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  • 101.
    Khatiwada, Dilip
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Scenarios for bioethanol production in Indonesia: How can we meet mandatory blending targets?2017In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, ISSN ISSN: 0360-5442, Vol. 119, p. 351-361Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study investigates the potential of bioethanol production and fossil fuel substitution using sugarcane feedstock in Indonesia. Current production practices, government biofuel policies (esp. mandatory blending targets), and sugar self-sufficiency are simulated to project the total potential of fuel ethanol and land requirements in the timeframe between 2015 and 2025. At present conditions, 450 million liters bioethanol can be annually produced in Indonesia using sugarcane molasses, a low-value co-product. This gives only a marginal contribution equivalent to 1% of the total gasoline consumption in 2015. The study examines the ethanol production potential after domestic sugar self-sufficiency is achieved by 2020. In 2015, 0.71 Mha land were required for sugarcane cultivation in order to meet a 2% blend mandate i.e. 0.68 billion liters (BL) ethanol using only cane-molasses. Juice ethanol is needed to meet the blending targets set for 2020 (i.e., 4.45 BL ethanol) and 2025 (i.e., 11.48 BL ethanol). This translates into sugarcane feedstock obtained from 1.60 Mha and 2.76 Mha land, respectively. The study also evaluates how improved resource efficiency can be achieved, exploring the bioelectricity production potential from sugarcane biomass, improvements in yields, and modernization of sugarcane mills. The results highlight how the use of established technologies and production methods can help develop agro-industries in the sugar ethanol segment of Indonesia.

  • 102.
    Khatiwada, Dilip
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Johnson X., Francis
    Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Africa Centre, c/o ICRAF, United Nations Avenue, 00100 Nairobi, Kenya.
    Energy production from sugarcane feedstock: Assessing fossil fuel substitution and climate change mitigation potential in Indonesia2015Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper examines the potential for energy (i.e. bioethanol and bioelectricity) production and fossil fuel substitution in Indonesia based on sugarcane feedstock. Indonesia is one of the top ten cane producers in the world, and has huge potential to produce bioethanol and bioelectricity. Current agricultural practices, industrial milling operations, supply-chain management, and feedstock (i.e. sugarcane) supply and main/co-products (i.e. sugar, molasses, and bagasse) production and their demand/utilization are identified. At present conditions, around 350 million litres bioethanol can be annually produced in Indonesia using sugarcane molasses (a low-value co-product). In addition, approximately 400 MW surplus bioelectricity can be generated and connected to the grid using the state-of-the-art or efficient bagasse cogeneration technologies in sugar mills. The substitution of fuel ethanol in transport helps reduce the imports of subsidised oil products while bioelectricity substitutes coal based electricity in the nation. Associated climate benefits, i.e. climate change mitigation potential, will also be estimated. The study also explores the potential of fuel ethanol and power production considering the improvement of cane yield and the expansion of sugarcane field as the country wants to modernize sugarcane sector and expand the cultivation areas aiming at achieving sugar self-sufficiency. Indonesia has set differentiated and time-bound mandatory biofuel targets, and sugarcane is one of the main feedstocks for bioethanol production. Therefore, it is vital to scrutinize how sugarcane bioethanol could help meet the target in synergy with agricultural, industrial and energy development in a sustainable way.

  • 103.
    Khatiwada, Dilip
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
    Sylvain, Leduc
    Ecosystems Services & Management (ESM) program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
    McCallum, Ian
    Ecosystems Services & Management (ESM) program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Optimizing second generation bioethanol production in sugarcane biorefineries in Brazil2012Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 104.
    Khatiwada, Dilip
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Venkata K., Bharadwaj
    World Bioenergy Association, Holländargatan 17, 111 60 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Johnson X., Francis
    Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Africa Centre, c/o ICRAF, United Nations Avenue, 00100 Nairobi, Kenya.
    Energy and GHG balances of ethanol production from cane molasses in Indonesia2016In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 164, p. 756-768Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study analyses the sustainability of fuel ethanol production from cane molasses in Indonesia. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is performed to evaluate the net emissions (climate change impact) and energy inputs (resource consumption) in the production chain. The lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the production and use of ethanol are estimated at 29 gCO2eq per MJ of ethanol produced which is a 67% reduction in comparison to gasoline emissions. Net Energy Value (NEV) and Net Renewable Energy Value (NREV) are -7 MJ/l and 17.7 MJ/l, while the energy yield ratio (ER) is 6.1. Economic allocation is chosen for dividing environmental burdens and resource consumption between sugar (i.e. main product) and molasses (i.e. co-product used for fuel production). Sensitivity analysis of various parameters is performed. The emissions and energy values are highly sensitive to sugarcane yield, ethanol yield, and the price of molasses. The use of sugarcane biomass residues (bagasse/trash) for efficient cogeneration, and different waste management options for the treatment of spent wash (effluent of distilleries) are also explored. Surplus bioelectricity generation in the efficient cogeneration plant, biogas recovery from wastewater treatment plant, and their use for fossil fuel substitution can help improve energy and environmental gains. The study also compares important results with other relevant international studies and discusses issues related to land use change (LUC) impact.

  • 105.
    Kong-Win Chang, James
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS. Technical University of Lisbon, Instituto Superior Técnico.
    COMPARATIVE ENERGY AND GREENHOUSE GAS ANALYSES BETWEEN SMALL- AND LARGE-SCALE SUGARCANE PRODUCTION IN MAURITIUS2013Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    This study uses energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) balances to evaluate how the scale of sugarcane cultivation affects the performance of a sugarcane bioenergy system generating exportable electricity from bagasse. Small-, medium-, large- and miller-planter systems, with cane field areas of less than 10 ha, 10 – 42 ha, 42 – 2000 ha, more than 2000 ha respectively, were modelled. Each of them also has different combinations of manual and mechanical agricultural operations, resulting in different cane yields.

    Miller-planter system (fully mechanised) performs best with energy yield ratio of 10.99, GHG emissions in bagasse electricity of 0.0633 kg CO2eq/kWh and avoided life cycle GHG emissions of 82.07% when replacing electricity from coal, whereas small-planter system (fully manual) has the worst performance with energy yield ratio of 6.82, GHG emissions in bagasse electricity of 0.0881 kg CO2eq/kWh and avoided life cycle GHG emissions of 75.03% when substituting electricity from coal.

