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  • 1.
    Brouwers, Lisa
    et al.
    KTH, School of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Communication: Services and Infrastucture, Software and Computer Systems, SCS.
    Cakici, Baki
    KTH, School of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Communication: Services and Infrastucture, Software and Computer Systems, SCS.
    Camitz, Martin
    Karolinska Institutet, MEB.
    Tegnell, Anders
    Socialstyrelsen.
    Boman, Magnus
    KTH, School of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Communication: Services and Infrastucture, Software and Computer Systems, SCS.
    Economic consequences to society of pandemic H1N1 influenza 2009: preliminary results for Sweden2009In: Eurosurveillance, ISSN 1025-496X, E-ISSN 1560-7917, Vol. 14, no 37, p. 19333-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Experiments using a microsimulation platform show that vaccination against pandemic H1N1 influenza is highly cost-effective. Swedish society may reduce the costs of pandemic by about SEK 2.5 billion (approximately EUR 250 million) if at least 60 per cent of the population is vaccinated, even if costs related to death cases are excluded. The cost reduction primarily results from reduced absenteeism. These results are preliminary and based on comprehensive assumptions about the infectiousness and morbidity of the pandemic, which are uncertain in the current situation.

  • 2.
    Cakici, Baki
    KTH, School of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Communication: Services and Infrastucture, Software and Computer Systems, SCS.
    Disease surveillance systems2011Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent advances in information and communication technologies have made the development and operation of complex disease surveillance systems technically feasible, and many systems have been proposed to interpret diverse data sources for health-related signals. Implementing these systems for daily use and efficiently interpreting their output, however, remains a technical challenge.

    This thesis presents a method for understanding disease surveillance systems structurally, examines four existing systems, and discusses the implications of developing such systems. The discussion is followed by two papers. The first paper describes the design of a national outbreak detection system for daily disease surveillance. It is currently in use at the Swedish Institute for Communicable Disease Control. The source code has been licenced under GNU v3 and is freely available. The second paper discusses methodological issues in computational epidemiology, and presents the lessons learned from a software development project in which a spatially explicit micro-meso-macro model for the entire Swedish population was built based on registry data.

  • 3.
    Cakici, Baki
    et al.
    KTH, School of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Communication: Services and Infrastucture (Closed 20120101), Software and Computer Systems, SCS (Closed 20120101).
    Boman, Magnus
    A workflow for software development within computational epidemiology2011In: Journal of Computational Science, ISSN 1877-7503, Vol. 2, no 3, p. 216-222Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A critical investigation into computational models developed for studying the spread of communicable disease is presented. The case in point is a spatially explicit micro-meso-macro model for the entire Swedish population built on registry data, thus far used for smallpox and for influenza-like illnesses. The lessons learned from a software development project of more than 100 person months are collected into a check list. The list is intended for use by computational epidemiologists and policy makers, and the workflow incorporating these two roles is described in detail.

  • 4.
    Cakici, Baki
    et al.
    KTH, School of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Communication: Services and Infrastucture, Software and Computer Systems, SCS.
    Hebing, Kenneth
    Swedish Institute for Infectious Control (SMI), Solna, Sweden.
    Grünewald, Maria
    Swedish Institute for Infectious Control (SMI), Solna, Sweden.
    Saretok, Paul
    Swedish Institute for Infectious Control (SMI), Solna, Sweden.
    Hulth, Anette
    Swedish Institute for Infectious Control (SMI), Solna, Sweden.
    CASE: a framework for computer supported outbreak detection2010In: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, ISSN 1472-6947, E-ISSN 1472-6947, Vol. 10, p. 14-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: In computer supported outbreak detection, a statistical method is applied to a collection of cases to detect any excess cases for a particular disease. Whether a detected aberration is a true outbreak is decided by a human expert. We present a technical framework designed and implemented at the Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control for computer supported outbreak detection, where a database of case reports for a large number of infectious diseases can be processed using one or more statistical methods selected by the user. Results: Based on case information, such as diagnosis and date, different statistical algorithms for detecting outbreaks can be applied, both on the disease level and the subtype level. The parameter settings for the algorithms can be configured independently for different diagnoses using the provided graphical interface. Input generators and output parsers are also provided for all supported algorithms. If an outbreak signal is detected, an email notification is sent to the persons listed as receivers for that particular disease. Conclusions: The framework is available as open source software, licensed under GNU General Public License Version 3. By making the code open source, we wish to encourage others to contribute to the future development of computer supported outbreak detection systems, and in particular to the development of the CASE framework.

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