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  • 1.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Even more possibilities to combine demand models2011Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 2.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    New models for high speed rail forecasting2011Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 3.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    What is the monetary value of security?2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 4.
    Algers, Staffan
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Beser Hugosson, Muriel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Modelling choice of flight and booking class - a study using Stated Preference and Revealed Preference data2001In: International Journal of Services Technology and Management, Vol. 2, no 1/2Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 5.
    Algers, Staffan
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301).
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Mattsson, Lars-Göran
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301).
    Is it time to use activity-based urban transport models? A discussion of planning needs and modelling possibilities2005In: The annals of regional science, ISSN 0570-1864, E-ISSN 1432-0592, Vol. 39, no 4, p. 767-789Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    For some decades now, transport researchers have put considerable efforts into developing what is called activity-based approaches for modelling urban travel demand. The basic idea is that travel demand is derived from people's desires to take part in different activities. In particular, the interrelationships among different activities with respect to temporal and spatial constraints are in focus. It means that such models treat the activities and the travelling of the households with respect to where and when the activities can be carried out and how they may be scheduled, given characteristics of the households and potential opportunities, the transport networks and various institutional constraints. We discuss what demands we see on future travel demand models, with a focus on urban analysis. This discussion is somewhat biased towards what role activity-based models could play in meeting these demands. We then review in some detail three prominent and distinctly different representatives of operational activity-based models to give an indication of what new modelling possibilities they offer. Theoretical appeal, empirical validity, usefulness for planning, need for data and easiness of implementation are discussed. In the final section we draw some conclusions about the prospects of these models and of their descendants.

  • 6.
    Algers, Staffan
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Mattsson, Lars-Göran
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Rydergren, Clas
    Östlund, Bo
    Sampers: erfarenheter och utvecklingsmöjligheter på kort och lång sikt2009Report (Other academic)
  • 7.
    Algers, Staffan
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Petz, M.
    Embedded parks in Quiet Zones2012In: 41st International Congress and Exposition on Noise Control Engineering 2012, INTER-NOISE 2012: Volume 4, 2012, 2012, p. 3024-3035Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    One of the targets of the European project "CityHush Acoustically Green Road Vehicles and City Areas" under the 7th Framework Program is to support city administrations to eliminate harmful effects of noise exposure and decrease levels of transport noise, especially in urban areas. A particular attention has been paid to investigating boundary conditions and maximum noise gains especially for parks embedded in Q-zones where only quiet low emission vehicles are tolerated. Other vehicles are banned or subject to a noise fee for entering the quiet zone. Within the CityHush project existing noise levels in different parks of European cities were determined and the influence of local parameters on the noise situation, such as size of a Qzone, was investigated. Moreover a variation of noise fees and traffic restrictions as well as different percentages of low noise vehicle ownerships inside the Q-zone and outside (countrywide) was evaluated. Based on different noise and annoyance criteria possibilities and limits to reduce noise in the city environment will be shown, based on studies carried out for 5 European cities.

  • 8.
    Algers, Staffan
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301).
    Sundbergh, P.
    Byström, C.
    Valuation of road traffic noise profiles2009In: 38th International Congress and Exposition on Noise Control Engineering 2009, INTER-NOISE 2009, 2009, p. 2161-2168Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Swedish noise values are today based on a study concerning hedonic price values. The valuation of the average noise levels assumes that there is no difference between different noise profiles, i.e. how the noise level varies throughout the day. In order to be able to take appropriate measures towards noise problems, it is important to know to what extent the noise profile matters. The project aims at researching how the noise value depends on the road traffic noise profile. It further aims at studying how values are affected by the type of activity in which the noise disturbance occurs (being out in the garden/try to sleep in the bedroom). Our method is to use stated preference techniques (pair wise choices) to elicit noise profile values. Respondents listen to and evaluate noise profile where we vary the level of background noise, frequency of noise events and the noise level of the events. This paper also discusses possibilities to estimate willingness to pay for changes in different components of noise profiles.

  • 9.
    Almström, Peter
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Engelson, Leonid
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Modelling the effect of transit supply and price structure on mode choice and route choice2011Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper develops a new mode choice and transit route choice model for work trips by either car or transit. In contrast to the conventional regional traffic models used for transportation planning in Sweden, the model accounts for the fact that the value of time varies within a population of travellers making a trip with the same purpose and the fact that the price can differ between different transit lines (bus, regional trains, etc.). A mixed binomial logit (MXL) model with a lognormally distributed cost parameter has been estimated for the mode choice. The MXL specification makes it possible to capture some of the variation in the value of time. The transit route choice model rests on the assumption that transit commuters purchase travel passes that are valid for a certain time period, e.g. a month. The travel pass then allows the traveller to use a certain set of transit lines, while others are not available. For the mode choice, the traveller compares travel cost and time with the chosen pass with the travel cost and time by car. The results from performed analyses indicate that if the interest is in overall mode share and overall travel flows, the conventional method in Swedish transport modelling will suffice. However, if the interest is more detailed, for example concerning boardings and ticket income from a certain transit line, or the total benefit of a price change, the model developed in this paper will give more reliable results.

