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Weiss, X., Rolander, A., Nordström, L. & Hilber, P. (2027). Distributed energy resource portfolio sizing for extreme event mitigation using deep reinforcement learning. Electric power systems research, 262, Article ID 113549.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Distributed energy resource portfolio sizing for extreme event mitigation using deep reinforcement learning
2027 (English)In: Electric power systems research, ISSN 0378-7796, E-ISSN 1873-2046, Vol. 262, article id 113549Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Whether due to climate change, cyber attacks, or physical attacks, outages in the electrical grid can cause economic and physical harm. In this work we investigate how Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) could be leveraged to enhance resilience by using demand response and energy storage to mitigate line outage events. In order to provide rapid decision support, in this work continuous off-policy Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is applied on a portfolio of DERs after an extreme event has impacted. With the help of distributed training, hyperparameter optimisation, and a safety shield the resulting agents were able to reduce Energy Not Supplied (ENS) by up to 52.9%, on average, in unseen scenarios. By varying the composition of the DER portfolio, a weak linear relationship between portfolio size and scenario performance was found, alongside a strong impact of where demand response was applied. Nevertheless, based on this sensitivity analysis, a DSO could temporarily contract DERs based on the expected reduction in the cost of ENS, when compared to the cost of acquiring the DER.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2027
Keywords
Decision support systems, Deep reinforcement learning, Disaster and recovery, Distributed energy resources, Resilience
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-385418 (URN)10.1016/j.epsr.2026.113549 (DOI)001810481900001 ()2-s2.0-105043145323 (Scopus ID)
Note

Not duplicate with diva 2057734

QC 20260714

Available from: 2026-07-14 Created: 2026-07-14 Last updated: 2026-07-14Bibliographically approved
Koziel, S. E., Ichise, R. & Hilber, P. (2026). Failure Warning System for Individual Electric Power Components Without Component-Specific Sensor Data. International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering (IJRQSE), 33(05), Article ID 2650019.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Failure Warning System for Individual Electric Power Components Without Component-Specific Sensor Data
2026 (English)In: International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering (IJRQSE), ISSN 0218-5393, Vol. 33, no 05, article id 2650019Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

With the expansion of machine learning, many failure detection algorithms have been developed. However, existing models are not applicable in the field of power systems, because practical limitations of grid operators are not considered. For instance, part of the models rely on component-specific sensor data. Owing to the size of power systems among others, it is unrealistic to install sensors on all grid components. We investigate the possibility to predict the failure of a grid component without using component-specific sensors. To this goal, an automatization algorithm is developed, that selects pre-processing methods of input data and optimal hyperparameters of machine learning models. It leverages commonly available operational data to generate warnings when there is a risk of failure of a specific grid component. Autoencoders provide satisfactory results when suitable choices are made concerning the performance criteria, and the data pre-processing, including the number of lags and sliding window steps and the use of binary variables. Finally, we discuss ways to improve the algorithm, notably methods for data augmentation, cross validation, and strategies to cope with the trade-off between false alarms and failure detection.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
World Scientific Pub Co Pte Ltd, 2026
Keywords
Auto-encoders, Bayesian optimization, electric power grid, failure prediction, machine learning, rare event detection, time series
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering Computer Sciences Other Computer and Information Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-382013 (URN)10.1142/S0218539326500191 (DOI)001752941600001 ()2-s2.0-105037138441 (Scopus ID)
Note

