This thesis, based on six scientific papers, explores analytical tools and methods for expanding society’s natural resource accounting and how systems thinking and future scenarios can be utilised to improve governance towards more sustainable development. The starting point is that traditional analyses frequently omit ecological dimensions, the potential to harness synergies, and they avoid goal conflicts and are often more retrospective than forward-looking.

The papers draw from economic theory, systems ecology, and futures studies. The first three papers contribute to natural resource accounting and capital theory and show how sustainability goals and their mutual interactions can be visualised and used to identify and prioritise synergies and goal conflicts. The latter three papers develop and apply qualitative normative backcasting scenarios, as well as tools and methods to illustrate them quantitatively and use them for policy analysis. The scenarios’ post-growth orientation, which focuses on social and ecological societal objectives rather than economic development, enables the analysis to be broadened to include policy instruments for achieving sustainable development beyond those traditionally discussed. By combining these perspectives, the thesis enables a more systemic and future-oriented approach to analysing sustainability issues.

The six papers in the thesis employ a broad range of methods to investigate sustainability-related resource accounting, interdependencies among sustainability goals, scenario planning, and policy analysis. Quantitative and qualitative methods are combined, where traditional literature reviews and economic valuation methods are complemented by network theory, expert assessments, workshops, and interviews. The methods are used to describe and quantify relationships among sustainability factors related to environment, economy, and society. In the latter papers, backcasting is also used to explore sustainable alternative futures beyond the economically oriented growth paradigm, and—as in article—identify which policy areas and proposals can facilitate progress towards sustainability goals. A common feature is the demonstration of how empirical data and forward-looking scenarios can be used alongside various academic disciplines and stakeholders to address the complexity of sustainability challenges and produce more applicable and legitimate research outcomes. 

The six papers in the thesis collectively address research gaps identified in the academic fields concerning the analysis of society’s resource use in relation to a more sustainable development, and how quantitative and qualitative methods can be improved and used to jointly make such sustainability analyses more systemic and forward-looking. 

By responding to the two overarching research questions—RQ1: How can integrated extended resource accounting be set up and leveraged to provide comprehensive decision support for sustainability governance? and RQ2: How can backcasting scenarios be used to qualitatively and quantitatively illustrate and analyse policy options for sustainable futures?—the six papers address the identified research gaps and thereby jointly provide contributions to bridging the disconnect between theoretical frameworks and practical decision-making. Answering RQ1, Papers 1 to 3 illustrate how assessments and analyses of quantitative ecosystem services, the concept of critical natural capital, and Sustainability Goals interdependency can enable comprehensive decision support. Addressing RQ2, by constructing and using backcasting scenarios Papers 4 to 6 illustrate how participatory methods and expanded quantitative models can be used to envision and assess policy options for sustainable futures, helping identify robust, multi-objective policies and strategies.

Concerning the first research question about integrated extended resource accounting, paper 1 contributed more comprehensive and detailed data into integrated resource accounting by extending quantitative methods to encompass a wider range of ecosystem services into forest accounting. Paper 2 added more analytical depth to the novel concept of critical natural capital, emphasising the resilience aspects of the regulatory and support ecosystem services, which act as insurance not only for ecosystem functions but also for human needs. 

Concerning the second research question about illustrating sustainable futures and policy analysis, Papers 4 to 6 focus on post-growth backcasting scenario construction and on developing methodologies for illustrating them quantitatively and testing how they could be used to ex-ante test policy robustness assessments. The contributions of Paper 4 concern how decision-makers can envision alternative post-growth futures, moving beyond business-as-usual trajectories and instead aiming to fulfil multi-faceted social and environmental goals, in which the post-growth focus and the multi-goal fulfilment were the novel aspects. The contributions of Paper 5 concern the expansion of the IPAT identity model used to describe the different scenarios and their goal fulfilment, where the technology-factor expansion included not only energy aspects but also novel material intensity and material circularity aspects, and a novel affluence-factor expansion deconstructing the GDP-per-capita-proxy into its labour and capital input-components, also introducing a capital-utilisation-term, allowing for the analysis of new policy options. Paper 6 contributed a new elaboration of policy robustness testing, using the scenarios and two workshop designs for ex-ante policy robustness assessments. Altogether, the thesis’ six papers strengthen cumulative research knowledge by expanding tools and methods which allow for more systemic, forward-looking, and integrated approaches that can bridge the gap between theory and application.

