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  • 1.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport planning, economics and engineering. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. Technical University of Denmark, Denmark .
    Response time patterns in a stated choice experiment2015In: Journal of Choice Modelling, ISSN 1755-5345, E-ISSN 1755-5345, Vol. 14, p. 48-58Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies how response times vary between unlabelled binary choice occasions in a stated choice (SC) experiment, with alternatives differing with respect to in-vehicle travel time and travel cost. The pattern of response times is interpreted as an indicator of the cognitive processes employed by the respondents when making their choices. We find clear signs of reference-dependence in response times in the form of a strong gain-loss asymmetry. Moreover, different patterns of response times for travel time and travel cost indicate that these attributes are processed in different ways by respondents. This may be of particular relevance for choice experiments in the transportation field, where the travel time attribute is central.

  • 2.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Catching the tail: Empirical Identification of Value of time Distribution2011In: Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 2011, Vol. 46, no 2Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 3.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Catching the tail: Empirical identification of the distribution of the value of travel time2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 46, no 2, p. 378-391Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 4.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Identifying the Value of Time distribution - Evidence from the Swedish Value of Time Study 20082009In: Proceedings of International Conference of the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research (IATBR), 2009, Vol. 46, no 2Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 5.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    On the income elasticity of the value of travel time2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 2, p. 368-377Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Transport infrastructure is long-term and in appraisal it is necessary to value travel timesavings for future years. This requires knowing how the value of time (VTT) will develop over time as incomes grow. This paper investigates if the cross-sectional incomeelasticity of the VTT is equal to inter-temporal income elasticity. The study is based ontwo identical stated choice experiments conducted with a 13. year interval. Results indicate that the relationship between income and the VTT in the cross-section has remained unchanged over time. As a consequence, the inter-temporal income elasticityof the VTT can be predicted based on cross-sectional income elasticity. However, theincome elasticity of the VTT is not a constant but increases with income. For this reason, the average income elasticity of the VTT in the cross-sections has increased between the two survey years and can be expected to increase further over time. 

  • 6. De Borger, Bruno
    et al.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. Danish Tech Univ, Denmark.
    Information provision by regulated public transport companies2012In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 46, no 4, p. 492-510Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We study the interaction between pricing, frequency of service and information provision by public transport firms offering scheduled services, and we do so under various regulatory regimes. The model assumes that users can come to the bus stop or rail station at random or they can plan their trips; the fraction of users who plan their trips is endogenous and depends on the frequency of service and on the quality of information provided. Four institutional regimes are considered, reflecting various degrees of government regulation. A numerical example illustrates the theoretical results. Findings include the following. First, fare regulation induces the firm to provide less frequency and less information than is socially optimal. Second, if information and frequency did not affect the number of planning users a higher fare always induces the firm to raise both frequency and the quality of information. With endogenous planning, however, this need not be the case, as the effect of higher fares strongly depends on how frequency and information quality affect the number of planners. Third, a profit-maximizing firm offers more information than a fare-regulated firm. Fourth, if the agency regulates both the fare and the quality of information then more stringent information requirements induce the firm to reduce frequency; this strongly limits the welfare improvement of information regulation. Finally, of all institutional structures considered, socially optimal fares, frequency and quality of information stimulate passengers least to plan their trips, because the high frequency offered reduces the benefits of trip planning.

  • 7.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Cost overruns and demand shortfalls - Deception or selection?2013In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 57, p. 105-113Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit-cost ratios remain a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless.

  • 8.
    Engelson, Leonid
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Additive measures of travel time variability2011In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 45, no 10, p. 1560-1571Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper derives a measure of travel time variability for travellers equipped with scheduling preferences defined in terms of time-varying utility rates, and who choose departure time optimally. The corresponding value of travel time variability is a constant that depends only on preference parameters. The measure is unique in being additive with respect to independent parts of a trip. It has the variance of travel time as a special case. Extension is provided to the case of travellers who use a scheduled service with fixed headway.

  • 9.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. Technical University of Denmark, Denmark .
    Congestion in the bathtub2015In: Economics of Transportation, ISSN 2212-0122, E-ISSN 2212-0130, Vol. 4, no 4, p. 241-255Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a model of urban traffic congestion that allows for hypercongestion. Hypercongestion has fundamental importance for the costs of congestion and the effect of policies such as road pricing, transit provision and traffic management, treated in the paper. In the simplest version of the model, the unregulated Nash equilibrium is also the social optimum among a wide range of potential outcomes and any reasonable road pricing scheme will be welfare decreasing. Large welfare gains can be achieved through road pricing when there is hypercongestion and travelers are heterogeneous.

