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  • 1.
    Börjeson, Lena
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies (moved 20130630).
    Höjer, Mattias
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies (moved 20130630).
    Dreborg, Karl-Henrik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies (moved 20130630).
    Ekvall, Tomas
    Finnveden, Göran
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies (moved 20130630).
    Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide2006In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 38, no 7, p. 723-739Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Various scenario typologies have been suggested in attempts to make the field of futures studies easier to overview. Our typology is based on the scenario user's need to know what will happen, what can happen, and/or how a predefined target can be achieved. We discuss the applicability of various generating, integrating and consistency techniques for developing scenarios that provide the required knowledge. The paper is intended as a step towards a guide as to how scenarios can be developed and used.

  • 2.
    Börjeson, Lena
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Höjer, Mattias
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Dreborg, Karl-Henrik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Ekvall, Tomas
    Finnveden, Göran
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Towards a user's guide to scenarios: A report on scenario types and scenario techniques2005Report (Other academic)
  • 3.
    Dreborg, Karl Henrik
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Infrastructure.
    Scenarios and structural uncertainty2004Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other scientific)
  • 4.
    Engström, Rebecka
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Dreborg, Karl-Henrik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Höjer, Mattias
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Björklund, Anna
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Svenfelt, Åsa
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Åkerman, Jonas
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Åtgärdspaket och omvärldsscenarier för de svenska miljömålen2007Report (Other academic)
  • 5.
    Engström, Rebecka
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Höjer, Mattias
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Dreborg, Karl-Henrik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Omvärldsscenarier till miljömålsarbetet2007Report (Other academic)
  • 6.
    Finnveden, Göran
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Börjeson, L
    Höjer, Mattias
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Dreborg, Karl-Henrik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Ekvall, T
    A Classification of Scenario Methods: Useful for the Expansion of Tools for Industrial Ecology2005Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 7.
    Gunnarsson-Östling, Ulrika
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Höjer, Mattias
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Dreborg, Karl-Henrik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Att använda scenarier: förslag till långsiktigt miljömålsarbete2006Report (Other academic)
  • 8.
    Höjer, Mattias
    et al.
    School of Computer Science and Communication (CSC), Centres, KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Sustainable Communications, CESC. KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Environmental Strategies Research (fms).
    Ahlroth, Sofia
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies (moved 20130630).
    Dreborg, Karl-Henrik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies (moved 20130630).
    Ekvall, Tomas
    Finnveden, Göran
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies (moved 20130630).
    Hjelm, Olof
    Hochschorner, Elisabeth
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies (moved 20130630).
    Nilsson, Måns
    Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Palm, Viveka
    Scenarios in selected tools for environmental systems analysis2008In: Journal of Cleaner Production, ISSN 0959-6526, E-ISSN 1879-1786, Vol. 16, no 18, p. 1958-1970Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A number of different tools for analysing environmental impacts of different systems have been developed. These include procedural tools such as strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and environmental management systems (EMS) as well as analytical ones such as life cycle assessment (LCA), life cycle costing (LCC), cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and the system of economic and environmental accounts (SEEA) including input-output analysis (IOA). Descriptions or scenarios of the future are typically relevant elements in these tools, since they are often used to describe impacts in the future. For futures studies a number of different approaches and techniques have been developed. In an earlier paper we have presented a typology of different types of scenarios that respond to different types of questions. These include predictive scenarios, explorative scenarios and normative scenarios. The aim of this paper is to explore connections between selected tools for environmental systems analysis and different scenario types. Although there is a clear need for futures studies in several tools for environmental systems analysis, it is interesting to note that the literature on methodologies for and case studies of combinations of futures studies and environmental systems analysis tools is rather limited. This suggests that there is a need for further research in this area including both methodoloy and practical case studies.

  • 9.
    Höjer, Mattias
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies (moved 20130630). School of Computer Science and Communication (CSC), Centres, KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Sustainable Communications, CESC.
    Dreborg, Karl Henrik
    KTH.
    Engström, Rebecka
    KTH.
    Gunnarsson-Östling, Ulrika
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Environmental Strategies Research (fms).
    Svenfelt, Åsa
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Environmental Strategies Research (fms).
    Experiences of the development and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish environmental quality objectives2011In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 43, no 4, p. 498-512Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents and evaluates a method for encouraging long-term thinking and for considering a variety of scenarios in environmental policy processes. The Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental quality objectives (EQOs) that national authorities are obliged to observe. These objectives are reviewed annually and evaluated in depth every four years. Here we describe and explore a futures study project for introducing more long-term thinking into work on the EQOs, which we tested in the in-depth evaluation in 2008. We found it difficult to design a collective scenario for a case with a wide variety of objectives and individuals with different backgrounds. However, this difficulty makes it even more important to incorporate futures studies into the work of the relevant authorities. Scenario work is often subcontracted, leading to a constant lack of futures studies expertise and thinking within authorities. Despite the difficulties, we found that experts within the authorities did begin to recognise the opportunities provided by futures studies. The project revealed an interest and need for futures studies within the authorities in charge of Swedish environmental quality objectives and our findings show that the authorities need to build up their own skills in futures studies. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

  • 10.
    Höjer, Mattias
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Dreborg, Karl Henrik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Engström, Rebecka
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Gunnarsson-Östling, Ulrika
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Svenfelt, Åsa
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Experiences of the development and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish national environmental objectives (vol 43, pg 1, 2011)2011In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 43, no 4, p. 497-512Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents and evaluates a method for encouraging long-term thinking and for considering a variety of scenarios in environmental policy processes. The Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental quality objectives (EQOs) that national authorities are obliged to observe. These objectives are reviewed annually and evaluated in depth every four years. Here we describe and explore a futures study project for introducing more long-term thinking into work on the EQOs, which we tested in the in-depth evaluation in 2008. We found it difficult to design a collective scenario for a case with a wide variety of objectives and individuals with different backgrounds. However, this difficulty makes it even more important to incorporate futures studies into the work of the relevant authorities. Scenario work is often subcontracted, leading to a constant lack of futures studies expertise and thinking within authorities. Despite the difficulties, we found that experts within the authorities did begin to recognise the opportunities provided by futures studies. The project revealed an interest and need for futures studies within the authorities in charge of Swedish environmental quality objectives and our findings show that the authorities need to build up their own skills in futures studies.

