The reliability of rail freight on mixed-traffic lines in Europe has become an increasingly critical issue in achieving modal shift objectives. However, current knowledge about service reliability risks on such lines remains limited, and existing practices fail to address vulnerabilities stemming from heterogeneous dispatching priorities. This study examines the prevailing capacity allocation and traffic management practices on mixed-traffic lines to identify sources of reliability risks. Based on these findings, the study proposes a method to quantify reliability risks through an ex-post assessment using realized operational data. The method is applied to a case study focusing on the Swedish section of the Scandinavian-Mediterranean freight corridor. A micro-simulation model is employed as the source for realization data, exploring scenarios with different prevailing traffic management policies, variations in planned top speeds for freight services in mixed traffic conditions, and cases with enhanced train dynamics. The results show that adopting a real-time traffic management policy that considers the punctuality of conflicting trains as a criterion can, under certain conditions, reduce freight reliability risks. However, path planning practices, particularly when resolving scheduling conflicts, remain the dominant factor compromising service reliability. The proposed approach demonstrates its value as a decision-support tool, equipping policymakers and traffic planners with the means to assess freight reliability risks and refine their strategies accordingly.

Single-track line railway operations are complex due to their reliance on crossings, where trains must pass at specific locations within constrained time windows. Capacity utilisation can be assessed using different methods, but variations in how crossings and operational dependencies are accounted for may lead to differing results. This study analyses the impact of including crossing stations in capacity utilisation assessments and examines the effect of enhanced interlocking functionality, specifically simultaneous entry. Through a case study, we explore how different methods account for crossing station operations and thus influence capacity estimates. The results highlight the importance of infrastructure design and properly accounting for crossing station aspects, as well as the marginal benefits of simultaneous entry depending on the timetable. These insights contribute to an improved single-track line capacity analysis, leading to more informed railway planning and investment decisions.

The digital Twin (DT) is a technology that can be used to create a virtual representation or model of any physical entity. With the help of DT it is therefore possible to optimise the performance of the virtualised physical system and have a direct impact on increasing its competitiveness, efficiency and productivity, as the data flow can also be bidirectional. The DT of rail level crossings (RLCs) holds great potential for increasing rail safety. With the introduction of digitised components of the railway signalling system, the development of a suitable DT of RLCs is of great importance. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to define the basic requirements for the DT development of RLCs. The paper first analyses the past practises in the development of DTs in railway applications. Furthermore, essential input parameters of RLCs are defined, including the time of closing and opening of RLCs, the warning time, and the operating and blocking times of RLCs. With the aim of reducing the waiting time of road users in the era of train automation and digitalisation, the optimal location of balises and train speed should also be considered. The defined requirements and parameters form the essential elements of the framework for the development of the digital RLC twin.

Short-haul Flight (SHF) bans aim to stimulate the air-to-rail modal shift, consequently curbing the aviation sector’s environmental impact. We investigate the potential implications of various SHF ban policy designs on CO2-equivalent (CO2e) emissions, passengers’ travel times and rail capacity under the assumption of full air-to-rail modal substitution. Ranging from 0.4 Mt to 7.5 Mt CO2e, respectively 0.6% to 12.3% of the emissions of commercial intra-European aviation, the environmental impact of SHF ban policies is shown to be largely dependent on the policy design, namely the affected journey types and rail in-vehicle time thresholds. Our findings underscore the significant challenges of implementing such policies for the longer rail in-vehicle time thresholds and wider geographical scopes associated with noticeable environmental benefits. Despite the marginal impact of SHF ban policies on capacity utilisation in the case study, considerable interventions on rail infrastructure would be required to absorb existing air demand completely while ensuring attractive schedules. The results contribute to the ongoing policy debate, providing actionable insights to support Europe’s ambitious environmental goals in the transport sector.

Efterfrågan i persontrafik på järnväg har växt under flera decennier i takt med utbudsförbättringar genom snabbare tåg, tätare turer och attraktiva priser. Covid-19-pandemin från 2020 innebar ett kraftigt avbräck i utvecklingen. Tågtrafiken återhämtade sig dock relativt snabbt tack vare stor efterfrågan på fritidsresor medan tjänsteresorna fortsatt ligger lägre. 