Not duplicate with DiVA 1845116

QC 20260522

Available from: 2026-05-22 Created: 2026-05-22 Last updated: 2026-08-14Bibliographically approved
Ramezani, I. & Hilber, P. (2026). GUIDE–PdM: A Data-Informed Framework for Method Selection in Predictive Maintenance. IEEE Access, 14, 106995-107013
Open this publication in new window or tab >>GUIDE–PdM: A Data-Informed Framework for Method Selection in Predictive Maintenance
2026 (English)In: IEEE Access, E-ISSN 2169-3536, Vol. 14, p. 106995-107013Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Artificial intelligence has become a prominent approach for predictive maintenance in power systems, driven by the need to anticipate failures and improve grid reliability. However, advanced models are often adopted without systematically assessing whether data quality, maintenance objectives, and operational constraints make them feasible or advantageous. In high-stakes power-system applications, misaligned methodological choices can produce solutions that are difficult to deploy, inflate costs, and delay actionable results. This motivates the need for clear, data-informed criteria for selecting suitable predictive-maintenance methods among complex artificial intelligence, conventional data-driven, and non-data-driven approaches. This paper presents GUIDE–PdM, a five-phase decision-support framework that aligns modeling strategies with data readiness and asset-management objectives. GUIDE–PdM supports practitioners through problem definition, data characterization, method selection, model development, and adaptive deployment, in a structured process where the use of complex artificial intelligence is justified by evidence rather than assumed. To complement the framework, we provide a data–method mapping table that links data modalities, constraints, and application requirements to methods reported in the literature. The framework is formalized as pseudo-code alongside the flowchart, with a fully worked numeric instantiation for one case in Appendix A. Its applicability is shown through four case studies in grid operation and asset management, illustrating how data readiness, system complexity, and operational constraints jointly shape method selection. While the case studies focus on power-system assets, the same approach should transfer to other industrial domains with similar constraints and a comparable need to justify method selection.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2026
Keywords
Artificial intelligence, condition monitoring, decision support, machine learning, method selection, power systems, predictive maintenance
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-386098 (URN)10.1109/ACCESS.2026.3711486 (DOI)2-s2.0-105044668475 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20260724

Available from: 2026-07-24 Created: 2026-07-24 Last updated: 2026-07-24Bibliographically approved
Chretiennot, T., Hilber, P., Jahn, I. & Ramezani, I. (2026). Markov-based reliability assessment: Point-To-point & multi-Terminal hvdc topologies. Paper presented at 22nd IET International Conference on AC and DC Power Transmission, ACDC Europe 2026, Berlin, Germany, Apr 28 2026 - Apr 29 2026. 22nd IET International Conference on AC and DC Power Transmission, ACDC Europe 2026, 2026(4), 289-294
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Markov-based reliability assessment: Point-To-point & multi-Terminal hvdc topologies
2026 (English)In: 22nd IET International Conference on AC and DC Power Transmission, ACDC Europe 2026, E-ISSN 2732-4494, Vol. 2026, no 4, p. 289-294Article in journal, Meeting abstract (Other academic) Published
Abstract [en]

As Europe accelerates toward a more interconnected and decarbonized power system, cross-border electricity exchange and HVDC transmission have become essential for grid stability, renewable integration, and market coupling. This paper presents a Markov-based reliability assessment of Point-To-Point (P2P) and Multi-Terminal (MT) HVDC topologies, focusing on how network configuration impacts overall system reliability. Using continuous-Time Markov processes, the reliability of Voltage Source Converter (VSC) stations and DC transmission lines is evaluated, with a detailed analysis of subsystem vulnerabilities, particularly the critical AC↔DC conversion unit. Results show that partial capacity states are rare, with failures typically leading to complete link shutdowns. The study compares the availability of P2P monopolar and parallel-monopolar configurations with MT ring and meshed topologies, revealing that MT meshed systems offer superior fault tolerance, despite their complexity. The findings highlight the importance of preventive maintenance, configuration choices, and multi-vendor interoperability in enhancing HVDC reliability, providing a foundation for guiding future investments in reliable, resilient, and sustainable power grids.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET), 2026
Keywords
Continuous-Time Markov Process, Multi-Terminal HVDC, Point-To-Point HVDC, Reliability Assessment, Voltage Source Converter
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-387250 (URN)10.1049/icp.2026.2716 (DOI)2-s2.0-105046207262 (Scopus ID)
Conference
22nd IET International Conference on AC and DC Power Transmission, ACDC Europe 2026, Berlin, Germany, Apr 28 2026 - Apr 29 2026
Note