  • 10.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. Tech Univ Denmark, Denmark.
    How a fast lane may replace a congestion tollle2011In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 45, no 6, p. 845-851Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper considers a congested bottleneck. A fast lane reserves a more than proportional share of capacity to a designated group of travelers. Travelers are otherwise identical and other travelers can use the reserved capacity when it would otherwise be idle. The paper shows that such a fast lane is always Pareto improving under Nash equilibrium in arrival times at the bottleneck and inelastic demand. It can replicate the arrival schedule and queueing outcomes of a toll that optimally charges a constant toll during part of the demand peak. Within some bounds, the fast lane scheme is still welfare improving when demand is elastic.

  • 11.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Nonparametric approaches to describing heterogeneity2014In: Handbook of Choice Modelling, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2014, p. 257-267Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 12.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. Technical University of Denmark, Denmark.
    Borjesson, Maria
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Manipulating a stated choice experiment2015In: Journal of Choice Modelling, ISSN 1755-5345, E-ISSN 1755-5345, Vol. 16, p. 43-49Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper considers the design of a stated choice experiment intended to measure the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) between cost and an attribute such as time using a conventional logit model. Focusing the experimental design on some target MRS will bias estimates towards that value. The paper shows why this happens. The resulting estimated MRS can then be manipulated by adapting the target MRS in the experimental design.

  • 13.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. Tech Univ Denmark, Denmark.
    de Palma, Andre
    Congestion in a city with a central bottleneck2012In: Journal of Urban Economics, ISSN 0094-1190, E-ISSN 1095-9068, Vol. 71, no 3, p. 269-277Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We consider dynamic congestion in an urban setting where trip origins are spatially distributed. All travelers must pass through a downtown bottleneck in order to reach their destination in the CBD. Each traveler chooses departure time to maximize general concave scheduling utility. We find that, at equilibrium, travelers sort according to their distance to the destination; the queue is always unimodal regardless of the spatial distribution of trip origins. We construct a welfare maximizing tolling regime, which eliminates congestion. All travelers located beyond a critical distance from the CBD gain from tolling, even when toll revenues are not redistributed, while nearby travelers lose. We discuss our results in the context of acceptability of tolling policies.

  • 14.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    de Palma, Andre
    The dynamics of urban traffic congestion and the price of parking2013In: Journal of Public Economics, ISSN 0047-2727, E-ISSN 1879-2316, Vol. 105, p. 106-115Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We consider commuting in a congested urban area. While an efficient time-varying toll may eliminate queuing, a toll may not be politically feasible. We study the benefit of a substitute: a parking fee at the workplace. An optimal time-varying parking fee is charged at zero rate when there is queuing and eliminates queuing when the rate is non-zero. Within certain limits, inability to charge some drivers for parking does not reduce the potential welfare gain. Drivers who cannot be charged travel when there is queuing. In some cases, interaction between morning and evening commutes can be exploited to remove queuing completely.

  • 15.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Engelson, Leonid
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Franklin, Joel P.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Commuting for meetings2014In: Journal of Urban Economics, ISSN 0094-1190, E-ISSN 1095-9068, Vol. 81, p. 104-113Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Urban congestion causes travel times to exhibit considerable variability, which leads to coordination problems when people have to meet. We analyze a game for the timing of a meeting between two players who must each complete a trip of random duration to reach the meeting, which does not begin until both are present. Players prefer to depart later and also to arrive sooner, provided they do not have to wait for the other player. We find a unique Nash equilibrium, and a continuum of Pareto optima that are strictly better than the Nash equilibrium for both players. Pareto optima may be implemented as Nash equilibria by penalty or compensation schemes.

  • 16.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    et al.
    Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Kgs Lyngby, Denmark .
    Frejinger, E.
    Karlström, Anders
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    A link based network route choice model with unrestricted choice set2013In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 56, p. 70-80Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper considers the path choice problem, formulating and discussing an econometric random utility model for the choice of path in a network with no restriction on the choice set. Starting from a dynamic specification of link choices we show that it is equivalent to a static model of the multinomial logit form but with infinitely many alternatives. The model can be consistently estimated and used for prediction in a computationally efficient way. Similarly to the path size logit model, we propose an attribute called link size that corrects utilities of overlapping paths but that is link additive. The model is applied to data recording path choices in a network with more than 3000 nodes and 7000 links.

  • 17.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Frejinger, Emma
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Karlström, Anders
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    A dynamic discrete choice approach for consistent route choice model estimation2011In: Proceedings of the Swiss Transport Research Conference, 2011Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We propose a dynamic discrete choice approach for consistently estimating route choice model parameters based on path observations using maximum likelihood. The approach is computationally efficient and does not require choice set sampling.

