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  • 1.
    Blomgren, Henrik
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Industrial Economics and Management (Dept.), Industrial marketing. KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Industrial Economics and Management (Dept.), Business Development and Entrepreneurship.
    Jonsson, Peder
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Industrial Economics and Management (Dept.).
    Lagergren, Fredrik
    KTH.
    Getting back to scenario planning: Strategic action in the future of Energy Europe2011Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Scenario planning is a commonly used method in order to analyse complex aspects of the energy system. Historically it has been an important tool to prepare for long-term action. Today however, due to the deregulated market, it could be assumed that scenario analysis is abandoned. Maybe more (the only) attention is on short-term action.This paper presents a review over the time period of 1970 to 2010 on scenario-planning articles. The overall purpose is to evaluate how historical scenario studies stand in a situation of today’s deregulated energy markets.Articles surveyed are published in well-respected and internationally well-spread peer-reviewed journals. Focus is put on 1, when, and by whom, articles have been published 2, for what reasons projects have been taken and with what method 3, what aspect that have been in focus. The articles are also analysed in terms of possible use in today’s deregulated situation.Three conclusions are drawn. Firstly, the main use of scenario planning still tends to be a support to political processes. Secondly, three major issues and drivers for change dominate when different aspects of the energy system are analysed in scenario projects: climate change, security in terms of demand/supply and economic development. Thirdly, it is concluded that scenario planning still tend to be of value when analysing the future of the deregulated energy sector in Europe.However, in order to be fully utilized for the future scenario methodology must take into account that energy industry actors are not being controlled by politics as they where during the regulated period.

  • 2.
    Blomgren, Henrik
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Industrial Economics and Management (Dept.), Industrial marketing. KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Industrial Economics and Management (Dept.), Business Development and Entrepreneurship.
    Lagergren, Fredrik
    KTH.
    Wheeling & Dealing: Scenarios for understanding the European energy future2010Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The deregulation of energy industries in combination with internationalization and a changing Europe requires strategic efforts to be undertaken in a different way than earlier. Policy activitites do not control this sector to the same extent as before – corporate strategies and activities have also become important to understand. During 2002 the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences engaged more than one hundred experts from industry, government and academia to analyze energy within the project “Energy Foresight – Sweden in Europe”. One part of the project, the structure foresight panel, sketched out four different scenarios that each describes a possible European setting for the energy industries - meaning: corporate action was in the center. In this article the aim is to evaluate the result from that scenario project in hindsight and to compare it with other similar scenario projects in this field.

  • 3.
    Flament, Maxime
    et al.
    Chalmers University of Technology.
    Gessler, Fredrik
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Industrial Economics and Management.
    Lagergren, Fredrik
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Industrial Economics and Management.
    Queseth, Olav
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Signals, Sensors and Systems.
    Stridh, Rickard
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Signals, Sensors and Systems.
    Unbehaun, Matthias
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Signals, Sensors and Systems.
    Wu, Jiang
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Teleinformatics.
    Zander, Jens
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Signals, Sensors and Systems.
    An Approach to Fourth Generation Wireless Infrastructures - Scenarios and Key Research Issues1999In: Vehicular Technology Conference, 1999 IEEE 49th, IEEE , 1999, p. 1742-1746Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Studying the feasibility and viability of various future infrastructure architectures and potential road-maps of their deployment is the focus of the 4th Generation Wireless Infrastructures (4GW) project within the strategic Personal Computing and Communication (PCC) program (Molin 1998). In attempting to realize the PCC vision “mobile multimedia to all at today's prices for fixed telephony”, a difficult problem arises. In contrast to the process of solving engineering and business problems in current or imminent wireless systems, where system concepts, requirements and markets are reasonably well known, very little is known about these things over a 10 year horizon. The approach used in the project to tackle this problem, is to use various scenario techniques. Plausible scenarios which describe the telecommunication scene in 2010 and which are used to determine potential technological and other bottlenecks in order to find key areas for research in this field are a very important element in these studies. Some of these scenarios are presented in this paper, together with some implications regarding bottlenecks and key research issues. The results are presented in terms of working assumptions (WAs) used with the project. The WAs are also proposed to provide a framework for interrelating different research activities within PCC.

