Passenger cars contribute considerably to total emissions of greenhouse gasses. In this article, we develop scenarios for the Swedish passenger car fleet in 2030, achieving a 70% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions as compared to 2010. The number of shared and electric cars, how they are combined, and levels of biofuel use differ between the scenarios. Transport volumes, car access, battery use, indirect emissions, and fleet development are evaluated and compared. Conclusions based on the scenarios include:

• Target-fulfillment requires a reduction in kilometers traveled by passenger cars. The reductions are 21%–47% per capita in six scenarios.
• Major changes to both removal rate and new car sales are needed, highlighting a policy challenge for the coming decade.
• Total battery capacity in the vehicle fleet increase from 1 GWh 2018 to 73–168 GWh in the six scenarios. This implies a need for careful consideration regarding resource scarcity and production capacity. A new metric, vehicle kilometers/(kWh*year), is developed and tested to explore efficiency in battery use.
• Reducing direct emissions through a high production of electric cars causes tensions in relation to the European Emissions Trading System due to the indirect emissions that arise. It is therefore important to consider indirect emissions in policymaking.

Although rebound effects are well-known as a phenomenon, the question of how to avoid and minimize rebound effects have largely been ignored in practical policy. In this study, five concrete cases of measures and policies in the transport sector illustrate primary effects, rebound effects and possible strategies to avoid or minimize rebound effects. The cases were explored and analyzed in a series of workshops involving in total 15 researchers and societal actors. In addition to the net impact of primary and rebound effects, factors such as the time horizon and the reversibility of the effect may also be important for the evaluation of measures and policies. To detect and avoid rebound effects - and to assess the effectiveness of a policy - a system perspective is needed rather than a narrow sector focus. When designing measures, broad system-wide strategies or specific measures addressing particularly emission-intensive activities tend to be most effective for avoiding rebound.

Current European parking policies do not seem to steer towards a future where urban transport meets the climate goals. Prominent in current housing and parking policies are the so-called minimum parking standards. Recent research has shown that they contribute to increased car use and consequently to higher CO2 emissions. This is because they contribute to urban sprawl, extensive land use, increased housing and infrastructure construction costs, and that they restrict the number of flats per urban land unit. Other recent research shows that the construction of underground garages causes considerable CO2 emissions. This paper is based on previous research on the development of the transport sector to be in line with climate targets (i.e., the Paris Agreement). It intends to fill a research gap regarding how parking management can be designed to be consistent with these targets. Through a future study approach with Stockholm as a case example, this paper illustrates a policy shift in parking policies considered to be in line with national climate targets. The article presents concrete indicators to quantify the scope of change needed (e.g., removing 60,000 residential parking spaces and providing vehicle sharing with 7,500 cars and at least 7,500 bikes). The focus shift goes from providing physical parking spaces to providing satisfactory mobility and accessibility. We outline a pathway towards a future scenario of parking and mobility in Stockholm, with a combination of mobility services, parking restrictions (e.g., cap on parking spaces, removal of minimum parking standards), and citizen participation. The pathway is also analysed regarding equity, feasibility, and acceptance.

In many industrialised countries, the climate impact from long-distance travel is greater than that from short-distance travel. In this paper, we present five scenarios for long-distance travel in 2060, which are consistent with a 67% probability of limiting global warming to 1.8 degrees. The scenarios concern travel by the Swedish population, but per capita travel volume and fuel use could be generalised globally. A key result is that all scenarios require reductions in Swedish per capita air travel in the range of 38-59% compared to 2017. The direct effect on air travel of implementing a high-speed rail network in Sweden and Northern Europe was found to be modest. A higher emission reduction could be achieved if mixed mode trips comprising rail and air legs were more widely adopted. Finally, the pros and cons of future aviation fuels are discussed, the main candidates being biofuel, electrofuel, and liquid hydrogen.

Air travel accounts for a major share of individual greenhouse gas emissions, particularly for people in high-income countries. Until recently, few have reduced flying because of climate concerns, but currently, a movement for staying on the ground is rising. Sweden has been a focal point for this movement, particularly during 2018-2019, when a flight tax was introduced, and air travel reduction was intensely discussed in the media. We performed semi-structured interviews with Swedish residents, focusing primarily on individuals who have reduced flying because of its climate impact. We explore how such individual transformation of air travel behavior comes about, and the phases and components of this process. Applying a framework of sustainability transformation, we identify incentives and barriers in personal and political spheres. We show that internalized knowledge about climate change and the impact of air travel is crucial for instigating behavioral change. Awareness evokes negative emotions leading to a personal tipping point where a decision to reduce or quit flying is made. However, the process is often counteracted by both personal values and political structures promoting air travel. Even individuals with a strong drive to reduce flying feel trapped in social practices, norms and infrastructures. Hence, we argue that personal and political spheres interact complexly and to reduce flying at larger scales, interventions are needed across spheres, e.g., change of norms, effective policy instruments and better alternatives to air travel.