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Data driven modeling in the presence of time series structure:: Improved bounds and effective algorithms
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics. KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Intelligent systems, Decision and Control Systems (Automatic Control).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1521-9091
2022 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis consists of five appended papers devoted to modeling tasks where the desired models are learned from data sets with an underlying time series structure. We develop a statistical methodology for providing efficient estimators and analyzing their non-asymptotic behavior. We further suggest novel algorithmic design techniques for obtaining practical procedures to compute these estimators. Specifically, we study time series models of increasing levels of difficulty. In the first paper, we study change point and clustering systems where the dynamic structure of the time series is entirely encoded in the combinatorial properties of the estimated parameters. We then investigate in the second paper Finite Input Response (FIR) models, which exhibit a time-shifted random design. The obtained results are then generalized in the third paper to linear Hidden Markov models since they are infinite impulse response models with a particular polynomial structure. Finally, in the fourth and fifth papers, we investigate linear time-invariant (LTI) state-space models where the covariates generated along the path of the system are not just dependent but also dependent on the estimated parameter. Hence, the spectral properties of this estimated parameter affect the estimation performance. Throughout this journey, we develop a statistical methodology for deriving statistically efficient estimators. This statistical methodology relays on the idea that efficient estimators should strike a compromise between a signal term and a noise term. The signal term is intimately related to the spectral properties of the design matrix, and the noise term is intimately associated with the covariates multiplication process. To quantify both of these terms and obtain upper bounds for the estimation errors, we develop new concentration and deviation inequalities based on chaining integrals and self-normalized martingale inequalities. We also obtain lower bounds for the estimation errors by extending the Cramér-Rao inequality to a biased estimator and alow-rank Fisher information and provide an information geometric construction of carefully chosen priors on sets of matrices to obtain a van Tree inequality describing the minimax rate for the estimation problem. Finally, on the algorithmic side, we design efficient estimation procedures based on dynamic programming, penalized least squares, and the Ho-Kalman algorithm to take into account the data’s time series structure.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm, Sweden: Kungliga Tekniska högskolan, 2022. , p. 229
Series
TRITA-SCI-FOU ; 2022;12
Keywords [en]
Time series, Non-asymptotic estimation, Minimax, Change point detection, Hidden Markov model, State space model, Least square, Penalized Regression, Random covariance matrix, Concentration inequality, Chaining integral, Self-normalized martingale inequality, Cramér-Rao inequality, van Trees inequality
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Applied and Computational Mathematics, Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-311779ISBN: 978-91-8040-210-1 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-311779DiVA, id: diva2:1655797
Public defence
2022-05-20, F3, lindstedtsvägen 26/28, Stockholm, 14:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 220505

Available from: 2022-05-05 Created: 2022-05-03 Last updated: 2022-06-25Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Bayesian model selection for change point detection and clustering
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Bayesian model selection for change point detection and clustering
2018 (English)In: 35th International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2018, International Machine Learning Society (IMLS) , 2018, p. 5497-5520Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

We address a generalization of change point detection with the purpose of detecting the change locations and the levels of clusters of a piece- wise constant signal. Our approach is to model it as a nonparametric penalized least square model selection on a family of models indexed over the collection of partitions of the design points and propose a computationally efficient algorithm to approximately solve it. Statistically, minimizing such a penalized criterion yields an approximation to the maximum a-posteriori probability (MAP) estimator. The criterion is then ana-lyzed and an oracle inequality is derived using a Gaussian concentration inequality. The oracle inequality is used to derive on one hand conditions for consistency and on the other hand an adaptive upper bound on the expected square risk of the estimator, which statistically motivates our approximation. Finally, we apply our algorithm to simulated data to experimentally validate the statistical guarantees and illustrate its behavior.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
International Machine Learning Society (IMLS), 2018
Series
Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, ISSN 2640-3498
Keywords
Artificial intelligence, Bayesian networks, Least squares approximations, Probability distributions, Bayesian model selection, Change point detection, Computationally efficient, Concentration inequality, Maximum A posteriori probabilities, Penalized least-squares, Piece-wise constants, Statistical guarantee, Learning systems
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-247470 (URN)000683379203057 ()2-s2.0-85057285830 (Scopus ID)
Conference
35th International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2018, 10 July 2018 through 15 July 2018, Stockholm, Sweden
Note

QC 20220922

Part of proceedings: ISBN 978-151086796-3

Available from: 2019-04-05 Created: 2019-04-05 Last updated: 2022-09-22Bibliographically approved
2. Finite impulse response models: A non-asymptotic analysis of the least squares estimator
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Finite impulse response models: A non-asymptotic analysis of the least squares estimator
2021 (English)In: Bernoulli, ISSN 1350-7265, E-ISSN 1573-9759, Vol. 27, no 2, p. 976-1000Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We consider a finite impulse response system with centered independent sub-Gaussian design covariates and noise components that are not necessarily identically distributed. We derive non-asymptotic near-optimal estimation and prediction bounds for the least squares estimator of the parameters. Our results are based on two concentration inequalities on the norm of sums of dependent covariate vectors and on the singular values of their covariance operator that are of independent value on their own and where the dependence arises from the time shift structure of the time series. These results generalize the known bounds for the independent case.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability, 2021
Keywords
Finite impulse response, least squares, non-asymptotic estimation, shifted random vector, random covariance Toeplitz matrix, concentration inequality
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-293397 (URN)10.3150/20-BEJ1262 (DOI)000634567600011 ()2-s2.0-85104247506 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20210423

Available from: 2021-04-23 Created: 2021-04-23 Last updated: 2022-06-25Bibliographically approved

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Mazhar, Othmane

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