While it may be impossible to accurately predict what the world will look like in the future, we can be certain that it will be different from the world of today. By extension, we know that using today's data in life cycle assessment (LCA) studies claiming to represent future scenarios is problematic. For the future impact of products to be estimated in a consistent and meaningful manner in LCA, the background system, most commonly the ecoinvent database, needs to be projected into the future alongside the foreground system modeled in a given study. Futura is a new piece of open-source software which allows LCA practitioners to create and share novel background databases representing arbitrary scenarios. It allows users to import a base database and then start making targeted changes. These changes take three main forms—adding new technologies, regionalizing new or existing technologies, and altering market compositions. All changes made are automatically added to a "recipe." This recipe file can be shared publicly. This recipe can be imported by other users and used to exactly recreate the modified database. The additive and transparent nature of this system means that initially simple scenarios can be built upon by others to progress toward more comprehensive scenarios in a stepwise manner. The inability to build on the work of others is a serious barrier to the progress of the LCA field. Futura goes some way to reduce this barrier in the field of prospective LCA.

Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are one of the most important–albeit critical–commodities for our green technologies. However, there is a general perception that REEs are produced using mining and processing techniques that are unsustainable. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is the most widely accepted methodology to evaluate the environmental impacts of rare earth oxide (REO) production. This article aims to provide a synthesis of the currently existing LCA studies on REEs using two strategies. Firstly, an overview of published LCA results of REO production. Secondly, a detailed LCA using the best available life cycle inventories (LCIs) in order to: i). evaluate the state-of-the-art LCI for this sector ii). Understand better the impacts related to each of the three main production routes and iii). Contribute to the development of a preliminary benchmark for the sector. The analysis of the published LCA results reveal that the three main methodological issues with published LCAs are data gaps, allocation, and waste management. The dominating contributor to the global warming potential of the production of REOs in all two of the three routes is chemical extraction and separation.

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is one of the major areas of growth in consumption seen over the last two decades. The falling prices of ICT and increasing energy efficiency of ICT may lead to reduced spending on ICT and electricity in the future. However, lower spending in one area can trigger higher spending elsewhere, leading to 'rebound effects' which can reduce or even cancel out the environmental benefits associated with lower consumption of a given product or service, and reducing the efficacy of environmental policy. In this study we use Multi-Regional Input Output analysis to investigate trends in the consumption of, and environmental and social impacts associated with la products in Sweden and the EU. We find that ICT spending is linked to prosperity, with a clear fall as a result of the 2008 financial crisis, but a recovery since. There is some evidence that the environmental impact associated with ICE has begun to decouple from consumption in Sweden, but not at an EU level. Environmental rebound effects associated with reduced ICT consumption are strong close to, and in most cases far above 100% (so called backfire effects). This backfire effect is strongest for energy use and total material footprint, which are both close to 200% in Sweden. This means that an increased spending on ICE products and services while keeping the overall consumption level constant, would decrease environmental impacts. Environmental rebound effects are much lower for reduced energy spending (as low as 2 percent), particularly at an EU level. Rebound effects in social indicators are assessed for the first time for 10' products. We find that value added in the EU is relatively insensitive to changes in spending patterns related to ICT and energy (rebound effects similar to 100%), however rebound effects in employment are seen, particularly resulting from decreased energy spending. At an EU level, reallocation of spending resulting from lower energy consumption results in a net increase in employment, while in Sweden the reverse is true. We conclude that policies focused on reducing energy spending are likely to have a greater overall environmental effect than measures which result in reduced consumer spending on ICT. However, in light of the conflicting social rebound effects at an EU and Swedish level, the importance of understanding the broader consequences of policy decision across a broad range of measures in advance of their implementation is once again highlighted.