  • 18.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Frejinger, Emma
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Karlström, Anders
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Dynamically choosing routes: A dynamic discrete choice model using Krylov subspace methods and LU decomposition2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 19.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Frejinger, Emma
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301).
    Karlström, Anders
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301).
    Route choice modeling without route choice2009In: Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 2009Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Route choice modeling is complex. The number of alternative paths is often very large, while the paths are likely to share unobserved attributes which induces correlation. When modelling this, we face a trade-off between using models that are simple enough to handle many alternative paths while at the same time being able to handle correlation. There is a substantial ongoing research effort seeking to resolve this dilemma, so far with limited success. For these reasons the multinomial logit model (path size logit and c-logit proposed by Ben-Akiva and Bierliare, 1999, and Cascetta et. al., 1996, respectively) is widely used in spite of its known limitations.

    The main purpose of this paper is to present and test a dynamic discrete choice approach for the estimation of the parameters of a route choice model. In the dynamic modeling approach, the individual is seen as taking sequential decisions on which link to choose, and the choices are made at the nodes in the network. The obvious advantage with this approach is that the choice set at every stage is quite small and well defined, while a correlation structure is naturally imposed among different paths, even if each sequential decision follows a multinomial logit model. From an econometric point of view, the link choice model can be a lot simper to deal with.

    The utility maximising choice of path may be broken down into a sequence of link choices, where at each stage the individual considers the utility associated with downstream link choices accumulated into a value function. However, if we were to compute the value function associated with the available link choices at every stage, the complexity of the problem would be at least the same as the original path choice problem. An exact solution method to calculate the value function runs into the curse of dimensionality when solving a dynamic programming problem. Therefore, the computational burden may be prohibitive for large networks if one tries to solve the dynamic programming problem by brute force. This is probably why the sequential approach is not used for estimating route choice models in spite of having been around for many years (e.g., Dial, 1971).

    However, it is not strictly necessary to solve the dynamic programming problem in order to estimate the parameters of the route choice model consistently. It is sufficient to find a suitable approximation to the value function. So the objective of this paper is to test whether it is possible to generate good predictors for the value function such that the parameters of the route choice model may be estimated on link choices rather than path choices. If this turns out to be possible, then both the econometric and computational complexity of route choice modelling may be dramatically reduced.

    The paper therefore discusses the conditions under which the route choice model can be consistently estimated. We then test the approach using simulated data for a real network (Borlänge, Sweden), where route choice observations are generated using the exact model, i.e. solving the dynamic programming problem. This allows us to compare the exact value functions with the approximations. We show how the approximation can be defined using proxy variables such as direction and distance to destination. The paper concludes with a discussion on the use of the model for prediction (policy analysis) and related issues.

  • 20.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fukuda, D.
    Valuing travel time variability: Characteristics of the travel time distribution on an urban road2012In: Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, ISSN 0968-090X, E-ISSN 1879-2359, Vol. 24, p. 83-101Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper provides a detailed empirical investigation of the distribution of travel times on an urban road for valuation of travel time variability. Our investigation is premised on the use of a theoretical model with a number of desirable properties. The definition of the value of travel time variability depends on certain properties of the distribution of random travel times that require empirical verification. Applying a range of nonparametric statistical techniques to data giving minute-by-minute travel times for a congested urban road over a period of five months, we show that the standardized travel time is roughly independent of the time of day as required by the theory. Except for the extreme right tail, a stable distribution seems to fit the data well. The travel time distributions on consecutive links seem to share a common stability parameter such that the travel time distribution for a sequence of links is also a stable distribution. The parameters of the travel time distribution for a sequence of links can then be derived analytically from the link level distributions.

  • 21.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Hjorth, Katrine
    Lyk-Jensen, Stephanie Vincent
    Between-mode-differences in the value of travel time: Self-selection or strategic behaviour?2010In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, ISSN 1361-9209, E-ISSN 1879-2340, Vol. 15, no 7, p. 370-381Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Using stated preference survey data, we measure the value of travel time for several transport modes. We find, like many before us, that the value of travel time varies across modes in the opposite direction of what would be the consequence of differences in comfort. We examine three candidate causes for the observed differences: Comfort effects, self-selection and strategic behaviour of respondents. Using experiments with both the current and an alternative mode we find that the differences in the value of travel time are consistent with self-selection and comfort effects. Moreover, respondents having bus as the current or the alternative mode seem not to value comfort differently across modes. Strategic behaviour seems to play no role. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 22.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Karlström, Anders
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301).
    The value of reliability2010In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 44, no 1, p. 38-49Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We derive the value of reliability in the scheduling of an activity of random duration, such as travel under congested conditions. Using a simple formulation of scheduling utility, we show that the maximal expected utility is linear in the mean and standard deviation of trip duration, regardless of the form of the standardised distribution of trip durations. This insight provides a unification of the scheduling model and models that include the standard deviation of trip duration directly as an argument in the cost or utility function. The results generalise approximately to the case where the mean and standard deviation of trip duration depend on the starting time. An empirical illustration is provided.