  • 4.
    Flament, Maxime
    et al.
    Chalmers University of Technology.
    Gessler, Fredrik
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Industrial Economics and Management.
    Lagergren, Fredrik
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Industrial Economics and Management.
    Queseth, Olav
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Signals, Sensors and Systems.
    Stridh, Rickard
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Signals, Sensors and Systems.
    Unbehaun, Matthias
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Signals, Sensors and Systems.
    Wu, Jiang
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Teleinformatics.
    Zander, Jens
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Signals, Sensors and Systems.
    Key Research Issues in 4th Generation Wireless Infrastructures1998Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The world of communication is now developing faster than ever. Telecommunication infrastructure deployment in contrast is a slow and costly process demanding along-range strategic perspective in decision making. As aconsequence, R&D efforts are concerned with problems on a time horizon of 10 years or more. Studying the feasibility and viability of various future infrastructure architectures and potential road-maps of their deployment is the focus for the 4th Generation WirelessInfrastructures project within PCC. Determining technological and other bottlenecks to find key areas forr esearch in this area is a very important element in these studies.The methods used for this purpose are various scenario techniques. Plausible scenarios, describing the telecommunication scene in 2010, have been designed based on a number of global trends in technology,economy and politics. The scenario trends have also been verified by using a Delphi survey among leading industrials and scientists in Sweden. Based on these trends, three vivid scenarios are built which implicitly describe the different trends that have been created, for instance, the Big Brother, the Anything Goes, and thePocket Computing. At the end of the paper, the implications of the scenarios to the infrastructure research areas are discussed. In particular, the working assumptions and key research problems in each PCC/4GW work package are revisited and prioritized according to the scenarios. The scenarios are also proposed to provide a framework for inter-relating different research activities within PCC.

  • 5.
    Johansson, Petter
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Industrial Economics and Management (Dept.), Entrepreneurship and innovation.
    Lagergren, Fredrik
    KTH.
    Göran, Reitberger
    Critical factors in different phases of the Swedish heat pump market development2013In: The Industrial, 2013Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Since the heat pump was invented in the mid 19th century it has been dependent on technological development of principally five main mechanical components as well as on economic, social and political factors to penetrate the market. It can therefore be useful to describe the heat pump as a sociotechnical system consisting of different components, or sub-systems, to understand how all components must align to achieve market acceptance. While technological and social conditions affecting the heat pump demand are currently in the process of aligning in several European emerging and growing markets, the Swedish heat pump market is slowing down due to signs of market saturation.

    Sweden has been a pioneering nation in the field of heat pumps and the heat pump has had a larger market impact in Sweden than anywhere else. Since the birth of the market in the 1970s it has gone through several phases: Growth from 1979, a market collapse in the mid 1980s, a strong growth once more from 1995 to 2006, and a recent decline in sales. This article studies these shifts in market demand by answering the research question: What critical factors have affected the heat pump market in Sweden during different phases of its development? These critical factors have been mapped out through interviews with researchers and industry representatives together with an extensive literature review and analysis of secondary available data such as statistical reviews and research program records.

    This article arguments that the market demand has correlated to the alignment of factors in the heat pump sociotechnical system, and that too much focus has previously been on subsidies when trying to explain the causes behind the heat pump market development in Sweden. Subsidies has only been one factor out of many. Understanding the market development of energy technologies such as heat pumps from a sociotechnical perspective is useful knowledge for practitioners and policy makers engaged in emerging energy markets as well as researchers in the field. 

  • 6.
    Lagergren, Fredrik
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Industrial Economics and Management.
    Rethinking energy systems2004Doctoral thesis, monograph (Other scientific)
  • 7.
    Lagergren, Fredrik
    et al.
    KTH.
    Kaulio, Matti
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Industrial Economics and Management (Dept.), Industrial Work Science (closed 20130101).
    Infra-Services: A Definition and Research Agenda2011Conference paper (Other academic)
1 - 7 of 7
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