  • 10.
    Beser Hugosson, Muriel
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Accelerated Introduction of "Clean" Cars in Sweden2011Report (Other academic)
  • 11.
    Beser Hugosson, Muriel
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Accelerated introduction of ’clean’ cars in Sweden2012In: Cars and carbon: Automobiles and European climate policy in a global context, Springer Science+Business Media B.V. , 2012, p. 247-268Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The increased focus in Sweden on greenhouse gas emissions, oil dependency and energy efficiency has lead to the implementation of different policy measures in the transport sector. In Sweden there has been a long tradition of buying large, powerful and heavy cars with high fuel consumption and CO<inf>2</inf> emissions. The Swedish car fleet is the heaviest car fleet in all Europe. We describe and discuss effects of major measures that have been implemented to accelerate the introduction of clean cars in the Swedish car fleet. We also briefly describe a decision support tool to evaluate policies affecting the composition of the car fleet. We find that the result of the implemented measures is a high share of clean cars in new car sales and that these policies have lead to a dominance of low emission diesel cars and E85 cars in this share. We also find that the share of biogas cars is still very small and that the use of E85 fuel for E85 cars is quite price sensitive.

  • 12.
    Beser Hugosson, Muriel
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    SAMPERS - The new Swedish National Travel Demand Forecasting Tool2002In: National Transport Models - Recent Developments and Prospects, Advances in Spatial Science, Berlin: Springer-Verlag , 2002Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 13.
    Beser Hugosson, Muriel
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Habibi, Shiva
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Sundbergh, P.
    Evaluation of the Swedish car fleet model using recent applications2016In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 49, p. 30-40Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The composition of the car fleet with respect to age, fuel consumption and fuel types plays an important role on environmental effects, oil dependency and energy consumption. In Sweden, a number of different policies have been implemented to support CO2 emission reductions. In order to evaluate effects of different policies, a model for the evolution of the Swedish car fleet was developed in 2006. The model has been used in a number of projects since then, and it is now possible to compare forecasts with actual outcomes. Such evidence is relatively rare, and we think it may be useful to share our experience in this respect.We give a brief overview of the Swedish car fleet model system. Then we describe policies that have been implemented in recent years and the evolution of the Swedish car fleet. We then focus on two projects which enable comparison with actual outcomes, and analyse the differences between forecasts and outcomes. We find that the model has weaknesses in catching car buyers' preferences of new technology. When this is not challenged too much, the model can forecast reasonably well on an aggregate level. We also find that the model is quite sensitive to assumptions on future supply. This is not so much related to the model, but to its use. Depending on the use of the forecasts - be it car sales, emissions or fuel demand - it may be necessary to use different supply scenarios to get an idea of the robustness of the forecast result.

  • 14.
    Beser Hugosson, Muriel
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Habibi, Shiva
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Sundbergh, Pia
    The Swedish Car Fleet Model: Evaluation of Recent ApplicationsManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 15.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Properties of Internet and Telephone Data Collection Methods in a Stated Choice Value of Time Study Context2011In: Journal of Choice Modelling, ISSN 1755-5345, Vol. 4, no 2Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We analyze Internet and telephone Stated Choice (SC) survey methods in the context of the Swedish value of time study 2008. In this study, extensive piloting and follow up surveys was undertaken to assure high quality data. We use these data and data from the main survey to analyse properties of the different data collection methods. One conclusion is that Internet gives less random error in the SC data. On the other hand, the response rate drops when Internet is the only response and recruiting mode. A mixed mode survey, where Internet is the primary method but where respondents are knowingly subject to a telephone follow up survey, is found to give substantially higher Internet response rates. If the telephone follow up does not include SC questions, the value of time result will still be biased. A large part of this bias seems to be explained by socio-economic data, such as income and age, which are cheaper to collect.