QC 20260818

Available from: 2026-08-18 Created: 2026-08-18 Last updated: 2026-08-18Bibliographically approved
Weiss, X., Rolander, A., Kazmi, H., Nordström, L. & Hilber, P. (2026). Mitigation of Extreme Events in the Distribution Grid Through Control of Flexible Resources. IEEE Access, 14, 31520-31536
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Mitigation of Extreme Events in the Distribution Grid Through Control of Flexible Resources
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2026 (English)In: IEEE Access, E-ISSN 2169-3536, Vol. 14, p. 31520-31536Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Despite ongoing efforts to decarbonize society, climate change continues to result in more extreme events that can reduce the electrical grid’s ability to reliably supply power to end users. At the same time, across the distribution grid, Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), such as renewable generation, energy storage systems, and flexible resources, offer the possibility of operating the grid in novel ways. Distribution System Operator (DSOs) could employ these DERs to improve their ability to mitigate extreme events. This work therefore demonstrates how DERs, in the form of flexible loads, can be controlled by a Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) agent to minimize Energy Not Supplied (ENS) in the immediate aftermath of an extreme event. To obtain near-optimal performance on unseen scenarios, an enhanced Implicit Q Network (IQN+) architecture is proposed, trained, and evaluated on a modified CIGRE MV benchmark grid. The resulting IQN+ agent can outperform a passive baseline policy, a trained Rainbow DQN policy, and a single-timestep Optimal Power Flow (OPF) based policy on the test set. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the location and quantity of available DERs also impact the efficacy of the IQN+ agent, with the agent preferentially using actions on loads that result in greater average episode durations. These results highlight the potential for RL to rapidly provide decision support to operators by suggesting potential remedial actions to mitigate the impact of extreme events.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2026
Keywords
Decision Support, Deep Reinforcement Learning, Demand Response, Resilience
National Category
Computer Sciences Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-377873 (URN)10.1109/ACCESS.2026.3666213 (DOI)001706374500034 ()2-s2.0-105030831498 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20260309

Available from: 2026-03-09 Created: 2026-03-09 Last updated: 2026-05-29Bibliographically approved
Anggraini, D., Li, Z., Månsson, D., Hilber, P., Amelin, M. & Söder, L. (2026). System balancing with electric vehicles considering Swedish market structures and battery degradation from controlled charging. Journal of Energy Storage, 154, Article ID 121184.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>System balancing with electric vehicles considering Swedish market structures and battery degradation from controlled charging
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2026 (English)In: Journal of Energy Storage, ISSN 2352-152X, E-ISSN 2352-1538, Vol. 154, article id 121184Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The growing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) creates opportunities to support power system reliability by using EV batteries as decentralized storage resources. This paper proposes an optimization framework for EV aggregators participating in ancillary service markets through unidirectional smart charging (V1G) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) operation, explicitly accounting for battery lifetime degradation. Eleven scenarios are evaluated in the context of the Swedish electricity market to examine different market participation strategies, degradation modeling approaches, and degradation compensation schemes. Two degradation models are considered: a simplified empirical model and a detailed lithium-ion degradation model based on solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation — a passivation layer that forms on the negative electrode during battery operation and contributes to capacity fade and internal resistance increase. Unlike most prior studies that focus only on capacity loss, the proposed framework captures both capacity fade and power capability fade, enabling more realistic scheduling and cost estimation. Results demonstrate that controlled EV charging and participation in ancillary services significantly improve economic outcomes compared to uncontrolled charging. In a case study with 55 EVs, the EV aggregator achieves a daily net revenue of up to €100, even for a relatively small-scale system. At the same time, EV owners receive charging cost reductions of up to 40% compared to the baseline uncontrolled charging scenario. Scenarios with explicit degradation compensation achieve fairer cost allocation at minimal profit reduction for the EV aggregator. A sensitivity analysis further demonstrates that the main economic conclusions remain robust across a wide range of degradation cost assumptions. Overall, the study confirms that battery degradation-aware V1G/V2G strategies can deliver significant economic benefits while respecting operational constraints.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2026
Keywords
Battery lifetime degradationControlled charging; Electric vehicles; Grid limitations; Lithium-ion; Solid electrolyte interphase.
National Category
Power Systems and Components
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-377830 (URN)10.1016/j.est.2026.121184 (DOI)001701693800001 ()2-s2.0-105034727966 (Scopus ID)
Projects
Affärsmodeller för laddning av elbilar med hänsyn till nätbegränsningar: samspel mellan bilägare, elleverantör och nätägare
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, P2022-00685StandUp
Note

