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  • 1.
    Chengxi, Liu
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Understanding the Impacts of Weather and Climate Change on Travel Behaviour2016Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Human behaviour produces massive greenhouse gas emissions, which trigger climate change and more unpredictable weather conditions. The fluctuation of daily weather corresponds to variations of everyday travel behaviour. This influence, although is less noticeable, can have a strong impact on the transport system. Specifically, the climate in Sweden is becoming warmer in the recent 10 years. However, it is largely unknown to what extent the change of travel behaviour would respond to the changing weather. Understanding these issues would help analysts and policy makers incorporate local weather and climate within our policy design and infrastructure management.

    The thesis contains eight papers exploring the weather and climate impacts on individual travel behaviour, each addressing a subset of this topic. Paper I explores the weather impact on individual’s mode choice decisions. In paper II and III, individual’s daily activity time, number of trips/trip chains, travel time and mode shares are jointly modelled. The results highlight the importance of modelling activity-travel variables for different trip purposes respectively. Paper IV develops a namely nested multivariate Tobit model to model activity time allocation trade-offs. In paper V, the roles of weather on trip chaining complexity is explored. A thermal index is introduced to better approximate the effects of the thermal environment. In paper VI, the role of subjective weather perception is investigated. Results confirm that individuals with different socio-demographics would have different subjective weather perception even given similar weather conditions. Paper VII derives the marginal effects of weather variables on transport CO2 emissions. The findings show more CO2 emissions due to the warmer climate in the future. Paper VIII summaries the existing findings in relations between weather variability and travel behaviour, and critically assesses the methodological issues in previous studies. 

  • 2.
    Chengxi, Liu
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science. Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Teknikringen 10, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Sun, Y.
    Chen, Y.
    Susilo, Yusak
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    The effect of residential housing policy on car ownership and trip chaining behaviour in Hangzhou, China2018In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, ISSN 1361-9209, E-ISSN 1879-2340, Vol. 62, p. 125-138Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    China has recently initialised affordable housing policies to provide low rent housings for medium and low income households aiming to satisfy the growing demand in the housing market. The travel behaviour of residents in these two different types of housing is likely to differ, since public housing tenants have a limited choice of residential location, as the location of low-rent housing is fixed, while residents in commodity housing are able to take their travel patterns into account in choosing their housing location. Therefore, this paper investigates the differences in car ownership and trip chaining behaviour arising from living in different types of residential housing. The self-selection bias caused by the differences in the observed individual and household characteristics is partially controlled by a propensity score matching approach. The study further considers the endogenous effect of car ownership on travel chaining behaviour, thus controlling for the self-selection bias at car ownership level. The results show that residents in private commodity housing are more likely to own a car than those in low-rent housing with similar individual and household characteristics. Different life cycle stages play a vital role in car ownership after self-selection in residential housing has been taken into account. Living in private commodity housing has a direct negative effect on trip chaining complexity, after controlling for endogenous car ownership, although this effect is offset by the tendency for private commodity housing owners to do complex trip chaining because they have one or more cars.

  • 3.
    Chengxi, Liu
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Susilo, Yusak O.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Anders, Karlström
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Estimating changes in transport CO2 emissions due to changes in weather and climate in SwedenManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    There is a considerable body of studies on the relationship between daily transport activities and CO2 emissions. However, how these emissions vary in different weather conditions within and between the seasons of the year is largely unknown. Because individual activity–travel patterns are not static but vary in different weather conditions, it is immensely important to understand how CO2 emissions vary due to the change of weather. Using Swedish National Travel Survey data, with emission factors calculated through the European emission factor model ARTEMIS, this study is a first attempt to derive the amount of CO2 emission changes subject to the change of weather conditions. A series of econometric models was used to model travel behaviour variables that are crucial for influencing individual CO2 emissions. The marginal effects of weather variables on travel behaviour variables were derived. The results show an increase of individual CO2 emissions in a warmer climate and in more extreme temperature conditions, whereas increasing precipitation amounts and snow depths show limited effects on individual CO2 emissions. It is worth noting that the change in CO2 emissions in the scenario of a warmer climate and a more extreme temperature tends to be greater than the sum of changes in CO2 emissions in each individual scenario. Given that a warmer climate and more extreme weather could co-occur more frequently in the future, this result suggests even greater individual CO2 emissions than expected in such a future climate.

  • 4.
    Chengxi, Liu
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Susilo, Yusak O.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Anders, Karlström
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Weather Variability and Travel Behaviour - What Do We Know and What Do We Not KnowManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Given that severe weather conditions is becoming more and more frequent, understanding the roles of weathers in influencing individual’s daily activity-travel pattern is important. Whilst some of previously rare events, such as heavy rain, unpredictable snow, higher temperature, less clear differences between seasons etc., would become more common, it is still largely unknown how individual would change and adapt their travel pattern in future climate conditions. Because of this concern, the number of researches on weather and travel behaviour has been increased dramatically in the recent decades. Most of those empirical evidences, however, have not been adopted in cost-benefit analysis (CBA), which serves as the main tool for policy evaluation and project selection by stakeholders. This study summarizes the existing findings in relations between weather variability and travel behaviour, and critically assesses the methodological issues in those studies. Several further research directions are identified and suggested for bridging the gap between empirical evidence and current practice in CBA.

