Understanding the impacts of extractive industries on sustainable development requires analyzing them as part of dynamic social-ecological-technological systems. Building on insights from studies of social-ecological systems and socio-technical systems, as well as fieldwork on the impacts of mining in the Nordic Arctic, this article presents an analytical framework for co-production of knowledge about the role of industrial or infrastructure projects for regional development. We use this framework to analyze Swedish mining policy, assessment guidelines, and environmental impact assessments for three mining projects in Arctic Sweden. We conclude that Swedish mining policy and guidelines for impact assessments neglect key aspects of social-ecologicaltechnological systems, including the impacts of climate change, and treat many social aspects of sustainable development in a cursory manner. We suggest that more systematic analysis of the dynamics of social-ecologicaltechnological systems would facilitate more transparent decision making and help identify the potential role of proposed mining projects in pathways towards sustainable development in northern regions.

Since the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted in 2015, eorts areunderway to identify indicators for monitoring progress. However, perceptions of sustainabilityare scale and place specific, and there has also been a call for Sustainable Development Goals andindicators that are more relevant for the Arctic than the global perspectives. Based on earlier andongoing eorts to identify Arctic Social Indicators for monitoring human development, insights fromscenario workshops and interviews at various locations in the Barents region and Greenland andon studies of adaptive capacity and resilience in the Arctic, we provide an exploratory assessmentof the global SDGs and indicators from an Arctic perspective. We especially highlight a need foradditional attention to demography, including outmigration; indigenous rights; Arctic-relevantmeasures of economic development; and social capital and institutions that can support adaptationand transformation in this rapidly changing region. Issues brought up by the SDG frameworkthat need more attention in Arctic monitoring include gender, and food and energy security. Wefurthermore highlight a need for initiatives that can support bottom–up processes for identifyinglocally relevant indicators for sustainable development that could serve as a way to engage Arcticresidents and other regional and local actors in shaping the future of the region and local communities,within a global sustainability context.

Background

Mining activities, including prospecting, exploration, construction, operation, maintenance, expansion, abandonment, decommissioning and repurposing of a mine can impact social and environmental systems in a range of positive and negative, and direct and indirect ways. Mining can yield a range of benefits to societies, but it may also cause conflict, not least in relation to above-ground and sub-surface land use. Similarly, mining can alter environments, but remediation and mitigation can restore systems. Boreal and Arctic regions are sensitive to impacts from development, both on social and environmental systems. Native ecosystems and aboriginal human communities are typically affected by multiple stressors, including climate change and pollution, for example.

Methods

We will search a suite of bibliographic databases, online search engines and organisational websites for relevant research literature using a tested search strategy. We will also make a call for evidence to stakeholders that have been identified in the wider 3MK project (https://osf.io/cvh3u/). We will screen identified and retrieved articles at two distinct stages (title and abstract, and full text) according to a predetermined set of inclusion criteria, with consistency checks at each level to ensure criteria can be made operational. We will then extract detailed information relating to causal linkages between actions or impacts and measured outcomes, along with descriptive information about the articles and studies and enter data into an interactive systematic map database. We will visualise this database on an Evidence Atlas (an interactive, cartographic map) and identify knowledge gaps and clusters using Heat Maps (cross-tabulations of important variables, such as mineral type and studied impacts). We will identify good research practices that may support researchers in selecting the best study designs where these are clear in the evidence base.

Background: Since the 1960s, environmental impact assessments (EIAs) and recently, social impact assessments (SIAs), have been conducted during the planning stages of large development projects to identify potential adverse effects and propose mitigation measures to ameliorate these impacts. EIAs and SIAs should outline all possible positive and negative effects of a proposed action or development on ecological and social systems, respectively, including biodiversity, flora and fauna, abiotic components (such as air quality), human health, security and wellbeing. The work outlined herein aims to generate a list of all possible direct and indirect effects of metal mining (including gold, iron, copper, nickel, zinc, silver, molybdenum and lead) along with the impacts of mitigation measures proposed, that are mentioned in EIAs and SIAs in Arctic and boreal regions of the following countries/regions: Canada, Alaska (USA), Greenland, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Russia. Methods: We will conduct searches for environmental and social impact assessments in Swedish and English, and until theoretical saturation is reached (i.e. no new action-impact pathways are identified). We will perform searches of specialist websites (e.g. public repositories of environmental and social impact assessments) and Google Scholar. We will also contact relevant stakeholders (that have been identified in the wider 3MK project https://osf.io/cvh3u/) and make a call for additional information. Eligibility screening will be conducted at two levels: title and full text. Meta-data will be extracted from eligible studies including type of mining activity, location of mine, type of impacts, and planned mitigation measures. Findings will be presented narratively, in a searchable relational database and in an evidence altas (a cartographic map). We will produce a framework of different mining impacts and related mitigation measures from practitioners' knowledge reflected in EIAs and SIAs. This framework will further form the basis of a multiple knowledge base on mining impacts and mitigation measures generated from different knowledges including scientific, Indigenous, and practitioners' knowledge.

The Arctic has been narrated as both a region of cooperationand a region of conflict. This paper presents an analysis of how three Russian newspapers (Rossiyakaya Gazeta, Izvestiya and Novaya Gazeta) reported on the Arctic region between 2007 and 2016.The aim of the analysis is to provide a foundation for a discussion of Russian perceptions of conflict and cooperation in the Arctic in a decade when the desecuritization and peaceful cooperation that began in the late 1980s and early 1990s was challenged by a combination of changes to the physical environment and a shifting geopolitical landscape.The paper also explores how Russia’s narratives of conflict and cooperation fit into narratives about the region that have emerged in the international media. Last, the paper discusses what Russian media narratives can tell us about the priorities and future trends of Russia’s Arctic policy.

Participatory scenario methodologies are increasingly used for studying possible future developments in the Arctic. They have the potential to contribute to several high-priority tasks for Arctic research, such as integration of indigenous and local knowledge in futures studies, providing a platform for activating Arctic youth in shaping their futures, identifying Arctic-relevant indicators for sustainable development, and supporting decision-making towards sustainable futures. Yet, to achieve this potential, several methodological challenges need to be addressed. These include attention to whose voices are amplified or silenced in participatory research practices, with special attention to diversification and the engagement of youth. Given the historic and potential future role of disruptive events for Arctic development trajectories, methods are needed in participatory scenario exercises to include attention to the dynamics and consequences of such events and regime shifts. Participatory scenarios can also be further improved through approaches that effectively combine qualitative and quantitative information. Finally, there is a need for systematic studies of how the results of scenario exercises influence decision-making processes. This article elaborates on ways in which attention to these aspects can help make scenarios more robust for assessing a diversity of potential Arctic futures in times of rapid environmental and social change.