QC 20260416

Available from: 2026-03-06 Created: 2026-03-06 Last updated: 2026-04-16Bibliographically approved
Li, Z., Hilber, P., Li, Z., Laneryd, T. & Ivanell, S. (2026). Temporally Coordinated Operation of Green Multi-Energy Airport Microgrids With Climatic Correlations and Flexible Loads via Decomposed Stochastic Programming. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 17(2), 1909-1922
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Temporally Coordinated Operation of Green Multi-Energy Airport Microgrids With Climatic Correlations and Flexible Loads via Decomposed Stochastic Programming
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2026 (English)In: IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, ISSN 1949-3029, E-ISSN 1949-3037, Vol. 17, no 2, p. 1909-1922Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To cater to the advancement of electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft, airports are increasingly motivated to transition to green multi-energy airport microgrids (MEAM) for efficient operation and integration of stochastic renewable energy sources (RES). This paper presents a temporally coordinated (two-stage) stochastic programming (SP) model to minimize the energy supply cost of MEAMs while enabling efficient operations with electricity, green hydrogen and thermal energy. From the MEAM perspective, first, the multi-energy loads of MEAMs are considered flexible and modeled in details; second, the electricity-to-hydrogen-and-heat (E2HH) model is applied considering the influence of climatic conditions on the electrolyzers' efficiencies. With regard to the SP model, for one thing, the copula method is employed to capture correlations between climatic parameters related to RES generation and loads to enhance the accuracy and fidelity of the generated scenarios; for another, the Jensen wake model is applied to improve the estimation accuracy of available wind power in the generated scenarios. Furthermore, an adapted-penalty Progressive Hedging (PH) model is proposed to decompose the SP model, reducing the computational burden. Finally, case studies indicate that the proposed approach can effectively coordinate the operation of MEAM to balance system security and cost minimization.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2026
Keywords
Airports, Electricity, Atmospheric modeling, Load modeling, Computational modeling, Stochastic processes, Aircraft, Microgrids, Adaptation models, Thermal energy, Multi-energy airport microgrids, demand response, wake effect, decomposed stochastic programming, E2HH
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-382151 (URN)10.1109/TSTE.2025.3639360 (DOI)001723870300012 ()2-s2.0-105023992971 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20260525

Available from: 2026-05-25 Created: 2026-05-25 Last updated: 2026-05-25Bibliographically approved
Koziel, S. E., Ilić, M. D., Ferreira, D. M. .., Carvalho, P. M. .. & Hilber, P. (2025). Data strategy for active distribution networks: a framework to quantify data granularity impact on cyber-physical planning and operation. Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks, 43, Article ID 101763.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Data strategy for active distribution networks: a framework to quantify data granularity impact on cyber-physical planning and operation
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2025 (English)In: Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks, E-ISSN 2352-4677, Vol. 43, article id 101763Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The operational challenges of the integration of electric vehicles (EV), air conditioning and photovoltaic panels (PV) are prompting the upgrade of distribution grids, seen here as cyber-physical infrastructures. An important upgrading feature of the cyber-side is the electrical grid monitoring, which needs to expand both in data coverage and granularity. The challenge is to decide the data strategy, or in other words, which level of granularity is actually needed in active distribution networks. This work proposes a framework to assist grid planners in selecting the level of data expansion needed, by quantifying the impact of extended data granularity on control capabilities, and corresponding grid performance. The framework combines machine learning with AC optimal power flow and state estimation to select incremental upgrades of the cyber-physical infrastructure. Grid planning and operation are simulated and tested for the IEEE 33-bus test system over a 5-year span to assess the role of granularity in grid performance for different cyber-infrastructures. The results show that extending data granularity is critical for mitigating voltage violations under high penetration of EVs, air conditioning and PVs. By modeling the relationships between data, grid planning and operation, and grid performance, the framework supports efficient cyber system upgrades to mitigate operational violations while accounting for budget limitations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2025
Keywords
Control, Data needs, Meters, Optimal power flow, Optimization, Sensors, Smart grids, State estimation, System management
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-366025 (URN)10.1016/j.segan.2025.101763 (DOI)001510364800001 ()2-s2.0-105007529959 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20250703