    Sensitivity analyses show that relative performances of all sugarcane planter systems both in terms of energy and GHG emissions are not significantly affected by variations in bagasse allocation factor, in sugarcane yield and in fertiliser input (the most energy-intensive and GHG-emitting component). Moreover, they confirm miller-planter system as the overall best performer and indicate that increasing small-planters’ cane yield is the critical measure to improve their energy analysis performance. In terms of the nature of agricultural operations, mechanical operations do not necessarily require more input energy than their manual counterparts, contrary to common belief. This is the case for fertilisation, irrigation and cane loading. Fully mechanised sugarcane production at miller-planter scale is therefore strongly encouraged.

  • 106.
    Kotu, Teshome Bekele
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    RENEWABLE FOR RURAL ELECTRIFICATION IN ETHIOPIA2012Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
  • 107.
    Kummamuru Venkata, Bharadwaj
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Life cycle assessment and resource management options for bio-ethanol production from cane molasses in Indonesia2013Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    The intent of this thesis is to analyse the sustainability of producing bio-ethanol from cane molasses in Indonesia and its potential to replace gasoline in the transportation sector. A field trip was conducted in East Java, Indonesia, and data was gathered for analysis. Life cycle assessment (LCA) was performed to analyse the net emissions and energy consumption in the process chain. The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the life cycle are 17.45 gCO2e per MJ of ethanol produced. In comparison to gasoline, this results in a 78% reduction in GHG emissions in the complete process chain. Net Energy Value (NEV) and Net Renewable Energy Value (NREV) were 6.65 MJ/l and 24 MJ/l. Energy yield ratio (ER) was 9.43 MJ of ethanol per MJ of fossil energy consumed in the process. Economic allocation was chosen for allocating resources between sugar and molasses. Sensitivity analysis of various parameters was performed. The emissions and energy values are highly sensitive to sugarcane yield, ethanol yield and the price of molasses. Alternative management options were considered for optimizing the life cycle. Utilizing ethanol from all the mills in Indonesia has a potential to replace 2.3% of all motor gasoline imports. This translates in import savings of 2.3 trillion IDR per year. Use of anaerobic digestion or oxidation ponds for waste water treatment is unviable due to high costs and issues with gas leakage. Utilizing 15% of cane trash in the mill can enable grid independency. Environmental impacts due to land use change (Direct & Indirect) can be crucial in overall GHG calculations. Governmental regulation is necessary to remove current economic hurdles to aid a smoother transition towards bioethanol production and utilization.

  • 108.
    Leduc, Sylvain
    et al.
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
    Wetterlund, Elisabeth
    Luleå University of Technology, Luleå, Sweden.
    Dotzauer, Erik
    Mälardalen University, Västerås, Sweden.
    Schmidt, Johannes
    University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria.
    Natarajan, Karthikeyan
    University of Eastern Finland (UEF), Joensuu, Finland.
    Khatiwada, Dilip
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Policies and Modeling of Energy Systems for Reaching European Bioenergy Targets2015In: Handbook of Clean Energy Systems / [ed] Professor Jinyue Yan, John Wiley & Sons, 2015, p. 3165-3182Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 109.
    Lefvert, Adrian
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    The Swedish energy system and the role of hydrogen: a modelling study of the energy and transport sector2018Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    In light of the ongoing climate change dilemma, and the consequences that a failure to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions to a stable level will most likely induce, there is an overwhelming consensus among scientists and political leaders that actions are necessary to ensure that adaptation and mitigation options are secured. The European Union, as well as the Swedish government, agrees with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Conference of Parties that a reduction of the fossil fuel dependency is essential. In respect of this, the concept of a hydrogen economy has been around as a promising solution to the current challenges that the energy systems faces, e.g. an increasing amount of renewable intermittent capacity.  This is calling for smart grids, demand side management and storage solutions. Hydrogen as an energy carrier can serve multiple purposes, as an energy storage for variable generation as well as a fuel for both the industry and the transport sector. Currently, there have been a few incentives to develop these so-called power-to-gas and power-to-power energy chains; however, progress is still slow. Before major investments can be seen in this technology, the potential will have to be evaluated thoroughly. In this thesis, the hydrogen potential costs and environmental benefits are assessed through energy modelling in the cost optimisation analytical tool OSeMOSYS (Open Source energy Modelling SYStem). Specifically, through scenario development, the potential use of hydrogen as fuel for passenger cars and buses has been analysed. The results show that although there is some potential for hydrogen use in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), the transition will be expensive and slow. Yet, a large reduction of emissions due to the shift from fossil fuels in the transport sector still makes hydrogen a relevant energy carrier to consider for the future. Continued efforts to assess the potential synergies of interconnecting the different energy sectors are necessary to understand its full potential.

  • 110.
    Lönnqvist, Tomas
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Bolivia torkar ut2011Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 111.
    Lönnqvist, Tomas
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Bred ansats i tillämpade systemstudier2008Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 112.
    Lönnqvist, Tomas
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Competitive renewablegas options-emerging bioenergy segments2010Conference paper (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 113.
    Lönnqvist, Tomas
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Olsson, Jesper
    MDH.
    Espinosa, Cecilia
    Center for Promotion of Sustainable Technology (CPTS).
    Birbuet, Juan Cristóbal
    Center for Promotion of Sustainable Technology (CPTS).
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Chemical Science and Engineering (CHE), Chemical Engineering and Technology, Energy Processes.
    Dahlquist, Erik
    MDH.
    Thorin, Eva
    MDH.
    Persson, Per-Erik
    VAFAB Miljö AB.
    Lindblom, Sandra
    VAFAB Miljö AB.
    Khatiwada, Dilip
    KTH.
    The potential for waste to biogas in La Paz and El Alto in Bolivia2013In: 1st International Water Association Conference on HolisticSludge Management, 2013, Västerås Sweden, 2013Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the cities of La Paz and El Alto, 573 tons of organic material are disposed in landfills every day. These residues can be used to produce biogas and recycle nutrients, thus alleviating environmental impacts related to waste management. Technical solutions are evaluated through a multicriteria analysis with the purpose of defining a strategy for implementing waste-to-biogas in the two cities. As a result, the development for waste-to-biogas-system is defined in three steps. Step 1 consists of an active extraction system of landfill gas in the already existing landfills. Step 2 implies the establishment of a dry-digestion biogas facility based on present waste collection practices, that is, not segregated waste. Step 3 consists of a biogas plant using dry digestion for processing source segregated bio-waste. The economic feasibility of these three steps is evaluated. Despite prevailing fossil fuels subsidies in the country, implementing waste-to-biogas turn out feasible in the country provided the digestate is commercialized as bio-fertilizer or erosion control material and additional services such as waste collection and deposition are computed in the total economy of the biogas production plant.

