As of 2021, 675 million people globally lack access to electricity. Geospatial electrification tools can be used to identify the mix of grid-extension, mini-grids and stand-alone technologies that can supply currently unelectrified areas at the lowest cost. Several such tools have been developed, at different levels of modelling detail and complexity. In this paper, we improve the Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) to develop a flexible geospatial electrification tool that can still run lighter rapid assessments for a first estimate of the technology split, but now also more detailed analysis with higher spatial and temporal resolution used for grid routing, distribution network design and optimization of hybrid mini-grid generation introduced through new algorithms. We compare the existing light and new detailed versions of the tool through a case study of the north-western parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We find that the new grid routing algorithm lead to more off-grid technologies, and that the detailed design of distribution networks lead to a reduction in stand-alone technologies. The detailed optimization of hybrid mini-grids display varying effects at different demand levels. Given the increased computational effort that is observed with higher modelling detail, we discuss the implications for scenario design and selection of geospatial electrification tool for future analyses aiming to support the achievement of SDG 7.

Human settlements are usually nucleated around manmade central points or distinctive natural features, forming clusters that vary in shape and size. However, population distribution in geo-sciences is often represented in the form of pixelated rasters. Rasters indicate population density at predefined spatial resolutions, but are unable to capture the actual shape or size of settlements. Here we suggest a methodology that translates high-resolution raster population data into vector-based population clusters. We use open-source data and develop an open-access algorithm tailored for low and middle-income countries with data scarcity issues. Each cluster includes unique characteristics indicating population, electrification rate and urban-rural categorization. Results are validated against national electrification rates provided by the World Bank and data from selected Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). We find that our modeled national electrification rates are consistent with the rates reported by the World Bank, while the modeled urban/rural classification has 88% accuracy. By delineating settlements, this dataset can complement existing raster population data in studies such as energy planning, urban planning and disease response.

The North Western Sahara Aquifer System (NWSAS) is a vital groundwater source in a notably water-scarce region. However, impetuous agricultural expansion and poor resource management (e.g., over-irrigation, inefficient techniques) over the past decades have raised a number of challenges. In this exploratory study, we introduce an open access GIS-based model to help answer selected timely questions related to the agriculture, water and energy nexus in the region. First, the model uses spatial and tabular data to identify the location and extent of irrigated cropland. Then, it employs spatially explicit climatic datasets and mathematical formulation to estimate water and electricity requirements for groundwater irrigation in all identified locations. Finally, it evaluates selected supply options to meet the electricity demand and suggests the least-cost configuration in each location. Results indicate that full irrigation in the basin requires similar to 3.25 billion million m(3)per year. This translates to similar to 730 GWh of electricity. Fossil fuels do provide the least-cost electricity supply option due to lower capital and subsidized operating costs. Hence, to improve the competitiveness of renewable technologies (RT) (i.e., solar), a support scheme to drop the capital cost of RTs is critically needed. Finally, moving towards drip irrigation can lead to similar to 47% of water abstraction savings in the NWSAS area.

Achieving universal access to electricity by 2030 is a key part of the Agenda for Sustainable Development, and has its own Sustainable Development Goal, SDG 7.1. This is because electricity services are required for almost all aspects of a modern economy, from the cooling of vaccines to irrigation pumping, to manufacturing and running a business. The achievement of SDG 7.1 will require a thoughtful mix of policy, finance, and technology to be designed and implemented at scale. Yet, the pressing need for an electrification ramp-up is not unprecedented. Many countries (now considered “industrialized”) faced similar challenges about a century ago. Although the existing literature covers a great deal of power systems evolution, there is a gap around the specific role and impact of small, isolated power systems in the early stages of electricity uptake. In this paper, we provide insights based on the review of the historical electrification efforts in four (now middle and high-income) countries. The drivers and context of electrification efforts in early stages are described. Those focus particularly on the role of dispersed, small-scale generation systems (mini-grids). Our analysis shows that electrification follows four loosely defined phases, namely: pilot projects, technological roll-out, economic expansion, and social scale-up. We report a selection of historical mistakes and advances that offer lessons of striking importance for today´s energy access efforts, particularly in regards to the development of mini-grids. We find that today, as historically, multi-stakeholder (e.g., planners, regulators, developers, investors, third party actors) collaboration is key and can help build locally adaptable, economically sustainable and community compatible mini-grids that can accelerate—and lower the societal costs of—universal access to electricity.

