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  • 1. Bring, Arvid
    et al.
    Asokan, Shilpa M.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Jarsjoe, Jerker
    Levi, Lea
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Land and Water Resources Engineering. Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Pietron, Jan
    Prieto, Carmen
    Rogberg, Peter
    Destouni, Georgia
    Implications of freshwater flux data from the CMIP5 multimodel output across a set of Northern Hemisphere drainage basins2015In: EARTHS FUTURE, ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 3, no 6, p. 206-217Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) synthesizes the latest research in global climate modeling. The freshwater system on land, particularly runoff, has so far been of relatively low priority in global climate models, despite the societal and ecosystem importance of freshwater changes, and the science and policy needs for such model output on drainage basin scales. Here we investigate the implications of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble output data for the freshwater system across a set of drainage basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Results of individual models vary widely, with even ensemble mean results differing greatly from observations and implying unrealistic long-term systematic changes in water storage and level within entire basins. The CMIP5 projections of basin-scale freshwater fluxes differ considerably more from observations and among models for the warm temperate study basins than for the Arctic and cold temperate study basins. In general, the results call for concerted research efforts and model developments for improving the understanding and modeling of the freshwater system and its change drivers. Specifically, more attention to basin-scale water flux analyses should be a priority for climate model development, and an important focus for relevant model-based advice for adaptation to climate change.

  • 2.
    Levi, Lea
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Land and Water Resources Engineering. Department of Physical Geography and the Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Applied Hydraulics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Geodesy, University of Split, Split, Croatia.
    Data-driven analysis of water and nutrient flows: Case of the Sava River Catchment and comparison with other regions2017Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A growing human population and demands for food, freshwater and energy are causing extensive changes in the water and biogeochemical cycles of river catchments around the world. Addressing and investigating such changes is particularly important for transboundary river catchments, where they impose additional risk to a region’s stability. This thesis investigates and develops data-driven methodologies for detecting hydro-climatic and nutrient load changes and their drivers with limited available data and on different catchment scales. As a specific case study, we analyze the Sava River Catchment (SRC) and compare its results with other world regions. A past–present to future evaluation of hydro-climatic data is done on the basis of a water balance approach including analysis of historic developments of land use and hydropower development data and projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) output. Using observed water discharge and nutrient concentration data, we propose a novel conceptual model for estimating and spatially resolving total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) input and delivery-retention properties for a river catchment and its nested subcatchments, as well as detection of nutrient hotspots. The thesis identifies hydroclimatic change signals of hydropower-related drivers and finds consistency with other world regions. The proposed nutrient screening methodology provides a good distinction between human-related nutrient inputs and landscape-related transport influences on nutrient loading at subcatchment to catchment scale. A cross-regional comparison of the SRC data with the Baltic region shows similarity between nutrient-relevant indicators and driving socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The study highlights a number of complexities with regard to CMIP5 model representation of water fluxes. The large intermodel range of CMIP5 future projections of fluxes calls for caution when using individual model results for assessing ongoing and future water and nutrient changes.

  • 3.
    Levi, Lea
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Land and Water Resources Engineering. Department of Physical Geography and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Applied Hydraulics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Geodesy, University of Split, Split, Croatia.
    Cvetkovic, Vladimir
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Land and Water Resources Engineering.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Department of Physical Geography and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Data-driven analysis of nutrient inputs and transfer through nested catchmentsManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A data-driven screening methodology is developed for estimating nutrient inputs, deliveries and retentions in catchments with measured water discharges and nutrient concentrations along the river network. The methodology is also specifically applied to the Sava River Catchment (SRC), a major transboundary catchment in the Southeast Europe. A characteristic regional value emerges for nutrient input per unit area of around 30 T/yr/km2 for dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and 2 T/yr/km2 for total phosphorus (TP) in the relatively large nested catchments (>40 000 km2) of the SRC; fluctuating values are obtained for smaller nested catchments (of around 10 000 km2). The applied methodology also identifies hotspot catchments for nutrient input per unit area, in the range of 158 T/yr/km2 for DIN and 13 T/yr/km2 for TP, within the SRC. Furthermore, relative nutrient delivery is found to be scale-dependent, exhibiting power-law decay with increasing catchment area, with exponents of around 1.4-1.7 for both DIN and TP. At the largest catchment scale with available data within the SRC the relative delivery is around 0.08 for DIN and 0.03 for TP. Overall, the SRC nutrient data show similar nutrient relations to driving hydro-climatic conditions (runoff for nutrient loads) and socio-economic conditions (population density and farmland share for nutrient concentrations) as in the compared Baltic region.