  • 114.
    Lönnqvist, Tomas
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Enhancing the biogas potential from residues and energy crops in Sweden2010Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Gas has played a marginal role in the Swedish energy system not only because Sweden lacks fossil gas resources but also due to the lack of specific policies to develop the segment. This contrasts with the present situation in many other European countries where gas grids and markets are well developed. More recently, changing demand patterns in the transport sector and stringent environmental policies have triggered the development of biogas and provided a strong incentive for the development of infrastructure for biomethane in many Swedish towns. On-going initiatives often combine public and private efforts mainly at the municipal level. They build upon new opportunities in the transport sector and, thus, the biogas is upgraded to biomethane to fulfil the standard requirements of vehicle engines. However, biomethane production and infrastructural efforts have not always been in phase with the rapid expansion of the vehicle fleet.Only a small part of the practical production potential for biogas has been realized in Sweden so far. There is considerable potential for further expansion based on agricultural, urban and industrial residues, but also energy crops. However, assessments regarding the potential for energy crops in Sweden are rather divergent. This paper provides a comparison between different Swedish assessments and also European ones and further discusses the practical potential for biogas generation in Sweden. Immediate opportunities for biogas generation are identified. The study results from a collaboration between the division of Energy and Climate Studies at KTH and Fortum Värme.

  • 115.
    Lönnqvist, Tomas
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Khatiwada, Dilip
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Potential to transform waste to biogas in La Paz and El Alto, Bolivia – Challenges and opportunities2012Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This presentation deals with the potential to transform waste to energy in La Paz and El Alto in Bolivia. The urban area of these municipalities is facing problems with waste management, water contamination, land use, and environmental burdens.

    The existing waste management system is inefficient for recycling and reusing resources since segregation of waste is not common practice. Nevertheless, it represents an opportunity for implementing waste-to-biogas. The existing waste management system can be used to redirect the flow from landfills to biogas plants offering synergies between waste management and energy generation. Many advantages, for example, cost reductions might be achieved through waste-to-biogas in La Paz and El Alto. Currently only 30% of the waste management costs are covered by the collected fees, and thus municipalities are keen to find new ways for recovering costs. Biogas can also replace subsidized fossil fuels, such as domestic fossil gas and imported diesel, leading to environmental gains. Despite these potential benefits, there are policy incentives in other directions, institutional bottlenecks, and socioeconomic constraints that need to be tackled before the existing potential can be realized. In an on-going project led by KTH, we bring together actors along the waste management chain, as well as municipalities and ministries to define a common agenda to promote waste-to-biogas in La Paz and El Alto.

  • 116.
    Lönnqvist, Tomas
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Sanches-Pereira, Alessandro
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Swedish resource potential from residues and energy crops to enhance biogas generation2013In: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews, ISSN 1364-0321, E-ISSN 1879-0690, Vol. 21, p. 298-314Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper verifies the plausibility of existing assessments of the biogas potential in Sweden and whether a target of 1.1 TWh of biogas for transport, as per defined by Swedish authorities, can be met within the next ten years. We estimate that the Swedish resource potential for biogas generation from residues and energy crops amounts to 8.86 TWh in the midterm, equivalent to around 9% of the current domestic transport energy consumption. A large share of this potential remains unrealized and there is uncertainty regarding the existing resource potential, especially concerning energy crops. Nevertheless, the remaining biogas potential can make an important contribution to meet targets of an increased share of renewables in transport.  The study concludes that not only it is possible to meet the increased demand expected for gas in transport until 2020 but the existing potential could justify more ambitious goals than presently set by Swedish authorities.

  • 117.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Analysis of Sustainability Indicators for Renewable Energy Based Rural Electrification2012Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Are the renewable energy systems applied for rural electrification in developing countries sustainable? What governs the sustainability of rural electrification systems? Verifiable sustainability indicators need to be identified within technical, social, economic, environment and institutional dimensions of the system under evaluation in a given specific context. The various methods used in assessing the sustainability indicators have been briefly reviewed in this paper. The sustainability indicators within each sustainability dimension are again evaluated for each alternative that are under consideration and compared with a reference case.  All the indicators do not necessarily have same importance. These indicators can have different weight based on their importance in specific context. The questionnaire survey has been conducted with the local experts to determine the weighting factor of different indicators in the local context and finally the indicators under each sustainability dimension has been aggregated into one single index based on ratio of the sustainability indicators of two objects under analysis.. This index could help to have better comparison among various off-grid technologies and enhance the feasibility study of these available alternatives. This paper specifically analyzes the sustainability of rural electrification in Nepal with the technological alternatives viz. solar home systems, wind home systems  and micro-hydro comparing with fossil based technology diesel generator as reference. The analysis shows that under prevailing policy and market infrastructure in Nepal, micro-hydro technologies have strong sustainability indicators in terms of technical, economical and environmental dimensions compared to other technologies, but this technology is comparatively weaker on its institutional and social dimensions which need more attention in the project design and implementation.

  • 118.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Analyzing Cooking Fuel and Stove Choices in China2011Report (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many rural dwellings are still using low grade solid fuels with traditional stoves to meet their cooking and heating energy demands. This results in significant indoor pollution, which caused health hazards especially to women and children who are mostly exposed. The mode of energy consumption and types of stoves in use may change with changes in prosperity. Product specific and socio economic parameters may also influence these choices. This project aimed to analyze and model cooking fuel and stove choices including standard economic variables such as income, prices and costs, along with some variables unique to the developing country setting such as inconvenience costs. Understanding the factors that determine household choices and demand for cooking energy services formed the basis for developing policy scenarios that can accelerate a quicker transition to either modern fuels or improved stoves. MESSAGE-Access model was used is this study.

  • 119.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Electricity crisis: possible way out2009In: The Telegraph, no 26, p. 4-Article, book review (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 120.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Off-grid Rural electrification in Nepal: A Glimpse2012Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 121.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Renewable Energy Market for Rural Electrification in Developing Countries: Country Case Nepal2011Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The availability of abundant renewable resources, lack of fossil fuels and difficult geographical terrain for grid line extensions contribute to the advantages of renewable based decentralized rural electrification in Ne-pal. Solar home system (SHS) and micro-hydro are the most commonly adopted off-grid renewable energy technologies in the country. This dis-sertation examines the market of renewable energy based rural electrifi-cation within prevailing policy and programmes framework. The study verifies whether the market has been able to serve the poor in Nepal. It also captures the perception of various stakeholders (e.g. private sup-ply/installation companies, NGOs, financial institutions and the donor‘s programme) regarding the business, financing issues and the role of gov-ernment policy on the market development. In addition, the study dis-cusses and analyses renewable based rural electrification supply models, the economics behind rural electrification, market drivers and market distribution in the rural areas of Nepal.