I skrivande stund uppskattas 860 miljoner människor globalt sakna tillgång till el. Målet att uppnå universal tillgång till el under det kommande decenniet – i enlighet med mål 7 av de globala målen för hållbar utveckling (SDG 7) – indikerar att många länder snart kommer att behöva införa riktlinjer, handlingsplaner och policys för att påskynda elektrifieringstakten. Detta utgör en stor utmaning och kräver betydande ekonomiska resurser så att tillgången till el kan nå även den fattiga landsbygdsbefolkningen i de minst utvecklade områdena.

En återblick genom historien avslöjar emellertid att en sådan påskyndning inte är unik. Många länder i ”den globala norden” har ställts inför liknande utmaningar för ungefär ett århundrade sedan. Tidigare exempel visar att elektrifieringsplanering – och medföljande politik – kan ta olika former baserat på underliggande sociala, tekniska, ekonomiska och politiska förhållanden. Detta framhäver vikten av att ta hänsyn till input på olika nivåer. Det belyser också behovet av tillförlitlig data och information som på bästa sätt beskriver den lokala kontexten (t.ex. resurstillgänglighet, befolkningsfördelning, ekonomisk verksamhet och infrastruktur). Samtidigt som framsteg inom geospatial informationsteknik har gjorts, har också tillgängligheten till sådan information ökat kraftigt. Fortfarande nyttjas dock inte denna information till sin fulla potential inom elektrifieringsplanering.

Denna avhandling syftar till att främja användandet av geospatiala informationssystem inom elektrifieringsplanering genom att presentera nya data, metoder, tillämpningar och insikter. Detta görs med hjälp av fyra artiklar och tre forskningsfrågor.

Den första frågan söker efter mönster, politiska dilemman och begränsningar relaterade till elektrifiering genom olika tidsepoker och geografiska områden. Analysen av dessa kan informera aktuella och framtida planeringsaktiviteter för elektrifiering. Därför tar artikel I en tillbakablick på elektrifieringsutmaningar i USA, Storbritannien, Sverige och Kina, samt undersöker strategier, framgångshistorier och misslyckanden i respektive fall. Resultaten avslöjar viktiga lärdomar om utvecklingsfaserna för elektrifiering – med fokus på rollen som lokala isolerade elnät har.

Den andra frågan berör huruvida användandet av geospatial information kan introducera nya data och metoder i ett befintligt modelleringsramverk (t.ex. OnSSET) och hjälpa till med hanteringen av olika dilemman som uppstår vid elektrifieringsplanering. Artikel II fokuserar därför på nya öppet tillgängliga dataset för att göra spatialt explicita bedömningar av småskalig vattenkraftpotential i Afrika söder om Sahara. I artikel III beskrivs 26 nya, uppdaterade eller tidigare ej tillgängliga dataset, som efter bearbetning möjliggör nya synvinklar och analys för elektrifieringsplanering.