I den inrikes flygtrafiken finns 2025 enbart kvar 28 % av avgångarna 2019 på de fem stora linjerna. Som jämförelse har utbudet av tågtrafik varit liknande föregående år och även liknande 2019. En större förändring är dock att banarbetet på sträckan Göteborg−Alingsås har lett till försämrat utbud av interregional tågtrafik Göteborg−Stockholm såväl som regionala tåg på grund av begränsad bankapacitet. Färre turer och förlängda restider ger lägre tillgänglighet. Flygbolaget BRA har samtidigt avvecklat sin verksamhet i egen regi och lämnat Bromma flygplats. Flyget har därmed bidragit till en liknande nationell tillgänglighets­försämring som för järnvägens del.

Upphandlad nattågstrafik är sedan 2024 inne i en period av neddragning. Det beror på ökade kostnader och minskat budgetutrymme för bidrag hos Trafikverket. Effekten av minskade subventioner blir därför en tillgänglighetsförsämring mellan norra och södra Sverige.

En studie av veckovariationer visar att vår datainsamling en representativ onsdag ger en god bild av tågutbudet som attraherar både tjänste- och privatresenärer. Flyg- och bussutbudet har dock större utbudsvariationer under veckan, med påtagligt mindre utbud för flyg (främst tjänsteresenärer) och större för långväga buss (främst fritidsresenärer) vid veckosluten.

Pandemin och den efterföljande inflationen har medfört att regionala tågbiljetter blivit billigare i reala termer. Biljetter för privatresenärer i det kommersiella utbudet har däremot stigit i pris.

Sammanfattningsvis har 2025 inneburit en försämrad nationell tillgänglighet mellan Göteborg och Stockholm med både sämre utbud för tåg och sämre utbud för flyg. Efterfrågan är relativt svag på tjänsteresor men stark på privatresor vilket har lett till förändringar i utbudet särskilt för inrikes flyg. Tågets konkurrenssituation med flyg och buss har förändrats radikalt efter covid-19-pandemin och snabbtåg är tydligt marknadsledande i många långväga relationer.

Demand for passenger rail transport has grown for several decades in line with supply improvements through faster trains, more frequent services and attractive prices. The Covid-19 pandemic from 2020 meant a sharp break in development. However, rail transport recovered relatively quickly thanks to high demand for leisure travel, while business travel remains lower. 

In domestic air traffic, only 28% of the 2019 departures remains on the five major routes in 2025. As a comparison, the supply of train traffic has been similar to the previous year and also similar to 2019. A major change, however, is that the track maintenance work on the Gothenburg−Alingsås section has led to a deterioration in the interregional Gothenburg−Stockholm as well as regional services due to limited available capacity. Fewer departures and extended travelling times result in lower accessibility. At the same time, the airline BRA has wound up its operations under its own brand and left Bromma Airport. Aviation has thus contributed to a similar national deterioration in accessibility as for the railways.

Since 2024, tendered night train services have been in a period of reduction. This is due to increased costs and reduced budget space for subsidies at the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket). The effect of reduced subsidies will therefore be a deterioration in accessibility between northern and southern Sweden.

A study of weekly variations shows that our data collection on a representative Wednesday provides a good picture of the train supply that attracts both business and private travellers. However, the flight and coach supply has greater supply variations during the week, with significantly less supply for flights (mainly business travellers) and greater supply for coaches (mainly leisure travellers) at weekends.

The pandemic and the subsequent inflation have meant that regional train tickets have become cheaper in real terms. Tickets for private travellers in the commercial supply, on the other hand, have risen in price.

In summary, 2025 has meant a deterioration in national accessibility between Gothenburg and Stockholm with both a worse supply for trains and a worse supply for flights. Demand is relatively weak for business travel but strong for private travel, which has led to changes in supply, especially for domestic flights. The competitive situation of the train with air and coach has changed radically after the Covid-19 pandemic, and fast trains are clearly the market leader in many interregional relationships.

Footnote: Normalised ticket prices in the report are given in “kr/mil”, which means SEK per 10 km (price level 2024).

