Hector Rail AB is a Swedish line haul provider for the European Rail Transport Market. On one line, Hector Rail transports large cylinder-shaped paper rolls of different sizes from Holmsund to Skövde, and compressed recycled paper shaped as cubes back to Holmsund. The wheels of their Y25 bogie wagons are experiencing surface initiated rolling contact fatigue (RCF), which is increasing the maintenance cost and sometimes interrupting the time schedule. In a collaboration with KTH Royal Institute of Technology a study of the risk of developing RCF cracks when comparing different track qualities, load cases, speeds, curves and wheel-rail friction coefficients as well as the consideration of wear is carried out. The results show the difference in surface initiated RCF when applying the different input parameters, including the location along the track where the wheels are likely to initiate RCF, as well as the location of RCF on the wheels. The model also provides the curve cases where the wheels are most likely to initiate RCF. This tool can be used for optimising and further streamlining the operation for freight traffic on any line with respect to wheel damages and planned maintenance.