Open this publication in new window or tab >>2024 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Other academic)
Abstract [en]
This paper studies the problem of forecasting electricity prices in continuous short-term electricity markets, specifically focusing on the intraday volume-weighted average price of hourly products in the last three hours of trading. Two state-of-the-art recurrent neural network architectures, namely the Temporal Fusion Transformer and the DeepAR network, are compared against well-established statistical models, such as the Linear Regression-LR, ARX, and SARIMAX models, concerning their forecast accuracy. Historical electricity market and grid data from European Energy Exchanges were used to create a forecasting dataset and train and compare five different model structures stemming from traditional statistical methods or contemporary deep learning-based counterparts.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET), 2024
Keywords
Electricity trading, intraday market, machine learning, price forecasting
National Category
Energy Systems Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-362690 (URN)10.1049/icp.2024.4630 (DOI)2-s2.0-105002477017 (Scopus ID)
Conference
14th Mediterranean Conference on Power Generation Transmission, Distribution and Energy Conversion, MEDPOWER 2024, Athens, Greece, November 3-6, 2024
Note
QC 20250428
2025-04-232025-04-232025-06-03Bibliographically approved