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Beyond Gut Feel: Using Time Series Transformers to Find Investment Gems
Motherbrain, EQT Group, Stockholm, Sweden.
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Computer Science, Software and Computer systems, SCS. Motherbrain, EQT Group, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6559-1521
Motherbrain, EQT Group, Stockholm, Sweden.
Motherbrain, EQT Group, Stockholm, Sweden; QA.tech, Stockholm, Sweden.
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2024 (English)In: Artificial Neural Networks and Machine Learning – ICANN 2024 - 33rd International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, Proceedings, Springer Nature , 2024, p. 373-388Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper addresses the growing application of data-driven approaches within the Private Equity (PE) industry, particularly in sourcing investment targets (i.e., companies) for Venture Capital (VC) and Growth Capital (GC). We present a comprehensive review of the relevant approaches and propose a novel approach leveraging a Transformer-based Multivariate Time Series Classifier (TMTSC) for predicting the success likelihood of any candidate company. The objective of our research is to optimize sourcing performance for VC and GC investments by formally defining the sourcing problem as a multivariate time series classification task. We consecutively introduce the key components of our implementation which collectively contribute to the successful application of TMTSC in VC/GC sourcing: input features, model architecture, optimization target, and investor-centric data processing. Our extensive experiments on two real-world investment tasks, benchmarked towards three popular baselines, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in improving decision making within the VC and GC industry.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature , 2024. p. 373-388
Keywords [en]
Company success prediction, Growth equity, Investment, Multivariate time series, Private equity, Venture capital
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences Economics and Business
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-354663DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-72356-8_25ISI: 001331897800025Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85205307874OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-354663DiVA, id: diva2:1904559
Conference
33rd International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, ICANN 2024, Lugano, Switzerland, September 17-20, 2024
Note

Part of ISBN 9783031723551

QC 20241205

Available from: 2024-10-09 Created: 2024-10-09 Last updated: 2025-12-05Bibliographically approved

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Halvardsson, GustafHerman, Pawel

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