    The financial mix in the off-grid rural electrification is generally charac-terized by subsidy, equity and credit. The study shows that awareness about renewable energy technologies and willingness to pay for electricity access has increased considerably. However, there is a huge financial gap between the cost of electrification and affordability among the poor. The distribution analysis shows there is significant increment in the extensive growth but decrease in the intensive growth rate of rural electrification thus indicating market expansion with uneven penetration among the ru-ral people. Solar PV technology is still not in the reach of the economic poor. Access to credit and cumbersome subsidy delivery mechanisms have been perceived as the major factors affecting the expansion of rural electrification by the stakeholders, requiring innovation in the credit and subsidy delivery system so that a larger rural population can be given ac-cess to electrification.

     

  • 122.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Sustainability of rural energy access in developing countries2014Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The importance of access to modern energy has been well understood by governments and donor agencies in many developing countries, and significant effort has been made in recent years to address energy access challenges. However, despite these efforts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted that the energy access problem will remain unresolved by 2030. Therefore, adequate and appropriate action is needed to resolve this problem more quickly. This dissertation analyses policies and their impacts and will help researchers and policy makers in developing countries to (i) understand the impact of policies in the formation of a renewable energy (RE) market, (ii) consider the determinants of technological choices when promoting access to energy services and, (iii) better appreciate the sustainability performance of rural energy. For the purpose of analysis, several country cases from Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa region were carried out as these are the two main regions where the energy access problem are most acute.

    To understand the impact of policies in the formation of RE based rural electrification market, a case study was conducted in Nepal. The study has shown that rural electrification has been expanding as a consequence of market-oriented policies. When it comes to selection of electrification path-ways, different technological alternatives are analysed in Afghanistan and Nepal, taking levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) as the means to select cost effective options. The analysis has presented best-fit conditions for these various technological pathways in the two countries and verified whether they are following the appropriate and cost effective course in their efforts to expand rural electrification. For understanding the determinants of cooking fuel choices and to analyse policy implications in the transition of large populations from traditional to modern fuels, fuel choices are modelled in the case of China. Choices are modelled (using MESSAGE–ACCESS mod-el) with standard economic variables such as income, technology costs and fuel prices, along with some unique variable such as inconvenience costs. Future access scenarios are designed considering different policy options to accelerate the transition.

    Sustainability is one of the key concerns in terms of energy access. This dissertation introduces methods for evaluating (i) the sustainability performance of energy technologies and (ii) the status and progress of developing countries in providing sustainable energy access. Different sets of sustainability indicators are considered for the rural energy sector and aggregated to form a single composite index. The energy technology sustainability index (ETSI) is used for assessing the performance of different energy technological systems in the case of India. The analysis reveals that mature technologies such as biomass gasifiers, biogas and micro hydro have relatively better sustainability performance among the options considered, while solar and wind, though showing fairly good improvement in sustainability performance, still have difficulties competing with more mature and conventional technologies without policy support. The Energy Sustainability Index (ESI) has been applied to China, India, South Africa, Sri-Lanka, Bangladesh and Ghana between 1990 and 2010 to evaluate the status and progress made by these countries in rural energy sustainability. The analysis suggests that South Africa’s rural energy sustainability index is highest followed by China, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh and Ghana respectively. The rural energy sustainability has improved relatively over time in all countries except Ghana.

    The dissertation shows that policies are helping the rapid expansion of the RE market though with uneven penetration in rural Nepal. Access to credit and cumbersome subsidy delivery mechanism are perceived as the major factors affecting the expansion of rural electrification, requiring innovation. The electrification pathways taken by Nepal seem functional and moving in the right direction but some flaws in the delivery mechanisms require attention. Meanwhile in Afghanistan, pathways are not well defined and the country lacks a clear-cut national policy framework for the expansion of rural electrification. The analysis on fuel transition shows that even a fast developing country such as China will continue to have serious problems guaranteeing the access to solid fuels for cooking for one third of its rural population by 2030. The problem could be more severe in poorer nations. There-fore, further policy intervention addressing the high implicit discount rate of the poorer section of the population, reducing the upfront cost of more efficient technology (stoves) or the costs of cleaner fuels with subsidies must be considered to promote energy transition.

    Overall, this dissertation has analysed key issues in the global discussion about sustainable energy access. The methods for sustainability assessment suggested have been specially designed for rural settings in developing countries and are instrumental to assess the performance of rural energy technologies and track the progress of sustainable energy access efforts among rural households.

  • 123.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS. Built Environment and Energy Technology, Linnaeus University, Växjö 351 95, Sweden.
    Ahmed, Hassan
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Integrated approach for provision of clean energy and water in rural Bangladesh2018In: Groundwater for Sustainable Development, ISSN 2352-801X, Vol. 7, p. 239-249Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The ultimate goal of this paper is to explore ways to upgrade energy and water services in rural areas of Bangladesh while improving resource recovery. The study analyzes the potential of a poly-generation system using locally available biomass resources (cow dung and agriculture residue) for providing cooking energy, electricity, and drinking water to a rural community. A questionnaire survey was conducted in Pani Para village with 52 households to investigate demand patterns and estimate the resource potential and amount of biogas needed in the poly-generation system. A poly-generation system with 150 m3 biogas digester and a 10 kWe generator is required to meet cooking energy, electricity and water demand in the village. Co-digestion of available resources including cow dung and agriculture residues can provide 48,250 m3 biogas/year, which is sufficient to supply electricity and clean drinking water to all households in the village. In addition, around two thirds of the households can use biogas for cooking. The sensitivity analysis shows that if the amount of agriculture residues is increased by 15%, also cooking gas can be provided to all households. The results indicate that such integrated solutions are worth further exploration. 

  • 124.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Dhital, Ram Prasad
    Alternative Energy Promotion Center-Nepal.
    Isolated and Mini-Grid Solar PV Systems: An Alternative Solution for Providing Electricity Access in Remote Areas (Case Study from Nepal).2015In: Solar Energy Storage, United Kingdom: Academic Press, 2015, p. 359-374Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Nepal is a landlocked country with difficult geographical terrain and without fossil reserves. However, the country has been blessed with abundant renewable resources. All these facts have contributed to the advantages of renewable-energy-based decentralized rural electrification in Nepal. When making technological choices, the cost-effectiveness of the technologies must be considered. This study presents solar photovoltaic (PV) alternatives for rural electrification, considering off-grid solar PV for individual households and solar mini-grids for electrifying rural communities, and comparing them with the supply option with grid extension and electricity from a diesel generator for the case of Kyangshing village in Sindhupalchowk, Nepal. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) production with these various alternatives is compared, along with the sensitivity analysis for some of the crucial input assumptions. Analysis has shown that a solar PV-based mini-grid system is the most cost-effective option for electrification in the village. The business model and operational and management model for such a solar PV-based mini-grid system have also been proposed for guaranteeing the sustainability of the system.

