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A deep learning-based evolutionary model for short-term wind speed forecasting: A case study of the Lillgrund offshore wind farm
Univ Adelaide, Sch Comp Sci, Optimisat & Logist Grp, Adelaide, SA, Australia..ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9537-9513
Sapienza Univ Rome, Dept Astronaut Elect & Energy Engn DIAEE, Rome, Italy..
Univ Adelaide, Australian Inst Machine Learning, Adelaide, SA, Australia..
Torrens Univ Australia, Ctr Artificial Intelligence Res & Optimizat, Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.;Yonsei Univ, Yonsei Frontier Lab, Seoul, South Korea..
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2021 (English)In: Energy Conversion and Management, ISSN 0196-8904, E-ISSN 1879-2227, Vol. 236, article id 114002Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Due to expanding global environmental issues and growing energy demand, wind power technologies have been studied extensively. Accurate and robust short-term wind speed forecasting is crucial for large-scale integration of wind power generation into the power grid. However, the seasonal and stochastic characteristics of wind speed make forecasting a challenging task. This study adopts a novel hybrid deep learning-based evolutionary approach in an attempt to improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction. This hybrid model consists of a bidirectional long short-term memory neural network, an effective hierarchical evolutionary decomposition technique and an improved generalised normal distribution optimisation algorithm for hyper-parameter tuning. The proposed hybrid approach was trained and tested on data gathered from an offshore wind turbine installed in a Swedish wind farm located in the Baltic Sea with two forecasting horizons: ten-minutes ahead and one-hour ahead. The experimental results indicated that the new approach is superior to six other applied machine learning models and a further seven hybrid models, as measured by seven performance criteria.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2021. Vol. 236, article id 114002
Keywords [en]
Wind speed prediction, Short-term forecasting, Evolutionary algorithms, Generalised normal distribution optimisation, Deep learning models, Hybrid evolutionary deep learning method
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-296386DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2021.114002ISI: 000647768100001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85105006978OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-296386DiVA, id: diva2:1574285
Note

QC 20210628

Available from: 2021-06-28 Created: 2021-06-28 Last updated: 2022-06-25Bibliographically approved

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Bertling, Lina

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