsala Univ, Dept Earth Sci, S-75236 Uppsala, Sweden.;CNDS, Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci, S-75236 Uppsala, Sweden..
    Socio-hydrological spaces in the Jamuna River floodplain in Bangladesh2018Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 22, nr 10, s. 5159-5173Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Socio-hydrology aims to understand the dynamics and co-evolution of coupled human-water systems, with research consisting of generic models as well as specific case studies. In this paper, we propose a concept to help bridge the gap between these two types of socio-hydrological studies: socio-hydrological spaces (SHSs). A socio-hydrological space is a geographical area in a landscape. Its particular combination of hydrological and social features gives rise to the emergence of distinct interactions and dynamics (patterns) between society and water. Socio-hydrological research on human-flood interactions has found two generic responses, "fight" or "adapt". Distilling the patterns resulting from these responses in case studies provides a promising way to relate contextual specificities to the generic patterns described by conceptual models. Through the use of SHSs, different cases can be compared globally without aspiring to capturing them in a formal model. We illustrate the use of SHS for the Jamuna floodplain, Bangladesh. We use narratives and experiences of local experts and inhabitants to empirically describe and delimit SHS. We corroborated the resulting classification through the statistical analysis of primary data collected for the purpose (household surveys and focus group discussions) and secondary data (statistics, maps etc.). Our example of the use of SHSs shows that the concept draws attention to how historical patterns in the co-evolution of social behaviour, natural processes and technological interventions give rise to different landscapes, different styles of living and different ways of organising livelihoods. This provides a texture to the more generic patterns generated by socio-hydrological models, promising to make the resulting analysis more directly useful for decision makers. We propose that the usefulness of this concept in other floodplains, and for other socio-hydrological systems than floodplains, should be explored.

  • 22.
    Ferdous, Md Ruknul
    et al.
    IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Dept Integrated Water Syst & Governance, NL-2611 AX Delft, Netherlands.;Univ Amsterdam, Fac Social & Behav Sci, NL-1012 WX Amsterdam, Netherlands..
    Wesselink, Anna
    IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Dept Integrated Water Syst & Governance, NL-2611 AX Delft, Netherlands..
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik.
    Slager, Kymo
    Deltares, NL-2600 MH Delft, Netherlands..
    Zwarteveen, Margreet
    IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Dept Integrated Water Syst & Governance, NL-2611 AX Delft, Netherlands.;Univ Amsterdam, Fac Social & Behav Sci, NL-1012 WX Amsterdam, Netherlands..
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Dept Integrated Water Syst & Governance, NL-2611 AX Delft, Netherlands.;Uppsala Univ, Dept Earth Sci, SE-75236 Uppsala, Sweden.;CNDS, Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci, SE-75236 Uppsala, Sweden..
    The Costs of Living with Floods in the Jamuna Floodplain in Bangladesh2019Ingår i: Water, ISSN 2073-4441, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 11, nr 6, artikel-id 1238Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Bangladeshi people use multiple strategies to live with flooding events and associated riverbank erosion. They relocate, evacuate their homes temporarily, change cropping patterns, and supplement their income from migrating household members. In this way, they can reduce the negative impact of floods on their livelihoods. However, these societal responses also have negative outcomes, such as impoverishment. This research collects quantitative household data and analyzes changes of livelihood conditions over recent decades in a large floodplain area in north-west Bangladesh. It is found that while residents cope with flooding events, they do not achieve successful adaptation. With every flooding, people lose income and assets, which they can only partially recover. As such, they are getting poorer, and therefore less able to make structural adjustments that would allow adaptation in the longer term.