Railway level crossings (LCs), as the intersection of road and rail transport, are the weak points in terms of safety, as they are used by different modes of transport. The safety level at LCs can therefore be affected by the behaviour of the users. However, the level of safety can also be affected by failures and errors in the operation of LC equipment. Apart from safety, errors and failures of the LC devices can lead to longer waiting times for road users. As the volume of traffic on rail and road increases, so does the risk that the level of safety will decrease. The increase in traffic volume via LC leads to higher traffic volume on the road and more frequent trains on the rail, which leads to longer waiting times for road users on the LCs. The longer waiting times can disrupt the traffic flow, especially during peak hours when the growing volume of traffic on road and rail increases road user dissatisfaction. Moreover, in the era of Industry 4.0 and Digital Rail, new digital and automated technologies are being introduced to improve rail performance and competitiveness. These technologies are aligned with the LCs and are intended to ensure the efficient operation of LC and the efficient use of LCs by conventional trains as well. To achieve this, a concept is needed that simultaneously monitors and visualises the operation of LC in real time, identifies potential faults and failures of the LC equipment, and updates and monitors the proper operation of LC based on the historical data and information of the operation of LC according to the road traffic volume and the characteristics of the rail traffic and trains. Therefore, in this study, a digital twin system (DT) for rail LC was initiated and built as a concept that can meet the above requirements for proper LC operation in real time. DT of LC includes all components of LC and communication between them to synchronise the operation of LC according to the real-time requirements. The DT system is able to optimise the operation time of LC by monitoring the operation of LC and collecting data to ensure efficient use of LC and reduce unnecessary waiting time for road users. In this paper, the operation time of LCs on Swedish and Taiwanese railways was compared using the developed level crossing optimisation model (OLC). Since the introduction of new signalling concepts requires an improvement of LC operating characteristics and their design, the operating strategies were modelled using the OLC model. The results of the work show that the optimal values of LC operation time are different for the case studies investigated. The replacement of track circuits as detection devices and the introduction of balises can also positively influence the operation time, as well as increasing the speed of trains via LCs. However, due to the formulation of the OLC model, the impact of a longer train length on the operation of LC is not recognised. The OLC model can be used to estimate the real-time operation time of LC under different traffic conditions as well as the impact of different changes and extensions of LC.

This paper attempts to provide a better understanding of the service quality risks that are associated with freight train operations in mixed traffic. Adequate operational quality requires a certain level of robustness to delays and disruptions, but on segments with confined capacity, robustness becomes more fragile with increased traffic demand and speed heterogeneity. This trade-off between capacity utilization and service robustness predominantly manifests itself by compromising the reliability of rail freight services for two main reasons. Firstly, passenger trains are often prioritized in dispatching over freight trains. Secondly, many freight trains operate over longer distances and they accumulate more delays. Decreasing speed heterogeneity in mixed traffic may become pivotal in the interplay between robustness and capacity utilization. In this paper, we investigate possible improvements in capacity utilization and in railway service quality when introducing faster freight trains in mixed-traffic operations. The analysis is carried out on the Swedish Southern Main Line, which forms part of the Scandinavian-Mediterranean freight corridor. Microscopic simulation is used to explore performance indicators, such as simulated running times with respect to scheduled running times, capacity utilization, and punctuality, by implementing and comparing scenarios with different maximum speeds for freight trains. The results suggest that increasing the top speed of freight trains might seem as a promising approach for reduced utilization of capacity in the planning stage, but the stochasticity of operations in mixed traffic may become more challenging for delay recovery.

Implementing unattended train operation on the mainline could make the railway more competitive by reducing operating costs since there will be no staff onboard the train. This will, however, lead to new challenges. One of those challenges is how to deal with manually controlling trackside sensor alarms. In this paper, we study all trackside sensor alarms (hotbox/hotwheel and wheel damage) in Sweden for one year (2019) to study their frequency and context. The results show that freight trains have 10 times higher frequency for alarms per train kilometer than passenger trains. There are statistically significant seasonal and climate zone differences. The highest frequency of trackside alarms occurs in wintertime in the colder climate zone. The results can be used in the development of unattended train operation support systems on the mainline.

Sammanfattning

Syftet med föreliggande rapport är att följa upp utvecklingen av utbud och priser inom persontrafik på järnväg med ett urval sträckor i Sverige och till grannländerna som en del av Transportstyrelsens marknadsövervakning.