Den tredje forskningsfrågan fokuserar på hur OnSSET kan förbättras, öppnas upp och skalas upp så att en bredare publik på ett snabbt sätt kan utveckla informativa investeringsstrategier för elektrifiering som är både lands- och sammanhangsspecifika. Här utnyttjar artikel III och IV OnSSETs modulära struktur för att kalibrera dess funktioner och utveckla anpassade investeringsscenarion för elektrifiering av Malawi och Afghanistan. Dessa utforskar olika scenarion som är anpassade efter den politiska situationen i vardera av de två länderna (t.ex. gradvis elektrifiering för Malawi eller planering i konflikzoner för Afghanistan). Dessutom har denna avhandling utökat tillämpningen av OnSSET, genom plattformen Global Electrification Platform (GEP). GEP är en öppen plattform som möjliggör öppen åtkomst till 216 investeringsscenarion för elektrifiering (tillsammans med underliggande inputdata och modeller) för 59 länder världen över. All data på plattformen är tillgänglig för granskning, reproduktion och replikering för en bredare publik.​

​

Globally, it is estimated that there are approximately 860 million people without access to electricity. Achieving universal electricity access over the next decade – as part of Sustainable Development Goal 7 – indicates that many countries will soon need to set in place roadmaps, action plans and policy for ramping-up electrification. The challenge is significant. It requires the motivation of considerable financial resources so that electricity can reach poor, rural populations in least developed areas. 

A look back at history however, reveals that such a ramp-up of electrification activity is not unprecedented. Many countries in the “Global North” have faced similar challenges about a century ago. Past examples indicate that electrification planning – and ensuing policy – can take different shapes based on underlying social, technological, economic and political conditions. This brings forward the importance of considering inputs that reflect these conditions. It also highlights the need for reliable data and information that best describe the local context (e.g. resource availability, distribution of population, economic activities or infrastructure). While advancements in geo-spatial information technology have greatly improved the availability of such information in the past years, their use in electrification planning is not fully exploited. 

This dissertation aims to advance the state of geospatial electrification modelling by demonstrating new data, methods, applications and insights over the course of four academic papers covering three research questions. 

The first question searches for common – across different times and geographies – patterns, policy dilemmas and constraints related to electrification, the reading of which can shed light on current and future electrification planning activities. In response, paper I takes a retrospective look into the electrification challenge in the United States of America, the United Kingdom, Sweden and China and examines strategies, success stories and failures in each case. Results unveil key lessons regarding the development phases of electrification - with a focus on the role of isolated, small mini-grids. 

The second question asks whether the use of geospatial information technology can introduce new data and methods into an existing modelling framework (e.g. OnSSET) and help tackle electrification planning dilemmas. In response, paper II leverages new open access datasets to provide spatially explicit estimates of small-scale hydropower potential in Sub-Saharan Africa. Paper III demonstrates twenty-six new, updated or missing datasets, the processing of which allows new angles of analysis over electrification planning.

The third research question focuses on how the OnSSET modelling framework can be improved, open sourced and scaled so as to allow a broader audience develop fast, informative, country and context specific electrification investment strategies. Here, papers III and IV, leverage OnSSET’s modular structure, calibrate its functions and develop customized electrification investment outlooks for Malawi and Afghanistan respectively. These, explore different scenarios tuned according to the policy challenges in each country (e.g. gradual electrification in Malawi or planning under conflict risk in Afghanistan). Moreover, this dissertation has expanded OnSSET’s application range as part of the Global Electrification Platform (GEP). The GEP is an open access, collaborative environment that now hosts 216 electrification investment scenarios (together with underlying input data and models) for 59 countries worldwide, thus improving the transparency surrounding their review, reproduction or replication by a broader audience.​

We have identified input values that were not harmonized with the paper and have therefore submitted this corrigendum. Qualitatively, there are no major differences between the two versions, and the insights generated are unchanged. However, part of the results, figures and discussion needed to be updated based on the new findings. We present those in the form of a corrigendum. In the model runs there were input parameters that were not harmonized with the published paper as seen in annex in table 1. Therefore, to amend the incurred values, we have re-run the model and updated the following sections of the paper.