  • 23. Gandolfi, S.
    et al.
    Castellarin, A.
    Barbarella, M.
    Brath, A.
    Domeneghetti, A.
    Brandimarte, L.
    Di Baldassarre, G.
    Rio soliette (Haiti): An international initiative for flood-hazard assessment and mitigation2013Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
  • 24. Hailemariam, F. M.
    et al.
    Brandimarte, L.
    Dottori, F.
    Investigating the influence of minor hydraulic structures on modeling flood events in lowland areas2014Ingår i: Hydrological Processes, Vol. 28, nr 4, s. 1742-1755Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 25. Mazzoleni, M.
    et al.
    Barontini, S.
    Ranzi, R.
    Brandimarte, L.
    Innovative probabilistic methodology for evaluating the reliability of discrete levee reaches owing to piping2015Ingår i: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 20, nr 5, artikel-id 04014067Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 26. Mazzoleni, M.
    et al.
    Dottori, F.
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Byggvetenskap, Vattendragsteknik.
    Tekle, S.
    Martina, M. L. V.
    Effects of levee cover strength on flood mapping in the case of levee breach due to overtopping2017Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 62, nr 6, s. 892-910Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The reliability of a levee system is a crucial factor in flood risk management. In this study we present a probabilistic methodology to assess the effects of levee cover strength on levee failure probability, triggering time, flood propagation and consequent impacts on population and assets. A method for determining fragility curves is used in combination with the results of a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model to estimate the conditional probability of levee failure in each river section. Then, a levee breach model is applied to calculate the possible flood hydrographs, and for each breach scenario a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to estimate flood hazard (flood extent and timing, maximum water depths) and flood impacts (economic damage and affected population) in the areas at risk along the river reach. We show an application for levee overtopping and different flood scenarios for a 98 km reach of the lower Po River in Italy. The results show how different design solutions for the levee cover can influence the probability of levee failure and the consequent flood scenarios. In particular, good grass cover strength can significantly delay levee failure and reduce maximum flood depths in the flood-prone areas, thus helping the implementation of flood risk management actions.

  • 27. Mazzoleni, Maurizio
    et al.
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik.
    Amaranto, Alessandro
    Evaluating precipitation datasets for large-scale distributed hydrological modelling2019Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 578Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We are experiencing a proliferation of satellite derived precipitation datasets. Advantages and limitations of their promising application in hydrological modelling application have been broadly investigated. However, most studies have analysed only the performance of one or few datasets, were limited to selected small-scale case studies or used lumped models when investigating large-scale basins.

    In this study, we compared the performance of 18 different precipitation datasets when used as main forcing in a grid-based distributed hydrological model to assess streamflow in medium to large-scale river basins. These datasets are classified as Uncorrected Satellites (Class 1), Corrected Satellites (Class 2) and Reanalysis – Gauges based datasets (Class 3). To provide a broad-based analysis, 8 large-scale river basins (Amazon, Brahmaputra, Congo, Danube, Godavari, Mississippi, Rhine and Volga) having different sizes, hydrometeorological characteristics, and human influence were selected. The distributed hydrological model was recalibrated for each precipitation dataset individually.

    We found that there is not a unique best performing precipitation dataset for all basins and that results are very sensitive to the basin characteristics. However, a few datasets persistently outperform the others: SM2RAIN-ASCAT for Class 1, CHIRPS V2.0, MSWEP V2.1, and CMORPH-CRTV1.0 for Class 2, GPCC and WFEDEI GPCC for Class 3. Surprisingly, precipitation datasets showing the highest model accuracy at basin outlets do not show the same high performance in internal locations, supporting the use of distributed modelling approach rather than lumped.