  • 125.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Emran, Saad Been
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Greenhouse gas mitigation using poultry litter management techniques in Bangladesh2017In: Energy Journal, ISSN 0195-6574, E-ISSN 1944-9089, Vol. 127, p. 155-166Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Poultry activities have expanded significantly in Bangladesh in recent years. The litter generated from rural poultry farms is often dumped in low ground neighboring areas resulting in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as water and air pollution. This study estimates the GHG emissions of a typical rural layer poultry farm in Bangladesh, and identifies the GHG emissions reduction potential when poultry litter management techniques are used to produce biogas, generating electricity and bio-fertilizer. Life-cycle assessment (LCA) has been used for a systematic evaluation of GHG-emissions considering the local supply chain in a typical rural layer poultry farm. The analysis shows that the GHG-emissions at the poultry farm amount to 1735 KgCO2eq/10000 eggs produced if the litter is untreated. With the installation of an anaerobic digester, the emission intensity could be reduced by 65% if the gas is used to replace LPG for cooking purposes. If 100% digested slurry is utilized as bio-fertilizer, the emissions intensity could be further reduced by 17 times compared to the case without slurry utilization. These results justify the consideration of national programs to improve conditions in poultry farms in Bangladesh. 

  • 126.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Hassan, Ahmed
    Khan, Ershad
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Heat and Power Technology.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Martin, Andrew
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Heat and Power Technology.
    Addressing the rural energy and drinking water needs by using Biogas in rural Bangladesh2012Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 127.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS. Linnaeus University, Sweden.
    Luukkanen, J.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Kaivo-Oja, J.
    Evaluating synergies and trade-offs among Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Explorative analyses of development paths in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa2018In: Sustainability, ISSN 2071-1050, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 10, no 3, article id 815Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Understanding the linkages between multiple targets of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) may help to integrate different sectoral programmes and develop coherent cross-sectoral policy to explore synergies. Synergy is interaction among two or more actions, which will lead to an impact greater or less than the sum of individual effects. Therefore, synergy can be positive or negative (trade-off). This paper aims at developing an analytical framework to evaluate sectoral linkages and examine potential synergies and trade-offs among various SDGs' goals and targets. Synergies and trade-offs related to energy access (SDG7), clean water and sanitation access (SDG6), food security and sustainable agriculture (SDG2) and poverty alleviation (SDG1) have been evaluated from the perspective of developing countries using examples from South Asia (Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka) and Sub-Saharan Africa (Ghana, Ethiopia and Rwanda), and historical data for the period between 1990 and 2012. The analytical framework includes both qualitative and quantitative methods. Network analysis technique has been used for exploring the conceptual linkage among different indicators, and capturing the targets associated with SDGs. Advanced Sustainability Analysis (ASA) developed under the European framework programme has been used for quantifying the synergies and trade-offs among sustainability indicators. The analysis showed strong synergy among various SDG targets. Interestingly, the potential synergy differs from country to country and over time. Ghana and Sri Lanka had relatively higher potential synergy, whereas Rwanda and Nepal had relatively lower potential synergy among the various targets. Higher synergy values were evidenced in those cases where the policy have recognized and emphasized on linkages among cross-sectoral targets.

  • 128.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Luukkanen, Jyrki
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Kaivo-oja J, Jari
    Synergies and trade-off among SDGs for energy, clean water and sanitation, poverty alleviation, food security and sustainable agriculture.2016Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) comprises of 17 different goals with 169 targets. Understanding how these multiple targets and goals cut across different sectors and are linked may help to design and appraise common strategies and cross-sectoral policies towards integrated development programmes. This paper aims at developing a method for evaluating the synergies and trade-offs among various goals and targets within SDGs using both qualitative and quantitative approaches. We have analyzed synergy across four SDGs in developing countries, namely energy access (SDG 7), clean water and sanitation access (SDG 6), food security and sustainable agriculture (SDG 2) and poverty alleviation (SDG 1). These specific SDGs have been identified as priority areas in the Rio+20. Various targets related to the four SDGs have been analyzed in this paper with the use of indicators. Developing countries viz. Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka from South Asia and Ghana, Ethiopia and Rwanda from Africa have been chosen for the analysis. We analyze interactions among goals, and examine how the accomplishment of one target under a specific goal might help to attend multiple goals (mutually reinforcing or synergies), or how the accomplishment of targets under one specific goal might impact targets under another goal (imposing conditions or trade-offs). Network analysis technique has been used for exploring the conceptual linkage among these different indicators capturing the various targets associated with SDGs. Advanced Sustainability Analysis (ASA) approach developed under the European framework programme has been used for quantifying the synergy and trade-off among various SDGs. Based on the analysis, some coherent policy measures across energy, water/sanitation, food and poverty alleviation nexus are suggested.  

  • 129.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Pachauri, Shonali
    Nagai, Yu
    Analyzing cooking fuel and stove choices in China till 20302012In: Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, ISSN 1941-7012, Vol. 4, no 3, p. 031805-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many people in China still burn low grade solid fuels in traditional stoves to meet their cooking and heating energy demands. This results in significant pollution, affecting the health of especially women and children who are exposed most. The mode of energy consumption and types of stoves in use may change with increasing prosperity. Product specific and socio-economic parameters also influence these choices. We analyze cooking fuel and stove choices in China. Choices are modeled to depend on standard economic variables such as income, technology costs, and fuel prices, along with some variables unique to the developing country setting such as inconvenience costs. Our analysis shows that 24% of the rural and 17% of the urban population will still depend on solid fuels in 2030 under a business as usual scenario. Various policy scenarios that can accelerate transition to modern fuels by 2030 are also analyzed in this paper and their costs, energy, emissions and health impacts assessed.

  • 130.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Pachauri, Shonali
    Rao, Narasimha
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Assessing rural energy sustainability in developing countries2014In: Energy for Sustainable Development, ISSN 0973-0826, Vol. 19, no 1, p. 15-28Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Providing sustainable energy access is one of the most critical global challenges. This paper introduces a method for evaluating the status and progress of rural household energy sustainability in developing countries using a new composite indicator, the energy sustainability index (ESI). The ESI combines 13 techno-economic, environmental and social indicators of sustainability using principal component analysis (PCA). We apply the ES! to China, India, South Africa, Sri-Lanka, Bangladesh and Ghana between 1990 and 2010. The analysis suggests that South Africa's rural energy sustainability index is highest followed by China, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh and Ghana respectively. All the countries' rural energy sustainability has improved relatively over time except Ghana's. Improvements result mainly from increasing rural electricity use and increasing access to clean and efficient cooking fuels.