Purpose The majority of LCA studies begin with the drawing of a process flow diagram, which then needs to be translated manually into an LCA model. This study presents an initial image processing pipeline, implemented in an open-source software package, called lcopt-cv, which can be used to identify the boxes and links in a photograph of a hand-drawn process flow diagram and automatically create an LCA foreground model. Methods The computer vision pipeline consists of a total of 15 steps, beginning with loading the image file and conversion to greyscale. The background is equalised, then the foreground of the image is extracted from the background using thresholding. The lines are then dilated and closed to account for drawing errors. Contours in the image are detected and simplified, and rectangles (contours with four corners) are identified from the simplified contours as 'boxes'. Links between these boxes are identified using a flood-filling technique. Heuristic processing, based on knowledge of common practice in drawing of process flow diagrams, is then performed to more accurately identify the typology of the identified boxes and the direction of the links between them. Results and discussion The performance of the image processing pipeline was tested on four flow diagrams of increasing difficulty: one simple computer drawn diagram and three photographs of hand-drawn diagrams (a simple diagram, a complex diagram and a diagram with merged lines). A set of default values for the variables which define the pipeline was developed through trial and error. For the two simple flow charts, all boxes and links were identified using the default settings. The complex diagram required minor tweaks to the default values to detect all boxes and links. An 'unstacking' heuristic allowed the diagram with merged lines to be correctly processed. After some manual reclassification of link directions and process types, the diagrams were turned into LCA models and exported to open-source LCA software packages (lcopt and Brightway) to be verified and analysed. Conclusions This study demonstrates that it is possible to generate a fully functional LCA model from a picture of a flow chart. This has potentially important implications not only for LCA practitioners as a whole, but in particular for the teaching of LCA. Skipping the steep learning curve required by most LCA software packages allows teachers to focus on important LCA concepts, while participants maintain the benefits of experiential learning by doing a 'real' LCA.

Bauxite residue, the main waste product of alumina production, is a potentially valuable secondary resource. The MSCA-ETN REDMUD project aims to develop environmentally friendly technologies to realize this value, by extracting valuable metals (aluminium, iron, titanium, scandium, rare-earth elements) or utilizing it in construction applications. Simply utilizing a waste product as an input is not, however, sufficient to claim that a process is environmentally friendly; the processes developed must be demonstrably better for the environment, from a life cycle perspective, than business as usual. The earlier in the research and development process that environmental information can be taken into account, the more impact it can have on decision-making. In this study we demonstrate that Life Cycle Thinking approaches can provide actionable environmental information at an early stage in the research process, and that in doing so it can help steer early stage technology development towards overall improved industry environmental performance. Knowledge of the potential environmental benefit from displacing different materials can help identify primary or additional targets, for example the use of metal extraction residues for construction materials. A high-level 'red flags' assessment of the relative environmental impact of inputs to valorization processes and the products they displace can be used to identify problematic inputs and processes in the absence of quantitative details. Finally, once preliminary quantitative data are available for a process, streamlined Life Cycle Assessment can be used to calculate the environmental balance of a process, and identify specific hotspots of environmental impact.

High bauxite residue content inorganic polymer paving blocks have the potential not only to provide a solution to the ongoing waste management issues faced by the alumina sector, but to simultaneously provide low environmental impact building materials to the construction sector. In order to realise the potential of this emerging technology, it is important to understand where the hotspots of environmental impact are likely to occur, and identify routes to reduce this impact, at an early stage of development. In this study we use anticipatory Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to identify hotspots of environmental impact in the production of paving blocks made from inorganic polymers derived from bauxite residue. This technology has only been demonstrated at laboratory scale; however, production was modelled at industrial scale. The bauxite residue is fired in a rotary kiln in the presence of a carbon and silica source, in order to create a reactive precursor. When mixed with an alkali the precursor forms a solid block. Our results identify the firing process as the major hotspot of environmental impact, primarily due to the combustion of fossil fuels in the rotary kiln. Steps to reduce the impact of the firing step or to reduce the amount of fired precursor used in the final paving block are suggested as routes for future impact reduction. Optimisation of the environmental aspects of these building materials at an early stage in their development could lead to a promising future for high-volume bauxite residue valorisation at low environmental cost.