Denna avhandling bygger på sex vetenskapliga artiklar och undersöker hur samhället kan förbättra sitt arbete med hållbar utveckling. Fokus ligger på att utveckla metoder för att utvidga naturresursredovisningen samt att använda systemtänkande och framtidsscenarier för att stärka samhällsstyrning. En central utgångspunkt är att traditionella analyser ofta är mer bakåtblickande än framåtblickande och inte i tillräcklig utsträckning integrerar ekologiska dimensioner eller fångar möjligheten att både utnyttja synergier och undvika målkonflikter.

Avhandlingen besvarar två övergripande forskningsfrågor:

Hur en utvidgad och integrerad resursredovisning kan utformas och användas för att ge mer heltäckande beslutsstöd för hållbarhetsstyrning. Hur backcasting-scenarier kan användas för att kvalitativt och kvantitativt illustrera och analysera policyalternativ för hållbara framtider. De viktigaste bidragen i avhandlingen är:

att inkludera fler typer av ekosystemtjänster i utvidgade naturresursräkenskaper, att identifiera vilka av dessa som utgör kritiskt naturkapital, att utveckla metoder för att identifiera och storleksordningsbestämma synergier och målkonflikter mellan hållbarhetsmål, samt att utveckla hållbarhetsmålsuppfyllande scenarier, och med deras hjälp ta fram policyförslag, inklusive metoder för att i förväg bedöma deras robusthet. De sex artiklarna bidrar, vid tidpunkten då de skrevs och publicerades, till att besvara forskningsfrågor inom dessa områden. Artiklarna utgår från ekonomisk teori, system-ekologi och framtidsstudier. De tre första artiklarna fokuserar på naturresursredovisning och kapitalteori, inklusive vidareutveckling av utvidgad kapitalteori. De visar hur hållbarhetsmål påverkar varandra, särskilt inom Agenda 2030 och dess delmål. De introducerar också metoder för att identifiera och analysera synergier och målkonflikter, vilket ger bättre underlag för strategisk planering och policyutveckling.

Den första artikeln inkluderar fler ekosystemtjänster i monetära skogsräkenskaper och ger därmed mer omfattande och detaljerade data. Den andra artikeln fördjupar begreppet kritiskt naturkapital genom att koppla det till resiliens, vilket tydliggör vilka naturresurser som är avgörande att bevara. Den tredje artikeln introducerar metoder, bland annat baserade på nätverksteori, för att systematiskt kartlägga kopplingar mellan hållbarhetsmål och deras delmål.

De tre senare artiklarna fokuserar på framtiden och använder kvalitativa normativa backcasting-scenarier. Dessa utgår från önskvärda framtider och analyserar vilka förändringar som krävs för att nå dem. Scenarierna har en tydlig ”post-growth”-inriktning, där mål bortom ekonomisk tillväxt står i centrum. Det breddar vilka policyverktyg som kan analyseras jämfört med traditionella angreppssätt.

I dessa artiklar utvecklas också metoder för att kvantitativt beskriva scenarierna och använda dem i policyanalys. IPAT-modellen vidareutvecklas genom att teknologi-faktorn delas upp för att kunna omfatta såväl energiaspekter, materialintensitet som materialcirkularitet. Samtidigt bryts välståndsbegreppet ned från BNP per capita till arbets- och kapitalinsatser samt en separat komponent för kapitalutnyttjande. Detta gör det möjligt att analysera nya typer av policyalternativ och deras effekter.

Scenarierna används även för ex-ante-testning av policyrobusthet, där framtida osäkerheter beaktas innan beslut fattas. Detta sker bland annat genom särskilt utformade workshops och expertbedömningar, vilket stärker kopplingen mellan analys och praktiskt beslutsfattande.

Metodmässigt kombinerar avhandlingen kvantitativa och kvalitativa angreppssätt. Den förenar litteraturstudier och ekonomiska värderingsmetoder med nätverksteori, expertbedömningar, workshops och intervjuer. Metoderna används för att beskriva och kvantifiera samband mellan miljö, ekonomi och samhälle. Ett genomgående drag är att kombinera empiriska data med framtidsscenarier samt att involvera både olika akademiska discipliner och samhällsaktörer. Detta gör det möjligt att bättre fånga komplexiteten i hållbarhetsutmaningar och ta fram mer tillämpbara och legitima resultat.