  • 11.
    Höjer, Mattias
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies. School of Computer Science and Communication (CSC), Centres, KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Centres, Centre for Sustainable Communications, CESC.
    Dreborg, Karl-Henrik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Engström, Rebecka
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Gunnarsson Östling, Ulrika
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Svenfelt, Åsa
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Experiences of the development and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish national environmental objectives2011In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 43, no 1, p. 1-15Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of the present paper is to present and evaluate a method for encouraging long-term thinking and considerations of a variety of scenarios in environmental policy processes. The Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental objectives that national authorities are responsible for. They are evaluated annually and also in-depth every fourth year. Here we describe and explore a futures study project for introducing a more long-term thinking in the work with the environmental objectives, tested in the in-depth evaluation 2008. An experience was that it is difficult to design a collective scenario work in a case with a wide variety of objectives and with individuals with different backgrounds. However, this difficulty makes it even more important to incorporate futures studies in authorities work. Scenario work is often subcontracted, leading to a constant lack of futures studies competence and thinking at the authorities. Another experience is that despite the difficulties, experts at the authorities did start thinking more in terms of opportunities with futures studies. A general conclusion from the work was that there is an interest and need for futures studies at the authorities in charge of the environmental objectives. The possibly most important conclusion from this project was that the authorities need to build up their own competences in futures studies.

  • 12.
    Jonsson, Daniel K.
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Atarodi, A
    Dreborg, Karl H.
    Magnusson, R
    Hellström, J
    Johansson, B
    Larsson, R.L
    Östensson, M
    Energisäkerhet: syntes och sammanfattning av ett tvåårigt forskningsprojekt för Försvarsmakten2009Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 13.
    Jonsson, Daniel K.
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Carlsson-Kanyama, Annika
    Dreborg, Karl H.
    Hedberg, L
    Hälsokonsekvensbedömning i risk- och sårbarhetsanalyser: Förstudie om klimatförändringar och extrema väderhändelser2006Report (Other academic)
  • 14.
    Jonsson, Daniel K.
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Dreborg, Karl H.
    Självförstärkande processer i transportsystemet2006Report (Other academic)
  • 15.
    Jonsson, Daniel K.
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Östensson, M
    Dreborg, Karl H.
    Magnusson, Roger
    Energi och säkerhet:  framtidsinriktad omvärldsanalys för Försvarsmakten2009Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 16.
    Jonsson, Daniel K.
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Östensson, Malin
    Dreborg, Karl Henrik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Magnusson, Roger
    Energy and Security in Long-Term Defence Planning: Scenario Analysis for the Swedish Armed Forces2009In: European Security, ISSN 0966-2839, E-ISSN 1746-1545, Vol. 18, no 1Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The competition for energy resources, as well as the closely related climate change problems, imply a number of global security consequences. A methodology to include energy aspects in long-term defence planning, based on broad civilian scenario approaches, is proposed. The study has been carried out by the Swedish Defence Research Agency, as commissioned by the Swedish Armed Forces, resulting in a number of future mission scenarios highlighting e.g. new challanges and tasks, as well as the need for new capabilities and equipment.

  • 17.
    Milestad, Rebecka
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Environmental Strategies Research (fms).
    Svenfelt, Åsa
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Environmental Strategies Research (fms).
    Dreborg, Karl Henrik
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Environmental Strategies Research (fms).
    Developing integrated explorative and normative scenarios: The case of future land use in a climate-neutral Sweden2014In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 60, p. 59-71Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Transition from the current oil-based world economy to an economy based on renewable resources can become a strong driving force for land use change. This paper describes the development of integrated explorative and normative scenarios for the analysis of future land use in a climate-neutral Sweden. The aim is to show how backcasting scenarios fulfilling far-reaching greenhouse gas reduction targets can be related to assumptions on possible external developments, in order to contribute to the discussion on future sustainable land use. A target-fulfilling scenario element was combined with an external scenario element, i.e. developments that cannot be influenced by the targeted actors. The scenarios were developed and analysed in collaboration with local actors. Four scenarios were used to describe how land in Sweden could be used when Sweden has achieved zero emissions of greenhouse gases in 2060. The explorative dimension stretched from a situation where there is no international climate agreement to one where there is an international agreement on reducing greenhouse gases. The backcasting dimension illustrated different strategies to achieve the target and stretches from a very influential municipal level to one where the national/EU level is most influential.

  • 18. Steen, P
    et al.
    Åkerman, J
    Dreborg, Karl H.G.
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Infrastructure.
    Henriksson, G
    Höjer, Mattias
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Infrastructure and Planning.
    Hunhammar, Sven
    Rignér, Johan
    KTH, Superseded Departments, Industrial Economics and Management.
    A sustainable transport system for Sweden in 20401999In: World Transport Research: Selected Proceedings from the 8th World Conference onTransport Research / [ed] H. Meersman, E. van de Voorde & W. Winkelmans, 1999, p. 667-677Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 19.
    Tyskeng, Sara
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Environmental Strategies.
    Dreborg, Karl H. G.
    Framtida förutsättningar för en hållbar avfallshantering: Övergripande omvärldsscenarier samt referensscenario2008Report (Other academic)
1 - 19 of 19
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