The potential impact of ionising radiation from enhanced exposure to Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM) to humans and the environment is not currently accounted for sufficiently in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Here we present midpoint and endpoint characterisation factors resulting from the implementation of impact assessment models for human health and ecosystems for NORM exposure. These models build upon existing fate, exposure and effect models from the LCA and radiological literature. The newly developed models are applied to a theoretical study of the utilisation of bauxite residue, a by-product of alumina processing enriched in natural radionuclides, in building materials. The ecosystem models have significant sensitivity to uncertainties surrounding the differential environmental fate of parent and daughter radionuclides that are produced as a part of decay chains, and to assumptions regarding long term releases from landfill sites. However, conservative results for environmental exposure suggest that in addition to landfill of materials, power consumption (burning coal and mining uranium) is a potentially significant source of radiological impact to the environment. From a human perspective, exposure to NORM in the use phase of building materials is the dominant source of impact, with environmental releases of nuclides playing a comparatively minor role. At an endpoint level, the impact of NORM exposure is highly significant in comparison to other impact categories in the area of protection of human health. The dose increase is of an order of magnitude comparable to lifestyle factors. The results highlight the importance within LCA of having sufficient impact assessment models to capture all potential impacts, such that issues of burden shifting between impact measures can be captured, interpreted and resolved in the optimisation of product systems.

Purpose Despite advances in the development of impact categories for ionising radiation, the focus on artificial radionuclides produced in the nuclear fuel cycle means that the potential impacts resulting from increased exposure to naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) are still only covered to a limited degree in life cycle assessment (LCA). Here, we present a potential framework for the inclusion of the exposure routes and impact pathways particular to NORM in LCA. Methods We assess the potential magnitude of enhanced NORM exposure, particularly in light of the potential use of NORM residues in building materials, and set out the potential exposure routes that may exist. We then assess the current state of the art, in terms of available fate, exposure and damage models, both within and outside of the LCA sphere. Finally, these exposure routes and modelling techniques are combined in order to lay out a potential framework for NORM assessment in LCA, both in terms of impact on humans and ecosystems. Results and discussion Increased exposure to NORM radionuclides can result either from their release to the environment or their proximity to humans as they reside in stockpiles, landfills or products. The exposure route via products is considered to be increasingly significant in light of current attempts to incorporate technologically enhanced NORMs (TENORM) including bauxite residue into building materials, by groups such as the ETN-MSCA REDMUD project. Impact assessment models for NORM exposure are therefore required to avoid potential burden shifting in the assessment of such TENORM products. Models describing the fate of environmental releases, the exhalation of radon from building products and the shielding effects on landfills/stockpiles are required to assess potential exposure. Subsequently, models relating exposure to radiation sources and the effective internal and external dose received by receptors are required. Finally, an assessment of the damage caused to the receptors is desirable. Conclusions A sufficient suite of currently existing and internationally recognised models exist that can, with varying degrees of modification, form the building blocks of a comprehensive NORM characterisation method for LCA. The challenge ahead lies in consolidating these models, from disparate fields, into a coherent and generally applicable method for the assessment of enhanced NORM exposure in LCA.

High bauxite residue content inorganic polymer paving blocks have the potential not only to provide a solution to the ongoing waste management issues faced by the alumina sector, but to simultaneously provide low environmental impact building materials to the construction sector. In order to realise the potential of this emerging technology, it is important to understand where the hotspots of environmental impact are likely to occur, and identify routes to reduce this impact, at an early stage of development. In this study we use anticipatory Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to identify hotspots of environmental impact in the production of paving blocks made from inorganic polymers derived from bauxite residue. This technology has only been demonstrated at laboratory scale; however, production was modelled at industrial scale. The bauxite residue is fired in a rotary kiln in the presence of a carbon and silica source, in order to create a reactive precursor. When mixed with an alkali the precursor forms a solid block. Our results identify the firing process as the major hotspot of environmental impact, primarily due to the combustion of fossil fuels in the rotary kiln. Steps to reduce the impact of the firing step or to reduce the amount of fired precursor used in the final paving block are suggested as routes for future impact reduction. Optimisation of the environmental aspects of these building materials at an early stage in their development could lead to a promising future for high-volume bauxite residue valorisation at low environmental cost.