Notwithstanding current heavy dependence on gas-fired electricity generation in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), hydropower is expected to play an essential role in improving electricity access in the region. Expansion planning of electricity infrastructure is critical to support investment and maintaining balanced consumer electricity prices. Variations in water availability due to a changing climate could leave hydro infrastructure stranded or result in underutilization of available resources. In this study, we develop a framework consisting of long-term models for electricity supply and water systems management, to assess the vulnerability of potential expansion plans to the effects of climate change. We find that the most resilient EAPP rollout strategy corresponds to a plan optimised for a slightly wetter climate compared to historical trends. This study demonstrates that failing to climate-proof infrastructure investments can result in significant electricity price fluctuations in selected countries (Uganda & Tanzania) while others, such as Egypt, are less vulnerable.

Increasing energy access in emerging economies has played an important role to maintain or achieve desirable social and economic development targets. As a consequence, the growing energy requirements need policy instruments to ensure energy supply for future generations. The literature reports many studies with different approaches to model and test policy measures in the energy sector, however few energy-related studies for Bolivia are available. This paper addresses this knowledge gap, representing the first national level energy demand model and projections for Bolivia. The model use demographic, economic, technology and policy trends with a pragmatic model structure that combines bottom-up and top-down modelling. The scenario analysis has a particular focus on alternatives for energy savings, energy mix diversification and air quality. Three scenarios were analysed: Energy Savings, Fuel Substitution and the aggregate effects in a Combined scenario. The reference scenario results show the overall energy consumption grows 134% in 2035 compared to 2012 with an annual average growth of 3.8%. The final energy demand in the energy savings scenario is 8.5% lower than the Reference scenario, 1.5% lower in the fuel substitution scenario and 9.4% lower in the combined Scenario. The aggregate impact of both energy savings and fuel substitution measures leads to potential avoided emissions of 25.84 million Tons of CO2 equivalent in the model horizon 2012-2035.

The UN's Sustainable Energy For All initiative has made universal access to energy by 2030 a key target. Countries wherein budgets are constrained and institutions stressed are faced with the challenge of further extending energy services and doing so significantly. To meet this goal for the power sector in a cost-effective way, governments have to consider the deployment of a mix of stand-alone, mini-grid and grid-based solutions. To help inform analysis, planning and the decision process, this paper presents a simple, transparent, least-cost model for the electrification of rural areas. The approach builds on four key parameters, namely: (i) target level and quality of energy access, (ii) population density, (iii) local grid connection characteristics and (iv) local energy resources availability and technology cost. From an application perspective, this work can be used both for (1) fast assessments of specific energy access projects, and (2) to inform more complex regional studies using a geo-referencing software to analyze the results. Such applications are presented in the results using country case studies developed for Nigeria and Ethiopia. These show how the strategy for expanding energy access may vary significantly both between and within given regions of energy-poor countries.

Africa is a resource-rich continent but lacks the required power infrastructure. Efforts such as the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All and U.S. President Obama's Power Africa initiatives aim to facilitate much needed investment. However, no systematic national and regional investment outlook is available to analysts. This paper examines indicative scenarios of power plant investments based on potential for electricity trade. OSeMOSYS, a cost-optimization tool for long-term energy planning, is used to develop least cost system configurations. The electricity supply systems of forty-seven countries are modelled individually and linked via trade links to form TEMBA (The Electricity Model Base for Africa). A scenario comparison up to 2040 shows that an enhanced grid network can alter Africa's generation mix and reduce electricity generation cost. The insights have important investment, trade and policy implications, as specific projects can be identified as of major significance, and thus receive political support and funding.

Access to clean and affordable modern energy is crucial to fostering social and economic development and to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Efficient policy frameworks and effective electrification programs are required in order to ensure that people are electrified in a sustainable manner. These programs differ from country to country depending on geographic and socioeconomic conditions. Electrification planning process must consider the geographical characteristics of the resources as well as the spatial dimension of social and economic drivers of energy demand in order to find the most optimal energy access solution. Geographical theory and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in particular can play a significant role in electrification planning, since they are capable of managing the data needed in the decision making process and may integrate and assess all possible options. This paper focuses on considering these characteristics by applying a recently developed GIS based methodology to inform electrification planning and strategies in Ethiopia. The paper illustrates two major aspects of energy planning; 1.) how the optimal electrification mix is influenced by a range of parameters including population density, existing and planned transmission networks and power plants, economic activities, tariffs for grid-based electricity, technology costs for mini-grid and off-grid systems, and fuel costs for consumers and 2.) how the electrification mix differs from location to location. For a certain level of energy access, on-grid connections would be optimal for the majority of the new connections in Ethiopia; grid extension constitutes the lowest cost option for approximately 93% of the newly electrified population in this modelling effort with 2030 as time horizon. However, there are some remote areas with low population density where a mini-grid (ca. 6%) or a stand-alone solution (ca. 1%) are the most economic options. Depending on local resource availability, these systems deploy varied combinations of solar, wind, hydro and diesel technologies.

According to the latest Global Tracking Framework (2015), 18% of the global and 57% of the African population live without access to electricity services a key impediment towards social and economic growth. Accelerating access to electricity requires, inter alia, strategies and programmes that effectively address and account for the geographical, infrastructural and socioeconomic characteristics of a country or region. This paper focuses on considering these characteristics by developing a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based methodology to inform electrification planning and strategies. The methodology is applied to Nigeria in order to identify the optimal mix of electrification options, ranging from grid extensions to mini-grid and off-grid solutions. The case study illustrates how this optimal mix is influenced by a range of parameters including population density, existing and planned transmission networks and power plants, economic activities, tariffs for grid-based electricity, technology costs for mini-grid and off-grid systems and fuel costs for consumers. For a certain level of energy access, on-grid connections would be optimal for the majority of the new connections in Nigeria; grid extension constitutes the lowest cost option for approximately 86% of the newly electrified population in this modelling effort with 2030 as the time horizon. However, there are some remote areas with low population densities where a mini-grid or a stand-alone solution are the most economic options; deploying some combination of solar, wind, hydro and diesel technologies depending on the locational resource availability.

In the coming decades, demand for electricity will increase considerably on the African continent. Investment in power generation, transmission and distribution is necessary to meet this demand. In this paper a cost-optimization tool is used to assess investment opportunities under varying scenarios of GDP growth, electricity trade and CO2 taxation. Business as usual fuel price outlooks are assumed, and related assumptions are relatively conservative. The goal is to find if there are economic indications that renewable energy might play a significant role in the expansion of the African electricity system. The results show that there is potential of renewable energy (RE) resources to have a significant share in the generation mix. By 2030, 42% and 55% of the total generation is powered by renewables in the high and low GDP scenarios respectively. Promotion of interregional trade can assist in unlocking RE potential across the continent, such as hydro in Central Africa and wind in East Africa; these regions are projected to be net exporters of electricity. Additionally, generation by off-grid technologies increases over time, reaching 12% of the total generation by 2030 in Sub-Saharan Africa.