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  • 1. Dangendorf, Soenke
    et al.
    Müller-Navarra, Sylvin
    Jensen, Juergen
    Schenk, Frederik
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mechanics, Turbulence. KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Centres, Linné Flow Center, FLOW.
    Wahl, Thomas
    Weisse, Ralf
    North Sea Storminess from a Novel Storm Surge Record since AD 18432014In: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442, Vol. 27, no 10, p. 3582-3595Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The detection of potential long-term changes in historical storm statistics and storm surges plays a vitally important role for protecting coastal communities. In the absence of long homogeneous wind records, the authors present a novel, independent, and homogeneous storm surge record based on water level observations in the North Sea since 1843. Storm surges are characterized by considerable interannual-to-decadal variability linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Time periods of increased storm surge levels prevailed in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries without any evidence for significant long-term trends. This contradicts with recent findings based on reanalysis data, which suggest increasing storminess in the region since the late nineteenth century. The authors compare the wind and pressure fields from the Twentieth-Century Reanalysis (20CRv2) with the storm surge record by applying state-of-the-art empirical wind surge formulas. The comparison reveals that the reanalysis is a valuable tool that leads to good results over the past 100 yr; previously the statistical relationship fails, leaving significantly lower values in the upper percentiles of the predicted surge time series. These low values lead to significant upward trends over the entire investigation period, which are in turn supported by neither the storm surge record nor an independent circulation index based on homogeneous pressure readings. The authors therefore suggest that these differences are related to higher uncertainties in the earlier years of the 20CRv2 over the North Sea region.

  • 2. Feser, F.
    et al.
    Barcikowska, M.
    Krueger, O.
    Schenk, Frederik
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mechanics, Turbulence.
    Weisse, R.
    Xia, L.
    Storminess over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe: A review2015In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 141, no 687, p. 350-382Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This review assesses storm studies over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe regarding the occurrence of potential long-term trends. Based on a systematic review of available articles, trends are classified according to different geographical regions, datasets, and time periods. Articles that used measurement and proxy data, reanalyses, regional and global climate model data on past and future trends are evaluated for changes in storm climate. The most important result is that trends in storm activity depend critically on the time period analysed. An increase in storm numbers is evident for the reanalyses period for the most recent decades, whereas most long-term studies show merely decadal variability for the last 100-150 years. Storm trends derived from reanalyses data and climate model data for the past are mostly limited to the last four to six decades. The majority of these studies find increasing storm activity north of about 55-60° N over the North Atlantic with a negative tendency southward. This increase from about the 1970s until the mid-1990s is also mirrored by long-term proxies and the North Atlantic Oscillation and constitutes a part of their decadal variability. Studies based on proxy and measurement data or model studies over the North Atlantic for the past which cover more than 100 years show large decadal variations and either no trend or a decrease in storm numbers. Future scenarios until about the year 2100 indicate mostly an increase in winter storm intensity over the North Atlantic and western Europe. However, future trends in total storm numbers are quite heterogeneous and depend on the model generation used.

  • 3. Rutgersson, A.
    et al.
    Jaagus, J.
    Schenk, Frederik
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mechanics, Turbulence. Institute for Coastal Research, Germany .
    Stendel, M.
    Observed changes and variability of atmospheric parameters in the Baltic Sea region during the last 200 years2014In: Climate Research (CR), ISSN 0936-577X, E-ISSN 1616-1572, Vol. 61, no 2, p. 177-190Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Baltic Sea is located in Northern Europe and exhibits significant climate variability, with influence of air masses from arctic to subtropical origin. By updating and discussing results described in the framework of the BACC project (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin), this study presents observed changes in atmospheric parameters during the last 200 yr. Circulation patterns show large decadal variability with a northward shift of storm tracks and increased cyclonic activity in recent decades with increased persistence of weather types. However, the wind climate shows no robust long-term trends, and is dominated by pronounced (multi-)decadal variability. Near-surface temperatures show continued warming, in particular during spring and winter; this is stronger over northern regions. Up to this point, no long-term trends are detectable for precipitation, although some regional indications exist for an increased length of precipitation periods, and possibly an increased risk of extreme precipitation events.

  • 4.
    Schenk, Frederik
    et al.
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Centres, Linné Flow Center, FLOW. Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Svante Arrhenius Vag 8, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Dept Geol Sci, Svante Arrhenius Vag 8, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Valiranta, Minna
    Univ Helsinki, Ecosyst & Environm Res Programme, Fac Biol & Environm Sci, ECRU, POB 65, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland.;Univ Helsinki, Helsinki Inst Sustainabil Sci HELSUS, POB 65, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland..
    Muschitiello, Francesco
    Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Svante Arrhenius Vag 8, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Dept Geol Sci, Svante Arrhenius Vag 8, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.;Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England.;Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, 61 Route 9 W, New York, NY 10964 USA..
    Tarasov, Lev
    Mem Univ Newfoundland, Dept Phys & Phys Oceanog, St John, NF A1B 3X7, Canada..
    Heikkila, Maija
    Univ Helsinki, Ecosyst & Environm Res Programme, Fac Biol & Environm Sci, ECRU, POB 65, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland.;Univ Helsinki, Helsinki Inst Sustainabil Sci HELSUS, POB 65, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland..
    Björck, Svante
    Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Svante Arrhenius Vag 8, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Dept Geol Sci, Svante Arrhenius Vag 8, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.;Lund Univ, Dept Geol, Quaternary Sci, Box 117, SE-22100 Lund, Sweden..
    Brandefelt, Jenny
    Swedish Nucl Fuel & Waste Management Co SKB, Box 250, SE-10124 Stockholm, Sweden..
    Johansson, Arne V.
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Centres, Linné Flow Center, FLOW. KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mechanics.
    Näslund, Jens-Ove
    Swedish Nucl Fuel & Waste Management Co SKB, Box 250, SE-10124 Stockholm, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Quaternary Geol, Svante Arrhenius Vag 8, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden..
    Wohlfarth, Barbara
    Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Svante Arrhenius Vag 8, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Dept Geol Sci, Svante Arrhenius Vag 8, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden..
    Warm summers during the Younger Dryas cold reversal2018In: Nature Communications, ISSN 2041-1723, E-ISSN 2041-1723, Vol. 9, article id 1634Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal interrupts the warming climate of the deglaciation with global climatic impacts. The sudden cooling is typically linked to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to meltwater discharges from ice sheets. However, inconsistencies regarding the YD-response of European summer temperatures have cast doubt whether the concept provides a sufficient explanation. Here we present results from a high-resolution global climate simulation together with a new July temperature compilation based on plant indicator species and show that European summers remain warm during the YD. Our climate simulation provides robust physical evidence that atmospheric blocking of cold westerly winds over Fennoscandia is a key mechanism counteracting the cooling impact of an AMOC-slowdown during summer. Despite the persistence of short warm summers, the YD is dominated by a shift to a continental climate with extreme winter to spring cooling and short growing seasons.

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