  • 131.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Salih, Nizam
    Universal Access to Electricity in Sri Lanka: Opportunities and challenges2011Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 132.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Alternative pathways for providing access to electricity in developing countries2013In: Renewable Enegy, ISSN 0960-1481, Vol. 57, p. 299-310Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The discussion on electrification pathways tends to dangle between the merits of centralized on-grid versus decentralized off-grid electrification, and most of the time, both routes are promoted in parallel. However, the basis for choosing pathways has neither been very clear nor rational. This study compares three pathways for rural electrification considering (i) off-grid renewable energy (RE) technologies for individual households (ii) mini grids (with micro hydro and diesel generators) and (iii) grid extension. Different technological pathways are analyzed considering various technical and socio-economic parameters in two country cases: Nepal and Afghanistan. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is taken as the main basis for comparison of the various options, in which both environmental externalities and life cycle costs are considered. The analysis shows that the micro hydro based mini grid technology is the most competitive alternative for electrifying isolated and remote rural areas in both countries. Individual household technology should be promoted only in places with scattered households where there is no possibility of mini grid solution. The choice of technology and the pathway adopted in Nepal seems functional, though some flaws within the pathways need to be addressed. In Afghanistan, the technological pathways for rural electrification are not well-defined and the country lacks a clear cut national policy framework for rural electrification. Here, micro hydro based mini grid would be a more sustainable proposition rather than diesel generators as promoted in the transitional phase. Afghanistan can benefit from lessons learnt in Nepal not least in the formation of markets for renewable technologies.

  • 133.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Biogas based poly-generation for providing access to clean energy services and drinking water2012Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 134.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Financing off-grid rural electrification: Country case Nepal2011In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 36, no 4, p. 2194-2201Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    More than 61% of the total population of Nepal has no access to electricity. The majority is poor and live in rural areas. In recent years, rural electrification has had high priority in government policies, and micro hydro and solar PV have been the most commonly adopted off-grid technologies. The financial mix in the off-grid rural electrification is generally characterized by subsidy, equity and credit. In this paper, we analyze how rural electrification has been funded and the impact of subsidy policies on the renewable energy market, focusing on the projects implemented under the ‘subsidy policy 2000’. Our study is based on official data obtained from authorities in Nepal and a survey carried out among private supply and installation companies, NGOs and financial institutions. The study shows that awareness levels in adopting RE-technologies and willingness of people to access and pay for electricity have increased significantly. However, there is a huge financial gap between the cost of electrification and the affordability. Bridging this gap is a crucial issue that needs to be addressed for the smooth expansion of rural electrification in the country.

  • 135.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Renewable Energy for Rural Electrification in Developing Countries2010Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 136.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Renewable Energy in Rural Electrification: Country Case Nepal2010Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 137.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Renewable Energy Market in Rural Electrification: Country Case Nepal2012In: Energy for Sustainable Development, ISSN 0973-0826, Vol. 16, no 2, p. 168-178Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Markets for Renewable Energy (RE) technologies are emerging in Nepal in connection with rural electrification in the country. Two promising technologies are in evidence – solar home system (SHS) and micro-hydro. The availability of abundant renewable resources, lack of fossil fuels and difficult geographical terrain for grid line extensions contribute to the advantages of RE based decentralized rural electrification in Nepal. The distributional analysis shows increase in extensive growth and decrease in the intensive growth rate of rural electrification thus indicating market expansion with uneven penetration among the rural people. Solar PV technology is still not in the reach of the economic poor. This paper discusses and analyzes RE based rural electrification supply models, economics behind rural electrification, market drivers and market distribution in the rural areas of Nepal. Access to credit and cumbersome subsidy delivery mechanism have been perceived as the major factors affecting the expansion of rural electrification by the stakeholders, requiring innovations in credit and subsidy delivery system so that a larger rural population can have access to electrification.

  • 138.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Smart pathways for providing electricity in developing countries2011Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 139.
    Mainali, Brijesh
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Using a sustainability index to assess energy technologies for rural electrification2015In: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews, ISSN 1364-0321, E-ISSN 1879-0690, Vol. 41, p. 1351-1365Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper introduces a method for evaluating the sustainability performance of energy technologies applied in rural electrification, using the multivariate technique called Principal component analysis (PCA).The sustainability is assessed in terms of energy technology sustainability index (ETSI). The ETSI has been used for assessing the sustainability performance of ten different energy systems in the case of India. Since this method is static in nature, the sustainability performance analysis is made for three different years (2005, 2010 and 2015) to capture technological advancements and changes in market conditions for the various technologies over time. The result shows that mature technologies such as biomass gasifiers, biogas and microhydro technologies have relatively better sustainability performance among the options analyzed. There is slight increment in their sustainability performance in the ten year period considered. Emerging technologies such as solar and wind have fairly good improvement in the sustainability performance over the studied time but still have difficulties competing with the mature technologies and conventional technologies without policy support. Analysis has been made with probable, minimum and maximum capital costs, operational and fuel costs to capture uncertainty among the input assumptions, and sensitivity has been reflected in the analysis of energy technology sustainability index (ETSI). This ETSI could help improve energy technology assessments, particularly when it comes to the feasibility of available alternatives.

  • 140.
    Martínez Saperas, Verónica
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Development of a forest biomass supply model for a demonstration cogeneration project in Chile2010Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Although there is a great forest biomass potential in Chile and bioenergy could become a relevant energy industry in the country, its development has been prevented mainly by the lack of proper business models that can fit into the Chilean reality.

    Chilean forestry sector is characterized by small-scale ownership, a situation that requires the implementation of associative business models to provide a reliable supply for a cogeneration plant. Currently, small owners of biomass resources are not interested in developing bioenergy projects since they do not have enough feedstock to make a profitable project by their own. On the other hand, industries and project developers are not attracted to develop such projects because they do not have a secure and reliable long-term biomass supply. This is a vicious circle hard to break just leaving the market act by itself.

    The present project presents the development of a supply chain model for a small demonstration CHP plant located in Chiloé Island. The idea of this 2MWel installation is to promote these types of projects, that can provide heat and power to processing industries located nearby the biomass resource and replace conventional fuels currently used. According to calculations made, the amount of feedstock needed is available in a short distance from the energy demand point, which was ratified by a field trip made to the chosen plant site.