  • 28.
    Okoli, Kenechukwu
    et al.
    Uppsala Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Uppsala, Sweden.;Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Breinl, Korbinian
    Uppsala Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Uppsala, Sweden.;Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik.
    Botto, Anna
    Univ Padua, Dept Civil Environm & Architectural Engn, Padua, Italy..
    Volpi, Elena
    Univ Roma Tre, Dept Sci Ingn Civile, Rome, Italy..
    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
    Uppsala Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Uppsala, Sweden.;Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden..
    Model averaging versus model selection: estimating design floods with uncertain river flow data2018Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 63, nr 13-14, s. 1913-1926Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This study compares model averaging and model selection methods to estimate design floods, while accounting for the observation error that is typically associated with annual maximum flow data. Model selection refers to methods where a single distribution function is chosen based on prior knowledge or by means of selection criteria. Model averaging refers to methods where the results of multiple distribution functions are combined. Numerical experiments were carried out by generating synthetic data using the Wakeby distribution function as the parent distribution. For this study, comparisons were made in terms of relative error and root mean square error (RMSE) referring to the 1-in-100 year flood. The experiments show that model averaging and model selection methods lead to similar results, especially when short samples are drawn from a highly asymmetric parent. Also, taking an arithmetic average of all design flood estimates gives estimated variances similar to those obtained with more complex weighted model averaging.

  • 29. Palomino Cuya, D. G.
    et al.
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    , Institute for Water Education, Westvest 7, PO Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, Netherlands.
    Popescu, I.
    Alterach, J.
    Peviani, M.
    A GIS-based assessment of maximum potential hydropower production in La Plata basin under global changes2013Ingår i: Renewable energy, ISSN 0960-1481, E-ISSN 1879-0682, Vol. 50, s. 103-114Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Population growth, economic development, urbanization, changes in hydrological regimes and land use are the main drivers affecting allocation and exploitation of water resources. The pressure exerted by these global changes on the five countries -Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay- located in La Plata Basin over the last decades has raised the need for assessing trends in future electricity demand and energy production in the basin.The aim of this research is to assess whether (and when) shortage and vulnerabilities in terms of hydropower generation are to be expected in La Plata basin in the next decades. The methodology proposed has focused on two aspects to reach the objectives: 1) assessment of hydropower production and electricity demand in the basin over the last twenty years (1987-2008), in order to establish growing trends for the next thirty years; 2) computation of maximum potential hydropower using the newly developed Arc-GIS based tool VAPIDRO-ASTE. The assessment and calculation have been applied to La Plata River and its main tributaries: Paranaiba, Grande River, Tiete, Paranapanema, Iguaçu, Uruguay, Negro River, Paraguay and Paraná. The first outcomes of this research show that La Plata Basin has high hydropower potential. About 40% of the hydropower potential is already used to produce and supply energy. Out of the remaining 60% potential, about 25% could hardly be exploited because of environmental issues or low cost/benefit ratio. Thus, the estimated residual potential hydropower is about 35% of the maximum potential hydropower calculated.

  • 30. Popescu, I.
    et al.
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    UNESCO, IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, Netherlands.
    Perera, M. S. U.
    Peviani, M.
    Assessing residual hydropower potential of the la Plata Basin accounting for future user demands2012Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 16, nr 8, s. 2813-2823Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB), and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040). Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years), whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970-2000) and topographical characteristics of the area. Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy). The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  • 31. Popescu, Luigia
    et al.
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    UNESCO-IHE, Delft, Netherlands.
    Peviani, M.
    Effects of climate change over energy production in La Plata Basin2014Ingår i: International Journal of River Basin Management, ISSN 1571-5124, E-ISSN 1814-2060, Vol. 12, nr 4, s. 319-327Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The population growth and the economic development that the five Countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) located in La Plata Basin (LPB) have gone through over the last decades have risen the necessity to assess the current and future electricity demand and compare it to the energy production. In this region, the water resources of LPB are one of the most important sources of energy. In this context, the CLARIS EU (European Union) FP7 project has carried out an extensive research work which, in terms of investigating hydropower potential and vulnerability, has produced the following outcomes: assessment of current hydropower production and electricity demand; calculation of the maximum potential hydropower in order to establish whether and when shortage in terms of hydropower generation is to be expected; analysis of potential residual hydropower taking into account future user demands and analysis of hydropower production taking into account climate change scenarios, in order to identify potential vulnerabilities under variable input and/or needs for other sources of energy.