I avhandlingens diskussionsdel integreras dessa perspektiv och jämförs med liknande tvärvetenskaplig hållbarhetsforskning. Resultaten förstärker tidigare forskningsinsikter om vikten av att integrera ekologiska och andra hållbarhetsfaktorer i beslutsunderlag och vidareutvecklar metoder för hur detta kan göras i praktiken. 

Sammantaget minskar avhandlingen gapet mellan teoretiska ramverk och praktiskt beslutsfattande. Den gör det genom att kombinera utvidgad resursredovisning med framtidsinriktad scenario- och policyanalys, vilket möjliggör mer systemiska, heltäckande och framåtblickande angreppssätt för hållbarhetsstyrning. 

This paper builds on four qualitative backcasting scenarios that illustrate sustainable futures in a Swedish setting. The paper complements the originally qualitative scenarios by developing an eight‐step modified and expanded IPAT model—originally describing environmental impact as a product of population, affluence, and technology—that also enables quantitative descriptions of the scenarios. The modified and expanded IPAT model is used to show how the scenarios can stay within the climate aspect of sustainability. The result is quantified descriptions of the development paths of energyrelated carbon dioxide emissions, working hours, man‐made capital stocks, recycled and nonrecycled materials used, and different types of energy used in the four scenarios. The four main findings are (a) the back‐bone instrument in making the energy system fossilfree will, in all scenarios, substitute fossil energy with renewable energy; (b) however, to succeed with that it is necessary to use different mixes of many complementary climate policy instruments; (c) IPAT models can be modified and expanded in many different ways to act as quantitative descriptions of different technological developments and social changes in scenario exercises; (d) by disregarding gross domestic product as a proxy for affluence, and replacing it with labor and capital, behavioral concepts like sharing and prolonged product lifetimes can more easily be introduced as climate policy options in a modified and expanded IPAT model.

Bakgrund: Hur hamnade vi här (sid 16-28)

av Carl-Johan Engström, Kristian Skånberg och Erik Stenberg

Byggandet utgör en stor delav de svenska samhälleligainvesteringarna. Boendet ståri sin tur för den enskilt störstaposten i de flestas hushållsbudget.Detta gör att det sammantagethandlar om mycket stora pengaroch resursflöden kopplade tillhållbarhetsfrågor. Det rör ocksåde miljöer där de flesta människortillbringar merparten av sina liv,med alla de beröringspunkter kringsocial hållbarhet som detta för medsig. Det gör förändringar mycket angelägna.

Byggandet: Kolsänka och energiproducent

av Victoria Kalén och Erik Stenberg (sid 55-61)

Bygg- och fastighetssektorn stårför en stor del av samhälletsutsläpp av växthusgaser. År 2015var de inhemska utsläppen avväxthusgaser ca 11,1 miljonerton koldioxidekvivalenter. Detmotsvarade 18 procent av Sverigestotala utsläpp av växthusgaser.Lägger vi till utsläppen som byggochfastighetssektorn genererarutomlands så blir totalen över 20miljoner ton koldioxidekvivalenter.Boverkets miljöindikatorer visaratt bygg- och fastighetssektornsmiljöpåverkan ökat ytterligaresedan dess. Dessutom kommervia de globala varukedjorna förbyggmaterial ytterligare uppemot 10miljoner ton koldioxidekvivalenter ini den svenska byggprocessen årligen.Ur ett konsumtionsperspektiv äralltså de byggrelaterade utsläppenännu högre.

Hela rapporten:

En ny plattform för att lösa bostadsfrågan är en antologi skriven av sex författare i samråd med Global Utmanings programråd för Hållbara Städer. Antologin tar avstamp i bostadsfrågan ur ett historiskt perspektiv och belyser frågan utifrån den gemensamma strategin för en hållbara omställning – Agenda 2030. Plattformen hanterar en såväl ekonomisk, som social och miljömässig omställning av ”bostadsfrågan”, det vill säga boendet, byggandet och stadsutvecklingen. Antologin innehåller dels förslaget till plattform för samverkan och dels fem bidrag som konkretiserar problem och utmaningar.