Available from: 2025-07-03 Created: 2025-07-03 Last updated: 2025-08-15Bibliographically approved
Asefi, S., Asefi, S., Afshari, H., Kilter, J., Shayesteh, E., Hilber, P. & Lindquist, T. (2025). Machine Learning based High Voltage Circuit Breaker Defect Classification Utilizing Savitzky-Golay Filter. IEEE Transactions on Instrumentation and Measurement, 74, 1-9
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Machine Learning based High Voltage Circuit Breaker Defect Classification Utilizing Savitzky-Golay Filter
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2025 (English)In: IEEE Transactions on Instrumentation and Measurement, ISSN 0018-9456, E-ISSN 1557-9662, Vol. 74, p. 1-9Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

High Voltage Circuit Breakers (HVCBs) are critical components in power systems to maintain reliable operation. Accurate condition monitoring of HVCBs is vital to reduce maintenance costs and consequently to enhance grid reliability. However, achieving this with low-cost measurement devices, which often provide noisy signals, poses a significant challenge. In this paper, a novel defect classification framework for HVCBs is proposed that uses the Savitzky-Golay filter to preprocess the most common condition monitoring signal, which is the trip/close coil current. This filter is well-known for denoising while preserving critical signal features. Following signal preprocessing, a robust defect detection and classification methodology is introduced, combining time series similarity assessment techniques, such as Euclidean distance and dynamic time warping, with machine learning algorithms. Moreover, an experimental setup is designed to emulate the behavior of an HVCB's coil mechanism. To further enhance model transparency, Shapley additive explanations analysis is applied, providing interpretability into feature contributions toward model decisions. The obtained results validate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid approach, demonstrating its potential to provide a cost-effective, accurate, and reliable solution for HVCB condition monitoring.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2025
Keywords
Circuit breaker, Condition monitoring, Dynamic time warping, Machine learning, Savitzky-Golay
National Category
Signal Processing Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-370089 (URN)10.1109/TIM.2025.3604980 (DOI)001569579700020 ()2-s2.0-105015171174 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20250919

Available from: 2025-09-19 Created: 2025-09-19 Last updated: 2025-12-05Bibliographically approved
Weiss, X., Nordström, L., Hilber, P. & Süren, E. (2025). Procedural Generation of Communication Networks in Power Systems. In: 2025 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe, ISGT Europe 2025: . Paper presented at 2025 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe, ISGT Europe 2025, Valletta, Malta, October 20-23, 2025. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Procedural Generation of Communication Networks in Power Systems
2025 (English)In: 2025 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe, ISGT Europe 2025, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2025Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Power system communication networks enable operators to remotely monitor and control field equipment. The sophistication of these networks is also increasing as operators continue the trend towards digitization, which is beneficial in integrating distributed energy resources. However, as the attack surface increases in size so too does the risk of cyberattacks. The topology, configuration and composition of communication net-works is therefore confidential since this can provide information to attackers. As a result, the number of benchmarks available for research purposes is limited.A tool for procedurally generating communication network topologies is therefore proposed. While primarily intended as an enabler for public research into communication networks, this tool also allows general insights to be gained into the effect of communication network design on the vulnerability of networks to cyberattacks. The tool includes the ability to encapsulate network characteristics in JSON specification files, which is demonstrated with example Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) networks. The SCADA network generation is then compared to a real-world case. Finally, the effect of network redundancy on the networks' cyber resilience is investigated.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2025
Keywords
Communication networks, Cyber-physical systems, Procedural generation, SCADA systems, Smart meters
National Category
Computer Systems Communication Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-378988 (URN)10.1109/ISGTEurope64741.2025.11305608 (DOI)001685173600365 ()2-s2.0-105032513851 (Scopus ID)
Conference
2025 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe, ISGT Europe 2025, Valletta, Malta, October 20-23, 2025
Note

Part of ISBN 9798331525033

QC 20260414

Available from: 2026-04-14 Created: 2026-04-14 Last updated: 2026-04-14Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-2964-7233

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