  • 16.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Catching the tail: Empirical Identification of Value of time Distribution2011In: Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 2011, Vol. 46, no 2Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 17.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Catching the tail: Empirical identification of the distribution of the value of travel time2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 46, no 2, p. 378-391Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 18.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Identifying the Value of Time distribution - Evidence from the Swedish Value of Time Study 20082009In: Proceedings of International Conference of the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research (IATBR), 2009, Vol. 46, no 2Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 19.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    On the income elasticity of the value of travel time2012In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, no 2, p. 368-377Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Transport infrastructure is long-term and in appraisal it is necessary to value travel timesavings for future years. This requires knowing how the value of time (VTT) will develop over time as incomes grow. This paper investigates if the cross-sectional incomeelasticity of the VTT is equal to inter-temporal income elasticity. The study is based ontwo identical stated choice experiments conducted with a 13. year interval. Results indicate that the relationship between income and the VTT in the cross-section has remained unchanged over time. As a consequence, the inter-temporal income elasticityof the VTT can be predicted based on cross-sectional income elasticity. However, theincome elasticity of the VTT is not a constant but increases with income. For this reason, the average income elasticity of the VTT in the cross-sections has increased between the two survey years and can be expected to increase further over time. 

  • 20.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    Danish Transport Research Institute.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301). KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    The income elasticity of the value of travel time is not one number2009In: Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, 2009Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper provides new evidence on the evolution of the value of travel time (VTT) over time and its relation to income based on two essentially identical Stated Choice experiments conducted at an interval of 13 years. The results indicate that the income elasticity of the VTT is not uniform over income but increasing in income. As a consequence, the average rate at which the VTT increases with income in the cross-sectional samples has itself increased between the two survey years and can be expected to increase further over time. The estimation results support the idea that the income elasticity of the value of time has remained constant at each real income level. This confirms that it is not so much the relationship between income and the value of travel time that has changed over time as it is the level and distribution of income in the samples that has changed.

  • 21. De Jong, Gerard
    et al.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301).
    Papola, Andrea
    Burg, Robert
    Impact of E-Economy on Traffic and Traffic-Related Indicators in Urban Areas.2006In: Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, ISSN 0361-1981, p. 286-291Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As part of the Prediction of E-Economy Impacts on Transport (POET) project for the European Commission, the impact of the e-economy (including an increasing uptake of teleworking and teleshopping and better use of intelligent transport systems) on transport in a number of selected urban areas in Europe was modeled. The modeling for the urban areas used existing transport models (passengers and freight) for Paris; Stockholm, Sweden; Naples, Italy; Hamburg, Germany; and the Randstad, the Netherlands. Second, it used several scenarios on the degree to which information and communication technologies would be adopted for the year 2010. The third element in the modeling at the urban level was the use of so-called front-end models, estimated on new stated preference data. The outcomes in vehicle kilometers were also used to calculate the impact of the e-economy on energy use, emissions, and traffic accidents. Also, for some areas, impact on congestion and accessibility was calculated. For some of the areas and scenarios, considerable reductions in passenger kilometerage were found as a result of e-economy developments, but freight transport increased.

  • 22. Engström, E.
    et al.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment.
    Beser Hugosson, Muriel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment.
    The choice of new private and benefit cars vs. climate and transportation policy in Sweden2019In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, ISSN 1361-9209, E-ISSN 1879-2340, Vol. 69, p. 276-292Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Dedicated to show climate leadership, Sweden has committed to cut 70% of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions in the domestic transportation sector by 2030 compared to 2010 levels (except flights). This study evaluated the environmental impacts of three recent new car policies. Based on questionnaires and market supply data, multinomial logit discrete choice models were developed for private buyers and individuals with company cars for private use, denoted benefit cars. Estimates indicated that preferences among individuals with benefit cars were generally in favor of Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs) as compared to gasoline cars, in contrast with private consumers (ceteris paribus). Thus, the company car market seemed to be the main gateway for AFVs into the fleet; however, average GHG emissions per car sold were similar in both buyer segments, which was likely related to stronger preferences for larger and more expensive benefit cars. The results indicated that subsidies to private buyers would be influential only if they decreased the costs of AFVs as compared to conventional vehicles, and that none of the investigated policies had been very effective in shifting choices in favor of AFVs. Reduced fringe benefits tax for AFVs, annually worth up to €1100, resulted in only 0.7% lower average carbon emissions. A 'super Green Car’ premium, worth approximately €2000–€4000 at the time of purchase, decreased emissions by 0.4% among private consumers, twice the impact of a five-year tax-exemption for ‘Green Cars’. It appears that more stringent policies are needed to more substantially reduce GHG emissions from new cars.