  • 23.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Lindberg, Per Olov
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Mattsson, Lars-Göran
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Weibull, Jörgen
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.).
    Invariance of the distribution of the maximumManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Many models in economics involve probabilistic choices where each decision-maker selects the best alternative from a finite set. Viewing the value of each alternative as a random variable, the analyst is then interested in the choice probabilities, that is, the probability for an alternative to give the maximum value. Much analytical power can be gained, both for positive and normative analysis, if the maximum value is statistically independent of which alternative obtains the highest value. This note synthesizes and generalizes previous results on this invariance property. We provide characterizations of this property within a wide class of distributions that comprises the McFadden GEV class, show implications in several directions, and establish connections with copulas. We illustrate the usefulness of the invariance property by way of a few examples.

  • 24. Hjorth, Katrine
    et al.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Engelson, Leonid
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Estimating exponential scheduling preferences2015In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 81, no 1, p. 230-251Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Different assumptions about travelers' scheduling preferences yield different measures of the cost of travel time variability. Only few forms of scheduling preferences provide non-trivial measures which are additive over links in transport networks where link travel times are arbitrarily distributed independent random variables: Assuming smooth preferences, this holds only for specifications with a constant marginal utility of time at the origin and an exponential or affine marginal utility of time at the destination. We apply a generalized version of this model to stated preference data of car drivers' route and mode choice under uncertain travel times. Our analysis exposes some important methodological issues related to complex non-linear scheduling models: One issue is identifying the point in time where the marginal utility of being at the destination becomes larger than the marginal utility of being at the origin. Another issue is that models with the exponential marginal utility formulation suffer from empirical identification problems. Though our results are not decisive, they partly support the constant-affine specification, in which the value of travel time variability is proportional to the variance of travel time.

  • 25. Hjorth, Katrine
    et al.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Loss Aversion and Individual Characteristics2011In: Environmental and Resource Economics, ISSN 0924-6460, E-ISSN 1573-1502, Vol. 49, no 4, p. 573-596Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many studies have shown that loss aversion affects the valuation of non-market goods. Using stated choice data, this paper presents an empirical investigation of how individual-level loss aversion varies with observable personal characteristics and with the choice context. We investigate loss aversion with respect to travel time and money, and find significant loss aversion in both dimensions. The degree of loss aversion in the time dimension is larger than in the money dimension, and depends on age and education. Subjects tend to be more loss averse when the reference is well established.

  • 26. Hjorth, Katrine
    et al.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. Danish Tech Univ, Denmark).
    Using prospect theory to investigate the low marginal value of travel time for small time changes2012In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 46, no 8, p. 917-932Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A common finding in stated preference studies that measure the value of travel time (VTT) is that the measured VTT increases with the size of the time change considered, in conflict with standard neoclassical economic theory. We present a new test of a possible explanation for the phenomenon that builds on the diminishing or constant sensitivity of the value functions in prospect theory. We use stated preference data with trade-offs between travel time and money that provide separate identification of the degrees of diminishing sensitivity for time and money gains and losses. This enables us to test and potentially falsify the prospect theory explanation. We conclude that prospect theory remains a potential explanation of the phenomenon.

  • 27.
    Karlström, Anders
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Consistent estimation of route choice models with link specific random costs2011In: Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 2011Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 28.
    Karlström, Anders
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Path choice models on static graphs with random edge costs2011Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 29.
    Karlström, Anders
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Path choice models on static graphs with random edge costs2010Report (Other academic)
  • 30.
    Karlström, Anders
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Frejinger, Emma
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    A dynamic discrete choice approach for consistent route choice model estimation2009Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 31. Mai, T.
    et al.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. Technical University of Denmark.
    Frejinger, E.
    A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis2015In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, ISSN 0191-2615, E-ISSN 1879-2367, Vol. 75, p. 100-112Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link choices and the model does not require any sampling of choice sets. Furthermore, the model can be consistently estimated and efficiently used for prediction.A key challenge lies in the computation of the value functions, i.e. the expected maximum utility from any position in the network to a destination. The value functions are the solution to a system of non-linear equations. We propose an iterative method with dynamic accuracy that allows to efficiently solve these systems.We report estimation results and a cross-validation study for a real network. The results show that the NRL model yields sensible parameter estimates and the fit is significantly better than the RL model. Moreover, the NRL model outperforms the RL model in terms of prediction.

  • 32. Ranjan, Abhishek
    et al.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Emergence of macroscopic fundamental diagram2016Conference paper (Refereed)
1 - 32 of 32
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