Medium-Term Wind Power Forecasting based on Dynamic Self-Attention MechanismShow others and affiliations
2023 (English)In: 2023 IEEE Belgrade PowerTech, PowerTech 2023, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2023Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]
Medium-Term Wind Power Forecasting (MTWPF), with a 7-day forecasting horizon, can provide important support for dispatch plans in the power system and trading strategies in the electricity market. Existing MTWPF methods usually use the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) to map the power generated by wind farms. However, the accuracy of the NWP decreases as the forecasting horizon increases, which reduces the performance of the MTWPF. In this paper, we propose a MTWPF model based on multi-head Dynamic Self-Attention mechanism (DSA-MTWPF), which dynamically adjusts the mapping between NWP and wind power according to the change in forecasting horizon. A case study using operational data from one wind farm in China demonstrates that the DSAM-MTWPF outperforms that of the state-of-the-art MTWPF models.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2023.
Keywords [en]
Dynamic Self-Attention, Medium-Term Wind Power Forecasting, Numerical Weather Prediction
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-336734DOI: 10.1109/PowerTech55446.2023.10202821ISI: 001055072600151Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85169480369OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-336734DiVA, id: diva2:1798557
Conference
2023 IEEE Belgrade PowerTech, PowerTech 2023, Belgrade, Serbia, Jun 25 2023 - Jun 29 2023
Note
Part of ISBN 9781665487788
QC 20230919
2023-09-192023-09-192025-02-01Bibliographically approved