För järnvägslinjerna med persontrafik har utbud inklusive biljettpriser samlats in för relationer mellan två orter. På några viktigare relationer har insamlingen utökats med även kommersiella flyg- och busslinjer som konkurrerar med tåg för att få en helhetsbild av kollektivtrafikutbudet. Data om utbudet har samlats in en typisk vardag, vilket har varit en helgfri onsdag i mars eller oktober beroende på förutsätt­ningarna respektive år. 2024 var den planerade resdagen, eller huvudmätdagen, onsdagen den 20 mars och priserna motsvarar bokning en vecka innan avresa.

Efterfrågan i persontrafik på järnväg har växt under flera decennier i takt med utbudsförbättringar genom snabbare tåg, tätare turer och attraktiva priser. Covid-19-pandemin från 2020 innebar ett kraftigt avbräck i utvecklingen. Tågtrafiken återhämtade sig dock relativt snabbt tack vare stor efterfrågan på fritidsresor medan tjänsteresorna fortsatt ligger lägre. Det senare har framför allt drabbat den inrikes flygtrafiken som har mindre än hälften så många avgångar 2024 som 2019 på de fem stora linjerna, men även till viss del snabbtågstrafiken när det gäller biljettintäkter.

Under 2024 har utbudet av tågtrafik varit tämligen stabilt med relativt små förändringar sedan 2023. De förändringar som märks är framför allt i snabbtågs­trafiken där förändringar i antalet avgångar leder till förändrat biljettpris genom den flexibla prissättning som tillämpas. SJ har dragit in några snabbtågs­avgångar på flera linjer vilket sannolikt beror på fordonsbrist, orsakade av dels pågående ombyggnads­program av X 2000, dels tekniska problem och eftersläpande underhåll av tågsätten. En sträcka där priserna noterbart gått upp är Göteborg−Stockholm, där utbudet av SJ:s snabbtåg minskade med ett par avgångar jämfört med 2023, lågprisoperatören Flixtrain lämnade marknaden och MTRX snabbtåg togs över av VR 2024. På sträckan Malmö−Göteborg minskade SJ utbudet genom att mer än halvera antalet snabbtågsavgångar och justerade därmed upp biljettpriserna.

Sammanfattningsvis har 2024 inneburit en viss minskning av snabbtågsutbudet av tekniska skäl, och åtföljande högre priser på vissa linjer. Efterfrågan är relativt svag på tjänsteresor men mycket stark på privatresor. Däremot har tågets konkurrenssituation med flyg och buss förändrats radikalt efter covid-19-pandemin och snabbtåg är tydligt marknadsledande i många långväga relationer.

(Machine translated summary; the report is in Swedish only)

Summary

The purpose of this report is to follow up on the development of supply and prices in passenger rail transport with a selection of routes in Sweden and to neighbouring countries as part of the Swedish Transport Agency's market monitoring.

For the passenger rail lines, supply including ticket prices has been collected for connections between two locations. On some more important connections, the collection has been expanded to also include commercial air and bus lines that compete with trains in order to obtain a comprehensive picture of the public transport supply. Data on supply has been collected on a typical weekday, which has been a non-holiday Wednesday in March or October depending on the conditions in each year. In 2024, the planned travel day, or main measurement day, was Wednesday 20 March and the prices correspond to bookings one week before departure.

Demand for passenger rail transport has grown for several decades in line with improvements in supply through faster trains, more frequent trips and attractive prices. The Covid-19 pandemic from 2020 meant a sharp interruption in development. However, train traffic recovered relatively quickly thanks to high demand for leisure travel, while business travel remains lower. The latter has primarily affected domestic air traffic, which has less than half as many departures in 2024 as in 2019 on the five major lines, but also to some extent high-speed train traffic in terms of ticket revenue.

In 2024, the supply of train traffic has been fairly stable with relatively small changes since 2023. The changes that are noticeable are primarily in high-speed train traffic, where changes in the number of departures lead to changed ticket prices through the flexible pricing that is applied. SJ has withdrawn some high-speed train departures on several lines, which is likely due to a shortage of vehicles, caused partly by the ongoing reconstruction program of X 2000, partly by technical problems and lagging maintenance of the trainsets. One route where prices have increased noticeably is Gothenburg−Stockholm, where the supply of SJ's fast trains decreased by a couple of departures compared to 2023, the low-cost operator Flixtrain left the market and MTRX fast trains were taken over by VR in 2024. On the Malmö−Gothenburg route, SJ reduced the supply by more than halving the number of fast train departures and thus adjusted ticket prices upwards.