The authors wish to make a change in author names (adding new author—Dimitrios Mentis) to this paper [1]: Author Contributions On page 19, author contributions are updated as follows: Conceptualization, A.K., D.M. and M.H.; Methodology, A.K., A.S., B.K. and D.M.; Software, A.K., B.K., A.S. and C.A.; Validation, M.H.; Formal Analysis, A.K.; Investigation, A.K.; Resources, A.K. and B.K.; Data Curation, A.K., B.K. and A.S.; Writing—Original Draft Preparation, A.K.; Writing—Review and Editing, A.K., D.M., M.H., C.A.; Visualization, A.K. and B.K.; Supervision, M.H.; Project Administration, M.H.; Funding Acquisition, M.H., D.M. and A.K. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. Funding On page 19, funding sources are updated as follows: This research was funded by the World Bank under the contract number 7185716 and partially by (a) the Swedish Center for Smart Grids and Energy Storage (SweGRIDS-ABB) under grant VF-2015-0018 and (b) the ÅForsk Foundation under grant 17-604. The authors would like to apologize for any inconvenience caused to the readers and contributors by these changes. The changes do not a ect the scientific results. The manuscript will be updated, and the original will remain online on the article webpage, with a reference to this correction.

Universal electrification by 2030 is an important goal of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7. Electricity provision no longer relies only on centralized grid expansion, but also on off-grid and mini-grid systems. Although this technological diversity holds promise, the technologies differ both physically and institutionally in electricity delivery. These differences raise equity and justice concerns around how they are implemented. For example, how can electricity be kept affordable for all consumers when access is provided by various technologies operated under different business models? This paper addresses this aspect of affordability and sheds light on how the SDG7 target could be met more equitably and fairly. We use a novel analytical methodology to apply two different principles of justice - equality and equity - to incorporate affordability into electricity pricing. Using a geospatial electrification model and Tanzania as a case study, we first arrive at price levels based on the principle(s) of justice. Then, we produce location-specific recommendations for subsidy levels needed to ensure those price levels. We find that the equity approach benefits a bigger section of the population than the equality approach. Moreover, the former costs significantly less per capita than the latter. Having said that, the equity approach is complex and therefore harder to implement. The methodological framework proposed in this study acts as a proof-of-concept for examining concerns around distributive justice using quantitative energy modelling tools and drawing policy relevant insights for energy planning in developing countries. Additionally, by focusing on the spatial aspects of energy access and the issue of fairness, the study also contributes to the growing conceptualizations of energy justice.

Roughly two billion people live in areas that regularly suffer from conflict, violence, and instability. Infrastructure development in those areas is very difficult to implement and fund. As an example, electrification systems face major challenges such as ensuring the security of the workforce or reliability of power supply. This paper presents electrification results from an explorative methodology, where the costs and risks of conflict are explicitly considered in a geo-spatial, least cost electrification model. Discount factor and risk premium adjustments are introduced per technology and location in order to examine changes in electrification outlooks in Afghanistan. Findings indicate that the cost optimal electrification mix is very sensitive to the local context; yet, certain patterns emerge. Urban populations create a strong consumer base for grid electricity, in some cases even under higher risk. For peri-urban and rural areas, electrification options are more sensitive to conflict-induced risk variation. In this paper, we identify these inflection points, quantify key decision parameters, and present policy recommendations for universal electrification of Afghanistan by 2030.

Achieving universal access to electricity is a development challenge many countries are currently battling with. The advancement of information technology has, among others, vastly improved the availability of geographic data and information. That, in turn, has had a considerable impact on tracking progress as well as better informing decision making in the field of electrification. This paper provides an overview of open access geospatial data and GIS based electrification models aiming to support SDG7, while discussing their role in answering difficult policy questions. Upon those, an updated version of the Open Source Spatial Electrification Toolkit (OnSSET-2018) is introduced and tested against the case study of Malawi. At a cost of $1.83 billion the baseline scenario indicates that off-grid PV is the least cost electrification option for 67.4% Malawians, while grid extension can connect about 32.6% of population in 2030. Sensitivity analysis however, indicates that the electricity demand projection determines significantly both the least cost technology mix and the investment required, with the latter ranging between $1.65-7.78 billion.