    The proposed business model to supply the plant was a cooperative model, based on the formation of a forest-owner cooperation. This model was chosen in order to empower small owners and provide them the appropriate management and technical tools to improve their income and quality of life by developing a sustainable and profitable business. There are several successful international experiences with this type of business model and also there are some small initiatives in the country that can be taken as a starting point for a novel industry in the energy sector.

    Since the Chilean energy matrix is strongly dominated by imported fossil fuels, it is only logical that the country should follow the path of developing its renewable energy sources and biomass is one of the most promising alternatives currently technically and economically feasible.

  • 141.
    Mazzaro de Freitas, Flávio Luiz
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Sugarcane Expansion: Land Use Changes and Social Impacts in the São Paulo State, Brazil2012Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    There is a strong concern about the environmental and social impacts ­­­of land use changes caused by sugarcane expansion. This research aims to assess the land use changes caused by sugarcane expansion in the State of São Paulo in the last five years, as well as predicting land use changes in the coming years. In addition, this research evaluates the social impacts of sugarcane expansion. The assessment of land use changes was made through GIS analysis. First, the changes during the last five years were evaluated. Based on this information, the land use changes for the coming years were estimated. The social impacts of sugarcane expansion were evaluated by studying the correlation between Human Development Index (HDI) and the sugarcane expansion. The results confirm that sugarcane crop expanded about 1.85 million hectares between 2003 and 2008. About 62% of this expansion replaced areas used for agricultural crop in 2003, and about 34% replaced areas used for pasture in 2003. Three scenarios were created in order to estimate sugarcane expansion in the coming years. In the first scenario, sugarcane would expand about 0.9 million hectares in three years; in the second scenario, 1.1 million hectares in four years; and in the third scenario, 1.4 million hectares in six years. In each scenario, about 70% of the expansion would take place in areas used for agricultural crops in 2003, and 40% in areas used for pasture in 2003. The sugarcane expansion caused a significant and positive impact on the income dimension of HDI for regions with a very low level of development. For regions of medium and high level of development, the HDI impact was not significant. In addition, a slightly negative impact on the longevity dimension of HDI was observed.

  • 142.
    Mengistu, Azemeraw Tadesse
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Modeling and Analysis of Long-Term Shifts in Bioenergy Use-With Special Reference to Ethiopia: Improving Sustainable Development2013Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Ethiopia is one of the sub-Saharan Africa countries whose energy depends on traditional use of biomass such as wood, charcoal, agricultural residues and animal dung. The traditional use of biomass mainly wood and charcoal leads the country to massive deforestation and forest degradation. Negative environmental impacts from poorly managed municipal solid waste are also serious problems in the country. Moreover, there is a wide range of fossil fuels demand in the country fully covered by importing which results to a significant expenditure from the country’s budget. This study investigates the long-term shifts in bioenergy use of the country and evaluates the expected social, environmental and economical implications. For this purpose, three scenarios are formulated within a timeframe that goes from 2013 to 2030. The baseline scenario assumes the existing energy practices of the country would undergo no significant change in the future while the moderate shift and high shift scenarios consider the long-term shifts in bioenergy use with and without considering constraints respectively. In this context, long-term shifts means: transition from traditional use of biomass to efficient and modern in the household sector, biofuels deployment in the transport sector, introduction of agricultural residues as a fuel for cement production, and electricity generation from bagasse and municipal solid waste. To model and analyze the scenarios, the long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) software tool is used. Taking the results of high shift scenario by 2030, the use of improved wood stoves and fuel switch stoves could save 65 million tons of wood. The foreign currency saving from using biofuels and agricultural residues as fossil fuels substitute would reach to 674 million USD. The greenhouse gas emissions reduction is equivalent to 46 million tons of CO2e which is about 18.4% of the CO2e abatement target of the country for 2030. The corresponding revenue from carbon trading schemes would reach to 231 million USD. Electricity generation from bagasse and municipal solid waste would be 3,672 GWh that is around 3.7% of the total electricity generation target for 2030.

  • 143.
    Moreira da Silva, Ricardo
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    De Queirós, J.R.
    Wind power in Brazil: a sustainable energy2009In: Proceedings of the 9th IASTED European Conference on Power and Energy Systems, EuroPES 2009, 2009, p. 154-161Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this article we present the wind power as renewable energy and discuss the benefits and difficulties of its use in Brazil. It is an exploratory study since there are many studies on the technology of generating energy through wind, but there are little discussion about the benefits and impacts of its use applied to Brazil. Thus, to support the theoretical basis, we adopted the approach of survey and we seek in Science Direct all articles written -between 2007 until now in Europe to set up theoretical knowledge base. The data collection was made in other journals and websites to close the gaps of each topic and make a direct application to Brazil. Thus, this paper is a survey on the use and prospects of wind energy in Brazil. After a short theoretical introduction involving the issue of sustainable energy, our method was to describe the prospects for use in growth, benefits of using wind power and the need for appropriate policies, when considering its use in Brazil. We conclude that despite many difficulties today, the Brazilian government began to organize to take more consistent actions to promote the development of the promising wind sector.

  • 144.
    Moreira da Silva, Ricardo
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Mendes Primo, Marcos André
    Universidade Federal de Pernambuco.
    Gómez, Maria Fernanda
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Searching For Sustainable Energy: A New Analytical Model2009Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 145.
    Morfeldt, Johannes
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Tools for Evaluating Energy Efficiency of Steel Production: Lessons from Sweden and Europe2014Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The European Union faces challenges related to climate change, security of energy supply, and competitiveness of European industries. Energy efficiency indicators are required for monitoring and controlling the effectiveness of policies such as the recently endorsed Energy Efficiency Directive. This thesis aims at assessing whether traditionally used energy efficiency indicators capture the development of energy efficiency in the iron and steel sector. The study is based on results from two statistical methods: a top-down, i.e. Malmquist productivity index, and a bottom-up, i.e. partial least squares regression.

    The specific energy consumption (the indicator representing the sector within the Odyssee energy efficiency index) was scrutinised together with associated indicators based on economic production using the aforementioned statistical methods. The results demonstrated the specific energy consumption does not capture the characteristics of the value chain of steel products. Therefore, it is not sufficient for capturing the energy efficiency of iron and steel industries. Previous studies suggest using indicators based on economic production (e.g. value added) since they represent the value chain to larger degree. However, the value creation process of companies belonging to larger international groups cannot be estimated reliably. Furthermore, the trends of both types of indicators tend to be highly influenced by structural changes, veiling the actual efficiency development.