  • 5.
    Chengxi, Liu
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Susilo, Yusak O.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Karlström, Anders
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science.
    Estimating changes in transport CO2 emissions due to changes in weather and climate in Sweden2016In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, ISSN 1361-9209, E-ISSN 1879-2340, Vol. 49, p. 172-187Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is a considerable body of studies on the relationship between daily transport activities and CO2 emissions. However, how these emissions vary in different weather conditions within and between the seasons of the year is largely unknown. Because individual activity–travel patterns are not static but vary in different weather conditions, it is immensely important to understand how CO2 emissions vary due to the change of weather. Using Swedish National Travel Survey data, with emission factors calculated through the European emission factor model ARTEMIS, this study is a first attempt to derive the amount of CO2 emission changes subject to the change of weather conditions. A series of econometric models was used to model travel behaviour variables that are crucial for influencing individual CO2 emissions. The marginal effects of weather variables on travel behaviour variables were derived. The results show an increase of individual CO2 emissions in a warmer climate and in more extreme temperature conditions, whereas increasing precipitation amounts and snow depths show limited effects on individual CO2 emissions. It is worth noting that the change in CO2 emissions in the scenario of a warmer climate and a more extreme temperature tends to be greater than the sum of changes in CO2 emissions in each individual scenario. Given that a warmer climate and more extreme weather could co-occur more frequently in the future, this result suggests even greater individual CO2 emissions than expected in such a future climate.

  • 6.
    Chengxi, Liu
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Susilo, Yusak O.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Karlström, Anders
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
    Jointly modelling individual’s daily activity-travel time use andmode share by a nested multivariate Tobit model system2015In: Transportation Research Procedia: 21st International Symposium on Transportation and Traffic Theory, Elsevier, 2015, Vol. 9, p. 71-89Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Understanding mechanisms underlie the individual’s daily time allocations is very important to understand the variability ofindividual’s time-space constraints and to forecast his/her daily activity participation. At most of previous studies, activity timeallocation was viewed as allocating a continuous quantity (daily time budget) into multiple discrete alternatives (i.e. variousactivities and trips to engage with). However, few researches considered the influence of travel time that needs to be spent onreaching the activity location. Moreover, travel time itself is influenced by individuals’ mode choice. This can lead to an over- orunder-estimation of particular activity time location. In order to explicitly include the individual’s travel time and mode choiceconsiderations in activity time allocation modelling, in this study, a nested multivariate Tobit model is proposed. This proposedmodel can handle: 1. Corner solution problem (i.e. the present of substantial amount of zero observations); 2. Time allocationtrade-offs among different types of activities (which tends to be ignored in previous studies); 3. Travel is treated as a deriveddemand of activity participation (i.e. travel time and mode share are automatically censored, and are not estimated, ifcorresponding activity duration is censored). The model is applied on a combined dataset of Swedish national travel survey(NTS) and SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) weather record. Individuals’ work and non-work activitydurations, travel time and mode shares are jointly modelled as dependent variables. The influences of time-locationcharacteristics, individual and household socio demographics and weather characteristics on each dependent variable areexamined. The estimation results show a strong work and non-work activity time trade-offs due to the individual’s time-spaceconstraints. Evidences on a potential positive utility of travel time added on non-work activity time allocation in the Swedish case,are also found. Meanwhile, the results also show a consistent mode choice preference for a given individual. The estimatednested multivariate Tobit model provides a superior prediction, in terms of the deviation of the predicted value against the actualvalue conditional on the correct prediction regarding censored and non-censored, compared to mutually independent Tobitmodels. However, the nested multivariate Tobit model does not necessarily have a better prediction for model componentsregarding non-work related activities.

  • 7.
    Chengxi, Liu
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Susilo, Yusak O.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Nursitihazlin, Ahmad Termida
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Subjective perception towards uncertainty on weather conditions and its impact on out-of-home leisure activity participation decisionsManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Weather is fundamentally a ‘subjective’ perception rather than an objective measure that affects individual’s everyday travel decisions. This study uses data from a four-wave travel diary survey and aims to answer two research questions, i.e. 1. How individuals from different socio-demographic groups perceive weather. 2. How subjective weather perceptions affect individuals’ leisure activity participation decisions. Subjective weather perception and leisure activity participation are modelled in panel static/dynamic ordered Probit models. The results show that the reference thermal environment in general corresponds to the historical mean of the thermal environment. The effects of objective weather measures on subjective weather perception vary substantially between individuals. Moreover, the effect of subjective weather perception on leisure activity participation is non-linear and asymmetric. Only “very bad weather” and “very good weather” significantly influence the leisure activity participation. The effect of “very bad weather” also varies significantly between individuals. The intra-individual heterogeneity in the effect of “very good weather” has a smaller magnitude than that in the effect of “very bad weather”.