A future society no longer based on economic growth – what would that look like?The research program “Beyond GDP Growth: Scenarios for sustainable building and planning” (www.bortombnptillvaxt.se) is a strong research environment funded by the Swedish Research CouncilFormas, which has run between 2014 and 2018. In collaboration with societal partners, the program hasgathered researchers from diferent disciplines to explore key issues and conditions for planning for asustainable future beyond GDP growth. This is a relevant contribution to a largely under-researchedarea, where few scientific studies have explored what a sustainable society could look like, and what asustainable economy that is not based on growth might actually mean.In economic and political discussions, the notion of continuous economic growth is often taken forgranted and seen as a prerequisite for a safe and sustainable societal development. At the same time,a blind faith in and expectations surrounding growth can constitute a threat to the development of asustainable society if growth declines. Also an optimistic prognosis from the OECD indicates that it islikely that future GDP growth will be lower than what has come to be seen as the normal level duringthe second half of the 20th century. Declining economic growth could mean risks for increased socialgaps and unemployment. However, economic models show that the possibilities for handling these risksincrease if there is an awareness of them, and if this is addressed politically. Therefore, it is important tonot just assume continued economic growth, but to plan also for alternative scenarios.A starting point for the research program has been an understanding of the significant transitionsneeded to approach a safe and just operating space for humanity within planetary boundaries. Fourgoals that should be met in order to consider the societal development sustainable were specified: twoenvironmental goals related to climate and land use, and two social goals regarding power, influence andparticipation, and welfare and resource security.Four scenarios for Sweden 2050 were developed, which show the diferent directions society could taketo reach the set sustainability goals. The scenarios illustrate future societies that do not have to build onthe current economic logic, but that instead are centred around four alternative strategies:Collaborative EconomyLocal Self-SufciencyAutomation for Quality of LifeCircular Economy in the Welfare StateSo, can we reach the selected sustainability targets in the four future scenarios? A transformation ofhistorical proportions are needed – and it needs to start immediately. According to the sustainabilityassessment conducted within the project, the environmental goals of climate and land use can be reachedin all scenarios, even though it demands changing multiple parameters at the same time. Nothing pointsto it being impossible or generally difcult to achieve the social goals in the four scenarios, however theremight be diferent aspects that are particularly tricky. There are both development potentials and risks,which can be diametrically opposite for diferent social groups and parts of the country, depending onthe local prerequisites.Many diferent images of sustainable futures are needed. The scenarios should be seen as a tool fordiscussion and analysis when it comes to planning for a sustainable societal development beyondGDP growth. They challenge notions of what is possible, what changes that can and should be made,6what decisions that are needed and what should be prioritized. The scenarios all suggest a largechange compared the current development trajectory, and for example all point towards the need forredistribution of resources. It might involve economic resources, but could also relate to power andinfluence over production, or the possibility to use land for production of food, materials and energy.This redistribution could happen according to diferent principles in the diferent scenarios.In all the scenarios, the consumption of goods and of meat is reduced. Flight travel also needs to bedrastically reduced to reach the climate target. There is furthermore a need for reducing the constructionof both housing and road infrastructure, although to varying extents in the four scenarios. Other aspectssuch as working hours, the organization of welfare systems, the characteristics of the built environmentand the amount of infrastructure needed are on the other hand diferent in the diferent scenarios.The research program has explored what a development that isn't based on economic growth, in linewith the strategies that are depicted in the scenarios, would mean for rural as well as urban conditions.Three case study municipalities were selected with regards to their diferent geographical location,built form, economic development and size of the population: Övertorneå, Alingsås and Malmö. Insome sub-studies in these diferent contexts, descriptions emerged of cognitive as well as structuralbarriers, a sense of powerlessness and a weak capacity for transition among diferent actors. This isconnected to expectations and general assumptions regarding growth, partly irrespective of the context.Municipalities and companies to a large extent plan for and expect a societal development that buildsupon a further expansion of infrastructure, transport and consumption. Despite visions for sustainabledevelopment, in practice this often leads to a reproduction of current unsustainable structures and waysof life.At the same time, specific empirical studies within the project point toward stories of self-sufciency,of regional upswings and that the population is more important than GDP. There is an increasedawareness and a multitude of examples of experimenting with new sustainable practices that constituteseeds for change. Critiques against planning for continuous growth is being taken more seriously andclearer political visions are demanded. New forms of organizing the economy, society and welfare arealso being developed. Some examples include working from a perspective on socio-ecological justice,integration of sustainability targets in all planning, and developing new roles for consumers andproducers. These ideas can be seen as windows of opportunity, but also show that change can happenwithin the current system.The future means change. In this research program, we point towards some possible futures that aimat reaching certain sustainability targets. The scenarios and the discussion and analysis that they havebrought about show that there is an opportunity to move towards a sustainable development withmaintained or even increased well-being – provided that the understanding of well-being is based onother values than those of our current society. For these possible future trajectories to gain support,there is a need of political instruments and measures that actively drive the development towards a justand safe operating space for humanity