    Energy use statistics published by international organisations were also compared for the Swedish case. The results demonstrated that international organisations use different methodologies for allocating energy use statistics between consumption and transformation sectors. The method has significant implications on the trends observed, if based on openly available statistics.

    This thesis complements previous research by reviewing implications of traditional energy efficiency indicators based on company data, national statistics or openly available statistics and contributes with insights essential for future efforts towards improving energy efficiency indicators for the steel industry.

  • 146.
    Morfeldt, Johannes
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Tracking Emissions Reductions and Energy Efficiency in the Steel Industry2017Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The iron and steel industry has become increasingly globalised. Market conditions are also changing and de-carbonisation of production is challenging.

    The objective of this thesis is to assess how energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions reductions can be promoted and effectively monitored in the steel industry. The thesis contributes with analyses based on the Malmquist Productivity Index for a top-down analysis of the energy efficiency of EU Member States’ iron and steel production, and Partial Least Squares regression for bottom-up assessments of different monitoring tools. The thesis also contributes with a scrap availability assessment module to enhance the energy system model ETSAP-TIAM.

    The first phase of the research showed that future production needs to shift towards innovative low-CO2 technologies even when all available recycled material is fully used. Techniques using carbon capture and storage (CCS) as well as hydrogen-based technologies can be expected to become economically viable under tightened climate policies.

    The second phase of the research showed that current indicators are insufficient. System boundaries of energy use and emissions data do not align with production statistics. Indicators based on energy use or emissions in relation to production in physical terms may be useful to track specific processes. However, current indicators fail to reflect the companies’ product mix. Enhanced energy and climate indicators that adjust for the product mix provide better estimates while failing to reflect the increasing globalisation.

    Effective monitoring of industrial transformation will be increasingly important as pressure from climate policy via global CO2-pricing is unlikely in the short term. Current or enhanced indicators do not fully capture industrial transformation and are not recommended. Future research should focus on defining indicators to estimate energy use and emissions along industrial value chains in climate policy contexts.

  • 147.
    Morfeldt, Johannes
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Nijs, Wouter
    Vision on Technology (VITO).
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Shaping our energy system - combining European modelling expertise: Case Study: How to decarbonize European steel production? A global perspective2013Report (Other academic)
  • 148.
    Morfeldt, Johannes
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Nijs, Wouter
    VITO, Mol, Belgium and JRC, Petten, The Netherlands.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    The Future of Global Steel Production: An Energy and Climate Modelling Exercise using ETSAP-TIAM and SAAM2013Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper addresses the question of how climate change mitigation policies may influence future iron and steel technology deployment and scrap use using ETSAP-TIAM and a newly developed Scrap Availability Assessment Model (SAAM). Theoretically, a 90% recycling rate of steel is possible with low energy requirements and reduced CO2 emissions. However, even if all available scrap is used, at a global level, production from iron ore would still be needed in the long-term. Saturation of the per capita cumulative in-use of steel products may cause the total steel demand to stagnate as from 2040 - 2060. Even in this scenario, half of the steel production is iron ore based in 2050. Furthermore, hydrogen based steel becomes the primary technology option together with production from scrap in a scenario where Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is not available. A climate policy to keep radiative forcing within the 3.5 W/m2 limit that allows for CCS doubles the price of iron, makes the price of scrap go up with 50% and increases the price of steel from lower than 600 USD per tonne to some 800 USD per tonne. However, a large share of these price increases is due to carbon prices rather than additional production costs. We conclude that global climate change mitigation policies do not impact the use of scrap, whereas they do have an impact on technology choice for steel production. The results on technology choice indicated that energy efficiency improvements of current processes will not be enough and that there is a need for developing new techniques with lower climate impact.

  • 149.
    Morfeldt, Johannes
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Nijs, Wouter
    Vision on Technology (VITO) and Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    The impact of climate targets on future steel production - an analysis based on a global energy system model2014In: Journal of Cleaner Production, ISSN 0959-6526, E-ISSN 1879-1786, Vol. 103, p. 469-482Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper addresses how a global climate target may influence iron and steel production technology deployment and scrap use. A global energy system model, ETSAP-TIAM, was used and a Scrap Availability Assessment Model (SAAM) was developed to analyse the relation between steel demand, recycling and the availability of scrap and their implications for steel production technology choices. Steel production using recycled materials has a continuous growth and is likely to be a major route for steel production in the long run. However, as the global average of in-use steel stock increases up to the current average stock of the industrialised economies, global steel demand keeps growing and stagnates only after 2050. Due to high steel demand levels and scarcity of scrap, more than 50% of the steel production in 2050 will still have to come from virgin materials. Hydrogen-based steel production could become a major technology option for production from virgin materials, particularly in a scenario where Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is not available. Imposing a binding climate target will shift the crude steel price to approximately 500 USD per tonne in the year 2050, provided that CCS is available. However, the increased prices are induced by COprices rather than inflated production costs. It is concluded that a global climate target is not likely to influence the use of scrap, whereas it shall have an impact on the price of scrap. Finally, the results indicate that energy efficiency improvements of current processes will only be sufficient to meet the climate target in combination with CCS. New innovative techniques with lower climate impact will be vital for mitigating climate change.

  • 150.
    Morfeldt, Johannes
    et al.
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Energy and Climate Studies, ECS.
    Capturing energy efficiency in European iron and steel production: comparing specific energy consumption and Malmquist productivity index2014In: Energy Efficiency, ISSN 1570-646X, E-ISSN 1570-6478, Vol. 7, no 6, p. 955-972Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    European iron and steel producers are working towards increased energy efficiency to meet requirements set by European policies such as the Energy Efficiency Directive. In this study, we show that the Specific Energy Consumption (SEC), representing the iron and steel sector in the Odyssee Energy Efficiency Index (ODEX) - the tool for policy evaluation recommended by the European Commission, is insufficient for capturing energy efficiency trends of European iron and steel production. European producers focus on niche markets, diversifying and specialising their set of products well beyond crude steel, which is the benchmark product for deriving the SEC. We compare the SEC with the more comprehensive Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) methodology, which is calculated using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) techniques. An evaluation of energy efficiency trends during 2000 – 2010 showed that the SEC overestimated energy efficiency improvements for European steel industries, while underestimating the improvements achieved by Swedish steel industries. A comparison between the SEC, the MPI/DEA approach and energy intensity based on value added in the Swedish case provides further insight to the methodological differences between the approaches. We conclude that the approaches highlight different aspects of energy efficiency analyses, and that the SEC is not sufficient for capturing energy efficiency of steel industries.

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