kth.sePublications KTH
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Short-Term Load Forecasting for Electrical Power Distribution Systems Using Enhanced Deep Neural Networks
JU, Jimma Inst Technol, Fac Elect & Comp Engn, Jimma 378, Ethiopia..
Univ South Eastern Norway, Dept Elect Engn IT & Cybernet, N-3901 Porsgrunn, Norway..
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), Electrical Engineering, Electric Power and Energy Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4763-9429
JU, Jimma Inst Technol, Fac Elect & Comp Engn, Jimma 378, Ethiopia..
2024 (English)In: IEEE Access, E-ISSN 2169-3536, Vol. 12, p. 186856-186871Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The rationale for using enhanced Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) in the power distribution system for short-term load forecasting (STLF) originates from a thorough analysis of current trends, the emergence of the state-of-the-art use cases and approaches. STLF plays a crucial role in economic load dispatch, hydrothermal coordination, system security assessment, load shedding, unit commitment, and cost-effective risk management in power systems with renewable energy sources. In this study, we introduce a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), augmented with enhancements inspired by an Efficient and Parallel Genetic Algorithm (EPGA) for the STLF of Jimma town power distribution system. To forecast the load in the short term, the model takes into account wind direction, wind speed, humidity, temperature, season, load history, and peak load due to holidays. The optimal linear combination of inputs for determining daily load is derived using EPGA and data from Ethiopian Electric Utility (EEU). The linearly combined data is then fed into the LSTM model for load prediction. During training, this allows the LSTM model to focus on the pattern of a single time-series data rather than the best combination of many input patterns. The proposed method uses the combination of EPGA and LSTM models for accurate STLF. Thorough experimental analysis indicates that the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) achieved by the EPGA-enhanced LSTM for Jimma town power distribution system STLF is about 43.87. This represents a 7.486% improvement over the prediction obtained using only LSTM model. Additionally, the mean average percentage error (MAPE) for five sample loads used to test the EPGA-enhanced LSTM prediction method further supports the robustness of the proposed method.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2024. Vol. 12, p. 186856-186871
Keywords [en]
Long short term memory, Load modeling, Predictive models, Load forecasting, Data models, Convolutional neural networks, Genetic algorithms, Artificial neural networks, Deep neural networks, long short-term memory, load forecast, short-term load forecast, efficient and parallel genetic algorithm, EPGA enhanced LSTM
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-358494DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3432647ISI: 001380690600030Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85199504685OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-358494DiVA, id: diva2:1929288
Note

QC 20250120

Available from: 2025-01-20 Created: 2025-01-20 Last updated: 2025-01-20Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records

Bertling Tjernberg, Lina

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Bertling Tjernberg, Lina
By organisation
Electric Power and Energy Systems
In the same journal
IEEE Access
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 417 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf