In this article we report on the effects of recent changes in tax policy in Sweden as a case study of tax evasion. We use situational crime prevention principles and insights drawn from situational action theory to construct an analytical framework to assess how changes in tax policy affect individuals' and companies' motivations for tax evasion; first decreasing motivations and then increasing them. The analysis relies mostly on secondary data from reports published by the Swedish Tax Agency. We then make specific predictions regarding future trends in tax evasion. We analyse how buyers and providers of certain services that are taxed might be affected by changes in the tax deduction system and we predict that an increasing percentage of them will consider engaging in tax evasion. We conclude by discussing actions that the tax authorities might take to prevent increases in tax evasion.