  • 8. Lin, X.
    et al.
    Susilo, Yusak
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, System Analysis and Economics.
    Shao, C.
    Chengxi, Liu
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    The implication of road toll discount for mode choice: Intercity travel during the chinese spring festival holiday2018In: Sustainability, ISSN 2071-1050, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 10, no 8, article id 2700Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Intercity travel congestion during the main national holidays takes place every year at different places around the world. Charge reduction measurements on existing toll roads have been implemented to promote an efficient use of the expressways and to reduce congestion on the public transit networks. However, some of these policies have had negative effects. A more comprehensive understanding of the determinants of holiday intercity travel patterns is critical for better policymaking. This paper aims to investigate the effectiveness of the road toll discount policy on mode choice behavior for intercity travel. A mixed logit model is developed to model the mode choices of intercity travelers, which is estimated based on survey data about intercity journeys from Beijing during the 2017 Chinese Spring Festival holiday. The policy impact is further discussed by elasticity and scenario simulations. The results indicate that the expressway toll discount does increase the car use and decrease the public transit usage. Given the decreased toll on expressways, the demand tends to shift from car to public transit, in an order of coach, high-speed rail, conventional rail, and airplane. When it comes to its effect on socio-demographic groups, men and lower-income travelers are identified to be more likely to change mode in response to variation of road toll. Finally, policy effectiveness is found to vary for travelers in different travel distance groups. Conclusions provide useful insights on road pricing management.

  • 9.
    Susilo, Yusak O.
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, System Analysis and Economics.
    Chengxi, Liu
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science. Swedish Natl Rd & Transport Res Inst, VTI, Teknikringen 10, S-10044 Stockholm, Sweden..
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science. Swedish Natl Rd & Transport Res Inst, VTI, Teknikringen 10, S-10044 Stockholm, Sweden..
    The changes of activity-travel participation across gender, life-cycle, and generations in Sweden over 30years2019In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, Vol. 46, no 3, p. 793-818Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study utilised the Swedish national travel survey covering a period of over 30years. We investigated the long-term trends in activity-travel patterns of individuals in different life-cycle stages and generations using cohort analysis and a path model. The main findings are summarised as follows. The women, including mothers, in younger generations have become more active in out-of-home non-work activities and their trip chaining has become more complex, compared to their male counterparts. While men are still driving more than women, the gap is decreasing in the younger generations. The gender difference among teenagers in terms of out-of-home time use diminishes in younger generations. Teenagers of younger generations spend more of their leisure time inside their homes, possibly due to the rise of online activities and gaming and more time-consuming school trips, the latter attributed to changes in school choice policy. Older adults travel more, possibly due to better paratransit transport service, supported by better health services.

  • 10.
    Termida, Nursitihazlin Ahmad
    et al.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering. Univ Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, Fac Civil & Environm Engn, Smart Driving Res Ctr, Batu Pahat 86400, Johor, Malaysia.
    Susilo, Yusak
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, System Analysis and Economics.
    Franklin, Joel P.
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, System Analysis and Economics.
    Chengxi, Liu
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Civil and Architectural Engineering, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.
    Understanding seasonal variation in individual's activity participation and trip generation by using four consecutive two-week travel diary2018In: Travel Behaviour & Society, ISSN 2214-367X, E-ISSN 2214-3688, Vol. 12, p. 52-63Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper explores the interactions between travel demand, time allocation and mode choice in different seasons by jointly modeling the work and/or study, routine and leisure activity-travel engagements of 67 individuals in Stockholm, Sweden. A longitudinal panel two-week travel diary data collected in four consecutive waves over a span of seven months period that covers all four different seasons; autumn, winter, spring and summer, were analysed by using simultaneous Tobit models. The model was applied to explore the interactions among each activity-travel indicator, and individuals' unique characteristics and endogeneity in activity-travel engagements between different seasons were also considered in the model system. The results of models reveal clear trade-offs between mandatory activities (work and/or study) and non-mandatory activities (routine and leisure), regardless of any seasons, although the magnitudes vary between seasons. There is also a positive mutual endogeneity relationship between number of trips and activity duration within the same activity type. The trade-offs between work and/or study trips towards routine and leisure trips are larger in winter and spring respectively, than in other seasons. It is also found that mode effects on travel time for conducting mandatory activity are much larger in spring than in other seasons. However, the effects of public transport and slow modes on travel time for leisure activities are much larger in summer than in other seasons.

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