  • 23.
    Frejinger, Emma
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Beser Hugosson, Muriel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Habibi, Shiva
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Introduction of clean cars in Sweden: a descriptive analysis2011Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 24.
    Habibi, Shiva
    et al.
    Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Space Earth & Environm, SE-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden..
    Beser Hugosson, Muriel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment.
    Sundbergh, Pia
    Dept Policy Anal, Transport Anal, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment.
    Car fleet policy evaluation: The case of bonus-malus schemes in Sweden2019In: International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, ISSN 1556-8318, E-ISSN 1556-8334, Vol. 13, no 1, p. 51-64Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, we evaluate the bonus-malus schemes proposed by governmental investigation in Sweden in 2014. The objective was to reach the target of maximum 95 g/km of average emissions for new car sales by 2020. Two bonus-malus schemes along with several other policies were introduced in different scenarios as measures to reach the target. The scenarios differ in design regarding bonus-malus schemes, vehicle circulation tax, clean car premiums, company car benefits tax, and fuel tax. Both private and company car segments are targeted in these scenarios. We use a nested logit model for car type choice to predict the effects of the proposed policy scenarios on Swedish new car sales. Moreover, we introduce a methodology to predict the future of car supply. Our model results show that none of the three proposed policy scenarios is successful enough to meet the average emissions target. Furthermore, although the number of electric, plug-in hybrid, and alternative fuel cars will increase, new car sales will still be dominated by fossil-fueled cars in all scenarios. The average emissions in the scenarios containing bonus-malus schemes are not lower than that of the business-as-usual scenario. However, introducing bonus-malus schemes on its own would reduce emissions showing that interacting with other non--differentiated policies counteracts their effects. Moreover, bonus-malus schemes are predicted to give a budget surplus effect.

  • 25.
    Habibi, Shiva
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Beser Hugosson, Muriel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Transport Studies, CTS.
    Sundbergh, Pia
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Evaluation of Bonus-Malus systems for reducing car fleet CO2 emissions in SwedenManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Early 2014, an official Swedish government investigation report (FFF-report) was releasedproposing a policy package to promote a Fossil Free Fleet in Sweden by 2050. One objective ofthis policy package is to design a Bonus-Malus system that pushes the Swedish fleet compositiontowards the EU objectives of the average CO2 emissions of 95 g/km for new cars by 2021. Theproposed scenarios address cars bought by private persons as well as by companies. These scenariosdiffer in designs for registration tax, vehicle circulation tax, clean car premiums, company carbenefits tax and fuel tax. We use the Swedish car fleet model system to predict the effects of theproposed scenarios on the Swedish car fleet composition. Also, we build a simple supply model topredict future supply.Our model results show that none of the three proposed scenarios is actually successful enoughto meet the Swedish average CO2 emissions target of 95 g/km in 2020. The average CO2 emissionsin two of these scenarios are actually higher than in the business as usual scenario. Relative toa business as usual scenario the number of ethanol and gas cars is reduced in the other scenarioswhich is a negative result in terms of fossil fuel independence. Also, the Bonus-Malus system givesa positive net result in terms of budget effects showing that car buyers choose to pay the malus for acar with higher emissions rather than to be attracted by the bonus of a car with lower emissions.

  • 26.
    Jonsson, Daniel
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    Berglund, Svante
    Almström, Peter
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
    The Usefulness of Transport Models in Swedish Planning Practice2011In: Transport reviews, ISSN 0144-1647, E-ISSN 1464-5327, Vol. 31, no 2, p. 251-265Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents some experience from using transport models in Swedish planning practice. First we outline three recent examples of planning settings in which transport models have been put to extensive use. For the Swedish ‘national’ transport plan for the period 2010–2021, which was recently finished, the national transport model SAMPERS was used to compute costs and benefits for many investment projects. The second example concerns the ‘regional’ plan for Stockholm, where a similar but less detailed model, LuTRANS, was used to investigate different transport and land use scenarios. The third example discusses a recent study on the feasibility of introducing congestion charges in Gothenburg, where both a fixed demand approach and SAMPERS were used. Furthermore, the paper tries to help identify what model development can do to help improve the production of decision support through modelling. We argue that effectiveness and efficiency are key. The first is characterized by making sure that the right things are done and that they are done right. Efficiency, which is less often discussed in the literature, is framed in terms of doing things on time and doing them only once. The managing organization around a national model system can play an important role in helping users avoid redundant work. It is also a good idea to resist the temptation to use up all improvements in computing power for additional model features. There are many worthwhile analyses that are never done because of time constraints.