  • 4.
    Levi, Lea
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Resources, Energy and Infrastructure.
    Cvetkovic, Vladimir
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Resources, Energy and Infrastructure.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Data-driven analysis of nutrient inputs and transfers through nested catchments2018In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 610, p. 482-494Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 5.
    Levi, Lea
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Land and Water Resources Engineering. Department of Physical Geography and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Applied Hydraulics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Geodesy, University of Split, Split, Croatia..
    Destouni, Georgia
    Department of Physical Geography and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Multi-model projections of future hydro-climatic and nutrient-load evolution in the Sava River CatchmentManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The direct output of the multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercompariosn Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the Sava River Catchment shows high uncertainty of hydro-climatic changes for the two future scenarios but exhibits overall agreement with the direction of the changes with results of some previous studies conducted for the SRC. Of particular importance are runoff changes induced by climate change as they might influence nutrient pollution in the catchment and as such cause water quality issues on a subcatchment to catchment scale. Such changes might have impact not only for the waters of the SRC but also the Danube River Catchment and the Black Sea. As none of the models shows to out-perfom any other model in reproducing observed temperature and water fluxes or their changes, nutrient yield calculation based on the ensemble mean and particular models show wide range of results and make any possible conclusions challenging and potentially misleading.

  • 6.
    Levi, Lea
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Andricevic, Roko
    Destouni, Georgia
    Hydroclimatic changes and drivers in the Sava River Catchment and comparison with Swedish catchments2015In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 44, no 7, p. 624-634Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, we investigate long-term hydroclimatic changes and their possible relation to regional changes in climate, land-use and water-use over the twentieth century in the transboundary Sava River Catchment (SRC) in South Eastern Europe. In a hydropower dominated part of the SRC, unlike in an unregulated part, we find increase in average annual evapotranspiration and decrease in temporal runoff variability, which are not readily explainable by observed concurrent climate change in temperature and precipitation and may be more related to landscape-internal change drivers. Among the latter investigated here, results indicate hydropower developments as most closely related to the found hydroclimatic shifts, consistent with previous such indications in studies of Swedish hydropower catchments. Overall, the present results have quantitatively framed the recent history and present state of hydroclimate in the SRC, of relevance for water resources in several countries and for a majority of their populations. This provides a useful basis for further assessment of possible future hydroclimatic changes, under different scenarios of climate change and land/water-use developments in the region.

  • 7.
    Levi, Lea
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Land and Water Resources Engineering. University of Split, Croatia.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University.
    Andričević, Roko
    University of Split, Croatia.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Hydroclimatic change driven by land-water-use developments:the case oftransboundary Sava River Catchment, South Eastern Europe2013Other (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Growing human demands for water, food and energy have led to extensive use and modification of world waterbodies, for instance by construction of dams, reservoirs and channels for hydropower purposes. In this studywe use the transboundary Sava River Catchment (SRC) in South Eastern Europe, as field case for investigatinglong-term hydroclimatic changes and their relation to regional hydropower and associated land-water-usedevelopments. We find sustained increase in average annual evapotranspiration, and decrease in average annualrunoff and temporal runoff variability as hydropower production increased in the SRC parts with the greatest suchdevelopments during the 20th century. Purely climate-driven estimates of change in evapotranspiration and runoffcannot capture these changes, which are apparently related to the land and water use changes associated withhydropower development. Direct comparisons with corresponding results from other world regions and globalestimates show consistent cross-regional results, supporting generalization of obtained specific numerical resultsand the used analysis approach on different scales and across different parts of the world.With regard to specific results, the estimated average increase of actual evapotranspiration by hydropowerrelated/reflected land-water-use changes in SRC (sub)catchments with considerable hydropower developmentis 37 mm/year (for their average annual hydropower production of 217 MWh/km2). This result is for instanceconsistent with a corresponding estimate of evapotranspiration increase by Destouni et al (2012) of 57 mm/year(for their investigated Swedish hydropower catchments with average annual hydropower production of 322MWh/km2).The SRC case study, of an area of recent political and social instability with less than ideal conditions regardingenvironmental monitoring, represents a methodological success by showing that, even in such a complicatedpart of the world, relevant data series can be compiled for detecting and recognizing hydro-climatic changes andtheir possible land-water-use drivers. The used catchment-wise methodological approach offers opportunities forimproved assessment of drivers and hydro-climatic changes across different scales, and for further development ofclimate and Earth system models based on this improved knowledge.

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