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  • 1. Grune-Yanoff, Till
    et al.
    Rosencrantz, Holger
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy.
    Beneficial safety decreases2011In: Theory and Decision, ISSN 0040-5833, E-ISSN 1573-7187, Vol. 70, no 2, p. 195-213Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We construct a model of rational choice under risk with biased risk judgement. On its basis, we argue that sometimes, a regulator aiming at maximising social welfare should affect the environment in such a way that it becomes 'less safe' in common perception. More specifically, we introduce a bias into each agent's choice of optimal risk levels: consequently, in certain environments, agents choose a behaviour that realises higher risks than intended. Individuals incur a welfare loss through this bias. We show that by deteriorating the environment, the regulator can motivate individuals to choose behaviour that is less biased, and hence realises risk levels closer to what individuals intended. We formally investigate the conditions under which such a Beneficial Safety Decrease-i.e. a deteriorating intervention that has a positive welfare effect-exists. Finally, we discuss three applications of our model.

  • 2.
    Rosencrantz, Holger
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy.
    Combining policy goals and welfare economics: the case of Swedish transportManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 3.
    Rosencrantz, Holger
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy.
    Deontic paradoxes: sources and solutionManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 4.
    Rosencrantz, Holger
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy and History of Technology.
    Goal-setting and goal-achieving in transport policy2006Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other scientific)
    Abstract [en]

    The thesis aims at developing new, alternative approaches and methods based on suggestions and ideas originating from moral philosophy and philosophical decision theory. More precisely, the thesis aims at investigating the rationality of transport policy decisions, including goal-setting and performance evaluation.

    Paper I discusses rationality in road safety policy. Problematic features are identified and discussed. The paper argues that the Swedish road safety goal is rational, since it is action-guiding and achievement-inducing. This follows by observing that the goal satisfies the criteria of precision, evaluability, approachability, and motivity. The paper states that previous accusations of irrationality have been unnecessarily imprecise, since no reference is made to independently developed criteria of rational goal-setting.

    Paper II discusses the Swedish transport policy goals, and the role of social welfare in rational policy decisions. Goals often come into conflict and trade-offs must be rationally and consistently managed. Policy decisions are outcomes of political processes. In the case of policy goals and decisions, the agent is society. This introduces the problematic concept of social welfare, which itself is an ambiguous goal with many meanings. Whether a decision is rational or not depends on whose perspective one takes on – that of society as a whole or that of the actual decision makers.

    Paper III aims at investigating six different procedures for resolving goal conflicts: weighted average, lexicographic preference, conditional lexicographic preference, absolute restriction, generalised prioritarianism, and partial comparability. Criteria for selection, according to the respective procedures, are formulated and summarised in a table. The six procedures are contrasted with respect to their tendency to rule out possible sets of alternatives as being not choiceworthy.

  • 5.
    Rosencrantz, Holger
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy.
    Goal-Setting and the Logic of Transport Policy Decisions2009Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The thesis aims at developing approaches to transport policy decisions, based on suggestions and ideas originating from moral philosophy and philosophical decision theory.Paper I analyzes the Swedish transport policy goals, and the problem of combining policygoals with welfare economics. A problem of circularity arises as the Swedish transport policygoals are conflicting, and hence must be subject to trade-offs, while several of the goals themselves entail statements on how to prioritize or restrain goals in case of conflict.Paper II analyzes rationality in road safety policy. Problematic features are identified and discussed. The paper argues that the Swedish road safety goal is rational, since it is actionguiding and achievement-inducing.Paper III includes a model of rational choice under risk with biased risk perception. Under certain plausible conditions, a regulator should raise the population’s risk exposure. By deteriorating the environment the regulator can motivate drivers to choose behaviour that is less biased.Paper IV provides a formal representation of goal systems. The focus is on three properties:consistency, conflict, and coherence. It is argued that consistency is adequately regarded as a property relative to the decision situation or, more specifically, the set of alternatives that the agent faces. Conflict is adequately regarded as a relation over subsets of a given goal systemand should likewise be regarded as relative to the set of alternative that the agent faces.Coherence is given a probabilistic interpretation, based on a support relation over subsets of goal systems.Paper V investigates problems associated with standard deontic logic. A deontic predicate is derived, which avoids some of the major paradoxes in the area. In particular, paradoxes occurring when one obligation is derived by logical necessity from another obligation are dealt with.

  • 6.
    Rosencrantz, Holger
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy and History of Technology.
    Performance in complex goal systems - rational trade-offs without precise weightsManuscript (Other academic)
  • 7.
    Rosencrantz, Holger
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy.
    Properties of goal systems: consistency, conflict, and coherence2008In: Studia Logica: An International Journal for Symbolic Logic, ISSN 0039-3215, E-ISSN 1572-8730, Vol. 89, no 1, p. 37-58Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper provides a formal representation of goal systems. The focus is on three properties: consistency, conflict, and coherence. An aim is to attain conceptual clarity of these properties. It is argued that consistency is adequately regarded as a property relative to the decision situation or, more specifically, the set of alternatives that the agent faces. Moreover, as a condition of rationality, consistency is stronger than some writers have claimed. Conflict is adequately regarded as a relation over subsets of a given goal system and should likewise be regarded as relative to the set of alternatives that the agent faces. Coherence is given a probabilistic interpretation, based on a support relation over subsets of goal systems.

  • 8.
    Rosencrantz, Holger
    Philosophy and History, KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy and History of Technology, Philosophy.
    Rational policy goals: road safety in Scandinavia2006In: Urban Transport XII: Urban Transport and the Environment in the 21st Century / [ed] Brebbia, CA; Dolezel, V, 2006, Vol. 89, p. 151-157Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The road safety policy goal in Sweden, as well as the corresponding goals in Denmark and Norway, states that it is unacceptable that anyone is killed or seriously injured as a consequence of road traffic. Although these goals are well-meant, it could plausibly be asked whether it is rational to have pose such an unrealistic or utopian goals like that of reducing road traffic fatalities and serious injuries to zero. This paper discusses rationality of goals in general, and presents specific criteria for rationality assessment. Several problems with the Swedish road safety policy goal are identified, but it is concluded that it is action-guiding and hence rational.

  • 9.
    Rosencrantz, Holger
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy and History of Technology.
    Swedish transport policy goals - between ratonality and social welfareManuscript (Other academic)
  • 10.
    Rosencrantz, Holger
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy and History of Technology.
    Edvardsson, Karin
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy and History of Technology.
    Hansson, Sven Ove
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), History of Science and Technology.
    Vision Zero - Is it irrational?2007In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 559-567Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Vision Zero, the Swedish road safety policy goal, states that in the long run, no person should be killed or seriously injured as a consequence of road traffic. Since its adoption in 1997, the goal has been seriously criticised. In 2007, performance of the first interim target will be evaluated and a new interim target will be set. In this paper, we summarise the experiences from working with the goal and analyse the criticism that has been put forward against it. The most common criticism is that Vision Zero is an irrational goal. In order to evaluate this criticism, we compare Vision Zero with an independently developed list of adequacy criteria for rational goal-setting. We conclude that according to these criteria, Vision Zero is not irrational.

  • 11.
    Rosencrantz, Holger
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Philosophy.
    Grüne-Yanoff, Til
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE).
    Beneficial risk increasesManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
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