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Costa Nascimento, P., Trevisan, S., Topel, M. & Laumert, B. (2025). Data-driven probabilistic evaluation of electric-vehicle integration in distribution systems: charging behavior, hosting capacity, and grid impact. Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks, 43, Article ID 101770.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Data-driven probabilistic evaluation of electric-vehicle integration in distribution systems: charging behavior, hosting capacity, and grid impact
2025 (English)In: Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks, E-ISSN 2352-4677, Vol. 43, article id 101770Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Decarbonization policies have significantly increased the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) worldwide. This paper develops and applies a probabilistic method for assessing large-scale integration of PEVs in a real low voltage distribution system (DS) in Stockholm County, Sweden. The framework employs Monte Carlo simulations to capture uncertainties in driver behaviors, daily distances, charging start times, and vehicle allocation. Its key contributions are: (i) a replicable data-driven Monte Carlo framework that merges DS operator (DSO) load data with travel habit statistics, (ii) realistic charging-profile generation, (iii) demonstrate that adding price signals plus a network constraint almost doubles hosting capacity and cuts user costs, and (iv) a systematic comparison of uncontrolled versus controlled charging that clarifies technical-economic trade-offs. The analysis considers PEV penetration levels (Pls)—defined as the percentage of customer units (CUs) with a PEV among all CUs with permanent access to a passenger vehicle—up to 100 %. Key performance indicators, analyzed at the 95th percentile to represent near-worst-case outcomes, include voltage profiles, transformer and line loading, aggregated peak power, technical losses, and hosting capacity. Uncontrolled charging raises peak demand, causing voltage and overload violations that cap hosting capacity at Pl 27 %. Adding price signals with a peak demand cap lifts capacity to Pl 49 %, halves overloads, and lowers charging costs by about 10 %. Night-time charging suffices up to Pl 49 %; above Pl 75 %, morning charging is needed to keep power quality within limits. The method is broadly replicable and offers actionable guidance for municipalities, DSOs, and policymakers seeking to ensure a sustainable and cost-effective transition toward electrified transportation while maintaining reliable DS operation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2025
Keywords
Plug-in electric vehicles; Charging patterns; Monte carlo simulation; Distribution system; Power quality; Hosting capacity; Controlled charging.
National Category
Power Systems and Components
Research subject
Electrical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-365712 (URN)10.1016/j.segan.2025.101770 (DOI)001518578500001 ()2-s2.0-105008572062 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, P2020-90143
Note

QC 20250703

Available from: 2025-06-26 Created: 2025-06-26 Last updated: 2025-10-03Bibliographically approved
Costa Nascimento, P., Topel, M., Melo Vieira, J. C. & Laumert, B. (2025). Mitigation strategies for electric vehicle impact on power systems: A comprehensive probabilistic method. Electric power systems research, 247, Article ID 111738.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Mitigation strategies for electric vehicle impact on power systems: A comprehensive probabilistic method
2025 (English)In: Electric power systems research, ISSN 0378-7796, E-ISSN 1873-2046, Vol. 247, article id 111738Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are a sustainable choice in response to electrification and decarbonization policies. Their widespread adoption poses challenges and opportunities, particularly for distribution systems (DSs). This study introduces a comprehensive probabilistic method to assist DS operators (DSOs) in infrastructure decision-making under uncoordinated PEV charging scenarios. Using real-world case studies and employing a Monte Carlo-based approach, it evaluates the impact of PEV charging on various aspects of DSs, including voltage magnitudes, imbalance, technical losses, and transformer loading. Mitigation strategies are explored through adjustments of substation transformer tap settings, modifications of no-load tap changers (NLTCs), and installation of low voltage regulators (LVRs). Results indicate that while transformer tap adjustments can improve voltage profiles, NLTC modifications may worsen overvoltage issues. In contrast, LVR implementation significantly reduces the number of customer units with voltage violations and lowers daily compensation costs. However, relying solely on LVRs may be insufficient when PEV penetration exceeds 35%. Moreover, their effectiveness in mitigating voltage imbalance diminishes due to independent LVR control and increased load. Still, economic analysis shows that LVRs can be financially viable even under these conditions. Sensitivity analyses highlight the critical influence of both PEV penetration levels and their spatial distribution within the DS in realistic PEV modeling simulations. In conclusion, this study proposes a probabilistic method to assist DSOs in the decision-making process of enhancing voltage regulation on DSs, comprehensively addressing losses, voltage imbalances, and loading in DSs impacted by PEV adoption.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2025
Keywords
Plug-in electric vehicles; Distribution systems; Probabilistic method; Infrastructure solutions; Low voltage regulation.
National Category
Power Systems and Components
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-363246 (URN)10.1016/j.epsr.2025.111738 (DOI)001490442200006 ()2-s2.0-105004391483 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20250515

Available from: 2025-05-09 Created: 2025-05-09 Last updated: 2025-07-03Bibliographically approved
Ruan, T., Wang, W. & Laumert, B. (2025). Potential of Wall-Mounted Solar PV Panel in high-latitude areas-A case study in Swedish contexts. In: Energy Proceedings: . Paper presented at 16th International Conference on Applied Energy, ICAE 2024, Niigata, Japan, Sep 1 2024 - Sep 5 2024. Applied Energy Innovation Institute (AEii), 51
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Potential of Wall-Mounted Solar PV Panel in high-latitude areas-A case study in Swedish contexts
2025 (English)In: Energy Proceedings, Applied Energy Innovation Institute (AEii) , 2025, Vol. 51Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

To catch up with the sustainability transition progress, the global capacity of PV system is predicted to grow dramatically in the following decades, including high-latitude regions. To effectively use the urban space resource for PV power generation in the high-latitude areas, wall-mounted PV system is becoming an attractive solution. This paper evaluates the potential of wallmounted PV system in the high-latitude areas with a case study in Swedish contexts through a PV power generation model by considering weather conditions (including snowfall, icing and melting), orientation, and economics. The key performances are compared with rooftop fixed-tilt angle PV systems in Swedish contexts. Although the annual power generation of the wallmounted PV system is around 5% lower under heavy snow conditions, its power generation during the snow season (from October to April) increases significantly. In general, the power generation in March almost doubled and the increase could be more than 25% in April. Therefore, wall-mounted PV system can contribute to the winter electricity supply in high-latitude areas, when the electricity price is high.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Applied Energy Innovation Institute (AEii), 2025
Keywords
High-latitude areas, Snow conditions, Techno-economic analysis, Wall-mounted PV
National Category
Energy Systems Fusion, Plasma and Space Physics Other Engineering and Technologies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-356946 (URN)10.46855/energy-proceedings-11449 (DOI)2-s2.0-85209574607 (Scopus ID)
Conference
16th International Conference on Applied Energy, ICAE 2024, Niigata, Japan, Sep 1 2024 - Sep 5 2024
Note

QC 20241129

Available from: 2024-11-28 Created: 2024-11-28 Last updated: 2025-04-17Bibliographically approved
Ruan, T., Wang, F., Topel, M., Laumert, B. & Wang, W. (2024). A new optimal PV installation angle model in high-latitude cold regions based on historical weather big data. Applied Energy, 359, Article ID 122690.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A new optimal PV installation angle model in high-latitude cold regions based on historical weather big data
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2024 (English)In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 359, article id 122690Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

PV technologies are regarded as one of the most promising renewable options for the transition towards Net Zero. Despite the rapid development of PV systems in recent years, achieving the necessary goals requires more than a threefold increase in annual capacity deployment by 2030. However, current PV systems often fall short of optimal performance due to improper installation angles. In high-latitude cold regions, the actual PV generation capacity is frequently overestimated due to the omission of snow conditions. This study introduces a novel model designed for high-latitude regions to predict local optimal PV installation angle that maximizes PV power generation, utilizing historical weather big data, including snowfall and melting effects. A case study is presented within a Swedish context to demonstrate the implementation of these methods. The results highlight the crucial role snow conditions play in determining PV performance, resulting in an average reduction of 14.7% in annual PV power generation. Optimal installation angle could yield approximately a 4.8% improvement compared to common installation angles. The study also explores the application of snow removal agents, which could potentially increase PV generation by 0.1–2.3%. Additionally, the new PV installation angle successfully captures the impact of the local weather changes on PV power generation, potentially serving as a bridge between climate change adaptation and future PV power generation endeavors.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2024
Keywords
High-latitude region, Optimal PV installation angle, Snow condition, Snow-PV yield model, Weather big data
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-344017 (URN)10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122690 (DOI)001170659600001 ()2-s2.0-85185176041 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20240229

Available from: 2024-02-28 Created: 2024-02-28 Last updated: 2025-04-17Bibliographically approved
Ruan, T., Topel, M., Padovani, F., Wang, W. & Laumert, B. (2024). Pv-load matching based on combination of different consumers: A case study in Swedish contexts. Solar Energy, 281, Article ID 112885.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Pv-load matching based on combination of different consumers: A case study in Swedish contexts
Show others...
2024 (English)In: Solar Energy, ISSN 0038-092X, E-ISSN 1471-1257, Vol. 281, article id 112885Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The transition towards sustainability necessitates robust growth of renewable energy, especially solar power. However, increasing the shares of solar power may lead to mismatch of electricity supply and demand, thus worse solar power performance could be received due to lower self-consumption and self-sufficiency. This issue has attracted more attention recently as it also requires additional costs for controlling and battery integration. This study combines several load profiles from consumers having different behaviors with different proportions to find out the optimal shares with higher level of PV penetration and self-sufficiency. A visualizing matching layout is proposed to present the PV-load matching level of all the possibilities at different seasons based on a Swedish context. It is found an 8% improvement of self-sufficiency reaching 70% in summer without additional equipment and scarification of self-consumption. The results could assist in the design and planning of the future power sector. Regarding specific targets, various optimal solutions could be found based on the layout.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2024
Keywords
Load profile combination, Matching heatmap, Performance improvement, PV loading matching, Urban areas
National Category
Energy Engineering Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-353483 (URN)10.1016/j.solener.2024.112885 (DOI)001310501900001 ()2-s2.0-85202337103 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20240919

Available from: 2024-09-19 Created: 2024-09-19 Last updated: 2024-09-27Bibliographically approved
Padovani, F., Topel, M. & Laumert, B. (2023). Case Study of Shared Solar Applications in a Swedish Energy Community. In: Proceedings of 2023 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe, ISGT EUROPE 2023: . Paper presented at 2023 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe, ISGT EUROPE 2023, Oct 23 2023 - Oct 26 2023, Grenoble, France. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Case Study of Shared Solar Applications in a Swedish Energy Community
2023 (English)In: Proceedings of 2023 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe, ISGT EUROPE 2023, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2023Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In response to the ongoing climate crisis, the European Union has introduced a legislative package aimed at promoting clean energy initiatives. In this context, energy communities (E C s) are defined as core actors in the energy transition plan, by promoting local electricity generation, consumption, and sharing. This study aims to investigate the feasibility of E C s in Sweden, by performing a case study on a real distribution system in a Stockholm district. Solar photovoltaic (P V) and energy storage (E S) technologies are modeled and implemented into the system, and different scenarios are tested to identify optimal techno-economic solutions. The results indicate that self-consumption can increase up to 95%, and annual electricity costs are reduced by up to 30% compared to a case without PV generation. The analysis of the net present value (NPV) shows that collective self-consumption through shared solar applications increases the profitability of investing in PV by more than 24%.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2023
Keywords
collective self-consumption, Energycommunities, energystorage energy sharing, solarenergy
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-344032 (URN)10.1109/ISGTEUROPE56780.2023.10408317 (DOI)2-s2.0-85185227446 (Scopus ID)
Conference
2023 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe, ISGT EUROPE 2023, Oct 23 2023 - Oct 26 2023, Grenoble, France
Note

Part of ISBN: 979-835039678-2

QC 20240301

Available from: 2024-02-28 Created: 2024-02-28 Last updated: 2024-03-01Bibliographically approved
Costa Nascimento, P., Padovani, F., Topel, M. & Laumert, B. (2023). Case study on the effects of increasing public charging infrastructure on a distribution network in Stockholm County. In: The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers (Ed.), International Conference on Power Engineering-2023 (ICOPE-2023): . Paper presented at ICOPE-2023 “Nuclear, thermal, and renewables: United to provide carbon neutral power”, May 21-26, 2023, Kyoto, Japan.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Case study on the effects of increasing public charging infrastructure on a distribution network in Stockholm County
2023 (English)In: International Conference on Power Engineering-2023 (ICOPE-2023) / [ed] The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2023Conference paper, Oral presentation only (Refereed)
National Category
Power Systems and Components
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-365969 (URN)
Conference
ICOPE-2023 “Nuclear, thermal, and renewables: United to provide carbon neutral power”, May 21-26, 2023, Kyoto, Japan
Note

QC 20250703

Available from: 2025-07-02 Created: 2025-07-02 Last updated: 2025-07-03Bibliographically approved
Wang, W., Fei, Y., Dutta, J. & Laumert, B. (2023). Photothermal performance of three chromia-forming refractory alloys for high-temperature solar absorber applications. Applied Thermal Engineering, 225, Article ID 120189.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Photothermal performance of three chromia-forming refractory alloys for high-temperature solar absorber applications
2023 (English)In: Applied Thermal Engineering, ISSN 1359-4311, E-ISSN 1873-5606, Vol. 225, article id 120189Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Spectral hemispherical emissivity is a crucial material characteristic that determines radiation heat transfer. In high-temperature solar thermal applications, it affects not only the efficiency of the solar energy absorption but also the heat losses caused by thermal radiation and the radiative heat transfer within the receiver. Due to the limitations of the working temperature of existing solar absorber coatings, the spectral hemispherical emissivity of the oxidized surface is a key performance indicator for evaluating the potential of a candidate refractory alloy for high-temperature (> 1000 degrees C) solar receiver/reactor designs. In this work, we systematically studied the photothermal performances of the oxidized surfaces of three widely used high-performance commercial chromia-forming alloys (Haynes 230, Hastelloy X, and SS 253MA) by analyzing the spectral hemispherical reflectance in the band 0.25-25 mu m. The stability of the optical properties of the formed oxide layers have also been studied by exposing the three alloys at 1150 degrees C in air for three different exposure periods (10 h, 100 h, and 200 h). The results show that the solar absorptivity of all the samples is in the range of 0.800-0.855, with SS 253MA showing the best performances in offering both high and stable solar absorptivity in the range of 0.837-0.855. The evaluation of the photothermal performances suggest the potential of these three alloys in solar-thermal applications.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2023
Keywords
Solar receiver, Chromia-forming alloys, Oxidation, Spectral hemispherical absorptivity, Concentrating solar power
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-325219 (URN)10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2023.120189 (DOI)000944507000001 ()2-s2.0-85148718155 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20230403