In summary, 2024 has meant a certain reduction in fast train supply for technical reasons, and consequent higher prices on certain lines. Demand is relatively weak on business trips but very strong on private trips. However, the competitive situation of the train with air and bus has changed radically after the Covid-19 pandemic and fast trains are clearly the market leader in many long-distance connections.

Bakgrund

Efterfrågan på transporter ökar, både för passagerare och gods. Järnvägen är bland de mest energieffektiva transportsätten på grund av det låga rullmotståndet mellan stålräl och stålhjul. Däremot minskar transportandelen för järnvägen i Europa eller är i bästa fall stabil. Det finns många faktorer till varför järnvägssektorn inte ökar sin transportandel. Kapacitetsbegränsningar, bristande flexibilitet och höga transportkostnader är några av dem. Samtidigt utvecklas vägsektorn med elektrifierade och autonoma fordon. För att järnvägssektorn ska öka sin konkurrenskraft och andel av transporterna krävs troligtvis nytänkande. Ett av de möjliga tillvägagångssätten är automatisk tågdrift (ATO).  ATO skulle kunna öka kapaciteten på grund av minskad förarvariation, minska kostnaderna och öka flexibiliteten genom att inte vara beroende av förarnas scheman och regler. Vissa av dessa fördelar skulle uppnås endast om en hög grad av automatisering implementeras, exempelvis tåg utan förare. Det skulle dock innebära att lokförarens och ombordpersonalens roller skulle behövas genomföras på andra sätt, speciellt vid oplanerade händelser. 

Metod

I denna studie har förseningsloggar från Trafikverket använts för att identifiera lokförarens roller vid oplanerade händelser. Förseningsloggarna är skrivna av tågtrafikledare och varje försening på minst tre minuter rapporteras. Förseningsloggarna ska innehålla en fritextbeskrivning av vad som orsakade förseningen. För denna studie användes fritextbeskrivningarna som innehöll ordet ”förare” under år 2019, totalt 7 600 beskrivningar, för att få en bild av förarens roll vid oplanerade händelser. En tematisk analys användes för att analysera fritextbeskrivningarna. Tematisk analys bygger på kodning av öppen data. I denna studie användes totalt 13 olika händelsekoder för att koda de 7 600 beskrivningarna och totalt åtta olika objektkoder för att specificera objektet för händelsen. En förseningslogg kunde innehålla flera olika händelser och sekvenser med upp till tre aktivitetskoder användes därmed.

Resultat och slutsats

Resultaten visar att detektering är lokförarens vanligaste uppgift följt av justering och inspektion. Det vanligaste objektet är fordonet med över 2 700 händelser och det näst vanligaste objektet är människor med 380 händelser. De vanligaste sekvenserna är Detektera + Justera (n=375), Detektera + Inspektera (n=344), Detektera + Assistans (n=64), Inspektera + Justera (n=58) och Detektera + Inspektera + Justera (n= 39). Resultaten visar att lokförarna utför många olika uppgifter under oplanerade händelser. Resultaten visar också att lokförarna även hanterar avvikelser i infrastrukturen. Ett sådant exempel är få bort snö och is vid växlar.

Om förarlösa tåg ska fungera i ett land som Sverige behöver åtgärder vidtas för att minska antalet oplanerade händelser så mycket som möjligt. Detta kan innefatta restriktioner för var förarlösa tåg får trafikera, exempelvis områden med hög risk för snö- och isrelaterade händelser. Andra åtgärder kan inkludera trädsäkrade zoner längs spåren, inga plankorsningar, viltstängsel och vägar längs spåren för korta responstider för serviceteam. Förarlösa tåg skulle kunna ha positiva effekter på järnvägssystemet och öka dess konkurrenskraft. Men de negativa effekterna kan också bli stora beroende på hur och var det genomförs. Framtida forskning bör studera systemeffekterna av förarlösa tåg genom att bedöma både de positiva effekterna (mer kapacitet, lägre kostnader och ökad flexibilitet) mot de negativa effekterna (förseningar på grund av oplanerade händelser och felhanteringsmöjligheter).