    This paper focuses on the outcomes of the climate change scenario analysis and its impacts on hydropower production in the basin. This has been investigated by (1) assessing the current hydropower production and electricity demand over the last 20 years (1991–2010), in order to establish growing trends in the short-term (2031–2040) and at the end of the century (2079–2098); (2) estimating maximum potential hydropower under present hydrological conditions; (3) analysis of potential vulnerability, by combining the first two research steps and (4) analysing the impact of climate change scenarios on hydrological variability and thus on hydropower production.

    The assessment of hydropower production and electricity demand determined that the current hydropower production represents about 73% of the electricity demand. Analysing the trends for the electricity produced by hydro-plants and the electricity demand, it is evident that the increment rate for the hydroelectricity production is lower than the increment rate of the electricity demand. Although, the maximum theoretically available energy at the basin level is about 683 GWh, the maximum feasible available energy (taking into account environmental flow requirements and financial constraints) will be of about 514 GWh per year.

    The climate change analysis shows an opposite trend at the sub-basin level, but overall, at the basin scale, the hydropower production is expected to increase because of changes in the hydrological variables.

  • 32. Toth, E.
    et al.
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    UNESCO-IHE, Institute for Water Education, Westvest, 7, Delft, Netherlands.
    Prediction of local scour depth at bridge piers under clear-water and live-bed conditions: Comparison of literature formulae and Artificial Neural networks2011Ingår i: Journal of Hydroinformatics, ISSN 1464-7141, E-ISSN 1465-1734, Vol. 13, nr 4, s. 812-824Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The scouring effect of the flowing water around bridge piers may undermine the stability of the structure, leading to extremely high direct and indirect costs and, in extreme cases, the loss of human lives. The use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models has been recently proposed in the literature for estimating the maximum scour depth around bridge piers: this study aims at further investigating the potentiality of the ANN approach and, in particular, at analysing the influence of the experimental setting (laboratory or field data) and of the sediment transport mode (clear water or live bed) on the prediction performances. A large database of both field and laboratory observations has been collected from the literature for predicting the maximum local scour depth as a function of a parsimonious set of variables characterizing the flow, the sediments and the pier. Neural networks with an increasing degree of specialization have been implemented - using different subsets of the calibration data in the training phase - and validated over an external validation dataset. The results confirm that the ANN scour depths' predictions outperform the estimates obtained by empirical formulae conventionally used in the literature and in the current engineering practice, and demonstrate the importance of taking into account the differences in the type of available data - laboratory or field data - and the sediment transport mode - clear water or live bed conditions.

  • 33. Viglione, A.
    et al.
    Di Baldassarre, G.
    Brandimarte, Luigia
    Department of Integrated Water Systems and Governance, UNESCO-IHE, Delft, Netherlands.
    Kuil, L.
    Carr, G.
    Salinas, J. L.
    Scolobig, A.
    Blöschl, G.
    Insights from socio-hydrology modelling on dealing with flood risk - Roles of collective memory, risk-taking attitude and trust2014Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 518, nr A, s. 71-82Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The risk coping culture of a community plays a major role in the development of urban floodplains. In this paper we analyse, in a conceptual way, the interplay of community risk coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. We particularly focus on three aspects: (i) collective memory, i.e., the capacity of the community to keep risk awareness high; (ii) risk-taking attitude, i.e., the amount of risk the community is collectively willing to be exposed to; and (iii) trust of the community in risk reduction measures. To this end, we use a dynamic model that represents the feedback between the hydrological and social system components. Model results indicate that, on the one hand, by under perceiving the risk of flooding (because of short collective memory and too much trust in flood protection structures) in combination with a high risk-taking attitude, community development is severely limited because of high damages caused by flooding. On the other hand, overestimation of risk (long memory and lack of trust in flood protection structures) leads to lost economic opportunities and recession. There are many scenarios of favourable development resulting from a trade-off between collective memory and trust in risk reduction measures combined with a low to moderate risk-taking attitude. Interestingly, the model gives rise to situations in which the development of the community in the floodplain is path dependent, i.e., the history of flooding may lead to community growth or recession.

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