Available from: 2023-04-03 Created: 2023-04-03 Last updated: 2023-04-03Bibliographically approved
Ruan, T., Topel, M., Wang, W. & Laumert, B. (2023). Potential of grid-connected decentralized rooftop PV systems in Sweden. Heliyon, 9(6), Article ID e16871.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Potential of grid-connected decentralized rooftop PV systems in Sweden
2023 (English)In: Heliyon, E-ISSN 2405-8440, Vol. 9, no 6, article id e16871Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Solar power generation in Sweden is far from required capacity to help with transition towards 100% renewables in the power sector by 2040. Decentralized PV system attracts attentions given the conflicts of future increasing demands and land scarcity in the urban areas. However, it is not easy to implement it due to challenges on local conditions and lack of references. This paper aims to propose an overview of the potential of small-scale grid-connected PV systems in a Swedish context and offer an example for urban PV system planning in Sweden or high latitude areas. A model considering weather, space, infrastructures and economics is developed and implemented with a real case in the Swedish context. The findings verify the technical and economic feasibility of urban decentralized rooftop PV systems in the Swedish context. It is found that this kind of system does have considerable power potential in the Swedish context without land requirements. This kind of PV system could be a promising option for future power generation which satisfies part of demands and reduces pressure on external grids. The full potential could be only achieved with improved infrastructures, and the profitability of the system relies heavily on market and political conditions. This study can be a refence for other high latitude areas.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2023
Keywords
Decentralized PV system, Grid networks, Swedish contexts, Techno-economic analysis, Urban areas
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-331448 (URN)10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16871 (DOI)001041541900001 ()37484290 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85161352148 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20230710

Available from: 2023-07-10 Created: 2023-07-10 Last updated: 2025-04-17Bibliographically approved
Guccione, S., Trevisan, S., Guédez, R. & Laumert, B. (2023). Thermodynamic Analysis of a Hybrid PV-Particle Based sCO2 Concentrating Solar Power Plant. In: AIP Conference Proceedings: . Paper presented at 27th International Conference on Concentrating Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems: Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems, SolarPACES 2021, Virtual, Online, NA, Sep 27 2021 - Oct 1 2021. AIP Publishing, Article ID 030007.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Thermodynamic Analysis of a Hybrid PV-Particle Based sCO2 Concentrating Solar Power Plant
2023 (English)In: AIP Conference Proceedings, AIP Publishing , 2023, article id 030007Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The present work performs a thermodynamic analysis of a hybrid CSP – PV plant characterized by a particle tower CSP running a supercritical CO2 power unit and a PV field. The two plants are hybridized by employing a particle electrical heater that allows to store the electricity produced in excess by the PV field as thermal energy in the CSP storage. The PV production is compensated by the CSP plant to achieve the maximum power that can be injected into the grid (25 MW). The main key performance indicators considered in this analysis are the capacity factor, the share of energy wasted, the annual energy yield, the electric heater utilization factor, and the share of TES charged by the electric heater. The influence of the plant solar multiple, storage size, PV nominal size, electric heater efficiency, and electric heater capacity has been assessed through different sensitivity analyses. The results show that it is worth hybridizing the system, indeed the solar power plant operates during summer continuously day and night, exploiting the advantages of the two technologies, while limiting their drawbacks. Plant configurations leading to a capacity factor higher than 81% with a share of energy wasted limited to 5% can be identified. The electric heater capacity and efficiency are shown to be highly important parameters, highlighting the need for further component development.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
AIP Publishing, 2023
Series
AIP Conference Proceedings
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-340367 (URN)10.1063/5.0149553 (DOI)2-s2.0-85177578062 (Scopus ID)
Conference
27th International Conference on Concentrating Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems: Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems, SolarPACES 2021, Virtual, Online, NA, Sep 27 2021 - Oct 1 2021
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 952953
Note

QC 20241023

Available from: 2023-12-06 Created: 2023-12-06 Last updated: 2024-10-23Bibliographically approved
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ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0001-7193-5303

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