The idea of continued economic growth is increasingly questioned and critically analysed on the basis of its potential negative sustainability impact. Along with the critique, visions and strategies for alternative systems need also be brought onto the agenda. The aim of this paper is to present the qualitative content of scenarios that explore sustainability strategies for the Swedish society when economic growth is not seen as an end in itself, and instead the objective is other values/targets that society might wish to achieve. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are developed that illustrate future states in which four sustainability targets (climate, land use, participation, and resource security) are to be attained. The focus of these four scenarios is: 1) a Collaborative economy, 2) Local self-sufficiency, 3) Automation for quality of life, and 4) Circular economy in the welfare state. In the paper, we also present the process of the development of the scenarios, and feedback from stakeholders. Although the focus is on Sweden, the process and scenarios may also be relevant for other similar countries. The scenarios are discussed in terms of their relevance and their purpose, the fulfilment of the sustainability targets, and the multi-target approach.

How the sustainable development goals (SDGs) interact with each other has emerged as a key question in the implementation of the 2030 Agenda, as it has potentially strong implications for prioritization of actions and their effectiveness. So far, analysis of interactions has been very basic, typically starting from one SDG, counting the number of interactions, and discussing synergies and trade-offs from the perspective of that issue area. This paper pushes the frontier of how interactions amongst SDG targets can be understood and taken into account in policy and planning. It presents an approach to assessing systemic and contextual interactions of SDG targets, using a typology for scoring interactions in a cross-impact matrix and using network analysis techniques to explore the data. By considering how a target interacts with another target and how that target in turn interacts with other targets, results provide a more robust basis for priority setting of SDG efforts. The analysis identifies which targets have the most and least positive influence on the network and thus guides, where efforts may be directed (and not); where strong positive and negative links sit, raising warning flags to areas requiring extra attention; and how targets that reinforce each others' progress cluster, suggesting where important cross-sectoral collaboration between actors is merited. How interactions play out is context specific and the approach is tested on the case of Sweden to illustrate how priority setting, with the objective to enhance progress across all 17 SDGs, might change if systemic impacts are taken into consideration.

Complex dynamic ecosystems are important natural capital assets. We investigate how Swedish national policy has approached these assets in its work on environmental indicators. In particular, we are interested in whether or not the indicators address ecosystem performance. We discuss our inventory of Swedish indicators in the context of ecosystem services, such as source and sink functions, and the capacity of ecosystems to sustain these functions for human well-being. We find that effective indicators have been developed to reflect energy and material flows within society and how human activities put pressure on the environment. The part of natural capital that concerns living systems is reflected in several of the Swedish indicators in a progressive fashion, but indicators that capture the dynamic capacity of ecosystems in sustaining the flow of source and sink functions need to be further developed. We provide examples of recent developments that have started to address such indicators in the context of ecosystem resilience and environmental change, and discuss directions for their further development. We stress the importance of monitoring ecosystem resilience and performance to avoid undesirable state shifts and building ecological knowledge and understanding of this capacity into environmental indicators and their associated management institutions.

There is substantial current interest in expanding accounting systems, such that they include services appropriated from the ecological systems. Much of this activity has focused upon forest resources; there are currently more than 100 «green» forest accounting studies, covering many different countries. This paper provides a view of some theoretical and empirical issues on «green» forest accounting. It discusses some issues in calculating «true» income from forests, as well as the measurement problems that arise when valuing non-priced services. It also reviews recent efforts at EUROSTAT and includes a detailed illustration of a comprehensive official Swedish application on «green» forest accounting. The paper concludes by arguing that future work on green forest accounting should be directed towards tying together theory and practice to a even larger extent than what is currently the case.