  • 27. Kristoffersson, I.
    et al.
    Daly, A.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Modelling the attraction of travel to shopping destinations in large-scale modelling2018In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 68, p. 52-62Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Development of major shopping centres continues even though online shopping is increasing. This has implications for mode and destination choice for shopping travel and therefore also for sustainability, which need to be considered in planning policy. In this paper, we estimate models for shopping travel using an unusually rich data set of shopping attractions. We find that shopping travel is best represented in three separate models: consumables in short and long activity segments and durables. In all of these models, we show that representing nearby attractions outside the destination zone adds to the measured attraction. For long activity consumables and for durables, the addition of secondary attractions within 2 km of the main destination gives the best models. For short activity consumables, both 2 km and 5 km add to the model, but 5 km is slightly better. Furthermore, we find significant within-zone correlation in the consumables models but are unable to find significant between-zone correlation, indicating that zone boundaries have some behavioural meaning for shopping travellers, but larger areas are not viewed in this way. Shopping attractions with a specifically Swedish impact, Systembolaget (official alcohol outlet in Sweden) and IKEA, proved to be important in all the models. These attractors work better as part of the size than as part of the utility, indicating that they appear to be separate attractors of trips, rather than as adding to the utility of other attractors. The models are also applied in two policy scenario analyses in which the impacts of new IKEA establishments and availability of Systembolaget in all zones on destination and mode choice are assessed. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd

  • 28.
    Sundbergh, Pia
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301).
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301).
    Creating quiet city zones by noise charges and quiet vehicles. Part one: Traffic flow calculations2007In: Turkish Acoustical Society - 36th International Congress and Exhibition on Noise Control Engineering, INTER-NOISE 2007 ISTANBUL, 2007, p. 1970-1978Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    One important subject in the EU directive 2002/49/EC regarding noise maps and action plans is to establish or preserve quiet areas. In a study within the EU FP6 project "Quiet City Transport" we have analyzed the possibility of creating Quiet City Zones. The concept is to utilize quiet vehicles and apply restrictions on noisy vehicles by means of of closed gates or noise charges to reduce traffic flows and noise source emission in a zone. Traffic models were used to forecast the effects on traffic flow, using a prediction system modeling the travel demand and transport system of the entire Stockholm County. Traffic flow data from each simulation were used as input to create related noise maps of a selected study area. Applied methods and results are presented in two consecutive papers. In this paper, part one, we present traffic flow calculations. In addition, using a car type choice model we analyze what impact noise charges have on the share of low noise vehicles in the car stock. In part two, noise calculations and noise effects are presented.

  • 29. Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    et al.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport and Economics (closed 20110301), Transport and Location Analysis (closed 20110301).
    Willingness to accept commuting time for yourself and for your spouse: Empirical evidence from Swedish stated preference data2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, Swedish stated preference data is used to derive estimated values of commutingtime (VOCT). Both spouses in two-earner households are individually makingtrade-offs between commuting time and wage; both with regard to their own commutingtime and wage only, as well as when both their own commuting time and wageand their spouse’s commuting time and wage are simultaneously changed. Thus, we areable to compare how male spouses and female spouses value each other’s commutingtime. When only ones own commuting time and wage are attributes, the empiricalresults show that the estimated VOCT is plausible with a tendency towards high valuescompared to other studies, and that VOCT does not differ significantly betweenmen and women. When decisions affecting commuting time and wage of both spousesare analyzed, both spouses tend to value the commuting time of the wife highest. Forpolicy implications, this study provides additional support for the practice of valuingcommuting time higher than other private travel time. In addition, if VOCT were tobe gender specific, the value might be higher for women than for men in two-earnerhouseholds.

  • 30. Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    et al.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. Centre Transport Studies, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Willingness to accept commuting time within the household: stated preference evidence2016In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, Vol. 43, no 2, p. 219-241Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, stated preference data is used to derive estimated values of commuting time (VOCT). Both spouses in two-earner households are individually making trade-offs between commuting time and wage; both with regard to their own commuting time and wage only, as well as when both their own commuting time and wage and their spouse's commuting time and wage are simultaneously changed. Thus, we are able to compare how male spouses and female spouses value each other's commuting time. When only ones own commuting time and wage are attributes, the empirical results show that the estimated VOCT is plausible with a tendency towards high values compared to other studies, and that VOCT does not differ significantly between men and women. When decisions affecting commuting time and wage of both spouses are analyzed, both spouses value the commuting time of the wife highest. Further analysis show that this result is driven by households where the man has the highest income. If VOCT were to be gender specific in policy implications, the value might be higher for women than for men in two-earner households.

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